OAAW 83's potential to be a top 5 SA key?

[BarryAllen]

I for one will tell you that I have always made sure to do my part by shattering all previous sales records for pretty much every book that I have ever bought. So count me in as a team player. (thumbs u

 

 

Me too, when it comes to personal books!

 

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on the point of view) I am a member of this club as well.

[BarryAllen]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

 

 

I don't think this is true, at least for GA books. If you follow the GA books in a Heritage auction, a large majority typically close in the neighborhood of guide. Some books are rising in interest and close well above guide, and other books have fallen out of favor and close well below guide.

 

These results either reflect the rough accuracy of guide prices or people bidding in these auction checking guide prices to anchor their bids, or both.

 

Don't most auctions quote guide? Kinda skews the interpretation of the outcome in my book. To RMA's point earlier, by quoting guide an implicit reference point is created and increases the likelihood of a price near the reference.

 

While true to a degree, it is not an absolute. Look at auctions that sell for multiples of guide or GPA? At that point it becomes a contest and it is no longer based on value. I saw that in an auction I had on comic connect last year. A Swamp Thing #1 in 9.8 that sold for $2,400.00 when eBay had buy it nows at GPA.

 

Agree that auctions can add a human element of "competition" or irrational behavior when it comes to purchases. To an extent, this is a completely unpredictable variable.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

I don't get this part: "somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist)".

 

You clipped off the first, and most vital, part of that sentence, which gives it its context:

 

"If a Spiderman #14 has a VG value of $476, then I "know" that, somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist, and doesn't actually buy a VG Spidey #14 at that price.)"

 

It's about perception, not hard sales data. I don't really know that someone else values it at that, I just have to believe they do, whoever that "they" may be...and the OPG fulfills that function quite admirably.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

I'm sorry but this doesn't make sense to me.

 

How can my ideology (which proposes a better tool that regularly reflects prices actualize in market) not taking a fluid market into account?

 

Furthermore, how does a static guide that is largely historically based (ignore accuracy for a second) a better example of adapting to a fluid market?

 

No offense but your points seem contradictory.

 

You want the perfect pricing tool but there never will be one.

 

People will always sell or buy relative to any Guide. It's how books rise or drop in value over the years.

 

 

I am not sure if I want the "perfect" pricing tool but rather desire the creation of a better one using known available data (whether it is currently or freely shared is a different topic).

 

I agree wholeheartedly with your second point, but I do not believe the use of OPG is a good tool for this today. To your earlier point, the market is very fluid and pricing adjusts very quickly (driven largely by the rapid growth of digital sales). An annual printed guide that is historically based on a select few opinions is not efficient.

 

I don't think desiring and pushing for a more powerful tool is unreasonable and I believe it will eventually exist. Whether GPA acquires more data or Overstreet updates its 1970 methodology to a more modern approach or something else entirely is created, it will eventually happen. The whole world is adapting to the digital age, some markets and areas are just faster than others (stock market, car sales, etc).

 

At the end of the day people only use OPG because a reasonable alternative isn't readily available. That doesn't make it a good tool. If I don't have a hammer and need to nail a picture to the wall I can use my shoe. Now my picture is nailed to the wall but it wasn't the right tool for the job and I likely did damage to both the wall, my shoe and eventually the picture when it falls. But hey my picture is hung, right.!? :shrug:

 

I appreciate your position, and have argued for an update to pricing for many years, but what you're asking for is impossible, for one very important reason: back issue comics aren't widgets.

 

A new car is, ostensibly, identical to every other like car that comes off the assembly line. A single share of Walmart is identical to every other share of Walmart. A new shirt is identical to all the other shirts like it.

 

But when you're dealing with used materials, all those pricing models go right out the window.

 

Look at Kelly Blue Book...are THOSE prices accurate...? Because they're attempting to value items that are now completely unique, no two being alike, and almost always substantially different in very significant ways.

