Which of these comics is the king of the Copper age?

[carcrawfordfan]

[How many people would drop $10K on a low print 80s book that has a higher chance of pulling back versus AF 15 or a nice copy of a bigger Marvel or DC key?

 

Let';s do some math - how many ASM collectors are there in the world? And what would happen to the market if there were only *ever* 3K copies of a given newstand/direct issue?

 

 

There are a veriatable eff ton of ASM collectors out there.

 

A prime example of that is the ASM 768 Venom MJ variant.

 

The print run is likely double 3K (if not triple) and the last sale of the book in CGC 9.8 was $3400, IIRC.The sale went through this board, it's not listed in GPA.This is a book that is not even a key book in the Spidey mythos, it is a novelty piece.

 

Using that model, TMNT # 1 in CGC 9.8 still has a good amount of room for growth and can be considered just as sound of an investment (if not even better) than plunking down $10K for a slabbed AF 15.

 

This is a glowing example of why/how the relatively scarcer Copper Age keys (in high grade) strongly hold their own and represent a very viable piece of the hobby/market.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree with you in theory on TMNT/ASM , but the print run on that ASM 678 variant is well under 3k copies. It probably isn't even 1k copies. It was a 1:50 variant when the book was down and most shops didn't order enough to get even one copy.

[thecopperagekids]

Using that model, TMNT # 1 in CGC 9.8 still has a good amount of room for growth and can be considered just as sound of an investment (if not even better) than plunking down $10K for a slabbed AF 15.

 

If you view the future potential for TMNT properties as good, then this is correct, and is backed up by the capitalization data.

 

All other things being equal, the market does not value TMNT #1 as high as ASM 300 or NM 98. That could be an opportunity or just an admission that Marvel rules right now.

 

All other things are not equal.Namely the fact that you could very well log onto eBay right now and you can BUY MULTIPLE slabbed 9.8's of both NM 98 and ASM for somewhere between $900-upwards of $1500 or so a piece.

 

A TMNT 1 in 9.8 pops up for sale around once a year and invariably sells at ten times what either NM 98 or ASM 300 trade at.

 

It is also simplistic to say that Marvel rules, based on the captilization data.

 

 

The second difference is the gaping price differential between the $1000 ballpark average that 9.8's of NM 98 and ASM 300's sell at, and the $15,000 average that TMNT trades at.

 

I think TMNT 1 does have room for growth in slabbed 9.8, but I am not equating it to exponential/blue chip investment stock

 

It has dropped in price since 2011, when a 9.8 sold for $22,752 but has been trending upwards over the past calendar year.

 

The last couple of sales of 9.8's were just shy of 15K.

 

Add into the fact that there are apparently a grand total of 5 sales of TMNT 1 in 9.8 that exist in GPA.......and factor in the relatively abundantly high number of NM 98 and ASM 300 in 9.8 that are out there and it is laughable to think that the captilazation date for TMNT 1 is comparable with either NM 98 or ASM 300.

 

Of course the total dollar amount via the capitalization data of slabbed copies of TMNT 1 is much lower than either NM 98 or ASM 300.

 

This does not reveal anything, other than the fact that TMNT 1 is a scarce book, in 9.8.

 

Hell, there were 2 sales of the bootlegged printing of TMNT 1 in CGC 9.4 for over a $1000 a piece last year.........and 1st printings of #1 in slabbed VG sell for what, two or three grand?

 

What would a slabbed VG copy of ASM 300 catch....$75?

 

A slabbed NM 98 in VG would probably catch $150.

 

 

Have a look at BOTH the census and the GPA data on the 3 books and then tell me....with a straight face..... that the capitalization data can be used as an accurate measuring stick for the 3 of these books.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Spyder!]

All else equal, TMNT #1 is by far the king of the Copper Age, and it really isn't even close at all.

 

Take all three books in the same grade, same PQ, and TMNT #1 will outsell the others in every single grade.

 

Sure, but that's based almost entirely on scarcity.

 

No way in heII you can compare straight-up, an indie book with a 3K print run against a mainstream comic with a 250-500K+ print run. It's just stupid.

 

Any mathematicians willing to run the number to normalize TMNT's low print run against other CA keys, and then see how the values look then?

 

No it's not stupid to compare them that way. Supply is half of the equation when determining price. Action 1 might not be the king of the golden age (and all ages) if not due to scarcity. You can't ignore the size of the print run and speak only of demand. That is also only half of the equation. Both supply and demand together give you price. TMNT wins in every grade accounting for both factors.

