OAAW 83's potential to be a top 5 SA key?

[RockMyAmadeus]

I gotta say, this this was a pretty damn good post.

 

Are you sure the sun didn't rise in the west THIS MORNING...?

 

[Sqeggs]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

 

I don't think this is true, at least for GA books. If you follow the GA books in a Heritage auction, a large majority typically close in the neighborhood of guide. Some books are rising in interest and close well above guide, and other books have fallen out of favor and close well below guide.

 

These results either reflect the rough accuracy of guide prices or people bidding in these auction checking guide prices to anchor their bids, or both.

[BarryAllen]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

 

 

I don't think this is true, at least for GA books. If you follow the GA books in a Heritage auction, a large majority typically close in the neighborhood of guide. Some books are rising in interest and close well above guide, and other books have fallen out of favor and close well below guide.

 

These results either reflect the rough accuracy of guide prices or people bidding in these auction checking guide prices to anchor their bids, or both.

 

Don't most auctions quote guide? Kinda skews the interpretation of the outcome in my book. To RMA's point earlier, by quoting guide an implicit reference point is created and increases the likelihood of a price near the reference.

[Sqeggs]

Outside of the articles (which was a good point), the guide is not helpful because you only use it because you do not have a known alternative or because the price you found benefits you (either as a buyer or seller).

 

The guide is helpful, which is why people use it. I don't know what you mean about a price that "benefits" you. Buyers like low prices and sellers like high prices. I don't know what the relevance of that is to the Overstreet guide.

 

Overstreet never intended the guide to reflect blips in books that are temporarily hot. For an annual guide it wouldn't make much sense to incorporate the latest market data from the day before the book went to press. When books experience sustained increases in prices, the increases do get reflected in the guide over time.

 

Anyone looking for guidance on the pricing of a book rocketing up due to movie rumors would be foolish to turn to Overstreet. Anyone looking for a ballpark value of most GA and SA books will find it in the guide.

 

You may be right that people are foolish to use the guide, but you are wrong to state that they don't use. If people are mispricing comics relative to their true market values because they use the guide, you have a great opportunity to make money at their expense.

[BarryAllen]

Outside of the articles (which was a good point), the guide is not helpful because you only use it because you do not have a known alternative or because the price you found benefits you (either as a buyer or seller).

 

The guide is helpful, which is why people use it. I don't know what you mean about a price that "benefits" you. Buyers like low prices and sellers like high prices. I don't know what the relevance of that is to the Overstreet guide.

 

Overstreet never intended the guide to reflect blips in books that are temporarily hot. For an annual guide it wouldn't make much sense to incorporate the latest market data from the day before the book went to press. When books experience sustained increases in prices, the increases do get reflected in the guide over time.

 

Anyone looking for guidance on the pricing of a book rocketing up due to movie rumors would be foolish to turn to Overstreet. Anyone looking for a ballpark value of most GA and SA books will find it in the guide.

 

You may be right that people are foolish to use the guide, but you are wrong to state that they don't use. If people are mispricing comics relative to their true market values because they use the guide, you have a great opportunity to make money at their expense.

 

Did I state people don't use it?

 

I don't think so, but if I did I agree that is wrong. It is used, clearly.

[Sqeggs]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

 

 

I don't think this is true, at least for GA books. If you follow the GA books in a Heritage auction, a large majority typically close in the neighborhood of guide. Some books are rising in interest and close well above guide, and other books have fallen out of favor and close well below guide.

 

These results either reflect the rough accuracy of guide prices or people bidding in these auction checking guide prices to anchor their bids, or both.

 

Don't most auctions quote guide? Kinda skews the interpretation of the outcome in my book. To RMA's point earlier, by quoting guide an implicit reference point is created and increases the likelihood of a price near the reference.

 

I have to say life is too short to have read through RMA's post. But, either

 

1. auction prices are near guide because the guide is reflecting the market

 

or

 

2. auction prices are near guide because people are blindly following guide and somehow -- despite the auction results -- the true market values are different from guide

 

If 2. is correct, you have a whale of an opportunity to make money at the expense of people who are naively following guide.

[BarryAllen]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

 

 

I don't think this is true, at least for GA books. If you follow the GA books in a Heritage auction, a large majority typically close in the neighborhood of guide. Some books are rising in interest and close well above guide, and other books have fallen out of favor and close well below guide.

