Black Cat Mystery Comics #50 CGC 9.4

[sfilosa]

Just because these boards aren't populated by GA collectors working on runs doesn't mean they're not out there, and in significant numbers. I'd advise forumites to not let these boards and GPA delude them into thinking that they know all the ins and outs of sincere collectors and their major buys/collections (or even the majority of the ins and outs, for that matter).

 

Obviously, I don't mean NOBODY is putting together runs of GA books. But those that are doing it are not buying high-grade copies as the task would be extremely expensive and extremely difficult if not near impossible.

 

There are plenty (and I mean plenty) of SA collectors who put low and mid grade runs of titles together, but that hasn't meant any rise in price for low/mid grade books. There is enough supply to meet the demand. And there is for most titles, enough supply to put together low grade GA runs. It might take longer but it isn't impossible. And those very tough issues are the ones that ALREADY command a PREMIUM.

[Shield]

Just because these boards aren't populated by GA collectors working on runs doesn't mean they're not out there, and in significant numbers. I'd advise forumites to not let these boards and GPA delude them into thinking that they know all the ins and outs of sincere collectors and their major buys/collections (or even the majority of the ins and outs, for that matter).

 

Obviously, I don't mean NOBODY is putting together runs of GA books. But those that are doing it are not buying high-grade copies as the task would be extremely expensive and extremely difficult if not near impossible.

 

There are plenty (and I mean plenty) of SA collectors who put low and mid grade runs of titles together, but that hasn't meant any rise in price for low/mid grade books. There is enough supply to meet the demand. And there is for most titles, enough supply to put together low grade GA runs. It might take longer but it isn't impossible. And those very tough issues are the ones that ALREADY command a PREMIUM.

 

I don't know why you insist on intertwining "grade" and "GA Collectibility". These two concepts are mutually exclusive - most of the GA collectors I know just want VG or better copies, but they do in fact want complete runs of titles. Other than maybe West going for a VF or better Timely run, I don't know of anyone else. To me, true GA collectors are happy for the most part simply to have a solid collectible copy of the book. Most I know don't care about CGC, flipping, or GPA. Your argument goes south IMO when you talk about grade - how many SA collectors collect 9.6 or better only? Probably about the same amount who own Action #1's, 'Tec 27's, Flash #1's, Cap 1's, etc.

[Shield]

Also sfilosa, in my opinion there's a very strong market for mid grade non-key golden age. I would say buyers of such books are what keep food on the table for dealers. Not often do you get the person on the phone who can afford a Batman #1 in VF unrestored, and in that same time frame you'll find twenty collectors searching for a VG copy of Batman #11, which you (as a dealer) paid next to nothing for and can double your money on.

 

How many warehouse finds of golden age runs have there been? Not talking post 1950 stuff, but stuff that survived the war? I don't recall someone unearthing 30 copies of a WWII era or earlier book, but of course I could be wrong here. That, among many other things, is what turns me off about the later issues.

 

Just my .02

[ACME]

Wasn't the statement that started this "GA is dead"? Now it's changed over to low to midgrade GA is dead? Of course low to midgrade nonkeys are dead; they've never been alive!! OS doesn't list record sales of reading copies, and that's why it never appreciates at a decent rate. This is the same for any era, although at least you stand a chance of recouping some $$ in GA. I guess I should've stated that I was referring to the HG area, which to me determines what market is "HOT". Although I figured that would be assumed since I was referring to dealers like JP and PGC, which are not noted for their inventory of low to mid-grade material. As for JP overpaying, my guess is that he's still going to come out O.K. on the deal. Kinda reminds me of when that guy "overpaid" $20k for the Action #1 years ago....

 

Great conversation, please keep this thread going!!

[sfilosa]

I assumed (maybe incorrectly) that we are talking about GA books RISING IN VALUE.

 

To me it doesn't matter if it's HG or Low/Mid-Grade or if it's slabbed or not.

 

To me, I really only see Key and Classic Covers moving up in price at all. Grade is not a factor.

 

I don't see RISING prices on non mainstream publishers REGARDLESS of the GRADE. As a matter of fact, I believe MANY GA books are OVERVALUED in GUIDE even in the HIGH GRADES (which is NOT the Case with most SA/BA books).

 

And unless VALUES are RISING, the HOT MONEY will not be there. The hot money FOLLOWS, it does not LEAD.

 

There will always (at least in my lifetime) be collectors for almost all books, but will there be sufficent demand above supply to justify rising prices, not on many GA books IMO.

[Shield]

If that's what you're assuming, why make comments about putting together golden age runs?

