OAAW 83's potential to be a top 5 SA key?

[MusterMark]

RMA: Oh wow, that was REALLY FUN to read!!! (thumbs u

[RockMyAmadeus]

Now that is a great post. And yes, I actually read all of it

 

I need an editor. I actually said "so we arrived at the 20th century"

 

 

Fixed.

 

[Gatsby77]

Yeah, well done, RMA.

 

I'd like to add that the difference between 1992 (pre-Internet) and 2007 (post-internet) could be seen in the differing velocity of Superman 75 vs. Captain America 25.

 

In my neighborhood (suburban Philly) in Nov.-Dec. 1992, Superman 75's price changed by the day, and...for a few scant days, by the hour. But it eventually settled out at ~$40, before falling slowly, over the next 20 years, to a current retail value of more like--what? $10.

 

Captain America 25 was the exact same, but happened at much greater velocity. It sold out within hours, and went to $25, then $40, then $60.

 

But, like Superman 75, it was (by far) the most-ordered book of the month. It skyrocketed and crashed so fast that people who put it up for $50 BINs or 24-hour auctions cashed out, while those who put it up for a full 9-day eBay auction saw it sell for as little as $15.

 

I bought my two copies for cover price at a LCS via a reorder three weeks later.

 

The difference was in the peer-to-peer distribution of eBay and the instant access to near-real-time information. Totally different market than what had existed in 1993.

[Jeffro.]

Now that is a great post. And yes, I actually read all of it

 

I need an editor. I actually said "so we arrived at the 20th century"

 

 

Fixed.

 

 

I read this post

[BarryAllen]

There are hundreds (if not thousands) of conversations on this site where people claim the guide is not a good indicator of value.

 

It can't wrong all the time, right all the time and still be legitimate. Heck, one of the main points of this thread has been how OOAW 83 was not included in the top 20, but should have been... People can't have it both ways, pick and choose which data is accurate and then decide it is still legitimate. I call shenanigans.

 

Ultimately it comes down to how the pricing is created. From how it has been explained to me, it is a bunch of people (and by people I mean investors in the guide via advertising or other and various forms of comic sellers) sitting in a room and discussing what comic values should be and coming to some alignment. Ignoring the obvious conflict of interest in that arrangement, I have also read that a number of other dealers have submitted reams of data from actual sales that largely goes ignored.

 

So no it isn't legitimate if: it isn't consistent, isn't created without a conflict of interest and doesn't incorporate broader results of actual sales. Lack of another substitute to help with pricing doesn't make it accurate.

 

 

That's the first thing you've posted here that I mostly disagree with.

 

 

The reason OPG is relevant is not because the prices aren't "accurate." It's true, the prices aren't accurate; rarely do books sell for what they're priced at in the OPG.

 

But...

 

It is consistent in its inaccuracy, and that is its greatest strength.

 

Before 1993-4, essentially everything sold for what the OPG priced it at. The hobby was small enough, without the network of instant info, that it was a good indicator not only of what people WERE paying, but what they would be WILLING to pay (which is often a far, far, FAR more important factor in commerce.)

 

Say it's 1987. If I want an X-Men #1...and there's a mid-grade-ish copy sitting in a dealer case for $300...I may say "hmm...I want it, but I don't know if it's worth $300. That's what the OPG says it's worth, but I just don't know..."

 

Then, you come back the next day, or the next week, or whatever, and it's gone. You inquire, and you find out your friend, Steve, bought it for $300.

 

Now, to you, the $300 price has been legitimized in your mind, because someone else...and more importantly, someone you know...thought it was worth $300. They confirmed the value of the book to you.

 

Now, you will be much, much more WILLING to buy the next comparable copy that comes along for $300, because you have a basis of value for it.

 

That's how prices go up, and how the market has operated since, essentially, the 60's.

 

Now, however, it's 1993, and it's a nuthouse. Books are selling for unheard of prices, and the market is moving far too fast for ANY price guide to keep current. Nobody, not Wizard, not the Updates, nothing is able to keep up with the market and demand for comics, both new and old. Books that are released one day are $50 by the end of that day, and $100 by the weekend (Superman #75.)

