When will the New Mutants 98 bubble burst? 1 1

[RockMyAmadeus]

New Mutants #98 is the 1st book that I've seen rise in price after the movie was released. Just sayin'

 

 

It happened with Bat books in 1989, but that's the last time it happened.

 

Excellent point. I forgot about Batmania.

 

Captain America 6 shot up after the Winter Soldier movie came out. That was the last movie book to get a big jolt after the movie instead of before it.

 

Please define what you mean by "shot up" and "big jolt."

 

 

From $75 for a CGC 9.8 to over $200 (some sales higher) after the movie hit.

 

There are no sales less than $100 for a CGC 9.8 after Jan 1, 2014, and prior to the movie coming out on April 4 (and that sale was April 1, after the film was in limited release in the US, and wide release internationally.)

 

By June of 2014, the book was back down to a sale of $99, and a $76 sale on Jul 2.

 

There are only six sales after the release of the movie higher than the $175 price set on Jan 20, and to the end of the year, while there are 28 sales lower than that price, again, after the release of the movie.

 

 

[jsilverjanet]

This must be the new math I keep hearing about

[Broke as a Joke]

New Mutants #98 is the 1st book that I've seen rise in price after the movie was released. Just sayin'

 

 

It happened with Bat books in 1989, but that's the last time it happened.

 

Excellent point. I forgot about Batmania.

 

Captain America 6 shot up after the Winter Soldier movie came out. That was the last movie book to get a big jolt after the movie instead of before it.

 

Please define what you mean by "shot up" and "big jolt."

 

 

From $75 for a CGC 9.8 to over $200 (some sales higher) after the movie hit.

 

There are no sales less than $100 for a CGC 9.8 after Jan 1, 2014, and prior to the movie coming out on April 4 (and that sale was April 1, after the film was in limited release in the US, and wide release internationally.)

 

By June of 2014, the book was back down to a sale of $99, and a $76 sale on Jul 2.

 

There are only six sales after the release of the movie higher than the $175 price set on Jan 20, and to the end of the year, while there are 28 sales lower than that price, again, after the release of the movie.

 

 

Does that include the Variant cover? The Variant cover was basically a 50/50 ratio, but the cover with the Winter Soldier on it was higher in demand. I do remember high sales because I sold a copy for $175 after the movie dropped and then watched in awe when other copies were going for over $200.

 

And of course the price came down, but the question was were there books that went up after the movie release. It went up, then it came down.

[BarryAllen]

This is where I got the number of remaining copies (250k printed, after returns leaving 175k-200k left). Admittedly I took the high end... I could re-run the numbers at 175k (or even 150k), but it would't change the picture that much - still huge amount of supply out there on a book already topping CGC census numbers.

 

 

 

Why do people think New Mutants #98 had a "high print run"..."

250k print run....about 175-200k copies (maybe) surviving.

 

 

 

:shrug:

Edited March 3, 2016 by rfoiii

[RockMyAmadeus]

New Mutants #98 is the 1st book that I've seen rise in price after the movie was released. Just sayin'

 

 

It happened with Bat books in 1989, but that's the last time it happened.

 

Excellent point. I forgot about Batmania.

 

Captain America 6 shot up after the Winter Soldier movie came out. That was the last movie book to get a big jolt after the movie instead of before it.

 

Please define what you mean by "shot up" and "big jolt."

 

 

From $75 for a CGC 9.8 to over $200 (some sales higher) after the movie hit.

 

There are no sales less than $100 for a CGC 9.8 after Jan 1, 2014, and prior to the movie coming out on April 4 (and that sale was April 1, after the film was in limited release in the US, and wide release internationally.)

 

By June of 2014, the book was back down to a sale of $99, and a $76 sale on Jul 2.

 

There are only six sales after the release of the movie higher than the $175 price set on Jan 20, and to the end of the year, while there are 28 sales lower than that price, again, after the release of the movie.

 

 

Does that include the Variant cover? The Variant cover was basically a 50/50 ratio, but the cover with the Winter Soldier on it was higher in demand. I do remember high sales because I sold a copy for $175 after the movie dropped and then watched in awe when other copies were going for over $200.

 

And of course the price came down, but the question was were there books that went up after the movie release. It went up, then it came down.