 

These results either reflect the rough accuracy of guide prices or people bidding in these auction checking guide prices to anchor their bids, or both.

 

Don't most auctions quote guide? Kinda skews the interpretation of the outcome in my book. To RMA's point earlier, by quoting guide an implicit reference point is created and increases the likelihood of a price near the reference.

 

I have to say life is too short to have read through RMA's post. But, either

 

1. auction prices are near guide because the guide is reflecting the market

 

or

 

2. auction prices are near guide because people are blindly following guide and somehow -- despite the auction results -- the true market values are different from guide

 

If 2. is correct, you have a whale of an opportunity to make money at the expense of people who are naively following guide.

 

I don't have data to refute your point on final prices relative to guide, but given the level of complaints on a regular basis about the guide and the amount of time spent comparing prices to GPA (which in general is not close to guide) - I would venture that fewer books close near guide versus more.

 

However, if books do close near guide it could be a coincidence. :shrug: Correlation is a thing often assumed incorrectly (no offense).

[RockMyAmadeus]

I have to say life is too short to have read through RMA's post.

 

15 years, and you're still a gem of a peach.

 

[Mr Sneeze]

There are hundreds (if not thousands) of conversations on this site where people claim the guide is not a good indicator of value.

 

It can't wrong all the time, right all the time and still be legitimate. Heck, one of the main points of this thread has been how OOAW 83 was not included in the top 20, but should have been... People can't have it both ways, pick and choose which data is accurate and then decide it is still legitimate. I call shenanigans.

 

Ultimately it comes down to how the pricing is created. From how it has been explained to me, it is a bunch of people (and by people I mean investors in the guide via advertising or other and various forms of comic sellers) sitting in a room and discussing what comic values should be and coming to some alignment. Ignoring the obvious conflict of interest in that arrangement, I have also read that a number of other dealers have submitted reams of data from actual sales that largely goes ignored.

 

So no it isn't legitimate if: it isn't consistent, isn't created without a conflict of interest and doesn't incorporate broader results of actual sales. Lack of another substitute to help with pricing doesn't make it accurate.

 

That's the first thing you've posted here that I mostly disagree with.

 

 

The reason OPG is relevant is not because the prices aren't "accurate." It's true, the prices aren't accurate; rarely do books sell for what they're priced at in the OPG.

 

But...

 

It is consistent in its inaccuracy, and that is its greatest strength.

 

Before 1993-4, essentially everything sold for what the OPG priced it at. The hobby was small enough, without the network of instant info, that it was a good indicator not only of what people WERE paying, but what they would be WILLING to pay (which is often a far, far, FAR more important factor in commerce.)

 

Say it's 1987. If I want an X-Men #1...and there's a mid-grade-ish copy sitting in a dealer case for $300...I may say "hmm...I want it, but I don't know if it's worth $300. That's what the OPG says it's worth, but I just don't know..."

 

Then, you come back the next day, or the next week, or whatever, and it's gone. You inquire, and you find out your friend, Steve, bought it for $300.

 

Now, to you, the $300 price has been legitimized in your mind, because someone else...and more importantly, someone you know...thought it was worth $300. They confirmed the value of the book to you.

 

Now, you will be much, much more WILLING to buy the next comparable copy that comes along for $300, because you have a basis of value for it.

 

That's how prices go up, and how the market has operated since, essentially, the 60's.

 

Now, however, it's 1993, and it's a nuthouse. Books are selling for unheard of prices, and the market is moving far too fast for ANY price guide to keep current. Nobody, not Wizard, not the Updates, nothing is able to keep up with the market and demand for comics, both new and old. Books that are released one day are $50 by the end of that day, and $100 by the weekend (Superman #75.)

 

No one can keep track of that, so....they stopped trying, and simply decided what their prices would be.

 

Then, the great collapse of 94-96 came, which trickled down to the entire industry by 1999-2001. And, in 1999-2001, you could get almost anything for practically nothing. I bought a 9.2ish TMNT #1 first print for $66 shipped on eBay in March or April of 1999. Fantasy #15s in VG could be had for less than $1,000 (yes, less than $1,000.) Avengers #1? How about $300 for a mid-grade. FF #1? How's about $700 for a VG? Showcase #22? $500 for a solid F/VF. X-Men #94? A NM copy would only set you back $150 or so, if that.

