Are key comics good investments?

[NewWorldOrder]

You've been wrong predicting the demise of this hobby at least 10 years in a row, perhaps it is time to change predictions?

 

 

No one is predicting the demise of the hobby, least of all myself. And I'm not sure how I could have been wrong for the last 10 years - have I been predicting an imminent crash/demise every year that didn't come to pass? Even now I'm talking about a generational changeover that hasn't happened yet and may not come to pass for another 10-15 years or longer. Oh, but I see what you've done here - you've taken something I said in 2005 and just linearly extrapolated it to 2015 as if nothing changed in-between. Just like you're doing with the price trend on comic book keys for the past 10 years and extrapolating past performance indefinitely into the future.

 

 

And you didn't respond to my query as to when the next crash of your beloved stock market would be

 

This statement showcases your problem in a nutshell. Comics have been good to you, you're emotionally invested as well as financially invested, and you take any suggestion that things won't be rosy forever as a personal affront and a disservice to others - they truly are "your beloved comics". On the other hand, I view the stock market as the stock market, not "my beloved stock market". I've been around long enough to know that markets go up and down. Some stocks can perform spectacularly while others can go to zero. Some zeroes can turn into heroes and vice versa. I don't get emotionally attached to stocks. Just because a stock has been good to me doesn't mean that I won't ruthlessly dispatch it from my portfolio if I think it's gotten overvalued and/or if I think the fundamentals are taking a prolonged turn for the worse.

 

I don't know when the next crash will be. What I do know is that stocks represent claims on real companies with real earnings and assets and that, over time, those companies can earn and grow their way back to recovery. In the fullness of time, good companies will make a lot of money and pay out a lot of dividends, while your comics will sit inert in their plastic tombs and require greater fools with deeper pockets to keep their prices rising. If stock prices crash, for those with a long-term horizon, it'll just give them the opportunity to buy low and earn greater returns.

 

The stock market crashed twice in the decade of the 2000s. And, yet, the S&P 500 is at an all-time high now, while many stocks that did not enter the last decade horrendously overvalued like the dot-coms have created enormous wealth over the past 15 years. Last I checked, there were no comic book investors on the Forbes 400 list, while the #2 guy on the list has kindly shown how a portfolio of productive assets can scarcely fail to outperform a portfolio of static/unproductive assets in the fullness of time. So, yeah...I think I'll stick with stocks and other productive assets over the next 20-30 years.

 

Well, there you have it. I'll have more fun playing with my beloved comics, and you'll strive to be on the Fortune list. At the end of the day, I wonder who will die happier?

 

And trust me, many of the top companies of this decade are driven by the masses which are asses, and they are the greater fools adding the the hundreds of billions of dollars the top companies enjoy. All markets are driven thusly, for the most part anyway.

 

However, I don't debate your stock acumen one iota. But your comic market acumen I do find suspect.

 

You are right, comics have been good to me, and not just financially. In ways stocks never could be good to me. Business has been much better to me financially, but not nearly as much in the intangible return on my investment

.

 

You cannot predict the future by looking backward to the past whether it is 10 years or in my case 40+..... Our comic book world has never been on a steeper Clift than it is today. The speculator controls the market prices the true comic book collectors no longer do, thanks to greed of the auction houses coupled with the cgc hype that your comic both is worth more than market price and in some instances 10 x more because our grader was in a good mood and with a special plastic case .... When true collectors are shut out.... Warning bells need to go off....

 

 

 

 

 

Wait a minute how can you tell me real collectors are shut out?

 

What exactly are they shut out from?

 

Most comics books are still very affordable.

 

 

We are tailing on this thead about "key" comics....if we are taking about non-key books then that is why is left to the true collector at both a reasonable and non speculated affordable price and everyday the word "key" gets hyped up and included by auction houses hype on more and more comic books ...... It no-longer has to be a 2+ million dollar action #1....there are kinds of books today being hyped as keys selling for multiple times or guide or reason.

 

Same hype as with the stock market or oil prices.

 

Most keys however are still affordable.

 

Hulk 181 while having boost in pricing is still affordable in most grades under 9.0.