 

The lower prices are mixed right in with the higher prices (see the aforementioned $100 sale.) It doesn't follow that it "shot up" if it also "shot down" at the same time. The reality is that the book didn't "shoot up"...it was all over the map.

 

The variant cover is, indeed, a different story.

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are 9,626 copies of NM 98 in the CGC census.

1 in 10.0

11 in 9.9

2,320 in 9.8

2,828 in 9.6

1,622 in 9.4

899 in 9.2

635 in 9.0

(8,316 or 86.4% in 9.0 and above)

 

If you extrapolate that out to the known 200,000 copies in existence and adjust for a downward bias of 25% for fun that would still leave 116,699 copies in 9.0 or better...

 

Of course I am not accounting for the other two grading companies or resubs, so let's cut that number in half for giggles to hit the bottom and make it 58,349 copies in 9.0 or better.

 

Since the price has been flat for almost two years (excuse me, up 1-2 percent the last 30 days), I am sure the market can sustain that supply (more than 5X the total existing census in just new 9.0+ alone).

 

Big future for this book, huge.

 

You can't extrapolate slabbed grades to the raw population at large like that. It totally discounts selection bias. How many people are going to bother subbing NM 98 in under 9.0? This isn't AF 15, where virtually any copy is worth subbing and therefore has a more accurate representation of how ALL copies are distributed grade-wise. NM 98 is a modern that, personally, I wouldn't bother to sub below 9.4. Lower grade, mid-grade and even lower end high grade copies are never going to be represented the way 9.4+ copies are. The census for that issue is completely skewed and top heavy.

 

This.

[BarryAllen]

There are 9,626 copies of NM 98 in the CGC census.

1 in 10.0

11 in 9.9

2,320 in 9.8

2,828 in 9.6

1,622 in 9.4

899 in 9.2

635 in 9.0

(8,316 or 86.4% in 9.0 and above)

 

If you extrapolate that out to the known 200,000 copies in existence and adjust for a downward bias of 25% for fun that would still leave 116,699 copies in 9.0 or better...

 

Of course I am not accounting for the other two grading companies or resubs, so let's cut that number in half for giggles to hit the bottom and make it 58,349 copies in 9.0 or better.

 

Since the price has been flat for almost two years (excuse me, up 1-2 percent the last 30 days), I am sure the market can sustain that supply (more than 5X the total existing census in just new 9.0+ alone).

 

Big future for this book, huge.

 

You can't extrapolate slabbed grades to the raw population at large like that. It totally discounts selection bias. How many people are going to bother subbing NM 98 in under 9.0? This isn't AF 15, where virtually any copy is worth subbing and therefore has a more accurate representation of how ALL copies are distributed grade-wise. NM 98 is a modern that, personally, I wouldn't bother to sub below 9.4. Lower grade, mid-grade and even lower end high grade copies are never going to be represented the way 9.4+ copies are. The census for that issue is completely skewed and top heavy.

 

I agree with your logic overall, which is why I adjusted down first by 25% and then cut it in half not once, but twice. Cut it in half two more times if you want and you still have a huge excess supply problem looming.

 

Whether the number is 100% accurate there is still an overwhelming number of copies out there and due to the hoarding of this book, a disproportionate number of them will be higher grade (like all 1990's and forward "key" issues).

 

The point is still very valid and relevant.

[VintageComics]

Stop with the theatrics (the smilies),

 

Theatrics? It's a chat forum and I'm showing how confused I am with your leaps of logic. Are you trying to discredit me by accusing me of something not germane to the discussion? How about this one?

 

it has been shown here multiple times that people hoarded this book like crazy and are releasing a copy at a time to maximize their profits. It only takes a few people to manipulate a system - you have plenty experience to know that happens - especially on more modern easily available books.

 

People hoarding books when they were new (25 years ago - that's over 2 decades ago) and accusing people selling using price manipulation now are two completely different things. Do you think hoarders bought these books nearly 3 decades ago keeping their fingers crossed that the book would explode only to slowly release them in the wild today?

 

Or are you saying that people are hoarding them now and releasing them slowly into the wild?

 

You'd be wrong on both accounts - the book sells and it sells quickly. There's no need to release them slowly as they get gobbled up.

 

I have zero experience in price manipulation because I don't do it unless you call waiting to get my price on a product price manipulation. If that is the case you may have come up with a new name for capitalism.