 

No one can keep track of that, so....they stopped trying, and simply decided what their prices would be.

 

Then, the great collapse of 94-96 came, which trickled down to the entire industry by 1999-2001. And, in 1999-2001, you could get almost anything for practically nothing. I bought a 9.2ish TMNT #1 first print for $66 shipped on eBay in March or April of 1999. Fantasy #15s in VG could be had for less than $1,000 (yes, less than $1,000.) Avengers #1? How about $300 for a mid-grade. FF #1? How's about $700 for a VG? Showcase #22? $500 for a solid F/VF. X-Men #94? A NM copy would only set you back $150 or so, if that.

 

But, Bob Overstreet wasn't prepared for this, and wouldn't react, because it was foreign territory to him. Yes, the market had receded...a bit...in the early 80's, but in his entire collecting experience, things had NEVER contracted the way they did in the late 90's, ever. Oh, sure, people were still paying a premium for the ultra high grade, and the GA keys, but everything else was dumpsville. So...what to do?

 

One of the first post-crash things that OPG did was SLASH the prices for Fine and Good (before there was VG, VF, VF/NM, etc.) From the 1997 to the 1998 OPG, the prices for "NM" stayed fairly static...but the prices for everything below took a massive hit....massively slashed...and, since it wasn't the "top grade' value, people hardly noticed. Before CGC, of course, was the bad old days, and EVERYTHING was priced at the "NM" price (yes, I exaggerate, but not by much.)

 

But that wasn't enough, so...for the first time in OPG history, Bob slowly cut prices by percentages on everything...slowly, slowly, slowly, year after year. 1% here, 2% there, 5% over here. Some stuff went up, but a lot of stuff went down, as it should have, between 1997 and 2005.

 

Of course, what happened in between? The internet. And, for the first time in history, collectors could easily sell TO EACH OTHER, cutting out the catalog dealers, the retailers, the con dealers, etc. It was a revelation, and it combined with the crash to drive prices down, down, down.

 

So we arrived at the 21st century, with the comics market at its lowest point ever...new books struggled to sell 100,000 direct copies, the newsstand was on a death march, and prices were at all time lows.

 

Overstreet doesn't react, because now, he can't. He's created a guide that no longer reflects what is, because it cannot. The monopoly on selling comics that dealers had since the 60's is gone, the market has crashed, and everyone and their mother could sell comics to everyone else and THEIR mothers. And, once the demand was gone...the prices fell.

 

OPG soldiers on. However, all hope is not lost. A savior for the industry comes out of the blue, from a hitherto fairly unconnected source: movies. It starts with Spiderman in 2002 (X-Men in 2000 did virtually nothing.)

 

Actually, it started in 1989 with Batman, but that didn't last. It was like EC fandom in the 50's, the first really organized collectors, which fizzled after EC was forced to shut it down.

 

But Spidey comes out in 2002, and the public is starved for superheroes...and demand returns. Slowly, and limited to Spidey stuff, but it returns. People start looking for comics again.

 

Then, we start to have "events" that bring in new readers...Identity Crisis...Civil War....death of Cap....and Spiderman 2....and a few non-Superhero comic movies get made, that capture people's interests...From Hell....League of Extraordinary Gents...then more capes, like X-Men 2, and Batman Begins...

 

Then. 2008 happens. And like a thunderclap, The Dark Knight and Iron Man open the floodgates, the dam bursts, and for the first time in a decade and a half, comic books are cool again! And one after another, the hits keep coming...Wolverine, Avengers, Thor, Iron Man 2, Man of Steel, Thor 2, Hulk (the Norton version)...and the market is absolutely in hysteria not seen in years.

 

What does all of this have to do with the OPG's relevance?

 

Much. See, while OPG refused to slash prices where they should have been, he maintained a "ceiling" value, and the prices in the OPG stopped being looked at as the starting price (as they had been from 1970-1995-ish) and started being looked at as the STOPPING price. "Ok, what's OPG on a VG/F Batman #232? Ok, how about 25% off of that?"

