OAAW 83's potential to be a top 5 SA key?

[comick1]

It's spin if you think that awareness that the book exists will suddenly make it more desirable to the uneducated.

 

Knowing about it is a far cry from caring about it.

 

Look at the list of every book currently ranked higher by value. Now...how many of those books are also more common?

 

How many other books are also close in value, but have census numbers that far exceed that of OOAW 83?

 

How much would OOAW 83 be worth if it were as common as AF 15? IMO, not very much at all.

 

Interesting spin and hypothetical question. Not interested in going back and forth with you about positions based on a "what if" - we differ on our collecting approaches. 'Nuff said.

 

Choose not to answer?

 

That's OK, I'll fill you in on the last one: As supply increases, value decreases.

 

There are currently 105 copies of OOAW 83 on the census, as opposed to 2256 for AF 15. So...over 20 to 1. Divide current value of OOAW 83 by 20, and that's about right.

 

So...if it were as common as AF 15, a CGC 4.0 would be worth about $200. By contrast, AF 15 is $10k in 4.0.

 

So...how many other SA keys (or mid-keys) are worth $200+ in 4.0? Quite a few.

 

$200? For the first rock? I think you are underestimating

 

Quite apart from Mick's valid point that more frequent trading would in some ways help the book, even if one accepts that the value would come down at an AF15 supply level, there's no way it would be $200. Its still the key war book. I can't see it being less than $500 in vg even as a very worst case scenario if you make it very common for an early SA book.

 

as for your not knowing about the book, its not that surprising when #81 was for a long time considered the 1st app (now considered a prototype).

 

Just surfed Ebay and a totally shot copy--looks to be 1.5 to 2.0--is currently in a NR auction and hovering at $320- with 3 days to go.

 

item# 281544539177

 

 

There's another one that looks to be about the same condition--for different reasons--at $260- with a day to go.

 

item# 141520415081

 

 

 

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I am starting another thread on a silver age key that everyone forgets about that could easily crack the top 20, and anyone who thinks there is NO demand for this other book I just wish that it were true

 

 

I read the thread, color me unimpressed.

 

For someone who desires discussion, you are quick to be snide and dismissive.

 

Ok, sorry you feel that way.

 

I was just expressing that 1950's point of view and posting on this topic and the other thread he started has been in a word "silly." I don't know if I was being snide, but I agree I was being dismissive. Based the posts, I felt dismissive was an appropriate response given the lack of reasoning in his arguments.

 

I do crave discussion but get easily frustrated when people do not string together cohesive arguments or back up their assertions with more than unedited personal opinions. We all have our flaws, I admit this is one of mine.

 

Probably wasn't the nicest thing I have said, but certainly not anywhere near the vicious posts I have seen on here from a number of veterans. Maybe I should have been nicer.

 

:shrug:

 

In general, we can all be nicer. People are going to be who they are on the web. However, when I see comments such as yours, I call em as I see em. And it's not always the vets who spew. Some noobs are better at it then the vets

 

Cogent discussion on the internet is a slippery slope. Expecting everyone to be a debate master (or even have the rudiments of debate skills) is a recipe for disappointment. Better to debate with those, like RMA, who know how to do it and ignore the others. Those who speak primarily from emotion will likely not be swayed by logic anyway. There are always exceptions of course.

 

I agree, I and we all could be nicer.

 

I guess I enter into debate with anyone who is willing to do so (which means all kinds of people).

 

I agree that not everyone will be swayed and if anything on the boards is true very few people are ever swayed. I just like the discussion and believe at my core that debate/argument is about progress overall.

 

Being nicer can help, I will keep that in mind. Thank you for your perspective.

 

I like seeing when two people fall in love on the internets

It's not possible for me to be nicer. I'm already the sweetest guy I know.

 

[Jeffro.]

I am starting another thread on a silver age key that everyone forgets about that could easily crack the top 20, and anyone who thinks there is NO demand for this other book I just wish that it were true

 

 

I read the thread, color me unimpressed.

 

For someone who desires discussion, you are quick to be snide and dismissive.

 

Ok, sorry you feel that way.

 

I was just expressing that 1950's point of view and posting on this topic and the other thread he started has been in a word "silly." I don't know if I was being snide, but I agree I was being dismissive. Based the posts, I felt dismissive was an appropriate response given the lack of reasoning in his arguments.

 

I do crave discussion but get easily frustrated when people do not string together cohesive arguments or back up their assertions with more than unedited personal opinions. We all have our flaws, I admit this is one of mine.