[Spyder!]

If TMNT had the same print run as ASM #300 or NM #98 it would be much higher than those two.

 

No, from those numbers, it's clear that if TMNT had the same ultra-high print runs as ASM 300 or NM 98, it would be worth less in the same CGC grade.

 

Could you even imagine if for some crazy reason, Marvel only printed 3,000 copies of ASM 300? I guarantee it would easily outpace the current values of TMNT 1.

 

Once again, this represents a misunderstanding of basic ECON. The relationship between supply and price is not a straight line. You can't just say, given a print run of 3,000 and these prices, here is what prices would be with a higher print run. There is absolutely no way to know.

 

Standardizing supply gives you only a measure of demand. The question was not which book had the highest demand.

[JTLarsen]

I love using these market cap numbers. It does give us some relative notions about how much the total market values each book. Would love to see more for other books. BA 12? Who's got more stats like these? Bring 'em on!

[joe_collector]

Have a look at BOTH the census and the GPA data on the 3 books and then tell me....with a straight face..... that the capitalization data can be used as an accurate measuring stick for the 3 of these books.

 

Huh? Are you saying that the capitalization data *only* includes CGC 9.8 data?

 

I was under the impression that it included ALL CGC copies of ALL grades, which would make it a valid comparison.

[joe_collector]

Once again, this represents a misunderstanding of basic ECON. The relationship between supply and price is not a straight line. You can't just say, given a print run of 3,000 and these prices, here is what prices would be with a higher print run. There is absolutely no way to know.

 

Sorry Dr Economist, we're just ESTIMATING here, not putting forth a mysterious formula for the Nobel prize. lol

[joe_collector]

No way in heII you can compare straight-up, an indie book with a 3K print run against a mainstream comic with a 250-500K+ print run. It's just stupid.

 

No it's not stupid to compare them that way.

 

Of course it is, as we're talking about price. A popular book with a print run of only 3,000 will always sell for a higher price than a similarly-popular book (from the same era) with a print of of 500,000.

 

Ignoring the print run when examining resale value is insane.

[peakoilhater]

It all depends on how the deadpool movie does next year. If it becomes a popular franchise I'd go with NM 98. If it is a flop, I'd stick with TNMT #1. There's something like 6000 NM 98 on the census right now and over 1000 of them in 9.8 or better. But to think of it, there are far less copies of NM 98 than Spawn #1 which I think had a print run of over one million.

[Spyder!]

No way in heII you can compare straight-up, an indie book with a 3K print run against a mainstream comic with a 250-500K+ print run. It's just stupid.

 

No it's not stupid to compare them that way.

 

Of course it is, as we're talking about price. A popular book with a print run of only 3,000 will always sell for a higher price than a similarly-popular book (from the same era) with a print of of 500,000.

 

Ignoring the print run when examining resale value is insane.

 

I am not saying that we should ignore the print run. I am saying that a smaller print run should not hurt TMNT in the discussion for King of the Copper Age. When we look only at demand (popularity) that is incorrect, and when we look only at supply (print run) that is also incorrect.

 

One issue is that you can't disentangle the two effects. You can't say ASM 300 or NM 98 is more popular because more people own it, because this is also dependent on price. What would demand for TMNT 1 look like at ASM 300 prices? Once again, we have no way of knowing.

[joe_collector]

I am not saying that we should ignore the print run. I am saying that a smaller print run should not hurt TMNT in the discussion for King of the Copper Age.

 

Agreed, but this all devolved once some geniuses starting posting the usual "TMNT sells for more than ASM 300 or NM 98, so it wins hands down" type drivel.

[Spyder!]

I am not saying that we should ignore the print run. I am saying that a smaller print run should not hurt TMNT in the discussion for King of the Copper Age.

 

Agreed, but this all devolved once some geniuses starting posting the usual "TMNT sells for more than ASM 300 or NM 98, so it wins hands down" type drivel.

 

Once again, that's not drivel! Rather than live in a made up world where we guess what prices would be with different print runs, or what demand would be at different prices, why not go with what we do know? Actual prices that come from both the actual supply and actual demand? That's the only real data here.

[joe_collector]

I am not saying that we should ignore the print run. I am saying that a smaller print run should not hurt TMNT in the discussion for King of the Copper Age.

 

Agreed, but this all devolved once some geniuses starting posting the usual "TMNT sells for more than ASM 300 or NM 98, so it wins hands down" type drivel.