 

And that scenario got repeated over and over and over again. The OPG is inaccurate...but it has been CONSISTENT in its inaccuracy, to the point where I can look up a price, do a quick mental figuring, and come up with a reasonable FMV for just about anything...and I don't have to memorize the entire guide to do it (there was a time, in the early 90's, when I could quote you any price, for any book, in the Updates...when NM was the only price listed, but that was still several thousand prices.)

 

And now....we're starting to see demand reach the point where the prices in the OPG are, for the first time in 2 decades, starting to become the actual prices that the market is willing to pay!

 

I've used the OPG for 25 years now, and I still use it to form a "baseline value." Granted, that baseline value is now the high-end retail price, what someone who isn't savvy would expect to pay at a store, but still...I can look at it and see a Challengers of the Unknown #7 in VG and know if $75 is a fair price for it or not...and here's where I circle back to the point I made at the very beginning: so can everyone else.

 

And, if I know what everyone else is willing to pay, I can know what I want to pay. Seems counterintuitive at times, but that's really how it works. Don't believe me...?

 

Then why does everything have a price tag on it? Why can't people just pick merchandise out, walk up to the merchant (or his/her representative), and say "I'll pay you $15 for this shirt"? You may say "well, it's obviously to save time!"...not so. It's so that people know what everyone else expects and is expected to pay for the same item.

 

If a book is marked at $24.95...then I know that most people will expect to pay $24.95 for it, even if they never actually pay $24.95. "Wha?? How does THAT work, RMA???" Simple. You see the price tag, and you say...ooo...I'm getting a deal if I buy it from Amazon for 40% off!...not *really* stopping to think, on a deeper conscious level, that EVERYONE gets that same price. No, to you, the "price marked" is what it's "worth", because that's what the "average Joe" off the street has to pay, and that's what the retailer wants you to *think* it is worth.

 

And that's how markets work.

 

Same with the OPG. If a Spiderman #14 has a VG value of $476, then I "know" that, somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist, and doesn't actually buy a VG Spidey #14 at that price.) Whether someone actually does or not doesn't matter...the fact is, SOMEONE (even if it's only the people who work for Overstreet) thinks that book has a retail value of $476, which means that I can safely pay $350 for it, and not get burned, because it's really only worth $25.

 

And that is why the OPG is still relevant.

 

 

 

 

Great post.

 

At the core of your assertion is that the OPG is relevant because it provides a reference point for others to gauge against. I think it is fair that it does that quite well; I just don't agree that is a good thing.

 

What I think we continue to not address is the usage of the guide arbitrarily to assign value at any given point in time. Essentially, to your post, someone can say that want more or less than guide value and dismiss the price listed as "inaccurate." Since there is a reference point a person can then judge the value versus that reference and decide on a purchase. But since we know the reference point is not based on actual market sales, the transaction at that point in time is not representative of a fair price to one party or the other. In this case they have been given a false sense of security in their purchase/sale based on incorrect data. You say this is good (I think, feel free to correct me), I say this is bad.

 

 

Not sure how the OPG helps anyone in a world where real market sales data exists and the computing power to compile it simply is not being taken advantage of.

 

 

 

 

I do want to thank you for your well thought post and really appreciate the history lesson. I found it very enjoyable to read.

 

 

[Aman619]

its not a matter of computing power as we run up against in all discussions of the limited usefulness of GPA. The values can be computed easily. The real problem is the lack of transparency in the comics market. MOST comics sales are private and not shared.

 

 

so absent a forced sharing of every single sale that occurs, NO amount of computing power will yield a list of values any more accurate than Overstreet. You could then argue that with 40 years of "anecdotal" data and experience behind it, that the Guide is more in tune with the market AS A WHOLE than any of the other pricing tools out there.

 

Yes, yes, we all know it breaks down for slabbed 9.6s and 9.8s and is too high on older slow titles, and too high on previously hot books…. but jeez, he lists EVERY freaking book ever published! And quotes a value based on previous values and dealer input and just plain inertia… and guesswork.