 

Probably wasn't the nicest thing I have said, but certainly not anywhere near the vicious posts I have seen on here from a number of veterans. Maybe I should have been nicer.

 

:shrug:

 

In general, we can all be nicer. People are going to be who they are on the web. However, when I see comments such as yours, I call em as I see em. And it's not always the vets who spew. Some noobs are better at it then the vets

 

Cogent discussion on the internet is a slippery slope. Expecting everyone to be a debate master (or even have the rudiments of debate skills) is a recipe for disappointment. Better to debate with those, like RMA, who know how to do it and ignore the others. Those who speak primarily from emotion will likely not be swayed by logic anyway. There are always exceptions of course.

 

I agree, I and we all could be nicer.

 

I guess I enter into debate with anyone who is willing to do so (which means all kinds of people).

 

I agree that not everyone will be swayed and if anything on the boards is true very few people are ever swayed. I just like the discussion and believe at my core that debate/argument is about progress overall.

 

Being nicer can help, I will keep that in mind. Thank you for your perspective.

 

I like seeing when two people fall in love on the internets

It's not possible for me to be nicer. I'm already the sweetest guy I know.

 

 

I'm getting diabetes

[roulette44]

Simple. Look at every other SA key that sells for more in the same grade. Now cross-reference that with the books that are also much, MUCH more common. This is an extremely LONG list of books that have more demand even though they are also more common.

 

I agree (and have said) the book is VERY rare -- but your proof of that point makes no sense to me at all. But rather than get too sucked up into proof reconciliation, just tell me what measures you propose using?

 

if we argue (as some do) that a high grade copy's market value should be the yardstick, then OOAW83 in my view is right up there (unfortunately, so few copies to test theory on)

 

if we argue (as some also do) that an average of various grades (low to high) should be the proxy, then I think OOAW83 falls a bit, staying a top 20 or so book, but not getting much higher.

 

my point has continued to be that the demand is well lower than your typical book, but the supply is "more lower". Simple, proveable. it's where this connects to value that gets a little trickier and takes us back to the earlier points

 

Finally (and no offense), but not being able to recognize this book and being a long-time collector? I would bet odds that this book is recognizable to the vast majority of folks (particularly those willing to shell out big money).

[Gatsby77]

Good post.

 

The reason this gets tricky is the dearth of high-grade copies relative to the other top 20 SA keys, when Overstreets sets the value based on the 9.2 value.

 

This is why I advocate using the CGC 4.0 sales data as a proxy -- because we have 3 recent sales within the last six months. We _know_ the value in CGC 4.0 is ~$2,050.

 

Yes - the market for 4.0 is not equal to the market for high-grade (8.5+) copies, but to a certain extent demand should trickle down. As a middle class (i.e., not rich) SA collector, it's irrelevant to me that a CGC 9.0 Showcase 22 sold a few years ago for $60k, or that a 9.0 OAAW 83, were it to service *might* sell for $60k.

 

What I do know is that, based on recent recorded sales, current FMV of both Showcase 22 and OAAW 83 in CGC 5.0 is the same, ~$2,400. And both are on my want list, in that grade, at that price level.

 

Given that, which book deserves a higher place on the list comes down to liquidity and potential. I'd argue that Showcase 22 is and will continue to be a more important book than OAAW 83, and thus deserves to be higher on the Top 20 list.

 

While that seems to be an argument that OAAW 83 might breach the top 10 (given that Showcase 22 is currently # 9), it's not. Because a similar analysis would have to be given to current and potential FMV of Avengers 1, Brave & Bold 28, Tales to Astonish 27, etc.

 

Since the Top 20 list is based on relative values. To move higher than 18, OAAW 83 has to beat each book above it, most of which are Marvel superhero keys that are trending up (in value and demand).

 

It's analogous to "What is the best movie of 1994?" At the time, many folks picked Pulp Fiction. Forrest Gump edged it out to win Best Picture. 20 years later, there's consensus that the best picture was actually The Shawshank Redemption.

 

Each of those three films could have won Best Picture in 1993 or 1995, but the relative competition that particular year made (and makes) it far more difficult to decide.

 

 

[jjeanius]

Simple. Look at every other SA key that sells for more in the same grade. Now cross-reference that with the books that are also much, MUCH more common. This is an extremely LONG list of books that have more demand even though they are also more common.