 

I can understand how someone might be able to price manipulate a market where the product is truly rare and desirable but in the case of a book with literally 1000's of unrelated sellers with 10,000's of sale I have no idea how that would be accomplished.

 

As far as pricing goes, there hasn't been a "recent" sale over $1,000 since July of last year with the only other one last year in February. Other than those two, only one other recorded sale hit $1,000 and it was in September of 2014. Prices this year range from $678 to $988 with the 12 month average at $812 and 90 day average at $823 and 30 day average at $838. By my math that makes eBay pricing $200-$300 or more on average (I am not even counting the silly copies listed for $2,000 and up) or +16-30% higher than FMV on average.

 

Technically, you're right. But there was a $988 sale and a $960 sale within the last two weeks...that's $112 and $140 from the $11000 price you cited.

 

I still don't understand your point. The entire concept of capitalism is for a seller to get as much as they can for a product and it has always been the buyer that controls the market price, not the seller.

 

People are free to ask what the want for a product.

Buyers are free to pay what they want for a product.

 

Does the new math mean capitalism = price fixing?

 

As far as rareness being misrepresented, see below to read excerpts from just a few of the eBay descriptions (none of these statements are true - nothing about this book is rare):

 

"One of the rare double signed cgc editions by BOTH creators/inventors of Deadpool."

 

"Only one on ebay like it."

 

"Rare in this grade for a news stand edition"

 

"Making this book a one of a kind item due the rarity of Rob Liefeld sketching on ANYTHING!"

 

"New mutants 98 first appearance of dead pool very rear sighed by Stan Lee I think there is 250 sighed 9.6 in the Cgc cenus book is beautiful looks like a 9.9 easy sharp brand new slab autographed by Stan Lee"

 

"1ST DEADPOOL VANESSA COPYCAT DOMINO NEWSSTAND UPC VARIANT VERY RARE"

 

"1st appearance Deadpool Rare Hot Book"

 

Another tangent. The majority of people spending money on comics know these books are not rare. I don't understand your point. We're talking about New Mutants #98 not variants, Sig Series or individualized copies with something unique about them.

 

You're fixed on a position and trying to prove it rather than just take the data for what it is.

[BarryAllen]

Stop with the theatrics (the smilies),

 

Theatrics? It's a chat forum and I'm showing how confused I am with your leaps of logic. Are you trying to discredit me by accusing me of something not germane to the discussion? How about this one?

 

it has been shown here multiple times that people hoarded this book like crazy and are releasing a copy at a time to maximize their profits. It only takes a few people to manipulate a system - you have plenty experience to know that happens - especially on more modern easily available books.

 

People hoarding books when they were new (25 years ago - that's over 2 decades ago) and accusing people selling using price manipulation now are two completely different things. Do you think hoarders bought these books nearly 3 decades ago keeping their fingers crossed that the book would explode only to slowly release them in the wild today?

 

Or are you saying that people are hoarding them now and releasing them slowly into the wild?

 

You'd be wrong on both accounts - the book sells and it sells quickly. There's no need to release them slowly as they get gobbled up.

 

I have zero experience in price manipulation because I don't do it unless you call waiting to get my price on a product price manipulation. If that is the case you may have come up with a new name for capitalism.

 

I can understand how someone might be able to price manipulate a market where the product is truly rare and desirable but in the case of a book with literally 1000's of unrelated sellers with 10,000's of sale I have no idea how that would be accomplished.

 

As far as pricing goes, there hasn't been a "recent" sale over $1,000 since July of last year with the only other one last year in February. Other than those two, only one other recorded sale hit $1,000 and it was in September of 2014. Prices this year range from $678 to $988 with the 12 month average at $812 and 90 day average at $823 and 30 day average at $838. By my math that makes eBay pricing $200-$300 or more on average (I am not even counting the silly copies listed for $2,000 and up) or +16-30% higher than FMV on average.

 

Technically, you're right. But there was a $988 sale and a $960 sale within the last two weeks...that's $112 and $140 from the $11000 price you cited.

 

I still don't understand your point. The entire concept of capitalism is for a seller to get as much as they can for a product and it has always been the buyer that controls the market price, not the seller.

 

People are free to ask what the want for a product.

Buyers are free to pay what they want for a product.

 

Does the new math mean capitalism = price fixing?

 

As far as rareness being misrepresented, see below to read excerpts from just a few of the eBay descriptions (none of these statements are true - nothing about this book is rare):

 

"One of the rare double signed cgc editions by BOTH creators/inventors of Deadpool."