 

But, Bob Overstreet wasn't prepared for this, and wouldn't react, because it was foreign territory to him. Yes, the market had receded...a bit...in the early 80's, but in his entire collecting experience, things had NEVER contracted the way they did in the late 90's, ever. Oh, sure, people were still paying a premium for the ultra high grade, and the GA keys, but everything else was dumpsville. So...what to do?

 

One of the first post-crash things that OPG did was SLASH the prices for Fine and Good (before there was VG, VF, VF/NM, etc.) From the 1997 to the 1998 OPG, the prices for "NM" stayed fairly static...but the prices for everything below took a massive hit....massively slashed...and, since it wasn't the "top grade' value, people hardly noticed. Before CGC, of course, was the bad old days, and EVERYTHING was priced at the "NM" price (yes, I exaggerate, but not by much.)

 

But that wasn't enough, so...for the first time in OPG history, Bob slowly cut prices by percentages on everything...slowly, slowly, slowly, year after year. 1% here, 2% there, 5% over here. Some stuff went up, but a lot of stuff went down, as it should have, between 1997 and 2005.

 

Of course, what happened in between? The internet. And, for the first time in history, collectors could easily sell TO EACH OTHER, cutting out the catalog dealers, the retailers, the con dealers, etc. It was a revelation, and it combined with the crash to drive prices down, down, down.

 

So we arrived at the 21st century, with the comics market at its lowest point ever...new books struggled to sell 100,000 direct copies, the newsstand was on a death march, and prices were at all time lows.

 

Overstreet doesn't react, because now, he can't. He's created a guide that no longer reflects what is, because it cannot. The monopoly on selling comics that dealers had since the 60's is gone, the market has crashed, and everyone and their mother could sell comics to everyone else and THEIR mothers. And, once the demand was gone...the prices fell.

 

OPG soldiers on. However, all hope is not lost. A savior for the industry comes out of the blue, from a hitherto fairly unconnected source: movies. It starts with Spiderman in 2002 (X-Men in 2000 did virtually nothing.)

 

Actually, it started in 1989 with Batman, but that didn't last. It was like EC fandom in the 50's, the first really organized collectors, which fizzled after EC was forced to shut it down.

 

But Spidey comes out in 2002, and the public is starved for superheroes...and demand returns. Slowly, and limited to Spidey stuff, but it returns. People start looking for comics again.

 

Then, we start to have "events" that bring in new readers...Identity Crisis...Civil War....death of Cap....and Spiderman 2....and a few non-Superhero comic movies get made, that capture people's interests...From Hell....League of Extraordinary Gents...then more capes, like X-Men 2, and Batman Begins...

 

Then. 2008 happens. And like a thunderclap, The Dark Knight and Iron Man open the floodgates, the dam bursts, and for the first time in a decade and a half, comic books are cool again! And one after another, the hits keep coming...Wolverine, Avengers, Thor, Iron Man 2, Man of Steel, Thor 2, Hulk (the Norton version)...and the market is absolutely in hysteria not seen in years.

 

What does all of this have to do with the OPG's relevance?

 

Much. See, while OPG refused to slash prices where they should have been, he maintained a "ceiling" value, and the prices in the OPG stopped being looked at as the starting price (as they had been from 1970-1995-ish) and started being looked at as the STOPPING price. "Ok, what's OPG on a VG/F Batman #232? Ok, how about 25% off of that?"

 

And that scenario got repeated over and over and over again. The OPG is inaccurate...but it has been CONSISTENT in its inaccuracy, to the point where I can look up a price, do a quick mental figuring, and come up with a reasonable FMV for just about anything...and I don't have to memorize the entire guide to do it (there was a time, in the early 90's, when I could quote you any price, for any book, in the Updates...when NM was the only price listed, but that was still several thousand prices.)

 

And now....we're starting to see demand reach the point where the prices in the OPG are, for the first time in 2 decades, starting to become the actual prices that the market is willing to pay!

 

I've used the OPG for 25 years now, and I still use it to form a "baseline value." Granted, that baseline value is now the high-end retail price, what someone who isn't savvy would expect to pay at a store, but still...I can look at it and see a Challengers of the Unknown #7 in VG and know if $75 is a fair price for it or not...and here's where I circle back to the point I made at the very beginning: so can everyone else.