 

I agree (and have said) the book is VERY rare -- but your proof of that point makes no sense to me at all. But rather than get too sucked up into proof reconciliation, just tell me what measures you propose using?

 

if we argue (as some do) that a high grade copy's market value should be the yardstick, then OOAW83 in my view is right up there (unfortunately, so few copies to test theory on)

 

if we argue (as some also do) that an average of various grades (low to high) should be the proxy, then I think OOAW83 falls a bit, staying a top 20 or so book, but not getting much higher.

 

my point has continued to be that the demand is well lower than your typical book, but the supply is "more lower". Simple, proveable. it's where this connects to value that gets a little trickier and takes us back to the earlier points

 

Finally (and no offense), but not being able to recognize this book and being a long-time collector? I would bet odds that this book is recognizable to the vast majority of folks (particularly those willing to shell out big money).

 

I think you are missing my point entirely. Obviously, grades can fluctuate quite a bit at the high end, which is precisely why I was not using high grade prices as a point of comparison.

 

My point is this: If you want to compare the relative demand for / popularity of OOAW 83, then you need to remove the perceived scarcity from the equation. My argument is this: If the value of OOAW 83 in VG is the same as that of a much more common book in the same grade, then the other book is in more demand, as there are more buyers for this book that are offsetting the disparity in availability. Get it?

 

You are right, I must not have recognized this book since I was never able to afford it.

 

Shocking that I can recognize Action 1 and Tec 27, though.

[Jeffro.]

Well, given that at one time, OAAW 81 was considered the first appearance, not many people would have recognized 83. People tend to forget that part of the equation. No one disputes that AF15 or Action 1 is the first app of comic characters.

Hell, at one time GI Combat 68 was considered the first appearance of Rock.

 

83 has had, and still does have, a lot of ground to make up.

[thecollectron]

I'm a fan of OAAW and I think #83 is a significant SA key, but even so, I don't think it will crack the top 5 anytime soon. As others on this thread have stated, it would have to jump over too many superhero keys.

Although,...in GA, superhero books that have been sacred for decades have moved down the ranks and Pep #22 is moving up, so never say never about anything in this hobby.

If Sgt. Rock could make a multiverse crossover in an upcoming Avengers or Guardians of the Galaxy movie sequel then OAAW #83 would take off like a...rocket.

 

[bronze johnny]

I'm a fan of OAAW and I think #83 is a significant SA key, but even so, I don't think it will crack the top 5 anytime soon. As others on this thread have stated, it would have to jump over too many superhero keys.

Although,...in GA, superhero books that have been sacred for decades have moved down the ranks and Pep #22 is moving up, so never say never about anything in this hobby.

If Sgt. Rock could make a multiverse crossover in an upcoming Avengers or Guardians of the Galaxy movie sequel then OAAW #83 would take off like a...rocket.

 

Pep 22 is a great comparison to 83. Both are similar in terms of relative scarcity when compared to the superhero keys of each book's respective era. When did Pep 22's rise up the GA hierarchy start?

 

Agreed as to 83 needing some additional "factor" to give the book a boost. Only problem is that DC's priorities are generally exclusive to its core group of superheroes. For this reason, I don't see 83 moving higher up the list in the foreseeable future- especially where the higher ranked superhero books continue to receive support from their publishers (re: movies, tv, video games, etc.). Let's give credit to 83 for making the top 20 SA keys without having the aforementioned support- a testament to how this major SA key is standing on its own in a collector's based market where speculators running around in search of the next "movie related key" lack a real understanding of the significance the greatest war key has in the history of the American Comic Book.

[oakman29]

Well, given that at one time, OAAW 81 was considered the first appearance, not many people would have recognized 83. People tend to forget that part of the equation. No one disputes that AF15 or Action 1 is the first app of comic characters.

Hell, at one time GI Combat 68 was considered the first appearance of Rock.

 

83 has had, and still does have, a lot of ground to make up.

 

I'm still in the camp where 81 is the 1st app. of the Rock.

[Lazyboy]

I'm a fan of OAAW and I think #83 is a significant SA key, but even so, I don't think it will crack the top 5 anytime soon. As others on this thread have stated, it would have to jump over too many superhero keys.

Although,...in GA, superhero books that have been sacred for decades have moved down the ranks and Pep #22 is moving up, so never say never about anything in this hobby.

If Sgt. Rock could make a multiverse crossover in an upcoming Avengers or Guardians of the Galaxy movie sequel then OAAW #83 would take off like a...rocket.