 

"Only one on ebay like it."

 

"Rare in this grade for a news stand edition"

 

"Making this book a one of a kind item due the rarity of Rob Liefeld sketching on ANYTHING!"

 

"New mutants 98 first appearance of dead pool very rear sighed by Stan Lee I think there is 250 sighed 9.6 in the Cgc cenus book is beautiful looks like a 9.9 easy sharp brand new slab autographed by Stan Lee"

 

"1ST DEADPOOL VANESSA COPYCAT DOMINO NEWSSTAND UPC VARIANT VERY RARE"

 

"1st appearance Deadpool Rare Hot Book"

 

Another tangent. The majority of people spending money on comics know these books are not rare. I don't understand your point. We're talking about New Mutants #98 not variants, Sig Series or individualized copies with something unique about them.

 

You're fixed on a position and trying to prove it rather than just take the data for what it is.

More theatrics, all I am asking you to do is stop with the mocking smilies. It isn't a difficult request.

 

As far as the hoard and resell, many dealers on here have confirmed this. independent collections have confirmed this and the steadily increasing nature of the census (versus and explosion that would happen in your example) relative to number of copies being sold confirms this. People are 100% sitting on multiple copies of this book and selling them a few at a time to maximize profits. Fact.

 

Picking high end outliers versus the average isn't a representation of market dynamics, it is cherry picking data. Are you going to be serious about the data and treat it appropriately or continue to cherry pick the data points you want in an attempt to discredit a my very balanced assessment?

 

To the eBay comments: they are all straight descriptions about the sale of New Mutants 98 on eBay (this includes blue and yellow labels, no variants whatsoever) - I don't get what is hard to understand about the misleading nature of their comments. Yes some are misleading about the signatures themselves (also not rare in the slightest) but many are of blue label books. It is just a sampling and there are numerous others in sold comments and the hundreds that came before them. Sellers are misrepresenting the "rareness" of the book - this is an indisputable fact.

 

Secondarily, you cannot make statements like "The majority of people spending money on comics know these books are not rare." You have zero proof of this and consumer education in market on virtually anything tells the opposite. People tend to believe sellers when they say something is rare and the statement is "plausible." Unless you are an avid collector you have no idea how many copies there are of NM 98, what the census looks like or even that it exists. Your statement is not only unsupportable, it isn't reasonable.

 

Lastly, it cannot be argued that Deadpool is now a cultural phenomena and people all over the world are currently seeking and will be seeking NM 98 as a result (as others have insinuated on here) and then not assume that a large portion of those people would HAVE to be new to comic collecting. People new to comic collecting have no prior knowledge of rareness and are the most subject to being lead falsely astray on rareness, value and other circumstances. It is reasonable to assert that these people are being mislead and that is contributing to the rise in price of a book that is so common (especially in high grade) that it is laughable.

 

Edited March 3, 2016 by rfoiii

[VintageComics]

You're only citing possible supply and not taking into account demand.

 

Since the price has been flat for almost two years (excuse me, up 1-2 percent the last 30 days), I am sure the market can sustain that supply (more than 3-5X the total existing census in just new 9.0+ alone).

 

Big future for this book, huge.

 

And you're using sarcasm to try to make your point.

 

The percentage increase/decrease isn't really relevant because this is a discussion about whether the book is appreciating or depreciating but if you want parse hairs, you are using a small, selective window and it shows how little you know about this book.

 

The book has been rising for years as Deadpool's popularity grew.

 

When I started going to cons regularly in 2003 you didn't see many Deadpool cosplay costumes. That's probably because the kids who grew up reading Deadpool either didn't know about cosplay or weren't old enough to do it yet. But as the years went on, I started seeing more and more Deadpool costumes and by the time you hit the late 2000's it seemed like there was a Deadpool costume in every aisle of a show.

 

I also remember when you could get a copy in 9.8 for $50-100 in the early 2000's and nobody was slabbing this book.

 

Then it became a $200 book, then a $300 book, then a $400 book, then a $450 book. That's when I personally started seeking out raw 9.8 to copies to slab.

 

Then it became a $500-600 book before it went to an average of $800 (and still climbing by the way).

 

Sure the book plateaued for a year, but isn't that true for every market even when it's on it's way up? AF #15, Hulk #1, Marvel #1, Superman #1 have all behaved the same way.