 

not perfect. So sure, we can devise a perfect system based on real time data. But if dealers etc will not share their sales (as Bob Storms argued recently stating that his sales is proprietary), it can't work.

 

[BarryAllen]

I agree, dealers refusing to share data is an issue. Especially when they are so happy to give their "opinions" as advisors and attempt to control pricing via private conversations.

 

 

 

Change happens when people are unhappy about the status quo and speak out.

 

Just because some people are willing to accept it doesn't mean I or anyone else should.

[MrBedrock]

I agree, dealers refusing to share data is an issue. Especially when they are so happy to give their "opinions" as advisors and attempt to control pricing via private conversations.

As an advisor I can tell you that what we contribute is completely opinion. Each year we are sent a questionnaire asking for very generalized data. This year's list includes things like "suggestions for pricing spreads" broken down by ages, "which prices should go up?", "which prices should go down?", and some specific pricing input on only the ultra key books from each time period. I do not think the Overstreet folks have had a face to face meeting with any group of advisors in a number of years (the last I can remember was around '97 or so). The Overstreet people are reading the the advisor questionnaires as well as GPA and other information sources and then adjust their numbers in relation to all of that input. It is still the same basic reflection of the marketplace that it has always been, but now they also have more sources at their disposal.

[H0RR0RSH0W]

I have read every single post of this thread so far and it is utterly FASCINATING.

[BarryAllen]

I agree, dealers refusing to share data is an issue. Especially when they are so happy to give their "opinions" as advisors and attempt to control pricing via private conversations.

As an advisor I can tell you that what we contribute is completely opinion. Each year we are sent a questionnaire asking for very generalized data. This year's list includes things like "suggestions for pricing spreads" broken down by ages, "which prices should go up?", "which prices should go down?", and some specific pricing input on only the ultra key books from each time period. I do not think the Overstreet folks have had a face to face meeting with any group of advisors in a number of years (the last I can remember was around '97 or so). The Overstreet people are reading the the advisor questionnaires as well as GPA and other information sources and then adjust their numbers in relation to all of that input. It is still the same basic reflection of the marketplace that it has always been, but now they also have more sources at their disposal.

 

It has been well publicized that OPG does not take into account market sales data in any discernible quantities. Is that not a factual account?

 

I am not sure how the questions they are asking is helpful?

 

How would it not be better for advisors to send their sales data by book by grade over the course of the past year and then have them compile the data to create the pricing guidelines? Even if every book doesn't exchange hands in a given year, the strides made on the books sold would be leaps and bounds over the current process.

 

What you explained as the process gives me even less confidence in the information then before...

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Great post.

 

At the core of your assertion is that the OPG is relevant because it provides a reference point for others to gauge against. I think it is fair that it does that quite well; I just don't agree that is a good thing.

 

What I think we continue to not address is the usage of the guide arbitrarily to assign value at any given point in time. Essentially, to your post, someone can say that want more or less than guide value and dismiss the price listed as "inaccurate." Since there is a reference point a person can then judge the value versus that reference and decide on a purchase. But since we know the reference point is not based on actual market sales, the transaction at that point in time is not representative of a fair price to one party or the other. In this case they have been given a false sense of security in their purchase/sale based on incorrect data. You say this is good (I think, feel free to correct me), I say this is bad.

 

But it really depends on your perspective. If the OPG is being used, independently of actual sales prices, to establish A price, if not the price that OPG states, then it is still establishing a value, is it not? In this case, it's a "discount off of OPG" value, but the OPG was still the determining factor.

 

So, it become the chicken or the egg argument: are actual market prices being achieved because of the influence of the OPG, or are the OPG prices simply a reaction to the market, independently of OPG?

 

Say, in your analysis, someone pays $100 for VG Spiderman #10 because the OPG says it's worth $200 in VG. $200 is a false price, right? But it WAS used to establish some sort of baseline value, and the buyer agreed that $100 was a reasonable price to pay.

