Do comics ever go down in price?

[tth2]

Thanks Mark, I appreciate the input. I'd posted a similar question on these boards before, on the expectation that there might be a few sports card collectors amongst the comic forumites, but apparently not.

 

Or they just didn't want to answer my question.

[delekkerste]

I drummed this up in my head listening to The Killers' "Hot Fuss" CD on the way home the other day:

 

Mr. Comic Brightside (to the tune of The Killers' "Mr. Brightside")

 

I'm logging onto eBay

And I’ve been doing just fine

Gotta gotta calm down

Because I want to buy ‘em all

It started out with one slab

How did it end up like this

It was only a slab, it was only a slab

 

Now I’m running up debt

And things are getting quite bad

While my savings go up in smoke

Why did I listen to Norrin Radd?

Now I’m going to bed

And my stomach is sick

I wish it were all in my head, but

Here comes Blazing Bob, now

He wants his money right now

Leaving me broke

 

I just can’t look, collecting’s killing me

And taking control

Pedigree, ComicLink and Jason E

They’ve got such nice merchandise

Gotta have it at any price

I guess it’s just my destiny

CGC is calling me

Open up my fanboy eyes

Cause I’m Mr. Comic Brightside

 

(repeat)

 

I never...

I never...

I never (will buy into a parabolic market again!)

[jbud73]

I drummed this up in my head listening to The Killers' "Hot Fuss" CD on the way home the other day:

 

Mr. Comic Brightside (to the tune of The Killers' "Mr. Brightside")

 

I'm logging onto eBay

And I’ve been doing just fine

Gotta gotta calm down

Because I want to buy ‘em all

It started out with one slab

How did it end up like this

It was only a slab, it was only a slab

 

Now I’m running in debt

And things are getting quite bad

While my savings go up in smoke

Why did I listen to Norrin Radd?

Now I’m going to bed

And my stomach is sick

I wish it were all in my head, but

Here comes Blazing Bob, now

He wants his money right now

Leaving me broke

 

I just can’t look, collecting’s killing me

And taking control

Pedigree, ComicLink and Jason E

They’ve got such nice merchandise

Gotta have it at any price

I guess it’s just my destiny

CGC is calling me

Open up my fanboy eyes

Cause I’m Mr. Comic Brightside

 

(repeat)

 

I never...

I never...

I never (will buy into a parabolic market again!)

 

 

That tune was on the radio this morning (and every morning recently) - that is some funny sh-!-t Gene I actually laughed out loud in my office.

[delekkerste]

[BleekerBob]

I drummed this up in my head listening to The Killers' "Hot Fuss" CD on the way home the other day:

 

Mr. Comic Brightside (to the tune of The Killers' "Mr. Brightside")

 

I'm logging onto eBay

And I’ve been doing just fine

Gotta gotta calm down

Because I want to buy ‘em all

It started out with one slab

How did it end up like this

It was only a slab, it was only a slab

 

Now I’m running up debt

And things are getting quite bad

While my savings go up in smoke

Why did I listen to Norrin Radd?

Now I’m going to bed

And my stomach is sick

I wish it were all in my head, but

Here comes Blazing Bob, now

He wants his money right now

Leaving me broke

 

I just can’t look, collecting’s killing me

And taking control

Pedigree, ComicLink and Jason E

They’ve got such nice merchandise

Gotta have it at any price

I guess it’s just my destiny

CGC is calling me

Open up my fanboy eyes

Cause I’m Mr. Comic Brightside

 

(repeat)

 

I never...

I never...

I never (will buy into a parabolic market again!)

 

Nice rendition! The killers are fantastic. That whole album kicks .

[mdooley-migration]

High, all

[Aman619]

welcome to the boards...

[adamstrange]

Mark, good post, and I agree with your sentiments. Since you have some knowledge of the baseball card market, maybe you can provide some thoughts on the following question (you kind of have to read through the preambles to get to the question):

 

It's been conjectured on these boards that each era of comics will eventually stagnate or drop in price as that era's core generation of collectors dies off, because there will be insufficient numbers of younger collectors to fill the void, since the interests of the majority of these younger collectors will lie more with comics from their own eras. So, on the assumption that a majority of the core GA collectors are in their 50s and 60s, it has been hypothesized that as this generation moves on in the next couple of decades, GA prices will stagnate or decline. I would say this hypothesis does not apply to iconic books like Action #1, Tec #27, Cap #1, etc., which will probably always transcend pure nostalgia and emotional attachment.