 

Once again, that's not drivel! Rather than live in a made up world where we guess what prices would be with different print runs, or what demand would be at different prices, why not go with what we do know? Actual prices that come from both the actual supply and actual demand? That's the only real data here.

 

Okay, I think I may have opened the Door To Madness and I didn't realize you were "That Crazy Guy" who's been spouting insane gibberish through this thread.

 

Nice knowing you.

 

All the argument I need against this bizarre "price is king" hypothesis:

 

[Spyder!]

I am not saying that we should ignore the print run. I am saying that a smaller print run should not hurt TMNT in the discussion for King of the Copper Age.

 

Agreed, but this all devolved once some geniuses starting posting the usual "TMNT sells for more than ASM 300 or NM 98, so it wins hands down" type drivel.

 

Once again, that's not drivel! Rather than live in a made up world where we guess what prices would be with different print runs, or what demand would be at different prices, why not go with what we do know? Actual prices that come from both the actual supply and actual demand? That's the only real data here.

 

Okay, I think I may have opened the Door To Madness and I didn't realize you were "That Crazy Guy" who's been spouting insane gibberish through this thread.

 

Nice knowing you.

 

All the argument I need against this bizarre "price is king" hypothesis:

 

I wasn't trying to be argumentative, I just wanted to point out that looking only at demand, which is what you have been doing, is an incomplete look at what makes a book valuable. There are lots of collectors who appreciate that a book is rare. I really don't understand this desire to live in a world where supply somehow doesn't matter.

 

If you are going to go around calling people crazy because they are voicing logical arguments contrary to your own then I am done discussing this point with you.

[Spyder!]

Also, your argument against the price is king hypothesis is unconvincing.

Golden Age - Action 1

Silver Age - Amazing Fantasy 15

Bronze Age - Hulk 181

 

Seems to hold up pretty well. The market usually gets these things right.

[joe_collector]

Also, your argument against the price is king hypothesis is unconvincing.

Golden Age - Action 1

Silver Age - Amazing Fantasy 15

Bronze Age - Hulk 181

 

Seems to hold up pretty well. The market usually gets these things right.

 

Really? I honestly cannot believe I am replying to a post like this, which is so obviously uninformed and illogical that it's got to be a troll attempt, but...

 

Golden Age - Action 1 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE MILLIONS)

Silver Age - Amazing Fantasy 15 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS)

Bronze Age - Hulk 181 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS)

TMNT 1 (OBSCURE B&W INDIE WITH A MEASLY 3K PRINT RUN)

 

Do you really need me to buy you another clue to see which one doesn't belong?

[Spyder!]

Also, your argument against the price is king hypothesis is unconvincing.

Golden Age - Action 1

Silver Age - Amazing Fantasy 15

Bronze Age - Hulk 181

 

Seems to hold up pretty well. The market usually gets these things right.

 

Really? I honestly cannot believe I am replying to a post like this, which is so obviously uninformed and illogical that it's got to be a troll attempt, but...

 

Golden Age - Action 1 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE MILLIONS)

Silver Age - Amazing Fantasy 15 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS)

Bronze Age - Hulk 181 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS)

TMNT 1 (OBSCURE B&W INDIE WITH A MEASLY 3K PRINT RUN)

 

Do you really need me to buy you another clue to see which one doesn't belong?

 

Haha, you continue to be unimpressive. Between committing logical fallacies in your arguments and directly attacking me, you have once again missed the point. Of course there are differences between all of these books, so somehow TMNT can't be king of the copper age because it had a small print run? That's absurd.

The print run on the older books like action 1 are irrelevant, it's all about the supply NOW, which is extremely small.

You are focusing on one point only, the fact that TMNT was a small indie comic, as if that somehow disqualifies it from discussion.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Golden Age - Action 1 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE MILLIONS)

 

Action Comics #1 had a print run of 200,000 copies.

 

* Van Lente, Fred; Dunlavey, Ryan (2012). The Comic Book History of Comics. IDW. p. 32.

[Hado]

 

Golden Age - Action 1 (MASS MARKET BOOK PRINTED IN THE MILLIONS)

 

Action Comics #1 had a print run of 200,000 copies.

 

* Van Lente, Fred; Dunlavey, Ryan (2012). The Comic Book History of Comics. IDW. p. 32.

Millions of Two Hundred Thousands!!

 

[joe_collector]

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