 

So it is with back issues. No two books are alike, no two sellers are alike, and no two buyers are alike. Even graded books have significant differences that aren't reflected at GPA (beyond page quality, restoration, and the like...things like color richness, centering, specific flaws, etc), and therefore gives an inaccurate view of what the book in front of you is actually "worth."

 

To overhaul the OPG would require a massive effort that the OPG simply doesn't have to make, nor do they have any incentive to make it. It can be "more accurate", but the level of accuracy you're looking for isn't possible, and as the 'fro™ says, the juice ain't worth the squeeze.

 

But you know what they say about people telling you things are impossible...go out there and prove them wrong. Take the reigns, make it happen, build a better mousetrap. The comics world is waiting...

[Aman619]

let me say that I too would like a simple and accurate and thorough price guide, especially a cloud based solution, that tracks up to the minute pricing data for every comic book published, both raw and slabbed. RFOLI we get it. This would be great and in todays world of convergence something to shoot for.

 

 

 

but absent mandatory compliance from EVERY SINGLE PERSON AND DEALER out there that sells a book, and every collector who trades with anyone else forced to log in and report their sales, or forced to sell through a central bank of some kind, the dream is just not possible… and not even close to happening.

 

Therefore, as with other hobbies and collecting fields, one must arm themselves with as much knowledge and data as they can if they want to stay abreast of the market.. It is in this vein that RMAs statement that if he pays half guide for a book, he knows he's actually paying retail. Overstreet doesn't lurch to mirror the market. Its an annual. in print! But he does recognize trends and has lowered proes prices the board, and stretched the spreads from G to NM- far in excess of where they started, keeping Gs and VGs nearly the same while publishing soaring NM- values.

 

 

sorry .. no shortcuts at this time, nor in the foreseeable future!

 

[H0RR0RSH0W]

Although this thread had been spun into a discussion of Overstreet prices I would like to interject that it is my opinion on the topic of the original subject that the category of war comics is significantly influential. My opinion may not be valued by anyone here but I would like to elaborate on that statement anyway. Look at the lengthy discussions and debates that have ensued from the mention of this one comic book alone(OAAW #83). Saying that it is not worthy just because of a log jam at the top is not giving it dues. I feel that war comics are in the whole of comic collecting an invitation to the average joe to buy,read and enjoy. In order to read and enjoy there is not such a strong necessity to suspend belief of reality. For example bullets do not bounce off a soldiers chest nor can they leap tall buildings in a single bound. Someone got shot and died, that is believable. If the cover shows a soldier falling from the sky one might read the book out of a morbid curiosity to see if they are killed. If on a superhero comic cover the hero is flying through the air a reader might pick it up to see how they get out of the predicament or just to see where they are flying off to. In the end we all know what happens in war , even to a hero... So while the characters in a war book might be an antithesis of the super hero they are hero's none the less and have had marked influence on comic lore. I just want to point out to the wiser more experienced collectors out there that this can be the first step to creating new readers and collectors. So excuse my "Go ask Alice" theory but I feel it is worth mentioning in an effort to break the log jam of superhero comics at the top of the list.

[jimjum12]

....only problem is that mainstream collecting has been driven by costumed heroes since almost the beginning of Fandom. As cool a book as OAAW 83 is...... it will never even be a top 10 SA Key......and I think it's an awesome book. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...... not to say a true 9.4 wouldn't settle in somewhere between 50 to 100 K.......

[H0RR0RSH0W]

GOD BLESS!