 

Analogizing the baseball card market to the comic market, then you could say that baseball cards from the 1920s and early 1930s are where comics from the late 1930s and 1940s will be in 10-20 years, which means that the collectors who had an emotional attachment to players from the 1920s and early 1930s would now be in their 70s and 80s (i.e., most have passed on by now).

 

So finally to my question: from your knowledge of the baseball card market, has there been any stagnation or decline in the value of cards of players from these eras as their core audience moved on? I don't mean players like Ruth, Gehrig or Cobb in this question, because like Action #1 et al, their iconic status transcends mere nostalgia. My question really focuses on ordinary players from that era, and even superstar/Hall of Fame players from that era who are no longer household names, such as a Tris Speaker or Mel Ott. Did support for their prices disappear as the next generation of collectors took over, who were more interested in Joe DiMaggio, or Ted Williams, or Mickey Mantle cards? Or if prices did maintain or increased, was it because there were sufficient new collectors interested in those players' cards? Or simply a function of scarcity overriding declining demand?

 

-Tim

 

Tim, written like a good lawyer!

 

It is an interesting question. I am certainly not an expert on baseball cards and their value, but let me give you some observations as they can relate to foretelling trends in the comic community.

 

There are many similarities between the two hobbies, as well as differences. Modern day baseball cards started early in the 20th Century (though there are some examples of 19th Century cards). Modern day comics started in the 1930s. For both hobbies the 1940s and 1950s were more about participating in the hobby then collecting. That started to change in the 1960s and was instilled by the 1970s. The 1980s were very similar in that both hobbies saw an influx of participants, and the commercialism was exploited to the hilt. Major overproduction.

 

Comics saw such titles as GI Joe, the Punisher, Crisis on Infinite Earths go through the roof. Multiple spin-offs were published, sometimes even multiple printings. Demand was high, costs were high. 20 years later, these titles have lost luster and value, particularly because they became so common.

 

The same occurred with baseball cards. The sets from 1981-1983 rose in value very quickly in the mid to late 1980s as popularity increased, and then dropped in the 1990s. The 1984 and 1985 sets have some key rookies like Roger Clemens and Mark McGuire and the prices soared, and still remain high. But interestingly by 1987 and through the mid-1990s the companies overproduced and the sets are mostly dirt cheap, and that includes Barry Bonds' rookie card of 1987.

 

So in many ways the commercial trend of comics and cards have tracked nicely. Now, to the specific question you raise. It is not a black and white issue because of the distinctions between the two hobbies. For one thing, as you noted, many baseball players are not household names and can became complete unknowns after passage of a decade or two. Even many Hall of Famers from the early days fit within this category. I would not say that the reputational disappearance has significantly impacted the value of these early cards, at least not downward. No doubt it impacts the level and rate of upward growth. Although part of those who now enter the baseball card community are, like me, I believe not only interested from an investment standpoint but from a love of the game and a fascination with history. Cards from the early 20th Century are, at their heart now, antiques.

 

The one thing about many GA comics is that the primary characters still exist today. So I don't think it is just about the fact that Action #1 or Detective #27 will not seemingly decrease in value, but that the characters of Superman and Batman are never out of the limelight whether that be through continued publication of comic books or movies. It is also easier to take even a long forgotten comic book character and give them a revival in modern day. If the current community develops an interest, well you can postulate how that will positively impact the earlier issues, even if those existed 60 years ago. Not the same for baseball cards because you cannot obviously bring back the player for a revival. The closest that can occur is what Topps started doing in the late 1990s or so and that was to start issuing some really beautiful archive reproductions of their cards, dating back only to 1952 as I recall.

 

Of course, just as with comics, movies and television can revive an interest even in the old timers. The most valuable baseball card is that of Honus Wagner from, I believe, 1909. It was even the topic of a movie starring Matthew Modine a few years back. Eight Men Out revived an interest in the 1919 White Sox. Field of Dreams is another example. Each of these can bring new blood into the community.

 

So, to bring the rambling to a close, I think the answer to your question is blurry. There is a legitimate premise therein, but as the degree of stagnation may spread through the hobby due to the passing of the original collectors of that day, I would submit that at the same time or not too far in the future there is an infusion of collectors/investors who start focusing on the same items, but perhaps for different reasons.

 

I didn't inherit the sports gene and so never got into the card market. However, I did think it worthwhile to address the question of age of the collectors. Tim, if your point about GA collectors is they must be 50 or 60, then realize that they pretty much missed the GA as kids. A 60 year old was born in 1945 and would remember reading comics from say age 6 on up with the more memorable years being between 8 - 12. Their memories would include ECs and the first SA book, Showcase 4. Those really aren't the same type of books as the GA. Also, I would be ecstatic if all those under 50 left the market as they've been big competition for me. There was a poll on how old GA collectors were in the "Polls" section and there were quite a few under 50 and 40.

 

I didn't grow up in the GA era, but upon getting out of school I identified several dozen GA keys that I wanted to acquire. I've continued to see folks get into the GA over the last 20 years -- it's not the same crowd. This is one of the factors that give me some level of confidence for comics as a marketplace even 20 - 30 years from now.

 

The rise in prices in the last 30 years is due more to rising income than vast numbers of collectors competing. There's a reasonable number of folks who are professionals (lawyers, doctors), software developers/engineers, and hollywood types -- people whose income has gone up considerably in the last 3 decades to enable those folks to indulge in expensive hobbies. Many of the folks on the board have said that they just use family discretionary income. For argument's sake let's assume it's 2% of income. If that person's income goes up 10%, they might feel comfortable putting a total of 5% of their income towards discretionary purposes. Thus a small increase in overall compensation can yield a large percentage increase in discretionary income.

 

That said, people are fickle and there's no reason they can't decide to look to some other area of collecting that's cheaper or less well-defined than comics. My brother bought "big" items in his collecting field for a few hundred bucks. Frankly, it's depressing to swap stories with him as he can pick up a stack of killer material in his field for a fraction of what I pay to collect comics.

 

I think stamps are area that is unlikely to have a major revival as they don't seem to get in many new collectors. I left stamp collecting a long time back but not because I didn't like them, but because the best material was impossibly expensive whereas, at the time, comics weren't.

 

As far as the original question that started the thread, I don't think the person that asked the question should buy any comics, for other than reading purposes, until they fully understand the answer: "Of course, they can go down."

[adamstrange]

Tim, written like a good lawyer!

 

There's no need for insults.

[esquirecomics]

Tim, written like a good lawyer!

 

There's no need for insults.

 

Should I have said "bad lawyer"?

[adamstrange]

Tim, written like a good lawyer!

 

There's no need for insults.

 

Should I have said "bad lawyer"?

 

Wouldn't that be redundant?

[esquirecomics]

Tim, written like a good lawyer!

 

There's no need for insults.

 

Should I have said "bad lawyer"?

 

Wouldn't that be redundant?

 

We lawyers live in a world of redundancy.

[tth2]

We lawyers live in a world of redundancy.

 

If I had a nickel for every time the term "belts and suspenders" has been used in legal conversations, I wouldn't need a day job anymore.

[tth2]

However, I did think it worthwhile to address the question of age of the collectors. Tim, if your point about GA collectors is they must be 50 or 60, then realize that they pretty much missed the GA as kids. A 60 year old was born in 1945 and would remember reading comics from say age 6 on up with the more memorable years being between 8 - 12. Their memories would include ECs and the first SA book, Showcase 4. Those really aren't the same type of books as the GA. Also, I would be ecstatic if all those under 50 left the market as they've been big competition for me.

 

Good points, Adam, but I think those in their 50s and 60s are still old enough to have proximity with GA for that to be their core era. That is, perhaps they weren't old enough to buy Action #1 off the newsstand, but when they became old enough to start seriously collecting they wouldn't have purchased Atomic Age or early SA books because those were their "moderns", and therefore the challenge for them would have been to acquire books from 10-15 years earlier.

 

To analogize to myself (and you based on our conversations), we weren't old enough to buy much SA off the newsstand and got most of our exposure to SA and GA from reprints that we read during the 70s. BAs, which technically were our era, were no challenge because they were our "moderns". Thus, we would be part of the SA core market, in the same way that someone born in 1945 would be part of the GA core market.

 

There was a poll on how old GA collectors were in the "Polls" section and there were quite a few under 50 and 40.

I don't think a poll taken on an internet site provides a very representative sample. Simply being on the internet skews the demographics dramatically towards a younger audience. Also, and no offense is intended to anyone here, but how many GA BSDs participate in these forums? In my estimation maybe only 2.

[shrunkenhead]

Also, and no offense is intended to anyone here, but how many GA BSDs participate in these forums? In my estimation maybe only 2.

 

A bit more than that.

[tth2]

Also, and no offense is intended to anyone here, but how many GA BSDs participate in these forums? In my estimation maybe only 2.

 

A bit more than that.

 

Really? I would say Jon Berk (jbcomicbox), Rarehighgrade and maybe Gary Colabuono (Moondog) because of his ashcans collection. So 2, maybe 3.

[Norrin_Radd]

Now I’m running up debt

And things are getting quite bad

While my savings go up in smoke

Why did I listen to Norrin Radd?

 

You seem to suffer from short-term memory loss, Gene.

 

If you go back a few pages on this thread, you will see my thoughts concerning capital expenditure on comics.

 

"My bottom line on comics expenditure is buy within your means and know what you're buying."

 

I am not an obsessive collector who has to spend thousands of dollars a month to get my fix. My spending is very selective and I have made it a point to sell comics from my collection to pay for any new purchases. Stop trying to paint me as some drooling fanboy who has spent his life saving on expensive HG comics because that is just not the case.

 

Overall I agree with your concerns about collectors buying expensive comics that they can't afford as an "investment".

 

I just disagree with your notion that the hobby will die with the baby boomers. The hobby didn't start with them and I don't believe it will end with them.

[skybolt]

You always have to approach this hobby with a realistic standpoint. Before I started paying thousands of dollars on certain GA and SA books, I rationalized that if I lose about $10K in the long run with my transactions (buying and selling)over the next 10-years, I'd still be satisfied. That's why I've slightly overpaid for certain books because I needed them in my collection at that specific moment. However, if you're in this hobby to break even or to make money, then you have to be careful with your purchases. If you're charging to your credit card, make sure you can pay it off at the end of the month. Don't build up any bank fees since your account is lower than it should be. Don't take chances with non-reputable sellers. Don't get into bidding wars with other Ebayers. Refer to the OS guide and GPA for background information before making purchases. Does this mean you'll miss out on some books you need, probably. However, if you're in this business to at least make a little profit, you have to play it safe. Don't get me wrong, most of the successful people in this world are risk takers, but they usually approach it with the chance of losing money.

 

In closing, I'd just like to say that just because someone like myself, or other collectors are willing to shell out $300 on a certain book, it doesn't mean that it's a good investment. This is especially true for GA collectors, since the book may never show up again.

[delekkerste]

Chill out, man, I just needed to find something to rhyme with "bad" and your handle was it.

 

And I have never, ever said that the hobby would die out with the Baby Boomers, just that simple demographic analysis shows that there is going to be a lot of supply hitting the market starting in 5-10 years and you have to wonder where the collectors and the money are going to come from to keep prices stable at today's inflated levels, let alone rising (in real terms). Is the entrance of new collectors large enough to even replenish, let alone grow, the base of collectors who are leaving the hobby? Especially in areas like GA? Just because 30 collectors on a message board like to pick up a GA book or two now and then at a good price does not mean that those 4 and 5-figure Mile High books are going to keep soaring in value.

 

I question where the money, the big money, is going to come from. People just aren't going to make the kind of income and wealth gains like they have in the past with all the markets starting at such inflated levels and globalization and demographics putting the squeeze on people thinking that they're entering their prime earning/investing years. And to keep prices rising into the 4, 5 and 6 figures for a lot of these books (which will get sold at some point), the market is going to need to see some big cash flowing into the market. I think the more likely outcome is that there's not going to be enough cash to absorb the supply, especially if/when interest rates rise high enough in the coming years to burst the credit/consumption/asset bubble (all 1 bubble, really).

[Excelsior!-migration]

I'm new to collecting and I was wondering if prices ever go down or is it just up? Have prices ever gone down in the guide?

 

The majority of all new comics bought off the stand loose about 75% + of their value once purchased. There are exceptions to the rule like Ultimate Spider-man, Superman/Batman, etc...

 

Most Copper and old Modern Age comics from 1980 - 2000 are not even worth the current $2.25 cover price given to most new comics. Once again there are exceptions like ASM McFarlane run, X-men #266 etc...

 

Most Bronze Age mainstream super-hero comics in HG (9.4 or better) will go for near guide prices or even better. Key HG Bronze super-hero (especially if CGC'd) can go for stupid money. Like MS #5 (1st Ghost Rider).

 

Almost any super-hero comics from the Silver and Gold Age in VF 8.0 or better will sell well. HG keys will sell for 10-20+ guide.