 

Now, say the buyer has to sell. Some unforeseen circumstance, whatever. The buyer discovers, to his dismay, that Spiderman #10 in VG is only worth $10 on the open market. So, instead of taking such a huge loss, and because $10 won't really help him, he just decides to keep it, and deal with the situation in another way, because that $100 was REAL, it actually happened, so to that person, that book is still worth $100.

 

But, see, in reality, that scenario doesn't exist. There is almost nothing in the OPG that is only worth 5% of what the OPG reports it to be worth. I looked up Spidey #10 (not a key by any means) in VG in my 2010 OPG, and it's $200. Completed listings on eBay show a raw value for VG of about $100, and GPA has 4.0s averaging $190 over 10 sales in the last 12 months.

 

So, and believe me, this scenario is repeated throughout, this wasn't a case of someone getting royally screwed because they relied on the "false data" from OPG. It is, as I said, its consistency, rather than its accuracy, that makes it valuable. And, it IS based on actual market reports...at least, theoretically. There is a quasi-legitimate relationship between actual market reports and OPG values that isn't non-existent. If that seems vague...well, the way the market works is vague; it's a living, breathing organism that is literally composed of millions of individual interactions, all at the same time, every day. Tough to nail down, but broad patterns CAN be seen.

 

As Aman said, the computing ability for these sales simply doesn't, and cannot, exist. There are just too many factors involved for that to work. Even GPA, which is as close as it can come, has severe limitations.

I do want to thank you for your well thought post and really appreciate the history lesson. I found it very enjoyable to read.

 

 

Thanks. I love the history of the hobby and the medium very much.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I agree, dealers refusing to share data is an issue. Especially when they are so happy to give their "opinions" as advisors and attempt to control pricing via private conversations.

 

 

 

Change happens when people are unhappy about the status quo and speak Just because some people are willing to accept it doesn't mean I or anyone else should.

 

 

Ah, but it's not as clearcut as that. I am not an advisor, nor have I ever been asked to be one (CURSES!), but I know quite a few advisors, and have talked to them over the years at length about all of this.

 

The days where one person's opinion...even Bob Overstreet's...about the value of a particular book, or series, or run, has a great effect on that book, series, run, are long gone. Ok, sure, maybe Bob fudged data in the 70's when he was still actively collecting. Stuff would be low in the guide, he'd find it, buy it, and VOILA! Next year, it magically raised in price.

 

But that hasn't happened in decades, nor, with all the people involved, could it. The ability to collude on prices just doesn't make practical sense, in this era of instant sales records and data.

 

If some advisor was to come along and say "listen! I've been selling Strawberry Shortcake #6 for $1,000 a copy, you HAVE to hike it in the guide!"...first, the dealer would probably have to point to external sales data to provide some evidence of this, and second, would anybody even notice such a spike? Sure, eventually someone would, but it would be assumed to be a typo, because the public sales data simply doesn't exist.

 

In this day, the words "trust, but verify" are appropriate. The OPG can be generally trusted, and if you have questions, verify. It takes literally seconds.

 

The collusion you're talking about really isn't possible anymore, at least under these circumstances. The wonderful thing about free markets is that no one person, or even group of people, can control it, at least for very long. When people with power TRY...that's when we run into problems.

[BarryAllen]

While I definitely can appreciate the positioning of your arguments, I do not agree on how the interpretation of the guide plays out in real life or the sales resulting from its use. I am not advocating that guide prices include collusion (or at least not on all accounts) but I do question the creation and maintenance of any price in the guide. There is far too information hoarding and suspicious behavior to feel good about the current state of the hobby beyond the transparency of eBay or public auction results (no need to point out the problems with these as well). I also disagree about the state of technology and its ability to consolidate huge amounts of data, but that really is a moot point since the needed inputs are sitting in the hands of people who don't want to share.

 

 

However, I know I cannot keep up with your knowledge or your ability to create sheer walls of text that make me want to curl up in a ball and cry.

 

 

Realistically, I don't completely think you are wrong either but I am just going to propose to agree to disagree at the end of the day.