[Jaydogrules]

+1

 

Only a bona fide crack head would believe Uber is "worth" $41 billion and that the stock market is legitimately at 18k. If you're going to be losing sleep, you need to be losing sleep over that.

 

At least if my AF 15 goes down to $0 I still own the first appearance of spider-man. That, my friend, is where the intrinsic value of funny books lie.

 

-J.

 

You're right, the intrinsic value of funny books is near zero. If the stock market goes down from here, it will generate earnings and make up the losses in time. If comic books fail to attract greater fools with deeper pockets, they have nothing to fall back on.

 

I suspect that Uber isn't worth $50 billion, but, since they're not public and we can't see their financials, I don't know how overvalued they might be or whether they might be able to grow into their valuation or not. In any case, pointing out Uber - which doesn't even have publicly traded stock - as an example of why stocks are overvalued, is like pointing out FF #45 or some other movie-hyped book to show that all comics are overvalued. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 18K trades at less than 16x earnings - hardly evidence of a bubble.

 

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

[thunsicker]

I think the main thing is that most people acknowledge that the stock market can correct. Many are in denial that the comics market can too.

[rjrjr]

+1

 

Only a bona fide crack head would believe Uber is "worth" $41 billion and that the stock market is legitimately at 18k. If you're going to be losing sleep, you need to be losing sleep over that.

 

At least if my AF 15 goes down to $0 I still own the first appearance of spider-man. That, my friend, is where the intrinsic value of funny books lie.

 

-J.

 

You're right, the intrinsic value of funny books is near zero. If the stock market goes down from here, it will generate earnings and make up the losses in time. If comic books fail to attract greater fools with deeper pockets, they have nothing to fall back on.

 

I suspect that Uber isn't worth $50 billion, but, since they're not public and we can't see their financials, I don't know how overvalued they might be or whether they might be able to grow into their valuation or not. In any case, pointing out Uber - which doesn't even have publicly traded stock - as an example of why stocks are overvalued, is like pointing out FF #45 or some other movie-hyped book to show that all comics are overvalued. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 18K trades at less than 16x earnings - hardly evidence of a bubble.

 

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

J. read the subject of this thread. It very much appears he is on the right site and in the right thread too. (thumbs u

 

Nothing wrong with a healthy discussion without all the hyperbole most posts bring to threads concerning comic book speculation. In fact, I've found this thread pretty informative. On one hand, you have people passionate about comics who refuse to see the possibility some high priced keys might not be a good investment and on the other hand we have others who refuse to see that some key comics might be a good investment. Personally, I fall more in the later camp, but that is only because I want to retire someday and do not want to count on my comics as an investment. But, if my comics are worth something, all the better.

[delekkerste]

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site? It sounds like you think you're on ZeroHedge or some other site where tinfoil hat-wearing crackpots congregate.

 

The only thing ironic is that you think stocks are fueled by funny money and irrational exuberance and comics are not.

[Mmehdy]

I think the main thing is that most people acknowledge that the stock market can correct. Many are in denial that the comics market can too.

 

That is the real fear here.... The speculators run with there tail between their legs.. And with a declining collector base... Recovery is impossible... We do not have a record of total crash and and total recovery... Since 1929 the stock market has.

[Hamlet]

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site? It sounds like you think you're on ZeroHedge or some other site where tinfoil hat-wearing crackpots congregate.

 

The only thing ironic is that you think stocks are fueled by funny money and irrational exuberance and comics are not.

 

Come on Gene, anyone who reads the gold thread knows that you are a mindless permabull for the stock market.

[Jaydogrules]

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site? It sounds like you think you're on ZeroHedge or some other site where tinfoil hat-wearing crackpots congregate.

 

The only thing ironic is that you think stocks are fueled by funny money and irrational exuberance and comics are not.

 

I actually stated my measured thoughts on the subject earlier in the thread, which were comparable to what rjrjr stated above.

 

And the difference between "irrational exuberance" in comics versus the stock market is that when or if one or two or some or even most comic books "correct" (because it won't likely be "all"), it won't take the entire country down into a recession, bankrupt pension funds and little old ladies, and have people jumping out of windows. I think the vast majority of people on here have already stated that they have a minimal amount of their "net worth" tied up in comics and don't really care what their books are worth. Yet you continue to belabor your same negative points to those who are basically fanboys who just want to enjoy their hobby with the prospect of any potential future financial gain being gravy.

 

I really don't know what you are hoping to accomplish at this point, other than doing this to anyone who should dare to actually have a positive opinion about the state and future of this hobby which has already managed to survive and thrive for nearly a hundred years:

 

-J.

[COI]

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site? It sounds like you think you're on ZeroHedge or some other site where tinfoil hat-wearing crackpots congregate.

 

The only thing ironic is that you think stocks are fueled by funny money and irrational exuberance and comics are not.

 

I actually stated my measured thoughts on the subject earlier in the thread, which were comparable to what rjrjr stated above.

 

And the difference between "irrational exuberance" in comics versus the stock market is that when or if one or two or some or even most comic books "correct" (because it won't likely be "all"), it won't take the entire country down into a recession, bankrupt pension funds and little old ladies, and have people jumping out of windows. I think the vast majority of people on here have already stated that they have a minimal amount of their "net worth" tied up in comics and don't really care what their books are worth. Yet you continue to belabor your same negative points to those who are basically fanboys who just want to enjoy their hobby with the prospect of any potential future financial gain being gravy.

 

I really don't know what you are hoping to accomplish at this point, other than doing this to anyone who should dare to actually have a positive opinion about the state and future of this hobby which has already managed to survive and thrive for nearly a hundred years:

 

-J.

 

The topic of this thread is "Are key comics good investments?", and this is a discussion forum which exists for discussing things. His point of view is that they may not be good investments for a variety of reasons. It's not like he's going around from thread to thread, badgering people for buying comics in this market for inflated prices.

 

What are you looking to accomplish by telling him that his opinions, which are on-topic and relevant to this thread, aren't welcome because "comics are FUN!"? In what way is "comics are FUN!" relevant to the question posed by the OP, especially since it doesn't follow from anything Gene has said that people shouldn't be buying comics or enjoying the hobby?

 

If comics are nothing but FUN!, then why click on a thread about investing in the first place?

[Jaydogrules]

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site? It sounds like you think you're on ZeroHedge or some other site where tinfoil hat-wearing crackpots congregate.

 

The only thing ironic is that you think stocks are fueled by funny money and irrational exuberance and comics are not.

 

I actually stated my measured thoughts on the subject earlier in the thread, which were comparable to what rjrjr stated above.

 

And the difference between "irrational exuberance" in comics versus the stock market is that when or if one or two or some or even most comic books "correct" (because it won't likely be "all"), it won't take the entire country down into a recession, bankrupt pension funds and little old ladies, and have people jumping out of windows. I think the vast majority of people on here have already stated that they have a minimal amount of their "net worth" tied up in comics and don't really care what their books are worth. Yet you continue to belabor your same negative points to those who are basically fanboys who just want to enjoy their hobby with the prospect of any potential future financial gain being gravy.

 

I really don't know what you are hoping to accomplish at this point, other than doing this to anyone who should dare to actually have a positive opinion about the state and future of this hobby which has already managed to survive and thrive for nearly a hundred years:

 

-J.

 

The topic of this thread is "Are key comics good investments?", and this is a discussion forum which exists for discussing things. His point of view is that they may not be good investments for a variety of reasons. It's not like he's going around from thread to thread, badgering people for buying comics in this market for inflated prices.

 

What are you looking to accomplish by telling him that his opinions, which are on-topic and relevant to this thread, aren't welcome because "comics are FUN!"? In what way is "comics are FUN!" relevant to the question posed by the OP, especially since it doesn't follow from anything Gene has said that people shouldn't be buying comics or enjoying the hobby?

 

If comics are nothing but FUN!, then why click on a thread about investing in the first place?

 

You may want to re-read my post because you clearly missed the point of it. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[COI]

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site? It sounds like you think you're on ZeroHedge or some other site where tinfoil hat-wearing crackpots congregate.

 

The only thing ironic is that you think stocks are fueled by funny money and irrational exuberance and comics are not.

 

I actually stated my measured thoughts on the subject earlier in the thread, which were comparable to what rjrjr stated above.

 

And the difference between "irrational exuberance" in comics versus the stock market is that when or if one or two or some or even most comic books "correct" (because it won't likely be "all"), it won't take the entire country down into a recession, bankrupt pension funds and little old ladies, and have people jumping out of windows. I think the vast majority of people on here have already stated that they have a minimal amount of their "net worth" tied up in comics and don't really care what their books are worth. Yet you continue to belabor your same negative points to those who are basically fanboys who just want to enjoy their hobby with the prospect of any potential future financial gain being gravy.

 

I really don't know what you are hoping to accomplish at this point, other than doing this to anyone who should dare to actually have a positive opinion about the state and future of this hobby which has already managed to survive and thrive for nearly a hundred years:

 

-J.

 

The topic of this thread is "Are key comics good investments?", and this is a discussion forum which exists for discussing things. His point of view is that they may not be good investments for a variety of reasons. It's not like he's going around from thread to thread, badgering people for buying comics in this market for inflated prices.

 

What are you looking to accomplish by telling him that his opinions, which are on-topic and relevant to this thread, aren't welcome because "comics are FUN!"? In what way is "comics are FUN!" relevant to the question posed by the OP, especially since it doesn't follow from anything Gene has said that people shouldn't be buying comics or enjoying the hobby?

 

If comics are nothing but FUN!, then why click on a thread about investing in the first place?

 

You may want to re-read my post because you clearly missed the point of it. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

I didn't miss the point. You're questioning the logic of being bullish about the stock market, while being bearish about comics, when the stakes of a stock market crash are much higher than a comic market crash. I get your point. But this thread is about comics, and I don't see how his position on the stock market is in any way relevant to his arguments about why comics aren't a good investment, in a thread about comics as investments. If he's belaboring the point about comics, it's because that's what we're here to talk about. And if you think the surge in prices isn't the result of a silent majority speculating beyond what they could afford to lose on FF 45s, then I say where's the proof? It defies logic.

[Mmehdy]

I find it ironic that you are on a comic book enthusiast site extolling the virtues of a massively bloated and horrifically over-valued stock market that is being fueled by nothing more than FED funny money and irrational exuberance in the tech industry (what short term memories people have indeed), and not, you know, actual fundamentals, while having nothing but unsupported and unabated negativity to spout about a HOBBY that is supposed to be FUN.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site my man ?

 

-J.

 

Are you sure you're on the right site? It sounds like you think you're on ZeroHedge or some other site where tinfoil hat-wearing crackpots congregate.

 

The only thing ironic is that you think stocks are fueled by funny money and irrational exuberance and comics are not.

 

I actually stated my measured thoughts on the subject earlier in the thread, which were comparable to what rjrjr stated above.

 

And the difference between "irrational exuberance" in comics versus the stock market is that when or if one or two or some or even most comic books "correct" (because it won't likely be "all"), it won't take the entire country down into a recession, bankrupt pension funds and little old ladies, and have people jumping out of windows. I think the vast majority of people on here have already stated that they have a minimal amount of their "net worth" tied up in comics and don't really care what their books are worth. Yet you continue to belabor your same negative points to those who are basically fanboys who just want to enjoy their hobby with the prospect of any potential future financial gain being gravy.

 

I really don't know what you are hoping to accomplish at this point, other than doing this to anyone who should dare to actually have a positive opinion about the state and future of this hobby which has already managed to survive and thrive for nearly a hundred years:

 

-J.

 

The topic of this thread is "Are key comics good investments?", and this is a discussion forum which exists for discussing things. His point of view is that they may not be good investments for a variety of reasons. It's not like he's going around from thread to thread, badgering people for buying comics in this market for inflated prices.

 

What are you looking to accomplish by telling him that his opinions, which are on-topic and relevant to this thread, aren't welcome because "comics are FUN!"? In what way is "comics are FUN!" relevant to the question posed by the OP, especially since it doesn't follow from anything Gene has said that people shouldn't be buying comics or enjoying the hobby?

 

If comics are nothing but FUN!, then why click on a thread about investing in the first place?

 

Because the "FUN" comics now cost you a "investment" size paycheck due to the bubble.

[Gatsby77]

Agreed with the above.

 

Gene's Warren Buffett-style argument that comics aren't a Class A investment because they are "non-productive" is both specious and hypcritical.

 

Specious, because collectibles can (and have) out-perform(ed) stocks across several time horizons.

 

And hypocritical, because Gene at one point advocated buying gold (another non-productive asset class) here on these boards.

 

As has been stated above, arbitrage is _far_ easier in comics than in stocks.

 

Ex. I bought a slabbed Showcase 4 via Craigslist for 15% under market. Sold it 15 months later (to Gator, no less) for a handsome profit.

[revat]

Agreed with the above.

 

Gene's Warren Buffett-style argument that comics aren't a Class A investment because they are "non-productive" is both specious and hypcritical.

 

Specious, because collectibles can (and have) out-perform(ed) stocks across several time horizons.

 

And hypocritical, because Gene at one point advocated buying gold (another non-productive asset class) here on these boards.

 

As has been stated above, arbitrage is _far_ easier in comics than in stocks.

 

Ex. I bought a slabbed Showcase 4 via Craigslist for 15% under market. Sold it 15 months later (to Gator, no less) for a handsome profit.

 

I'm surprised your last point hasn't been brought up before. That is a significant difference between comics and the stock market.

 

 

BUT like just about every other investment, You can collect available information and opinions, analyze your research, gauge your financial and risk preferences and goals, and make your decision, hopefully giving yourself the best chance at success, even though there's no guarantees. And with some intelligence, astute analysis, and maybe a little luck, you can be successful. So the while ultimately the market and future will decide the result, the current 'right choice' is unique to all of us, and at some point the marginal value of new arguments gets very close to zero, and its just like arguing for/against Keynesian economics or ice cream flavors. There's very sound arguments to be made in vacuums, but there's very few vacuums in the real world (aside from actual vacuums).

 

 

[oakman29]

Getting a little hot in here...

 

I left this conversation a while ago. I'll be happy with my funny books,nuff said for me.

[Mmehdy]

Agreed with the above.

 

Gene's Warren Buffett-style argument that comics aren't a Class A investment because they are "non-productive" is both specious and hypcritical.

 

Specious, because collectibles can (and have) out-perform(ed) stocks across several time horizons.

 

And hypocritical, because Gene at one point advocated buying gold (another non-productive asset class) here on these boards.

 

As has been stated above, arbitrage is _far_ easier in comics than in stocks.

 

Ex. I bought a slabbed Showcase 4 via Craigslist for 15% under market. Sold it 15 months later (to Gator, no less) for a handsome profit.

 

One profitable sale does not make a "market" and this condition...this time of "speculation " where prices seem irrational applies not only to this commodity market...but to every investment market, I think that is Gene's point here. Comic books encased in CGC holders are for investment/speculation...not necessarly for a true comic book collector. They have turned these books into wigets, who cares what they are really....its all about the money, not the art. Every commodity market is going to have to be ruled by the laws of economics. Stamps,coins, cards, gold...and comics.

As a true collector, I like to touch and smell and look thru my comic book, collectors edition or not. When you put a comic book in a "bubble" plastic container....and hype the value of that simply because its graded and encased and make a case that it is more valuable than market price...many times over...we have a real problem. True market conditions will win out over the long run...the speculator will not and I believe that is Gene's point.

[revat]

Agreed with the above.

 

Gene's Warren Buffett-style argument that comics aren't a Class A investment because they are "non-productive" is both specious and hypcritical.

 

Specious, because collectibles can (and have) out-perform(ed) stocks across several time horizons.

 

And hypocritical, because Gene at one point advocated buying gold (another non-productive asset class) here on these boards.

 

As has been stated above, arbitrage is _far_ easier in comics than in stocks.