[shrunkenhead]

Agreed. There seem to be some serious contradictions in Sfilosa's argument. First he says that HG gold is too scarce for most people to bother with, and that putting together runs will be impossible. Then he says that percentage wise highgrade gold will outrank silver in the coming years (even with most ga collectors not currently slabbing their books, I still think you're living in a dreamworld if you really believe this). So which is it? Finally, he says that HG gold and mid-grade gold alike (big mistake putting both categories together, I feel) won't increase in $$ value, so what difference does it make.

 

Not to act like an unlicensed shrink here, but this is starting to sound more and more like self-conscious spin in order to justify the costs of putting together a highgrade silver collection.

[shrunkenhead]

Acme, I think you make a good point about JP and his "overpaying." If JP planned on doing some quick GA flips, which I'm guessing was the initial intent, then yes he overpaid as the market is currently in the silver-craze phase of they comic cycle. But the guy is sitting on one of the finest collections of books going. Church copy after church copy, NM key books, fantastic stuff. Clearly JP has a certain pricetag in mind for these books and at present that tag can't be reached, but if JP were to put all these books up for no reserve with heritage he'd hardly end up destitute.

 

If he keeps his books at their current asking prices, some are likely to sell in the coming years as GA HG prices slowly GO UP (sorry Sfilosa). But if he hikes his own asking price by higher and higher multiples to reflect increases in OS, then it's going to be much tougher for the market to catch up with him.

[sfilosa]

Agreed. There seem to be some serious contradictions in Sfilosa's argument. First he says that HG gold is too scarce for most people to bother with, and that putting together runs will be impossible. Then he says that percentage wise highgrade gold will outrank silver in the coming years (even with most ga collectors not currently slabbing their books, I still think you're living in a dreamworld if you really believe this). So which is it? Finally, he says that HG gold and mid-grade gold alike (big mistake putting both categories together, I feel) won't increase in $$ value, so what difference does it make.

 

Not to act like an unlicensed shrink here, but this is starting to sound more and more like self-conscious spin in order to justify the costs of putting together a highgrade silver collection.

 

1) Do you think it is possible to put together nice HG (say VF or better) runs of DC or Timely books? Especially if you need the key issues, you are talking millions.

 

2) Many (but not all) of the nicest pedigree SA collections have been slabbed. That is not true with GA. Of the 18,000 Edgar Church books, only around 2,000 have been slabbed. There are still plenty of HIGHEST GRADED COPIES of GA that haven't been slabbed, and I don't believe that is the case with SA.

 

3) I'm basically saying that high grade or not, I see very little demand for most non mainstream titles. Of course there are a few collectors, but will there be more collectors paying higher and higher prices for these books, I don't think so.

 

4) As I said before, I'm really not sure where the Guide Values come from on most GA stuff, because there are not enough sales. If you buy off of Heritage's site, especially on the Amazing Auctions, you will see many certified CGC books sell for significantly less than guide value.

[shrunkenhead]

If the Church books are your reason for assuming that there are going to be a lot of HG slabs coming out of the woodwork, I'd think again. A ridiculous amount of the Church copies have been restored (a travesty), and everyone knows the woes of slabbing a book only to have it come back a PLOD, Church copy or no.

 

And, quite a lot of upper-midgrade SA and BA sells for less than guide at Heritage too, so I'm not sure where that leaves us. That's why people buy from Heritage. They flood the market with so much material at once, that dealers can scoop up quite a lot of stuff for nice flips at cons or even on ebay.

[shrunkenhead]

I think Timely would be better qualifed to answer your first question than I, but I'd have to say yes, I do think it's possible to get runs in VF, with the right amount of time, patience, effort, money, and networking.

[Shield]

1) Do you think it is possible to put together nice HG (say VF or better) runs of DC or Timely books? Especially if you need the key issues, you are talking millions.

 

Only a TEENY, WEENY, TEENY TINY amount of true golden age collectors F-ING CARE whether or not all the books are VF or better. I'll go out on a limb and say less than 1% care. 99% go after a run or solid copies of their favorite covers. Period.

 

2) Many (but not all) of the nicest pedigree SA collections have been slabbed. That is not true with GA. Of the 18,000 Edgar Church books, only around 2,000 have been slabbed. There are still plenty of HIGHEST GRADED COPIES of GA that haven't been slabbed, and I don't believe that is the case with SA.

 

Boy, you're living in a dream world if you think there isn't quite a bit of silver AND gold left to be discovered. Especially silver. Think of all the baby boomers out there who bought them as kids - they're beginning to retire shortly. How many kids and families are yet to come forward with all that stuff that's been packed away? Lots, my friend, lots.