 

Is this what you would describe a flat market?

[BarryAllen]

You're only citing possible supply and not taking into account demand.

 

Since the price has been flat for almost two years (excuse me, up 1-2 percent the last 30 days), I am sure the market can sustain that supply (more than 3-5X the total existing census in just new 9.0+ alone).

 

Big future for this book, huge.

 

And you're using sarcasm to try to make your point.

 

The percentage increase/decrease isn't really relevant because this is a discussion about whether the book is appreciating or depreciating but if you want parse hairs, you are using a small, selective window and it shows how little you know about this book.

 

The book has been rising for years as Deadpool's popularity grew.

 

When I started going to cons regularly in 2003 you didn't see many Deadpool cosplay costumes. That's probably because the kids who grew up reading Deadpool either didn't know about cosplay or weren't old enough to do it yet. But as the years went on, I started seeing more and more Deadpool costumes and by the time you hit the late 2000's it seemed like there was a Deadpool costume in every aisle of a show.

 

I also remember when you could get a copy in 9.8 for $50-100 in the early 2000's and nobody was slabbing this book.

 

Then it became a $200 book, then a $300 book, then a $400 book, then a $450 book. That's when I personally started seeking out raw 9.8 to copies to slab.

 

Then it became a $500-600 book before it went to an average of $800 (and still climbing by the way).

 

Sure the book plateaued for a year, but isn't that true for every market even when it's on it's way up? AF #15, Hulk #1, Marvel #1, Superman #1 have all behaved the same way.

 

Is this what you would describe a flat market?

 

The Demand is the highest it has ever been, yet the Supply is still being constrained. The movie is clearly a success with millions of viewers and the prices are only 1-2% higher than where they were pre movie.

 

How is that not a recipe for disaster when the Supply fully hits the market?

 

Do you really believe that the Demand will grow 2, 3 or even 4 times what it is today? Seems unlikely for the Demand for the comic to truly multiply that many times unless the exposure multiplies by an equal amount and I do not believe it is plausible for you to expect Deadpool 2 to be the highest grossing film of all time (and in the extremely unlikely scenario that it does, it isn't reasonable even that the Demand doubles).

Edited March 3, 2016 by rfoiii

[1950's war comics]

I'll never forget the photo of the dealer who had 500 copies of Marvel two in one #1 laid out on his tables, that dealer is probably still piece-mealing these out one at a time while we speak as not to flood the market, so much more so with dealers and their NM98

[bababooey]

I'll never forget the photo of the dealer who had 500 copies of Marvel two in one #1 laid out on his tables, that dealer is probably still piece-mealing these out one at a time while we speak as not to flood the market, so much more so with dealers and their NM98

"I'll never forget...."

 

the book was Marvel Team Up not MTIO

 

this thread is making me want to slab my raw 9.9

[miraclemet]

Wonder what Foolkiller's 10.0 would go for today....

 

 

( think it would still go for $16k, since the 9.9 market has remianed flat since the 10 was sold, though with the movie attention the odds of reeling in a Hollywood or Asian Whale willing to pay $20k certainly would be up...)

[VintageComics]

As far as the hoard and resell, many dealers on here have confirmed this. independent collections have confirmed this and the steadily increasing nature of the census (versus and explosion that would happen in your example) relative to number of copies being sold confirms this. People are 100% sitting on multiple copies of this book and selling them a few at a time to maximize profits. Fact.

 

I can't comment on this as I have no idea.

 

Picking high end outliers versus the average isn't a representation of market dynamics, it is cherry picking data. Are you going to be serious about the data and treat it appropriately or continue to cherry pick the data points you want in an attempt to discredit a my very balanced assessment?

 

You were the one picking outliers when you are trying to form a position that the book is 'flat' or 'just increasing by 1-2%'.

 

If you're talking about using CGC 9.8 as an example, it's the only market I know closely.

 

But I would suggest that the CGC market as a whole is also not a good example of representing the entire market as most copies changing hands are unslabbed.

 

The only way to understand that market is to experience it and see it either over the counter at a store or at shows, where volume can be translated into buying patterns.