 

And, if I know what everyone else is willing to pay, I can know what I want to pay. Seems counterintuitive at times, but that's really how it works. Don't believe me...?

 

Then why does everything have a price tag on it? Why can't people just pick merchandise out, walk up to the merchant (or his/her representative), and say "I'll pay you $15 for this shirt"? You may say "well, it's obviously to save time!"...not so. It's so that people know what everyone else expects and is expected to pay for the same item.

 

If a book is marked at $24.95...then I know that most people will expect to pay $24.95 for it, even if they never actually pay $24.95. "Wha?? How does THAT work, RMA???" Simple. You see the price tag, and you say...ooo...I'm getting a deal if I buy it from Amazon for 40% off!...not *really* stopping to think, on a deeper conscious level, that EVERYONE gets that same price. No, to you, the "price marked" is what it's "worth", because that's what the "average Joe" off the street has to pay, and that's what the retailer wants you to *think* it is worth.

 

And that's how markets work.

 

Same with the OPG. If a Spiderman #14 has a VG value of $476, then I "know" that, somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist, and doesn't actually buy a VG Spidey #14 at that price.) Whether someone actually does or not doesn't matter...the fact is, SOMEONE (even if it's only the people who work for Overstreet) thinks that book has a retail value of $476, which means that I can safely pay $350 for it, and not get burned, because it's really only worth $25.

 

And that is why the OPG is still relevant.

 

 

 

In the zone! Great post!

[VintageComics]

The biggest problem with rfoii's ideology is that it doesn't recognize the fluidity of the market.

 

Like I said earlier, a book value is not a stock ticker. The price with fluctuate, sometimes wildly for a single book.

 

I agree with RMA's post that the Guide's greatest strength is it's consistency.

[BarryAllen]

The biggest problem with rfoii's ideology is that it doesn't recognize the fluidity of the market.

 

Like I said earlier, a book value is not a stock ticker. The price with fluctuate, sometimes wildly for a single book.

 

I agree with RMA's post that the Guide's greatest strength is it's consistency.

 

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense to me.

 

How can my ideology (which proposes a better tool that regularly reflects prices actualize in market) not taking a fluid market into account?

 

Furthermore, how does a static guide that is largely historically based (ignore accuracy for a second) a better example of adapting to a fluid market?

 

No offense but your points seem contradictory.

[Heronext]

Agreed on the post by RMA. Great historical summary.

 

After a single reading, it seems he's saying the OPG is OK because he can make his own guide in his head based off its values: 75% of this, 110% of that. Why not make those figures the real guide?

 

I don't get this part: "somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist)".

 

I've always thought the NBA should change as follows: Give each team 100 points and let them play for 10 minutes.

[Jeffro.]

I think we can probably do better than what OPG presents. However, I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze. Even with actual sales data, there are far too many variables that can skew the data. Grading inaccuracies (+ and -) by the seller, eye appeal, page quality, and more. What will be the vetting process for all that? (hint, hint, there won't be one)

Expecting a GPA equivalent for raw comics seems unrealistic to me.

 

[KPR Comics]

Agreed on the post by RMA. Great historical summary.

 

After a single reading, it seems he's saying the OPG is OK because he can make his own guide in his head based off its values: 75% of this, 110% of that. Why not make those figures the real guide?

 

I don't get this part: "somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist)".

 

I've always thought the NBA should change as follows: Give each team 100 points and let them play for 10 minutes.

 

He's saying that he or a market participant takes comfort in the perception that someone else values the book at a certain amount. So if he buys the book at a "discount" to that price, then he's gotten a good deal. He doesn't have to have documented proof that someone else paid book value, he just needs to "know" that someone would. Just like sticker price or MSRP. No one pays it, but you feel good if you pay less (even though you actually paid retail).

It is a cogent and compelling argument that he makes.

[VintageComics]

 

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense to me.

 

How can my ideology (which proposes a better tool that regularly reflects prices actualize in market) not taking a fluid market into account?

 

Furthermore, how does a static guide that is largely historically based (ignore accuracy for a second) a better example of adapting to a fluid market?

 

No offense but your points seem contradictory.

 

You want the perfect pricing tool but there never will be one.

 

People will always sell or buy relative to any Guide. It's how books rise or drop in value over the years.