[RockMyAmadeus]

While I definitely can appreciate the positioning of your arguments, I do not agree on how the interpretation of the guide plays out in real life or the sales resulting from its use. I am not advocating that guide prices include collusion (or at least not on all accounts) but I do question the creation and maintenance of any price in the guide. There is far too information hoarding and suspicious behavior to feel good about the current state of the hobby beyond the transparency of eBay or public auction results. I also disagree about the state of technology and its ability to consolidate huge amounts of data, but that really is a moot point since the needed inputs are sitting in the hands of people who don't want to share.

 

In a few words: the OPG is flawed, perhaps badly so, but there is beauty in the consistency of its flaws, if one can look.

 

However, I know I cannot keep up with your knowledge or your ability to create sheer walls of text that make me want to curl up in a ball and cry.

 

Awwww....

 

 

 

Realistically, I don't completely think you are wrong either but I am just going to propose to agree to disagree at the end of the day.

 

Okey doke! It's a never ending discussion. It's not the first time, and it won't be the last.

[BarryAllen]

While I definitely can appreciate the positioning of your arguments, I do not agree on how the interpretation of the guide plays out in real life or the sales resulting from its use. I am not advocating that guide prices include collusion (or at least not on all accounts) but I do question the creation and maintenance of any price in the guide. There is far too information hoarding and suspicious behavior to feel good about the current state of the hobby beyond the transparency of eBay or public auction results. I also disagree about the state of technology and its ability to consolidate huge amounts of data, but that really is a moot point since the needed inputs are sitting in the hands of people who don't want to share.

 

In a few words: the OPG is flawed, perhaps badly so, but there is beauty in the consistency of its flaws, if one can look.

 

However, I know I cannot keep up with your knowledge or your ability to create sheer walls of text that make me want to curl up in a ball and cry.

 

Awwww....

 

 

 

Realistically, I don't completely think you are wrong either but I am just going to propose to agree to disagree at the end of the day.

 

Okey doke! It's a never ending discussion. It's not the first time, and it won't be the last.

 

Coolio! (thumbs u

 

 

PS - I only cried a little.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I don't think there's a single post of mine on these boards that is longer than an average Wall Street Journal editorial...

 

 

[tth2]

if this book is so valuable, what would the 9.0 copy of OAAW 83 sell for today?

 

My guess is the 9.0 would sell for $25K-$30K.

The owner has turned down $30K for it without a hint of consideration.

Yes, but isn't that mostly because the owner simply never sells anything?

[tth2]

There are hundreds (if not thousands) of conversations on this site where people claim the guide is not a good indicator of value.

 

It can't wrong all the time, right all the time and still be legitimate. Heck, one of the main points of this thread has been how OOAW 83 was not included in the top 20, but should have been... People can't have it both ways, pick and choose which data is accurate and then decide it is still legitimate. I call shenanigans.

 

Ultimately it comes down to how the pricing is created. From how it has been explained to me, it is a bunch of people (and by people I mean investors in the guide via advertising or other and various forms of comic sellers) sitting in a room and discussing what comic values should be and coming to some alignment. Ignoring the obvious conflict of interest in that arrangement, I have also read that a number of other dealers have submitted reams of data from actual sales that largely goes ignored.

 

So no it isn't legitimate if: it isn't consistent, isn't created without a conflict of interest and doesn't incorporate broader results of actual sales. Lack of another substitute to help with pricing doesn't make it accurate.

 

That's the first thing you've posted here that I mostly disagree with.

 

 

The reason OPG is relevant is not because the prices aren't "accurate." It's true, the prices aren't accurate; rarely do books sell for what they're priced at in the OPG.

 

But...

 

It is consistent in its inaccuracy, and that is its greatest strength.

 

Before 1993-4, essentially everything sold for what the OPG priced it at. The hobby was small enough, without the network of instant info, that it was a good indicator not only of what people WERE paying, but what they would be WILLING to pay (which is often a far, far, FAR more important factor in commerce.)

 

Say it's 1987. If I want an X-Men #1...and there's a mid-grade-ish copy sitting in a dealer case for $300...I may say "hmm...I want it, but I don't know if it's worth $300. That's what the OPG says it's worth, but I just don't know..."

 

Then, you come back the next day, or the next week, or whatever, and it's gone. You inquire, and you find out your friend, Steve, bought it for $300.

 

Now, to you, the $300 price has been legitimized in your mind, because someone else...and more importantly, someone you know...thought it was worth $300. They confirmed the value of the book to you.

 

Now, you will be much, much more WILLING to buy the next comparable copy that comes along for $300, because you have a basis of value for it.

 

That's how prices go up, and how the market has operated since, essentially, the 60's.

 

Now, however, it's 1993, and it's a nuthouse. Books are selling for unheard of prices, and the market is moving far too fast for ANY price guide to keep current. Nobody, not Wizard, not the Updates, nothing is able to keep up with the market and demand for comics, both new and old. Books that are released one day are $50 by the end of that day, and $100 by the weekend (Superman #75.)

 

No one can keep track of that, so....they stopped trying, and simply decided what their prices would be.

 

Then, the great collapse of 94-96 came, which trickled down to the entire industry by 1999-2001. And, in 1999-2001, you could get almost anything for practically nothing. I bought a 9.2ish TMNT #1 first print for $66 shipped on eBay in March or April of 1999. Fantasy #15s in VG could be had for less than $1,000 (yes, less than $1,000.) Avengers #1? How about $300 for a mid-grade. FF #1? How's about $700 for a VG? Showcase #22? $500 for a solid F/VF. X-Men #94? A NM copy would only set you back $150 or so, if that.

 

But, Bob Overstreet wasn't prepared for this, and wouldn't react, because it was foreign territory to him. Yes, the market had receded...a bit...in the early 80's, but in his entire collecting experience, things had NEVER contracted the way they did in the late 90's, ever. Oh, sure, people were still paying a premium for the ultra high grade, and the GA keys, but everything else was dumpsville. So...what to do?

 

One of the first post-crash things that OPG did was SLASH the prices for Fine and Good (before there was VG, VF, VF/NM, etc.) From the 1997 to the 1998 OPG, the prices for "NM" stayed fairly static...but the prices for everything below took a massive hit....massively slashed...and, since it wasn't the "top grade' value, people hardly noticed. Before CGC, of course, was the bad old days, and EVERYTHING was priced at the "NM" price (yes, I exaggerate, but not by much.)

 

But that wasn't enough, so...for the first time in OPG history, Bob slowly cut prices by percentages on everything...slowly, slowly, slowly, year after year. 1% here, 2% there, 5% over here. Some stuff went up, but a lot of stuff went down, as it should have, between 1997 and 2005.

 

Of course, what happened in between? The internet. And, for the first time in history, collectors could easily sell TO EACH OTHER, cutting out the catalog dealers, the retailers, the con dealers, etc. It was a revelation, and it combined with the crash to drive prices down, down, down.

 

So we arrived at the 21st century, with the comics market at its lowest point ever...new books struggled to sell 100,000 direct copies, the newsstand was on a death march, and prices were at all time lows.

 

Overstreet doesn't react, because now, he can't. He's created a guide that no longer reflects what is, because it cannot. The monopoly on selling comics that dealers had since the 60's is gone, the market has crashed, and everyone and their mother could sell comics to everyone else and THEIR mothers. And, once the demand was gone...the prices fell.

 

OPG soldiers on. However, all hope is not lost. A savior for the industry comes out of the blue, from a hitherto fairly unconnected source: movies. It starts with Spiderman in 2002 (X-Men in 2000 did virtually nothing.)

 

Actually, it started in 1989 with Batman, but that didn't last. It was like EC fandom in the 50's, the first really organized collectors, which fizzled after EC was forced to shut it down.

 

But Spidey comes out in 2002, and the public is starved for superheroes...and demand returns. Slowly, and limited to Spidey stuff, but it returns. People start looking for comics again.