 

Of course, you discredit that because it's obviously biased by dealers who are trying to pump the book. Sorry, gotta do it --->

 

To the eBay comments: they are all straight descriptions about the sale of New Mutants 98 on eBay (this includes blue and yellow labels, no variants whatsoever) - I don't get what is hard to understand about the misleading nature of their comments. Yes some are misleading about the signatures themselves (also not rare in the slightest) but many are of blue label books. It is just a sampling and there are numerous others in sold comments and the hundreds that came before them. Sellers are misrepresenting the "rareness" of the book - this is an indisputable fact.

 

Again, I don't put any value in any of those comments and I don't think many serious buyers do.

 

I roll my eyes when I see stuff like 'rare', 'HTF!', 'LQQK!' etc, but it's a free market - well, relatively free anyway.

 

Are you saying that all of these labels are market manipulation? I don't think many people take them seriously.

 

Secondarily, you cannot make statements like "The majority of people spending money on comics know these books are not rare." You have zero proof of this and consumer education in market on virtually anything tells the opposite. People tend to believe sellers when they say something is rare and the statement is "plausible." Unless you are an avid collector you have no idea how many copies there are of NM 98, what the census looks like or even that it exists. Your statement is not only unsupportable, it isn't reasonable.

 

I think your statement might hold water in 2001 when slabbing started. I don't think it holds water in the internet age any longer.

 

Lastly, it cannot be argued that Deadpool is now a cultural phenomena and people all over the world are currently seeking and will be seeking NM 98 as a result (as others have insinuated on here) and then not assume that a large portion of those people would HAVE to be new to comic collecting. People new to comic collecting have no prior knowledge of rareness and are the most subject to being lead falsely astray on rareness, value and other circumstances. It is reasonable to assert that these people are being mislead and that is contributing to the rise in price of a book that is so common (especially in high grade) that it is laughable.

 

You are the one making laughable assumptions and mixing and overlapping discussion points in an effort to make your point stronger.

 

While most dealers don't travel outside of the US, Canada or England Harley Yee does and he has customers in China, SIngapore, Denmark, Germany, Australia, New Zealand.

 

My last sale of a NM 98 was to someone in Singapore. You tell me if it's a cultural phenomenon all over the world.

[VintageComics]

 

The Demand is the highest it has ever been, yet the Supply is still being constrained. The movie is clearly a success with millions of viewers and the prices are only 1-2% higher than where they were pre movie.

 

How is that not a recipe for disaster when the Supply fully hits the market?

 

Do you really believe that the Demand will grow 2, 3 or even 4 times what it is today? Seems unlikely for the Demand for the comic to truly multiply that many times unless the exposure multiplies by an equal amount and I do not believe it is plausible for you to expect Deadpool 2 to be the highest grossing film of all time (and in the extremely unlikely scenario that it does, it isn't reasonable even that the Demand doubles).

 

Thanks for sidestepping the question and avoiding to answer whether it's a flat market or not.

 

I have no idea what will happen in the future. I'm not talking about the future. I'm talking about now. Deadpool is hot and the book seems to be holding his own.

 

If you want to rehash this entire argument, just use the search function and read about Hulk #181 circa 2003-2007. Does anyone here remember that? There was a discussion nearly every week about how Hulk #181 and 'this can't go on', 'it has to be a bubble' , 'how much higher can it go', etc, etc.

 

In fact, you can actually just cut and paste most of those threads and just substitute 'NM #98' for 'Hulk #181' and it would for all practical purposes be the same discussion all over again.

 

Here's the new boss, same as the old boss.

[BarryAllen]

As far as the hoard and resell, many dealers on here have confirmed this. independent collections have confirmed this and the steadily increasing nature of the census (versus and explosion that would happen in your example) relative to number of copies being sold confirms this. People are 100% sitting on multiple copies of this book and selling them a few at a time to maximize profits. Fact.

 

I can't comment on this as I have no idea.

 

Picking high end outliers versus the average isn't a representation of market dynamics, it is cherry picking data. Are you going to be serious about the data and treat it appropriately or continue to cherry pick the data points you want in an attempt to discredit a my very balanced assessment?

 

You were the one picking outliers when you are trying to form a position that the book is 'flat' or 'just increasing by 1-2%'.

 

If you're talking about using CGC 9.8 as an example, it's the only market I know closely.

 

But I would suggest that the CGC market as a whole is also not a good example of representing the entire market as most copies changing hands are unslabbed.

 

The only way to understand that market is to experience it and see it either over the counter at a store or at shows, where volume can be translated into buying patterns.