 

Pep 22 is a great comparison to 83.

Yeah, I love reading the Sgt. Rock strip in the paper and seeing the Sgt. Rock digests at the supermarket checkouts and reading the few dozen hundreds of Sgt. Rock issues that have been published in the last 25 years.

[bronze johnny]

I'm a fan of OAAW and I think #83 is a significant SA key, but even so, I don't think it will crack the top 5 anytime soon. As others on this thread have stated, it would have to jump over too many superhero keys.

Although,...in GA, superhero books that have been sacred for decades have moved down the ranks and Pep #22 is moving up, so never say never about anything in this hobby.

If Sgt. Rock could make a multiverse crossover in an upcoming Avengers or Guardians of the Galaxy movie sequel then OAAW #83 would take off like a...rocket.

 

Pep 22 is a great comparison to 83.

Yeah, I love reading the Sgt. Rock strip in the paper and seeing the Sgt. Rock digests at the supermarket checkouts and reading the few dozen hundreds of Sgt. Rock issues that have been published in the last 25 years.

 

Point taken but do you attribute Pep 22's rise in the GA ranks to people reading Archie Comics and Digests over the last 25 years? Any idea what % of the comic book market Archie Comics is in terms of sales?

 

[Lazyboy]

Point taken but do you attribute Pep 22's rise in the GA ranks to people reading Archie Comics and Digests over the last 25 years?

 

Just saying that Archie is a much more visible and well known character.

 

Any idea what % of the comic book market Archie Comics is in terms of sales?

 

Less than Batman, more than Sgt. Rock?

[bronze johnny]

Point taken but do you attribute Pep 22's rise in the GA ranks to people reading Archie Comics and Digests over the last 25 years?

 

Just saying that Archie is a much more visible and well known character.

 

Any idea what % of the comic book market Archie Comics is in terms of sales?

 

Less than Batman, more than Sgt. Rock?

 

What we need is an "Archie Meets Sgt. Rock " Mini-series.

[roulette44]

[thirdgreenham]

Point taken but do you attribute Pep 22's rise in the GA ranks to people reading Archie Comics and Digests over the last 25 years?

 

Just saying that Archie is a much more visible and well known character.

 

Any idea what % of the comic book market Archie Comics is in terms of sales?

 

Less than Batman, more than Sgt. Rock?

 

What we need is an "Archie Meets Sgt. Rock " Mini-series.

 

It would certainly help Rock's exposure. (thumbs u

[goldust40]

Point taken but do you attribute Pep 22's rise in the GA ranks to people reading Archie Comics and Digests over the last 25 years?

 

Just saying that Archie is a much more visible and well known character.

 

Any idea what % of the comic book market Archie Comics is in terms of sales?

 

Less than Batman, more than Sgt. Rock?

 

What we need is an "Archie Meets Sgt. Rock " Mini-series.

 

It would certainly help Rock's exposure. (thumbs u

 

This song would help if it was given heavy rotation on nationwide radio stations.

 

[jjeanius]

DC published a millennium edition of OOAW 81, which certainly implies that even DC considers 81 to be the first Sgt. Rock. So...how did public opinion on this one change (and what is to stop it from reverting back?

 

IMO, this debate also limits upside of this book.

[goldust40]

DC published a millennium edition of OOAW 81, which certainly implies that even DC considers 81 to be the first Sgt. Rock. So...how did public opinion on this one change (and what is to stop it from reverting back?

 

IMO, this debate also limits upside of this book.

 

My guess is that on this particular occasion DC were following fan consensus rather than making it clear to fandom which issue contained his actual first appearance. Because there were quite a few prototype appearances of the character spread over several years before DC arrived at the definitive version, this was practically a unique case in that regard - fandom dictating to the publisher which was the genuine first one.

 

Fan opinion changed due to Chris Pedrin's Big 5 book explaining that the character in OAAW 81 was Sgt. Rocky, not Rock. Within a few years, the consensus changed. I don't see it reverting back, however, even though 81 is still a highly significant issue.

[Jeffro.]

DC published a millennium edition of OOAW 81, which certainly implies that even DC considers 81 to be the first Sgt. Rock. So...how did public opinion on this one change (and what is to stop it from reverting back?

 

IMO, this debate also limits upside of this book.

 

In the Sgt Rock hardcover archive book, DC published GI Combat 68, OAAW 81,82, and 83. What does that tell us about DC's position on which is the true first appearance?