 

Then, we start to have "events" that bring in new readers...Identity Crisis...Civil War....death of Cap....and Spiderman 2....and a few non-Superhero comic movies get made, that capture people's interests...From Hell....League of Extraordinary Gents...then more capes, like X-Men 2, and Batman Begins...

 

Then. 2008 happens. And like a thunderclap, The Dark Knight and Iron Man open the floodgates, the dam bursts, and for the first time in a decade and a half, comic books are cool again! And one after another, the hits keep coming...Wolverine, Avengers, Thor, Iron Man 2, Man of Steel, Thor 2, Hulk (the Norton version)...and the market is absolutely in hysteria not seen in years.

 

What does all of this have to do with the OPG's relevance?

 

Much. See, while OPG refused to slash prices where they should have been, he maintained a "ceiling" value, and the prices in the OPG stopped being looked at as the starting price (as they had been from 1970-1995-ish) and started being looked at as the STOPPING price. "Ok, what's OPG on a VG/F Batman #232? Ok, how about 25% off of that?"

 

And that scenario got repeated over and over and over again. The OPG is inaccurate...but it has been CONSISTENT in its inaccuracy, to the point where I can look up a price, do a quick mental figuring, and come up with a reasonable FMV for just about anything...and I don't have to memorize the entire guide to do it (there was a time, in the early 90's, when I could quote you any price, for any book, in the Updates...when NM was the only price listed, but that was still several thousand prices.)

 

And now....we're starting to see demand reach the point where the prices in the OPG are, for the first time in 2 decades, starting to become the actual prices that the market is willing to pay!

 

I've used the OPG for 25 years now, and I still use it to form a "baseline value." Granted, that baseline value is now the high-end retail price, what someone who isn't savvy would expect to pay at a store, but still...I can look at it and see a Challengers of the Unknown #7 in VG and know if $75 is a fair price for it or not...and here's where I circle back to the point I made at the very beginning: so can everyone else.

 

And, if I know what everyone else is willing to pay, I can know what I want to pay. Seems counterintuitive at times, but that's really how it works. Don't believe me...?

 

Then why does everything have a price tag on it? Why can't people just pick merchandise out, walk up to the merchant (or his/her representative), and say "I'll pay you $15 for this shirt"? You may say "well, it's obviously to save time!"...not so. It's so that people know what everyone else expects and is expected to pay for the same item.

 

If a book is marked at $24.95...then I know that most people will expect to pay $24.95 for it, even if they never actually pay $24.95. "Wha?? How does THAT work, RMA???" Simple. You see the price tag, and you say...ooo...I'm getting a deal if I buy it from Amazon for 40% off!...not *really* stopping to think, on a deeper conscious level, that EVERYONE gets that same price. No, to you, the "price marked" is what it's "worth", because that's what the "average Joe" off the street has to pay, and that's what the retailer wants you to *think* it is worth.

 

And that's how markets work.

 

Same with the OPG. If a Spiderman #14 has a VG value of $476, then I "know" that, somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist, and doesn't actually buy a VG Spidey #14 at that price.) Whether someone actually does or not doesn't matter...the fact is, SOMEONE (even if it's only the people who work for Overstreet) thinks that book has a retail value of $476, which means that I can safely pay $350 for it, and not get burned, because it's really only worth $25.

 

And that is why the OPG is still relevant.

 

 

I gotta say, this this was a pretty damn good post.

[MrBedrock]

if this book is so valuable, what would the 9.0 copy of OAAW 83 sell for today?

 

My guess is the 9.0 would sell for $25K-$30K.

The owner has turned down $30K for it without a hint of consideration.

Yes, but isn't that mostly because the owner simply never sells anything?

Nope. He has sold some books. He sold a killer run of Mystery in Space.

[tth2]

if this book is so valuable, what would the 9.0 copy of OAAW 83 sell for today?

 

My guess is the 9.0 would sell for $25K-$30K.

The owner has turned down $30K for it without a hint of consideration.

Yes, but isn't that mostly because the owner simply never sells anything?

Nope. He has sold some books. He sold a killer run of Mystery in Space.

 

I am now expecting to see the sun rise in the west tomorrow.