 

 

[VintageComics]

I think we can probably do better than what OPG presents. However, I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze. Even with actual sales data, there are far too many variables that can skew the data. Grading inaccuracies (+ and -) by the seller, eye appeal, page quality, and more. What will be the vetting process for all that? (hint, hint, there won't be one)

 

Actual sales data has in a way proven to be a problem, because now that everyone can 'plug in' to live sales data nobody wants to pay more than the next guy. Didn't used to be that way. People psychologically don't want to pay more than the last person.

 

Everyone wants their comics to continue to escalate in value but nobody wants to help them go up in value by paying for them.

 

Expecting a GPA equivalent for raw comics seems unrealistic to me.

 

I proposed the idea a few years ago (GPA was on board at least during the discussion stage) and it got shot down by boardies.

 

And I don't want to rehash the discussion but I think it would work.

 

Now we have ComicPriceGuide.com instead.

[Jaydogrules]

I think we can probably do better than what OPG presents. However, I'm not sure the juice is worth the squeeze. Even with actual sales data, there are far too many variables that can skew the data. Grading inaccuracies (+ and -) by the seller, eye appeal, page quality, and more. What will be the vetting process for all that? (hint, hint, there won't be one)

 

Actual sales data has in a way proven to be a problem, because now that everyone can 'plug in' to live sales data nobody wants to pay more than the next guy. Didn't used to be that way. People psychologically don't want to pay more than the last person.

 

Everyone wants their comics to continue to escalate in value but nobody wants to help them go up in value by paying for them.

 

 

I for one will tell you that I have always made sure to do my part by shattering all previous sales records for pretty much every book that I have ever bought. So count me in as a team player. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[joeypost]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

 

 

I don't think this is true, at least for GA books. If you follow the GA books in a Heritage auction, a large majority typically close in the neighborhood of guide. Some books are rising in interest and close well above guide, and other books have fallen out of favor and close well below guide.

 

These results either reflect the rough accuracy of guide prices or people bidding in these auction checking guide prices to anchor their bids, or both.

 

Don't most auctions quote guide? Kinda skews the interpretation of the outcome in my book. To RMA's point earlier, by quoting guide an implicit reference point is created and increases the likelihood of a price near the reference.

 

While true to a degree, it is not an absolute. Look at auctions that sell for multiples of guide or GPA? At that point it becomes a contest and it is no longer based on value. I saw that in an auction I had on comic connect last year. A Swamp Thing #1 in 9.8 that sold for $2,400.00 when eBay had buy it nows at GPA.

[VintageComics]

I for one will tell you that I have always made sure to do my part by shattering all previous sales records for pretty much every book that I have ever bought. So count me in as a team player. (thumbs u

 

 

Me too, when it comes to personal books!

[BarryAllen]

 

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense to me.

 

How can my ideology (which proposes a better tool that regularly reflects prices actualize in market) not taking a fluid market into account?

 

Furthermore, how does a static guide that is largely historically based (ignore accuracy for a second) a better example of adapting to a fluid market?

 

No offense but your points seem contradictory.

 

You want the perfect pricing tool but there never will be one.

 

People will always sell or buy relative to any Guide. It's how books rise or drop in value over the years.

 

 

I am not sure if I want the "perfect" pricing tool but rather desire the creation of a better one using known available data (whether it is currently or freely shared is a different topic).

 

I agree wholeheartedly with your second point, but I do not believe the use of OPG is a good tool for this today. To your earlier point, the market is very fluid and pricing adjusts very quickly (driven largely by the rapid growth of digital sales). An annual printed guide that is historically based on a select few opinions is not efficient.

 

I don't think desiring and pushing for a more powerful tool is unreasonable and I believe it will eventually exist. Whether GPA acquires more data or Overstreet updates its 1970 methodology to a more modern approach or something else entirely is created, it will eventually happen. The whole world is adapting to the digital age, some markets and areas are just faster than others (stock market, car sales, etc).

 

At the end of the day people only use OPG because a reasonable alternative isn't readily available. That doesn't make it a good tool. If I don't have a hammer and need to nail a picture to the wall I can use my shoe. Now my picture is nailed to the wall but it wasn't the right tool for the job and I likely did damage to both the wall, my shoe and eventually the picture when it falls. But hey my picture is hung, right.!? :shrug: