Future of the Top 10 SA comics (5 years from now)?

[Sqeggs]

The ship has probably already sailed, but an average of unique bids per grade point divided by number of auctions by grade point would have helped (...per specific franchise/issue). The number of views per specific auction possibly..... those things would aide in formulating a more educated viewpoint. So many folks base the demand of a vintage book on the sales figures of it's most recent print incarnation, which is about as "apples and oranges" as we can get. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

.... while mass appeal and "investment potential" may play a role in the justification of someone's decision to make a high end luxury purchase, I still believe that the typical person buying these things are people who can afford to buy what they want and doing just that...... buying what they WANT. As for me..... I'll take that solid and shiny FF 1, thank you please

 

I have no idea what the part in bold means but I'm with you on FF 1. It's publication was one of the key turning points in the history of comics. Who knows what the future will bring for the hobby? But as the smoke clears and the short-run effects of good, bad, and indifferent movies and TV shows dissipate, I think the historical significance of FF 1 will eventually count for quite a lot with collectors.

[nearmint]

Five years from now!

 

1-AF 15

2-X-Men 1

3-TOS 39

4-BB 28

5-HULK 1

6- DAREDEVIL 1

7-Strange Tales 110

8-JIM 83

9-SC 4

10-FF 1(barely hanging on to the top 10. How the mighty have fallen!).

 

As reasonable a list as any, although count me as being in the camp that's skeptical of the staying power of ST 110.

I think Doctor Strange is going to be a huge movie at box office, certainly bigger than Ant-Man or the latest Fantastic Four

Benedict Cumberbatch the guy playing Doctor Strange is very popular with millennials.

 

Maybe. I bow to no one in my admiration for Cumberbatch, but he couldn't keep The Fifth Estate from being one of the bigger bombs in recent Hollywood history. I would say the film could go either way, but however it does, I wouldn't bet on ST 110 over FF 1 in the long run.

 

 

Well the subject matter kept most people away, and was not produced to do hundreds of millions at the box office like Dr Strange, a potential Marvel blockbuster, is being crafted to do.. Very different film projects with very different expectations.

 

Oh, certainly The Fifth State was never going to do huge numbers. But it did receive a wide release and did essentially no business. So it very much underperformed the studio's expectations.

 

My point is that I don't think Cumberbatch has enough of a fan base to drive a Dr. Strange movie beyond what it would otherwise do.

 

I just think Americans don't give a damn about Julian Assange. That film was doomed from the start.

[sfcityduck]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

What you define is "off the rails" is a logic based approach to market dynamics and application of "supply and demand." Comic collectors, pop-culture collectors, flippers, dealers, speculators, or whatever - it is all just demand.

 

Those so called 6-figure books of extinct heroes will be worth a fraction of what they are worth today when their fan-base dies.

 

Simply put, Fantastic Four is not building a new fan base which will erode demand over time until it falls of a cliff when the Baby-Boomers move into fixed income/dead mode.

 

Supply and demand amongst who? For six figure books, it is a tiny supply to feed the demand of high end COMIC COLLECTORS. The guys who I do know of paying big prices are true comic collectors. Some of the them are the same guys paying big bucks for GA comics with characters that lost their fan base a long long long time ago. Moreover, when it comes to SA Marvel and DC characters, none of those characters are "extinct." FF, Flash, etc. are still vibrant characters to any comic collector willing to pay six figures for a comic. Most importantly, I'm unaware of any non-comic collectors who are willing to pay six figures for a comic book because they liked a movie. Can you name any such names?

 

Your position does not seem logical to me because it is at odds with the facts and evidence regarding who it is that demand high end comics. Name one record setting comic price paid by someone who wasn't a comic collector -- just one.

[BarryAllen]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

What you define is "off the rails" is a logic based approach to market dynamics and application of "supply and demand." Comic collectors, pop-culture collectors, flippers, dealers, speculators, or whatever - it is all just demand.

 

Those so called 6-figure books of extinct heroes will be worth a fraction of what they are worth today when their fan-base dies.

 

Simply put, Fantastic Four is not building a new fan base which will erode demand over time until it falls of a cliff when the Baby-Boomers move into fixed income/dead mode.

 

Supply and demand amongst who? For six figure books, it is a tiny supply to feed the demand of high end COMIC COLLECTORS. The guys who I do know of paying big prices are true comic collectors. Some of the them are the same guys paying big bucks for GA comics with characters that lost their fan base a long long long time ago. Moreover, when it comes to SA Marvel and DC characters, none of those characters are "extinct." FF, Flash, etc. are still vibrant characters to any comic collector willing to pay six figures for a comic. Most importantly, I'm unaware of any non-comic collectors who are willing to pay six figures for a comic book because they liked a movie. Can you name any such names?

 

Your position does not seem logical to me because it is at odds with the facts and evidence regarding who it is that demand high end comics. Name one record setting comic price paid by someone who wasn't a comic collector -- just one.

 

You are missing the point entirely, without a new comic base building each and every year, there won't be any millionaires in 15-30 years who care about these comics. You need children who love characters to grow into adults who are nostalgic about the characters enough to maintain their popularity and drive demand (this can be people who are fans making purchases, people buying the books because they are popular and feel the value will increase over time because of the popularity or any other number of reasons - but they all require enough popularity to drive enough demand to outpace supply at a rate to maintain and/or increase marketplace prices). You actually need a very large amount of popularity in a character to drive demand to very high levels and even more popularity over time to sustain them. It doesn't matter that there are only 150 copies of Action 1 (I made that number up), there needs to be millions of people who love Superman for a single copy to be worth what it is today. Without a steady influx of demand over time the value of books like Fantastic Four are in jeopardy. :shrug:

 

Side note: my bad, I used "extinct" when you used "unrecognizable heroes." I was using the terms interchangeably to refer to characters that are no longer a part of popular culture. These books that feature these characters current valuation will not hold.

 

FYI - labeling people as "true comic collectors" (regardless of how much money they have or what they bought) isn't an argument found in reason. There are only two observable facts: 1) they had the means to purchase the comic and 2) the opportunity. Whether or not they care about the main character, bought the comic as an "investment," or just bought them because the can (or virtually any other random reason) - will always remain to be seen. This really doesn't drive any relevance one way or the other in the conversation because they are just a form of demand. Supply and Demand drives pricing.

[sfcityduck]

 

You are missing the point entirely, without a new comic base building each and every year, there won't be any millionaires in 15-30 years who care about these comics. You need children who love characters to grow into adults who are nostalgic about the characters enough to maintain their popularity and drive demand.

 

This is where I think you get it wrong. Very few GA collectors are feeling any "nostalgia" for Centaur, Fox, or even most of the "unrecognizable" superhero comics put out by DC, Timely, Quality, and Fawcett. Most never had the chance to buy those characters off of the newsstand. Instead, they are buying books because they became comic collectors, and as they delved deeper into the hobby they learned of hitherto unknown publishers, titles, characters, and artists that were "cool." We live in a world where a hardcore comic collector will be spending over $50,000, perhaps even six figures, for Issue 3 of a series no one cares about, that features no superheros, just because the zeitgeist of the community of GA collectors has deemed the cover "really cool."

 

That's what's driving prices for high value comics: The fanaticism of comic collectors.

 

If you want to know what's in demand, you're far better off listening to the buyers of these books then you are checking the weekly returns for movies.

 

My guess is that books like FF1 and SC4 will never be left in the dust by comic collectors. They will always be top 10 books.

[BarryAllen]

 

You are missing the point entirely, without a new comic base building each and every year, there won't be any millionaires in 15-30 years who care about these comics. You need children who love characters to grow into adults who are nostalgic about the characters enough to maintain their popularity and drive demand.

 

This is where I think you get it wrong. Very few GA collectors are feeling any "nostalgia" for Centaur, Fox, or even most of the "unrecognizable" superhero comics put out by DC, Timely, Quality, and Fawcett. Most never had the chance to buy those characters off of the newsstand. Instead, they are buying books because they became comic collectors, and as they delved deeper into the hobby they learned of hitherto unknown publishers, titles, characters, and artists that were "cool." We live in a world where a hardcore comic collector will be spending over $50,000, perhaps even six figures, for Issue 3 of a series no one cares about, that features no superheros, just because the zeitgeist of the community of GA collectors has deemed the cover "really cool."

 

That's what's driving prices for high value comics: The fanaticism of comic collectors.

 

If you want to know what's in demand, you're far better off listening to the buyers of these books then you are checking the weekly returns for movies.

 

My guess is that books like FF1 and SC4 will never be left in the dust by comic collectors. They will always be top 10 books.

 

I seriously think we are having two different conversations here...

 

Demand Definition: the desire of purchasers, consumers, clients, employers, etc., for a particular commodity, service, or other item.

 

You know: Supply and Demand, the economic principles that guide all market pricing.

 

My argument is about why Fantastic Four won't hold value based current pricing trends, popular culture trends (in relation to supply and demand now and over time) and a working knowledge of collectibles. My assertion is that tomorrow's rich people (comic enthusiasts or not, may not even know who the Fantastic Four are, let alone want to collect them). Hell, realistically I could extend this to comics in general and that it is not a guarantee that people will always collect them (regardless of how much they are worth)... The vast majority of collectible hobbies have come and gone, comics aren't special.

 

You seem to be arguing the rich people who like comics will always pay a lot of money for them. Which is kind of silly, unfounded and unrealistic. :shrug:

 

 

[jimjum12]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

What you define is "off the rails" is a logic based approach to market dynamics and application of "supply and demand." Comic collectors, pop-culture collectors, flippers, dealers, speculators, or whatever - it is all just demand.

 

Those so called 6-figure books of extinct heroes will be worth a fraction of what they are worth today when their fan-base dies.

 

Simply put, Fantastic Four is not building a new fan base which will erode demand over time until it falls of a cliff when the Baby-Boomers move into fixed income/dead mode.

 

Supply and demand amongst who? For six figure books, it is a tiny supply to feed the demand of high end COMIC COLLECTORS. The guys who I do know of paying big prices are true comic collectors. Some of the them are the same guys paying big bucks for GA comics with characters that lost their fan base a long long long time ago. Moreover, when it comes to SA Marvel and DC characters, none of those characters are "extinct." FF, Flash, etc. are still vibrant characters to any comic collector willing to pay six figures for a comic. Most importantly, I'm unaware of any non-comic collectors who are willing to pay six figures for a comic book because they liked a movie. Can you name any such names?

 

Your position does not seem logical to me because it is at odds with the facts and evidence regarding who it is that demand high end comics. Name one record setting comic price paid by someone who wasn't a comic collector -- just one.

 

You are missing the point entirely, without a new comic base building each and every year, there won't be any millionaires in 15-30 years who care about these comics. You need children who love characters to grow into adults who are nostalgic about the characters enough to maintain their popularity and drive demand (this can be people who are fans making purchases, people buying the books because they are popular and feel the value will increase over time because of the popularity or any other number of reasons - but they all require enough popularity to drive enough demand to outpace supply at a rate to maintain and/or increase marketplace prices). You actually need a very large amount of popularity in a character to drive demand to very high levels and even more popularity over time to sustain them. It doesn't matter that there are only 150 copies of Action 1 (I made that number up), there needs to be millions of people who love Superman for a single copy to be worth what it is today. Without a steady influx of demand over time the value of books like Fantastic Four are in jeopardy. :shrug:

 

Side note: my bad, I used "extinct" when you used "unrecognizable heroes." I was using the terms interchangeably to refer to characters that are no longer a part of popular culture. These books that feature these characters current valuation will not hold.

 

FYI - labeling people as "true comic collectors" (regardless of how much money they have or what they bought) isn't an argument found in reason. There are only two observable facts: 1) they had the means to purchase the comic and 2) the opportunity. Whether or not they care about the main character, bought the comic as an "investment," or just bought them because the can (or virtually any other random reason) - will always remain to be seen. This really doesn't drive any relevance one way or the other in the conversation because they are just a form of demand. Supply and Demand drives pricing.

 

..... Just remember, it's easy to speculate through the filter of our own experience..... but........ this will only provide part of the equation. I, for example, spend WAY too much money on Atlas PCH..... books that I never bought or had even barely heard of as a kid growing up. Other factors drive collectors besides nostalgia and character identification. The Atlas books, for example, don't even have recurring characters for the most part. When I was a teen and becoming a "serious" collector, there were many, many of what were called artist collectors..... those who went after ANYTHING done by a favorite artist. For me it was Kirby and Adams..... and the pursuit and admiration for Kirby was ignited by his work on the FF.... I was lucky enough to be buying them off the stands with the context of the times. I'll ALWAYS love the FF..... and don't care if anyone approves or not.... that's not why I collect..... it's because I like the cool-arse way they look. Honestly, I was driven to Atlas due to a love for the work of Bill Everett..... which for me was an acquired taste when I got older. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

What you define is "off the rails" is a logic based approach to market dynamics and application of "supply and demand." Comic collectors, pop-culture collectors, flippers, dealers, speculators, or whatever - it is all just demand.

 

Those so called 6-figure books of extinct heroes will be worth a fraction of what they are worth today when their fan-base dies.

 

Simply put, Fantastic Four is not building a new fan base which will erode demand over time until it falls of a cliff when the Baby-Boomers move into fixed income/dead mode.

 

Supply and demand amongst who? For six figure books, it is a tiny supply to feed the demand of high end COMIC COLLECTORS. The guys who I do know of paying big prices are true comic collectors. Some of the them are the same guys paying big bucks for GA comics with characters that lost their fan base a long long long time ago. Moreover, when it comes to SA Marvel and DC characters, none of those characters are "extinct." FF, Flash, etc. are still vibrant characters to any comic collector willing to pay six figures for a comic. Most importantly, I'm unaware of any non-comic collectors who are willing to pay six figures for a comic book because they liked a movie. Can you name any such names?

 

Your position does not seem logical to me because it is at odds with the facts and evidence regarding who it is that demand high end comics. Name one record setting comic price paid by someone who wasn't a comic collector -- just one.

 

You are missing the point entirely, without a new comic base building each and every year, there won't be any millionaires in 15-30 years who care about these comics. You need children who love characters to grow into adults who are nostalgic about the characters enough to maintain their popularity and drive demand (this can be people who are fans making purchases, people buying the books because they are popular and feel the value will increase over time because of the popularity or any other number of reasons - but they all require enough popularity to drive enough demand to outpace supply at a rate to maintain and/or increase marketplace prices). You actually need a very large amount of popularity in a character to drive demand to very high levels and even more popularity over time to sustain them. It doesn't matter that there are only 150 copies of Action 1 (I made that number up), there needs to be millions of people who love Superman for a single copy to be worth what it is today. Without a steady influx of demand over time the value of books like Fantastic Four are in jeopardy. :shrug:

 

Side note: my bad, I used "extinct" when you used "unrecognizable heroes." I was using the terms interchangeably to refer to characters that are no longer a part of popular culture. These books that feature these characters current valuation will not hold.

 

FYI - labeling people as "true comic collectors" (regardless of how much money they have or what they bought) isn't an argument found in reason. There are only two observable facts: 1) they had the means to purchase the comic and 2) the opportunity. Whether or not they care about the main character, bought the comic as an "investment," or just bought them because the can (or virtually any other random reason) - will always remain to be seen. This really doesn't drive any relevance one way or the other in the conversation because they are just a form of demand. Supply and Demand drives pricing.

 

..... Just remember, it's easy to speculate through the filter of our own experience..... but........ this will only provide part of the equation. I, for example, spend WAY too much money on Atlas PCH..... books that I never bought or had even barely heard of as a kid growing up. Other factors drive collectors besides nostalgia and character identification. The Atlas books, for example, don't even have recurring characters for the most part. When I was a teen and becoming a "serious" collector, there were many, many of what were called artist collectors..... those who went after ANYTHING done by a favorite artist. For me it was Kirby and Adams..... and the pursuit and admiration for Kirby was ignited by his work on the FF.... I was lucky enough to be buying them off the stands with the context of the times. I'll ALWAYS love the FF..... and don't care if anyone approves or not.... that's not why I collect..... it's because I like the cool-arse way they look. Honestly, I was driven to Atlas due to a love for the work of Bill Everett..... which for me was an acquired taste when I got older. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Sure, but you are still referring to popularity (with your own self identified reasoning, which is fine) and that drives demand. However you slice it, demand and supply control pricing. We can rationalize that every single person who buys a comic does so for a different reason, but it all adds up to demand. Demand (relative to supply) drives market pricing up or down. For a book to hold or grow in value, demand (and by extension popularity for any reason) must be maintained or grow.

 

 

[jimjum12]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

What you define is "off the rails" is a logic based approach to market dynamics and application of "supply and demand." Comic collectors, pop-culture collectors, flippers, dealers, speculators, or whatever - it is all just demand.

 

Those so called 6-figure books of extinct heroes will be worth a fraction of what they are worth today when their fan-base dies.

 

Simply put, Fantastic Four is not building a new fan base which will erode demand over time until it falls of a cliff when the Baby-Boomers move into fixed income/dead mode.

 

Supply and demand amongst who? For six figure books, it is a tiny supply to feed the demand of high end COMIC COLLECTORS. The guys who I do know of paying big prices are true comic collectors. Some of the them are the same guys paying big bucks for GA comics with characters that lost their fan base a long long long time ago. Moreover, when it comes to SA Marvel and DC characters, none of those characters are "extinct." FF, Flash, etc. are still vibrant characters to any comic collector willing to pay six figures for a comic. Most importantly, I'm unaware of any non-comic collectors who are willing to pay six figures for a comic book because they liked a movie. Can you name any such names?

 

Your position does not seem logical to me because it is at odds with the facts and evidence regarding who it is that demand high end comics. Name one record setting comic price paid by someone who wasn't a comic collector -- just one.

 

You are missing the point entirely, without a new comic base building each and every year, there won't be any millionaires in 15-30 years who care about these comics. You need children who love characters to grow into adults who are nostalgic about the characters enough to maintain their popularity and drive demand (this can be people who are fans making purchases, people buying the books because they are popular and feel the value will increase over time because of the popularity or any other number of reasons - but they all require enough popularity to drive enough demand to outpace supply at a rate to maintain and/or increase marketplace prices). You actually need a very large amount of popularity in a character to drive demand to very high levels and even more popularity over time to sustain them. It doesn't matter that there are only 150 copies of Action 1 (I made that number up), there needs to be millions of people who love Superman for a single copy to be worth what it is today. Without a steady influx of demand over time the value of books like Fantastic Four are in jeopardy. :shrug:

 

Side note: my bad, I used "extinct" when you used "unrecognizable heroes." I was using the terms interchangeably to refer to characters that are no longer a part of popular culture. These books that feature these characters current valuation will not hold.

 

FYI - labeling people as "true comic collectors" (regardless of how much money they have or what they bought) isn't an argument found in reason. There are only two observable facts: 1) they had the means to purchase the comic and 2) the opportunity. Whether or not they care about the main character, bought the comic as an "investment," or just bought them because the can (or virtually any other random reason) - will always remain to be seen. This really doesn't drive any relevance one way or the other in the conversation because they are just a form of demand. Supply and Demand drives pricing.

 

..... Just remember, it's easy to speculate through the filter of our own experience..... but........ this will only provide part of the equation. I, for example, spend WAY too much money on Atlas PCH..... books that I never bought or had even barely heard of as a kid growing up. Other factors drive collectors besides nostalgia and character identification. The Atlas books, for example, don't even have recurring characters for the most part. When I was a teen and becoming a "serious" collector, there were many, many of what were called artist collectors..... those who went after ANYTHING done by a favorite artist. For me it was Kirby and Adams..... and the pursuit and admiration for Kirby was ignited by his work on the FF.... I was lucky enough to be buying them off the stands with the context of the times. I'll ALWAYS love the FF..... and don't care if anyone approves or not.... that's not why I collect..... it's because I like the cool-arse way they look. Honestly, I was driven to Atlas due to a love for the work of Bill Everett..... which for me was an acquired taste when I got older. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Sure, but you are still referring to popularity (with your own self identified reasoning, which is fine) and that driving demand. However you slice it, demand and supply drive pricing. We can rationalize that every single person who buys a comic does so for a different reason, but it all adds up to demand. The greater demand, relative to supply, drives higher market pricing. For a book to hold or grow in value, demand (and by extension popularity for any reason) must be maintained or grow.

 

 

........ if Marvel and Sony keep acting like two gals who wore the same dress to the Prom, then I'm afraid you may be right about the eventual demise of the FF..... just not in 5 years. Reports of their demise may be premature GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

[BarryAllen]

 

Fantastic Four 1 is also a book with very little steam other than select mid/low grades. Continued box office mediocrity (during an unprecedented run of other heroes over-saturating the market) and zero merchandising means that there is virtually no youth following. People who own the book love it for what it is, but are going to find a market unwilling to pay high prices for unrecognizable heroes (this future isn't so far off).

 

Here's where I think a lot of SA collector's analysis of the market goes off the rails. The folks paying six figures for comics are, first and foremost, comic book collectors. And comic book collectors have shown no hesitancy to pay huge dollars for comics with "unrecognizable heroes" from a pop culture perspective. That's what GA collecting is all about. There are numerous six figure books which feature extinct superheros and we may soon see a six figure non-superhero non-Archie book. The market for the most high value comics appears to be based on desirability from a comic collector perspective, not a pop culture perspective.

 

 

 

 

 

What you define is "off the rails" is a logic based approach to market dynamics and application of "supply and demand." Comic collectors, pop-culture collectors, flippers, dealers, speculators, or whatever - it is all just demand.

 

Those so called 6-figure books of extinct heroes will be worth a fraction of what they are worth today when their fan-base dies.

 

Simply put, Fantastic Four is not building a new fan base which will erode demand over time until it falls of a cliff when the Baby-Boomers move into fixed income/dead mode.

 

Supply and demand amongst who? For six figure books, it is a tiny supply to feed the demand of high end COMIC COLLECTORS. The guys who I do know of paying big prices are true comic collectors. Some of the them are the same guys paying big bucks for GA comics with characters that lost their fan base a long long long time ago. Moreover, when it comes to SA Marvel and DC characters, none of those characters are "extinct." FF, Flash, etc. are still vibrant characters to any comic collector willing to pay six figures for a comic. Most importantly, I'm unaware of any non-comic collectors who are willing to pay six figures for a comic book because they liked a movie. Can you name any such names?

 

Your position does not seem logical to me because it is at odds with the facts and evidence regarding who it is that demand high end comics. Name one record setting comic price paid by someone who wasn't a comic collector -- just one.

 

You are missing the point entirely, without a new comic base building each and every year, there won't be any millionaires in 15-30 years who care about these comics. You need children who love characters to grow into adults who are nostalgic about the characters enough to maintain their popularity and drive demand (this can be people who are fans making purchases, people buying the books because they are popular and feel the value will increase over time because of the popularity or any other number of reasons - but they all require enough popularity to drive enough demand to outpace supply at a rate to maintain and/or increase marketplace prices). You actually need a very large amount of popularity in a character to drive demand to very high levels and even more popularity over time to sustain them. It doesn't matter that there are only 150 copies of Action 1 (I made that number up), there needs to be millions of people who love Superman for a single copy to be worth what it is today. Without a steady influx of demand over time the value of books like Fantastic Four are in jeopardy. :shrug:

 

Side note: my bad, I used "extinct" when you used "unrecognizable heroes." I was using the terms interchangeably to refer to characters that are no longer a part of popular culture. These books that feature these characters current valuation will not hold.

 

FYI - labeling people as "true comic collectors" (regardless of how much money they have or what they bought) isn't an argument found in reason. There are only two observable facts: 1) they had the means to purchase the comic and 2) the opportunity. Whether or not they care about the main character, bought the comic as an "investment," or just bought them because the can (or virtually any other random reason) - will always remain to be seen. This really doesn't drive any relevance one way or the other in the conversation because they are just a form of demand. Supply and Demand drives pricing.

 

..... Just remember, it's easy to speculate through the filter of our own experience..... but........ this will only provide part of the equation. I, for example, spend WAY too much money on Atlas PCH..... books that I never bought or had even barely heard of as a kid growing up. Other factors drive collectors besides nostalgia and character identification. The Atlas books, for example, don't even have recurring characters for the most part. When I was a teen and becoming a "serious" collector, there were many, many of what were called artist collectors..... those who went after ANYTHING done by a favorite artist. For me it was Kirby and Adams..... and the pursuit and admiration for Kirby was ignited by his work on the FF.... I was lucky enough to be buying them off the stands with the context of the times. I'll ALWAYS love the FF..... and don't care if anyone approves or not.... that's not why I collect..... it's because I like the cool-arse way they look. Honestly, I was driven to Atlas due to a love for the work of Bill Everett..... which for me was an acquired taste when I got older. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Sure, but you are still referring to popularity (with your own self identified reasoning, which is fine) and that driving demand. However you slice it, demand and supply drive pricing. We can rationalize that every single person who buys a comic does so for a different reason, but it all adds up to demand. The greater demand, relative to supply, drives higher market pricing. For a book to hold or grow in value, demand (and by extension popularity for any reason) must be maintained or grow.

 

 

........ if Marvel and Sony keep acting like two gals who wore the same dress to the Prom, then I'm afraid you may be right about the eventual demise of the FF..... just not in 5 years. Reports of their demise may be premature GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

I agree and conceded in an earlier post that 5 years is pretty aggressive. However, unfortunately the book has stalled for more reasons than just pisspoor movies. Maybe you can't count them "out" but they are on the ropes.

[makeminemego]

While I'm not ringing the death chimes for comic movies, I'm at the same time not sure that movie hype (which at times is pretty fleeting to begin with) will play as big of a role in the market in 5 years as it has for the past 5. Nobody knows for sure....only time will tell.

 

The Hulk #1 run-up over the past couple of years was based more on serious collector enthusiasm for the book than movie hype, most likely due to the book's relative scarcity (and the fact that it's a really cool book).

 

Would it surprise me for FF #1 to have sustained interest (or even a spike in interest) among serious collectors due to its historical impact, which is without peer in the SA landscape? Nope.

 

Or it could be a forgotten relic akin to Tec #225 and Adventure #247.

 

Only the Shadow knows.....

 

 

[01TheDude]

This is a cool discussion. I see the ranking of the books from the silver as being much more stable. It seems less likely that some other book might break into the commonly held and often argued "top ten". More likely is whether one of the top 5-10 belongs in its position relative to some thought of as top twenty.

 

The farther we get in time away from the silver age era, the less likely that general opinion should be swayed. Current events would have to be incredible for there to be a major shakeup imo.

 

And when it comes to the FF 1 -- that book isn't going to ever find itself on the outside looking in. Like AF15-- it is one of THE most important books of the age. If one is going to use market pricing as a basis to somehow devalue the book from the significance it played in the 1960s comic book scene-- that seems almost blasphemous.

 

I'm not some huge Fantastic Four collector/fan boy by any means. But that book is a grail and always will be for the Silver Age era. Even if they suddenly found a pallet full of NM- copies of this book (i.e. hugely diluting the market), it doesn't devalue the importance of what the book meant to the industry.

[BarryAllen]

No offend to anyone, but the "Fantastic Four" will always be a top ten book because of its historical significance to the hobby - is a very loose argument at best.

 

Let's throw out the 5 year timeline for discussion purposes, it really isn't a very long timeline.

 

People continue to ignore all that was required over decades for Fantastic Four 1 to hold the spot it has today and assume that future generations will "appreciate it" just as current generations do. This is a patently false assumption that has been proven over and over across almost everything. Kids don't love all the same things as their parents or their grandparents, yes something's transition but those are regularly things that permeate back into popular culture. There have literally been thousands of characters that were popular and dozens of them who held similar significance to the Fantastic Four that are no longer relevant. Human culture has a way of consuming itself and rarely holds onto things for more than a few decades (many time far shorter), unfortunately.

 

Fantastic Four continues to be unimpressive in the public eye and unfortunately without new sources of attracting fandom (action figures, current comic series, various merchandise, etc) there really isn't much for kids to grab onto and hold. You also have to consider that today's movie culture is attempting to popularize dozens of characters into the stratosphere and it is causing over-saturation of superheroes together (this doesn't even include everything be shoved on TV at an aggressive pace). Who knows what the impact of this will be on comic values long term, but the fact that I can buy Deadpool comics, action figures and merchandise right now bodes well for him - while the fact that I cannot do the same for the Fanfastic Four bodes poorly for them.

 

Assuming trends will continue given no reliable reason to believe so is called "hope." Feel free to continue to have it, but it isn't going to save them by itself.

[jimjum12]

No offense to anyone, but the "Fantastic Four" will always be a top ten book because of its historical significance to the hobby - is a very loose argument at best.

 

Let's throw out the 5 year timeline for discussion purposes, it really isn't a very long timeline.

 

People continue to ignore all that was required over decades for Fantastic Four 1 to hold the spot it has today and assume that future generations will "appreciate it" just as current generations do. This is a patently false assumption that has been proven over and over across almost everything. Kids don't love all the same things as their parents or their grandparents, yes something's transition but those are regularly things that permeate back into popular culture. There have literally been thousands of chapters that were popular and dozens of them who held similar significance to the Fantastic Four that are no longer relevant. Human culture has a way of consuming itself and rarely holds onto this for more than a few decades, unfortunately.

 

Fantastic Four continues to be unimpressive in the public eye and unfortunately without new sources of attracting fandom (action figures, current comic series, various merchandise, etc) there really isn't much for kids to grab onto and hold. You also have to consider that today's movie culture is attempting to popularize dozens of characters into the stratosphere and it is causing over-saturation of superheroes together. Who knows what the impact of this will be on comic values long term, but the fact that I can buy Deadpool comics, action figures and merchandise right now bodes well for him - while the fact that I cannot do the same for the Fanfastic Four bodes poorly for them.

 

Assuming trends will continue given no reliable reason to believe so is called "hope." Feel free to continue to have it, but it isn't going to save them by itself.

 

..... one of the main drawbacks for the FF is that this is and has been the Age of the Anti-Hero for quite some time. This doesn't provide much foundation for the FF's dysfunctional family dynamic and makes it's modern day chances at success difficult. The "new" FF that Fox attempted would have been better suited for television, where time to build character development was available. Fox had the right idea with the X-Files..... a kick arse TV show with the occasional "event" movie. That approach would work well with the FF. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

No offense to anyone, but the "Fantastic Four" will always be a top ten book because of its historical significance to the hobby - is a very loose argument at best.

 

Let's throw out the 5 year timeline for discussion purposes, it really isn't a very long timeline.

 

People continue to ignore all that was required over decades for Fantastic Four 1 to hold the spot it has today and assume that future generations will "appreciate it" just as current generations do. This is a patently false assumption that has been proven over and over across almost everything. Kids don't love all the same things as their parents or their grandparents, yes something's transition but those are regularly things that permeate back into popular culture. There have literally been thousands of characters that were popular and dozens of them who held similar significance to the Fantastic Four that are no longer relevant. Human culture has a way of consuming itself and rarely holds onto this for more than a few decades, unfortunately.

 

Fantastic Four continues to be unimpressive in the public eye and unfortunately without new sources of attracting fandom (action figures, current comic series, various merchandise, etc) there really isn't much for kids to grab onto and hold. You also have to consider that today's movie culture is attempting to popularize dozens of characters into the stratosphere and it is causing over-saturation of superheroes together. Who knows what the impact of this will be on comic values long term, but the fact that I can buy Deadpool comics, action figures and merchandise right now bodes well for him - while the fact that I cannot do the same for the Fanfastic Four bodes poorly for them.

 

Assuming trends will continue given no reliable reason to believe so is called "hope." Feel free to continue to have it, but it isn't going to save them by itself.

 

..... one of the main drawbacks for the FF is that this is and has been the Age of the Anti-Hero for quite some time. This doesn't provide much foundation for the FF's dysfunctional family dynamic and makes it's modern day chances at success difficult. The "new" FF that Fox attempted would have been better suited for television, where time to build character development was available. Fox had the right idea with the X-Files..... a kick arse TV show with the occasional "event" movie. That approach would work well with the FF. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Totally agree, character development was lost in the movie and TV shows have the time to get it right (if they don't rush through villains - a la "Heroes" post season 1).

 

Fox really should stick to TV...

[vaillant]

No offend to anyone, but the "Fantastic Four" will always be a top ten book because of its historical significance to the hobby - is a very loose argument at best.

 

Let's throw out the 5 year timeline for discussion purposes, it really isn't a very long timeline.

 

People continue to ignore all that was required over decades for Fantastic Four 1 to hold the spot it has today and assume that future generations will "appreciate it" just as current generations do. This is a patently false assumption that has been proven over and over across almost everything. Kids don't love all the same things as their parents or their grandparents, yes something's transition but those are regularly things that permeate back into popular culture. There have literally been thousands of characters that were popular and dozens of them who held similar significance to the Fantastic Four that are no longer relevant. Human culture has a way of consuming itself and rarely holds onto things for more than a few decades (many time far shorter), unfortunately.

 

Fantastic Four continues to be unimpressive in the public eye and unfortunately without new sources of attracting fandom (action figures, current comic series, various merchandise, etc) there really isn't much for kids to grab onto and hold. You also have to consider that today's movie culture is attempting to popularize dozens of characters into the stratosphere and it is causing over-saturation of superheroes together (this doesn't even include everything be shoved on TV at an aggressive pace). Who knows what the impact of this will be on comic values long term, but the fact that I can buy Deadpool comics, action figures and merchandise right now bodes well for him - while the fact that I cannot do the same for the Fanfastic Four bodes poorly for them.

 

Assuming trends will continue given no reliable reason to believe so is called "hope." Feel free to continue to have it, but it isn't going to save them by itself.

 

When I consider the Marvel age (and Fantastic Four #1 is its cornerstone), I do not think in terms of mere "historical significance", let alone of a simple hobby.

 

I did not post before, but I think the ambiguity here lies in the fact of considering them as "collectibles", as related to the present time. A thing I hardly think about as I always consider comics (and all of the things I collect) for the quality of their content, and also for what they represented and represent.

 

In this vein, it would be great if Marvel managed to care enough about the Fantastic Four to keep them as lively as ever, but they did not, and they do not seem able, or interested to do so, looking at their history and its meaning.

 

So, it is relatively unimportant to me how FF#1 will steadily hold as a "collectible". I will always recognize its qualities for what it has been, and represented, and to me it will always have the value of a precious inkunabula, a certain painting or sculpture, or musical work. The term "super-hero" was not even of interest anymore when the Fantastic Four were launched.

Marvel has made a decision, and what I see (mostly) are not super-heroes, so unless of a drastic change I am happy of what I have had and I have from the Marvel age, and to carry on a legacy you also need criticism, which is fashionably ostracized these days.

[whetteon]

I don't know what position FF1 holds in the top 10 currently but I don't see it falling completely off the list (it may drop down a notch or two from its current position though). It's just too important a book.

 

Trends tend to indicate it's just as popular today as ever. The movie bombing did nothing to distract the buyers of Marvel's first Silver Age Super-hero team.

[Peter G]

I appreciate your input that is the reason I started this topic to have a active debate. I know there is no real or wrong answer all this is speculative. Just fun to talk comics!!

 

 

Well, if its all just speculative and there is no right or wrong than I am voting for Peter Porker the Spectacular Spider Ham # 1 !!!!

 

Of course, if we were gonna talk reality - then Amazing Spiderman # 1 will surely beat Strange Tales 110 and Our Army War Rock whatever 83

[thirdgreenham]

Sorry, why are people predicting the fall of FF1.....

[H0RR0RSH0W]

Looking back to some of the original post I saw X-Men #1 being tossed around alot. With one after another successful movie no way do I see it moving down the list. Kind of surprising that it is currently only at 8.

 

In 5 years I could see spots 3, 4 and 5 moving down the list. FF is very significant but it has nothing to make it stick right now. I feel however in terms of "lifetime collectors" it will always be a key with value, never moving all the way out. Also nothing good going on with Flash, why would it move up?

 

I could see Hulk and AF continue to duke it out for spots 1 and 2.

 

Lastly I can see OAAW # 83 continuing up the list and moving into the top 10 in another 5 years as people get wise to war books.