 

Of course, you discredit that because it's obviously biased by dealers who are trying to pump the book. Sorry, gotta do it --->

 

To the eBay comments: they are all straight descriptions about the sale of New Mutants 98 on eBay (this includes blue and yellow labels, no variants whatsoever) - I don't get what is hard to understand about the misleading nature of their comments. Yes some are misleading about the signatures themselves (also not rare in the slightest) but many are of blue label books. It is just a sampling and there are numerous others in sold comments and the hundreds that came before them. Sellers are misrepresenting the "rareness" of the book - this is an indisputable fact.

 

Again, I don't put any value in any of those comments and I don't think many serious buyers do.

 

I roll my eyes when I see stuff like 'rare', 'HTF!', 'LQQK!' etc, but it's a free market - well, relatively free anyway.

 

Are you saying that all of these labels are market manipulation? I don't think many people take them seriously.

 

Secondarily, you cannot make statements like "The majority of people spending money on comics know these books are not rare." You have zero proof of this and consumer education in market on virtually anything tells the opposite. People tend to believe sellers when they say something is rare and the statement is "plausible." Unless you are an avid collector you have no idea how many copies there are of NM 98, what the census looks like or even that it exists. Your statement is not only unsupportable, it isn't reasonable.

 

I think your statement might hold water in 2001 when slabbing started. I don't think it holds water in the internet age any longer.

 

Lastly, it cannot be argued that Deadpool is now a cultural phenomena and people all over the world are currently seeking and will be seeking NM 98 as a result (as others have insinuated on here) and then not assume that a large portion of those people would HAVE to be new to comic collecting. People new to comic collecting have no prior knowledge of rareness and are the most subject to being lead falsely astray on rareness, value and other circumstances. It is reasonable to assert that these people are being mislead and that is contributing to the rise in price of a book that is so common (especially in high grade) that it is laughable.

 

You are the one making laughable assumptions and mixing and overlapping discussion points in an effort to make your point stronger.

 

While most dealers don't travel outside of the US, Canada or England Harley Yee does and he has customers in China, SIngapore, Denmark, Germany, Australia, New Zealand.

 

My last sale of a NM 98 was to someone in Singapore. You tell me if it's a cultural phenomenon all over the world.

 

I don't have any ability to track or verify sales by independent dealers. Don't mix me with others that dismiss it complete, as of course I understand these have value, but I am unsure as how to quantify them in any capacity. All I know is that when I approach dealers on the prices of books as commonly traded as this, prices are usually similar to GPA or eBay auctions. :shrug:

 

I didn't quote an outlier on data, I used YOUR example of the last 30 day average versus the 90 day average. I also provided a simple exercise to show that almost all other grades were down in the 90 day average, to which you dismissed because you "only follow 9.8 sales." You can do whatever you want, but my analysis and presentation of the data has been thorough and balanced.

 

Side note - if you can make comments on the selling of books from your experience as a dealer as submittable evidence, than I am able to submit similar testimony on the naiveté of new comic buyers (and new buyers in general) in the market. Why is your opinion and experience unassailable, but mine "doesn't hold water." If someone doesn't know GPA or the census exists (both membership services), how would they gain this information? My experience is that eager fans are willing to pay prices when dealers provide them with plausible stories on the "rarity" of the item (I cited the eBay description as an example). These are common time-tested selling tactics used to close buyers for decades - I am not exactly reaching or reinventing the wheel here. Particularly emphasized by the fact that people from other parts of the world are now buying - they are far less informed and far more impressionable due to the historic, cultural and market dynamic knowledge gaps.

 

Honestly, I am not sure why you are arguing with me. Everything I am presenting is very reasonable.

[BarryAllen]

 

The Demand is the highest it has ever been, yet the Supply is still being constrained. The movie is clearly a success with millions of viewers and the prices are only 1-2% higher than where they were pre movie.

 

How is that not a recipe for disaster when the Supply fully hits the market?

 

Do you really believe that the Demand will grow 2, 3 or even 4 times what it is today? Seems unlikely for the Demand for the comic to truly multiply that many times unless the exposure multiplies by an equal amount and I do not believe it is plausible for you to expect Deadpool 2 to be the highest grossing film of all time (and in the extremely unlikely scenario that it does, it isn't reasonable even that the Demand doubles).