 

Ex. I bought a slabbed Showcase 4 via Craigslist for 15% under market. Sold it 15 months later (to Gator, no less) for a handsome profit.

 

One profitable sale does not make a "market" and this condition...this time of "speculation " where prices seem irrational applies not only to this commodity market...but to everyone, I think that is Gene's point here. Comic books encased in CGC holders are for investment/speculation...not necessarly for a true comic book collector. They have turned these books into wigets, who cares what they really....its all about the money, not the art.

As a true collector, I like to touch and smell and look thru my comic book, collectors edition or not. When you put a comic book in a "bubble" plastic container....and hype the value of that simply because its graded and encased and make a case that it is more valuable than market price...many times over...we have a real problem. True market conditions will win out over the long run...the speculator will not.

 

but the true (and successful) speculator will have already sold well before the big dip or decline. Any one who doesn't is either a collector (good for you!) or someone who's relatively price indifferent (congrats to you too!), or a crappy speculator who would have lost out eventually anyways because they're not good at making investments. People always forget, there's two sides to investing, knowing when to buy AND knowing when to sell. Being great at one or the other is ok, but honestly if you can't devote resources to being good at both, you should probably be paying someone to do your investing for you, or at least advising you.

 

Comics can be a GREAT investment, but the less objectively you look at them (and that's hard for many people), the less likely your chances of being successful. You need to see them as a bag of coffee beans or a pile of stock certificates.

[Mmehdy]

Agreed with the above.

 

Gene's Warren Buffett-style argument that comics aren't a Class A investment because they are "non-productive" is both specious and hypcritical.

 

Specious, because collectibles can (and have) out-perform(ed) stocks across several time horizons.

 

And hypocritical, because Gene at one point advocated buying gold (another non-productive asset class) here on these boards.

 

As has been stated above, arbitrage is _far_ easier in comics than in stocks.

 

Ex. I bought a slabbed Showcase 4 via Craigslist for 15% under market. Sold it 15 months later (to Gator, no less) for a handsome profit.

 

One profitable sale does not make a "market" and this condition...this time of "speculation " where prices seem irrational applies not only to this commodity market...but to everyone, I think that is Gene's point here. Comic books encased in CGC holders are for investment/speculation...not necessarly for a true comic book collector. They have turned these books into wigets, who cares what they really....its all about the money, not the art.

As a true collector, I like to touch and smell and look thru my comic book, collectors edition or not. When you put a comic book in a "bubble" plastic container....and hype the value of that simply because its graded and encased and make a case that it is more valuable than market price...many times over...we have a real problem. True market conditions will win out over the long run...the speculator will not.

 

but the true (and successful) speculator will have already sold well before the big dip or decline. Any one who doesn't is either a collector (good for you!) or someone who's relatively price indifferent (congrats to you too!), or a crappy speculator who would have lost out eventually anyways because they're not good at making investments. People always forget, there's two sides to investing, knowing when to buy AND knowing when to sell. Being great at one or the other is ok, but honestly if you can't devote resources to being good at both, you should probably be paying someone to do your investing for you, or at least advising you.

 

Comics can be a GREAT investment, but the less objectively you look at them (and that's hard for many people), the less likely your chances of being successful. You need to see them as a bag of coffee beans or a pile of stock certificates.

 

A bag of coffee beans...a head of cattle...its a shame our comic book collecting world has come to that.....you just might be right....have all of us become speculators....where we are chasing the money...not the comic book and the beauty of the art....what kind of collectors world are we gonna leave to other collectors in the next 20 years....and when there is no more money to be made... a few true collectors will be left to pick up the pieces....we need to correct this market and give it back to the real collectors....but that is what the laws of economic reality are for...

[Hulksdaddy1]

Sold my house, cars, all my worldly possessions. Cashed out my SEP, IRAS, and every other investment I had.

 

I now live in a structure composed entirely of slabbed keys.

 

How'em I doin'?

[delekkerste]

Agreed with the above.

 

Gene's Warren Buffett-style argument that comics aren't a Class A investment because they are "non-productive" is both specious and hypcritical.