[Heronext]

Although this thread had been spun into a discussion of Overstreet prices I would like to interject that it is my opinion on the topic of the original subject that the category of war comics is significantly influential. My opinion may not be valued by anyone here but I would like to elaborate on that statement anyway. Look at the lengthy discussions and debates that have ensued from the mention of this one comic book alone(OAAW #83). Saying that it is not worthy just because of a log jam at the top is not giving it dues. I feel that war comics are in the whole of comic collecting an invitation to the average joe to buy,read and enjoy. In order to read and enjoy there is not such a strong necessity to suspend belief of reality. For example bullets do not bounce off a soldiers chest nor can they leap tall buildings in a single bound. Someone got shot and died, that is believable. If the cover shows a soldier falling from the sky one might read the book out of a morbid curiosity to see if they are killed. If on a superhero comic cover the hero is flying through the air a reader might pick it up to see how they get out of the predicament or just to see where they are flying off to. In the end we all know what happens in war , even to a hero... So while the characters in a war book might be an antithesis of the super hero they are hero's none the less and have had marked influence on comic lore. I just want to point out to the wiser more experienced collectors out there that this can be the first step to creating new readers and collectors. So excuse my "Go ask Alice" theory but I feel it is worth mentioning in an effort to break the log jam of superhero comics at the top of the list.

 

I love war books. I started out collecting with subscriptions to Sgt. Rock, G.I. Combat and Weird War Tales. But I don't think it fills the role you prescribe it better than any other genre.

[Jaydogrules]

....only problem is that mainstream collecting has been driven by costumed heroes since almost the beginning of Fandom. As cool a book as OAAW 83 is...... it will never even be a top 10 SA Key......and I think it's an awesome book. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...... not to say a true 9.4 wouldn't settle in somewhere between 50 to 100 K.......

 

What exactly are you basing this opinion on Jim?

 

-J.

[BarryAllen]

Just don't see vintage war books becoming popular with Gen Y or younger without a significant shift in the characterization of war. With a few exceptions (Inglorious Bastards, etc) war has been largely dramatized into non-long term franchise characterizations. Most popular war movies that come to mind are like "Saving Private Ryan" or "Pearl Harbor" (which are dated :shrug:). There are plenty of others to name but it's not like they had a central hero that kids would role play or companies would turn into action figures. For the most part they were serious dramas or thrillers that catered to adult audiences that could understand the scope of what they were watching.

 

 

Unfortunately for OOAW 83 to hold long term value, the entire genre has to change. Not impossible, but probably as likely to happen as the perfect comic pricing tool.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Paragraph breaks!

[bronze johnny]

....only problem is that mainstream collecting has been driven by costumed heroes since almost the beginning of Fandom. As cool a book as OAAW 83 is...... it will never even be a top 10 SA Key......and I think it's an awesome book. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...... not to say a true 9.4 wouldn't settle in somewhere between 50 to 100 K.......

 

jimbo, there is a fact here: OAAW 83 is a top 20 SA key per Overstreet's current price. When a book hits the top 20, should we immediately dismiss its chances for moving up the list?

 

One thing that some SA Superhero key collectors might fail to understand is that the SA gave rise to the greatest war comics in the history of the American Comic Book: DC's Big Five War Books are the apex of the genre, and OAAW 83 is the single greatest war key of the 20th Century. Sure, OAAW 83 may not be attractive to the speculator/collector but Rock's 1st app. is very much desired in a market driven by collectors knowledgable of the significance of this SA key.

 

 

[H0RR0RSH0W]

I really appreciate everyone's feedback and since the comparison of GPA and Kelly blue book values etc... was brought up I was wondering if someone could set me straight about GPA?

 

 

I have spoken with some that have said they will only "pay GPA" for a comic. Lets take said comic(not war) and show that anywhere it is advertised to the general public,any copy that you could actually purchase on the spot was twice that. Lets say Overstreet is 80-90% percent of publicly advertised; so I am getting a ballpark # as far as was discussed earlier in this thread. All the available books are cgc'd and comparably graded as well. As far as I know GPA is just a data tracker, recording sale prices at grades for comic books,when reported. They do not sell comics. How would this be any different than me looking at a car for sale and telling the seller no I do not want it for Kelly blue book, but I will give you "DMV" for it?

 

 

Perhaps this is an overly simplified fools analogy and you may laugh. Sure I would love to buy a 2010 Honda Accord for the supposed $1000 cash that DMV records say it sold for but I think we all know better. So what I am asking is how can I take the word of a system so clearly biased? When further more Overstreet price guide has been around as long as I can remember and is comprised of less biased balanced opinions of a larger group. Isn't that just plain more democratic?