 

Thanks for sidestepping the question and avoiding to answer whether it's a flat market or not.

 

I have no idea what will happen in the future. I'm not talking about the future. I'm talking about now. Deadpool is hot and the book seems to be holding his own.

 

If you want to rehash this entire argument, just use the search function and read about Hulk #181 circa 2003-2007. Does anyone here remember that? There was a discussion nearly every week about how Hulk #181 and 'this can't go on', 'it has to be a bubble' , 'how much higher can it go', etc, etc.

 

In fact, you can actually just cut and paste most of those threads and just substitute 'NM #98' for 'Hulk #181' and it would for all practical purposes be the same discussion all over again.

 

Here's the new boss, same as the old boss.

 

I didn't side step the question, you started the tangent line of discussion and I chose not to follow it. I apologize, but that is my prerogative.

 

As far as comparing Wolverine and Deadpool, feel free to do as you like. However, using illogical success stories of a small group of other examples to justify that lightning will in fact strike twice, is not a strong argument. Everyone always goes to the "it happened to x, why can't it happen to y?" If that really happened in any type of frequency there wouldn't be examples for you to use as inspirational argument support. It is implausible, for a variety of reasons which have been extensively discussed in this thread numerous times. Deadpool, in every sense of the comparison, is not Wolverine.

Edited March 3, 2016 by rfoiii

[Broke as a Joke]

"2,320 in 9.8" yeah...that is testament to any book from that period. They are out there.

 

How many Hulk 181 in 9.8 are on the census now?

[VintageComics]

I don't have any ability to track or verify sales by independent dealers. Don't mix me with others that dismiss it complete, as of course I understand these have value, but I am unsure as how to quantify them in any capacity. All I know is that when I approach dealers on the prices of books as commonly traded as this, prices are usually similar to GPA or eBay auctions. :shrug:

 

I actually did mix you up because I was fairly certain that earlier on in another discussion you discredited dealer's input completely because you felt that they were biased and therefore not trustworthy. I think it was the Hulk #1 discussions last year.

 

So what if dealers price their books at GPA or eBay auctions. I still don't understand why you feel that is a negative thing?

 

I didn't quote an outlier on data, I used YOUR example of the last 30 day average versus the 90 day average. I also provided a simple exercise to show that almost all other grades were down in the 90 day average, to which you dismissed because you "only follow 9.8 sales." You can do whatever you want, but my analysis and presentation of the data has been thorough and balanced.

 

Fair enough. And my response to that was, I'd love to see price averages in all grades pre and post Feb 12th.

 

Side note - if you can make comments on the selling of books from your experience as a dealer as submittable evidence, than I am able to submit similar testimony on the naiveté of new comic buyers (and new buyers in general) in the market. Why is your opinion and experience unassailable, but mine "doesn't hold water." If someone doesn't know GPA or the census exists (both membership services), how would they gain this information? My experience is that eager fans are willing to pay prices when dealers provide them with plausible stories on the "rarity" of the item (I cited the eBay description as an example). These are common time-tested selling tactics used to close buyers for decades - I am not exactly reaching or reinventing the wheel here. Particularly emphasized by the fact that people from other parts of the world are now buying - they are far less informed and far more impressionable due to the historic, cultural and market dynamic knowledge gaps.

 

Non-educated buyers have so much more information at their fingertips than I did when I stepped back in the water after a blackout in the 90's. I got back in just as CGC was starting, eBay was still relatively new and the census wasn't established.

 

It's only in towards the end of the last decade that I realized that I could literally 'Google' anything for an answer. Youngin's were doing it but I wasn't and I always though to myself 'dayum, that was a quick response by that board member - how did he know that?'

 

Now we are living in an age where literally every - no, any piece of information you want is searchable, and young people (in their 30's and younger - boy I'm showing my age when I consider 30 young) know this. The facade is fading fast.

 

Sure there are going to be information or market dynamic knowledge gaps out there, but just as you have dishonest business practices, you are also going to have fair dealers who don't rip people off. I could have held out for $900 to the buyer in Singapore but I didn't. I sold for below GPA average.

 

Honestly, I am not sure why you are arguing with me. Everything I am presenting is very reasonable.

 

 

It's gotta be just a lack of chemistry between us. I get that with some people.

 

I wasn't really arguing with you as much as trying to paint a side to the picture that your numbers weren't showing.