 

Specious, because collectibles can (and have) out-perform(ed) stocks across several time horizons.

 

Jeez, the guy makes a few bucks in comics and thinks he's smarter than Warren Buffett.

 

Over the long run, stocks have beaten every other asset class. Some collectibles have outperformed stocks across certain time horizons, but it's hard to know ex ante which are going to outperform and when, because collectibles have a curious way of going in and out of fashion (sometimes permanently). To say that comics have outperformed for the last 75 or 100 years is a truly specious argument. No one buying Action #1 for 10 cents was investing in it, and you couldn't have put more than a couple of bucks into it at the time anyway. And, even though the hobby has been around for decades, the market was horribly fragmented and illiquid until the Internet and later third party grading facilitated peer to peer sales/trades and leveled the playing field. The hobby has not truly been "investable" for a very long part of its history.

 

If you caught the revaluation from the low base to where we are today, you did well if you bought the top key comics. It is utterly mind-boggling to me, though, that so many of you fail to recognize that, buying non-productive assets after they have been revalued significantly higher due to the aforementioned factors and others, is not likely to produce the same kind of historical returns as in the past. And, in fact, may be subject to mean reversion, slower growth rates or even declines. Not to mention completely ignoring what is happening outside of your little comic world microcosm as well as how the collector base has/is/will change going forward. You're simply extrapolating the recent past indefinitely into the future.

 

It's really not a wonder why stocks have outperformed over time - as the economy grows over time, companies generate more earnings, earnings which can make up for any temporary setback (I'm talking about the market as a whole; of course some stocks can do spectacularly better or, alternatively, tank to zero). The companies that comprise the stock market relentlessly create value over time. Owners of non-productive assets, on the other hand, always need to find that next buyer to pay more...for the same thing. Collectibles create nothing and are subject to the whims and tastes of each succeeding generation. The deck is stacked in favor of productive assets over the long run.

 

 

And hypocritical, because Gene at one point advocated buying gold (another non-productive asset class) here on these boards.

 

Have I advocated buying gold in the past? Yes (but not for many years other than for short-term trading purposes). Have I advocated buying gold as something that's going to make people a lot of money as an investment? Absolutely not (again, aside from trading/speculation purposes). In fact, I've repeatedly warned guys like Roy (VintageComics) and Sid (BassGMan) that gold and other commodities mean revert to their marginal cost of production over time and that one should think of gold as an insurance policy/disaster hedge/store of value and explicitly NOT as an investment. It generates no earnings, interest, rents or dividends. An ounce of gold in a hundred years will still only be an ounce of gold. But, over time, it should at least maintain purchasing power as it has for the past 5,000 years. To me, there is some value in owning something that you know will never be worthless. But, unless you're speculating on it with huge leverage, it will never make you rich. It's not supposed to. It's a non-productive asset. So, sorry, no hypocrisy here.

 

Look, with the benefit of hindsight, we know that key comics were cheap relative to both incomes and other collectibles. But, then we got the Internet and third party grading which transformed a market hampered by illiquidity into one of the most liquid collectibles markets, causing prices to revalue significantly higher. You had technology advance to the point where great super-hero movies could be made, which gave the hobby a steroidal shot in the arm. You had the last generation of kids who grew up with comics pre-1995 come of age and hit their stride professionally. At a time when interest rates fell to near zero, asset values rocketed higher almost across the board, and fortunes were made across a ton of different industries and investment classes. Rising prices led to more money being invested into the hobby, and a whole industry ramped up around it (everything from GPAnalysis to the auction houses to more conventions, etc.) Then you had the CPR phenomenon and a marked lowering of grading standards which spurred a new frenzy. And then more movies. And even bubblier investment conditions.

 

But, that's all embedded in prices now, and, as I and others have pointed out, there are some real issues about what the collector base will look like as the years/decades roll by. Yes, more things could happen to propel prices higher, at least for a while. But, as with anything, returns eventually get harder to come by at higher values, especially if there's nothing underpinning those gains (like earnings) - even without a diminishing of the collector base.