[Aman619]

GPA data is only as accurate as the data they can obtain and include. That means that only certain dealers have so far agreed to share their sales data.. SO we must all read between the lines for what their data includes and excludes.

 

[BarryAllen]

I really appreciate everyone's feedback and since the comparison of GPA and Kelly blue book values etc... was brought up I was wondering if someone could set me straight about GPA?

 

 

I have spoken with some that have said they will only "pay GPA" for a comic. Lets take said comic(not war) and show that anywhere it is advertised to the general public,any copy that you could actually purchase on the spot was twice that. Lets say Overstreet is 80-90% percent of publicly advertised; so I am getting a ballpark # as far as was discussed earlier in this thread. All the available books are cgc'd and comparably graded as well. As far as I know GPA is just a data tracker, recording sale prices at grades for comic books,when reported. They do not sell comics. How would this be any different than me looking at a car for sale and telling the seller no I do not want it for Kelly blue book, but I will give you "DMV" for it?

 

 

Perhaps this is an overly simplified fools analogy and you may laugh. Sure I would love to buy a 2010 Honda Accord for the supposed $1000 cash that DMV records say it sold for but I think we all know better. So what I am asking is how can I take the word of a system so clearly biased? When further more Overstreet price guide has been around as long as I can remember and is comprised of less biased balanced opinions of a larger group. Isn't that just plain more democratic?

 

GPA = actual market sales. Does not include every sale, but is base on "real time" data from a number of reputable places. Not perfect, but highly reliable. If you are buying slabbed books (particularly key or popularly traded books), GPA is an invaluable tool when combined with a few other simple data sources.

 

OPG = the opinions of "advisors," many who pay to advertise in guide published in a printed format annually. This isn't a democratic approach, it small number of people with a conflict of interest providing personal perspective to an even smaller group who then makes up the pricing. Not perfect ( ), but used on raw books frequently.

[H0RR0RSH0W]

Well I know you are more experienced than me so I believe what you say. Thank you as this has been very informative to me and I value all your opinions.

[BarryAllen]

Well I know you are more experienced than me so I believe what you say. Thank you as this has been very informative to me and I value all your opinions.

 

:shrug:

 

Most people would tell you to invest in tools based on what you collect and if you are worried about return on investment or not.

 

Also, collect what you love.

 

Hard to go wrong with that philosophy.

[Gatsby77]

Another argument against the long-time viability of OAAW 83 is its *current* relative availability in the marketplace.

 

Not in high-grade mind you. I'm not talking about 8.0+. But true Silver DC war collectors understand that availability-wise a 6.5-7.0 of an early Rock appearance equates to a 9.0-9.2 Marvel superhero book.

 

Rather, I've been tracking OAAW 81-100 for the last four years. And OAAW 83 is more available on the open market *now* than it has been.

 

In the last 90 days alone there have been at least four low to mid-grade slabbed sales (3 on GPA, + this month's Clink auction).

 

In addition, there are four (!) mid-grade slabs on eBay right now (granted, at insane BINs) but the demand isn't what it has been for most of the last five years, where you just couldn't find even a decent 4.0 copy for sale. Or they'd come up quarterly...

[jimjum12]

....only problem is that mainstream collecting has been driven by costumed heroes since almost the beginning of Fandom. As cool a book as OAAW 83 is...... it will never even be a top 10 SA Key......and I think it's an awesome book. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...... not to say a true 9.4 wouldn't settle in somewhere between 50 to 100 K.......

 

What exactly are you basing this opinion on Jim?

 

-J.

 

.... just the gut instinct of a rubber-neck Auction fiend A CGC 9.4 of OAAW 83 might possibly be a one of a kind thing and there always seems to be a few more players in that type of situation. I do generally have a tendency to over estimate..... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u