 

3) I'm basically saying that high grade or not, I see very little demand for most non mainstream titles. Of course there are a few collectors, but will there be more collectors paying higher and higher prices for these books, I don't think so.

 

Why do you keep twisting your words? First it was just the "non-key" issues, now you've homogenized "non-key" with "non-mainstream". Looks like backpeddling to me.

 

 

4) As I said before, I'm really not sure where the Guide Values come from on most GA stuff, because there are not enough sales. If you buy off of Heritage's site, especially on the Amazing Auctions, you will see many certified CGC books sell for significantly less than guide value.

 

 

Also, don't take "guide" for true value of books. It's way, way off on many issues (too low). Look up guide for Pep 22-40 and Archie 1-10 in "good" to "Fine" range. I'll buy as many copies as you can find for 150 percent of guide. Maybe 200.

[sfilosa]

The original post was about a certain Black Cat #50 which has failed to meet reserve again and has been relisted at a lower pirce. My original comment was mostly about the supply of this book (being a Harvey File Copy) and that it's possible that there are a few more out there in very high grade.

 

I think it's great that everyone has different interest in books and what grades are acceptable.

 

I would say that if 50 Classic L.B. Cole covers hit the mark it in VF or higher, I would easily pay well above guide for most of them, So I complete understand a collectors desire to pay more than guide to get the books that really fit into their collecting goals.

 

All I have tried to say is that I don't see significant price increases happening on most GA books over the next decade. I COULD BE WRONG (as I am only stating an opinion). I have set out my logic. BUT ONCE AGAIN, I COULD BE WRONG.

 

I do realize that many Edgar Church books (and other pedigrees) have some restoration. That said, the two biggest COLLECTORS of SILVER-AGE books have almost all of them certified, where as there are still several MAJOR GA collectors who have not. The most expensive COMIC BOOK in the WORLD has not been graded yet.

[*paull*]

I would call those early Pep and Archie books "keys" or at least "desirable".

 

Let's look at the pre-code horror arena... there are probably about fifty books that are too low in guide (classic covers, Mister Mystery, Weird Mysteries, Weird Chills, etc.), while there are many hundreds of non-keys that I would call grossly overvalued in guide.

[sfilosa]

I would call those early Pep and Archie books "keys" or at least "desirable".

 

Let's look at the pre-code horror arena... there are probably about fifty books that are too low in guide (classic covers, Mister Mystery, Weird Mysteries, Weird Chills, etc.), while there are many hundreds of non-keys that I would call grossly overvalued in guide.

 

 

Exactly.

 

And it really doesn't matter about the grade. I'm an Atlas collector, and I pass on purchasing some of the highest graded copies AT GUIDE value, if the cover is rather lame (and many are). And I see these books fail to meet reserve all the time.

[*paull*]

I consider Atlas books to be some of the most overvalued books in guide. I was considering some books at shows because of some Krigstein interior stories, but passed on them because they were $30-$40 for roughly VG copies. Cut the price by 60% and I might be interested.

[precodekeith]

Let's look at the pre-code horror arena... there are many hundreds of non-keys that I would call grossly overvalued in guide.

 

YUP!

 

Overstreet just does NOT have a finger on the pulse, ESPECIALLY in the mid and low grades in this genre! Bob needs to REDUCE these dramatically to reflect the FMV!

 

Case in point: this Mid-Ohio Con. Dealers putting out long boxes of the stuff with G to VG copies of , well... nothing special... they're just "pre-code horror" commons, but priced $40 - $65 - $95 - all the way up to $200 !!! GAG!!! Of course, these books were NOT moving...

[Timely]

I think Timely would be better qualifed to answer your first question than I, but I'd have to say yes, I do think it's possible to get runs in VF, with the right amount of time, patience, effort, money, and networking.

 

Oh, it is definately possible but many collectors run out of one thing or another along the way, usually cash and patience. I was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time to get the runs I got through the years. Finding a major dealer that's trustworthy and accepts TIME PAYMENTS is indespensible!

 

West

[*paull*]

I spoke to a dealer over the weekend who told me that there were a _bunch_ of copies of Black Cat Mystery #50 that were in the Harvey warehouse find. Can anyone confirm this?

[rjpb]

Well there do seem to be alot of high grade copies around. Enough that when I bought mine, what sold me was it didn't have the page tanning that is supposedly common with file copies. That a CGC 9.4 copy of such a classic pre-code horror book had trouble getting 2K on Ebay is a pretty good indication that it is not considered rare in high grade.

 

Still, it's probably not as common as the grossly overvalued Thing #16 - every dealer in America must have a high grade copy in stock.