Is the market cooling?

[fastballspecial]

I sure hope so Id like some to leave our hobby soon.

 

[jimjum12]

.... that's exactly what will happen..... the wheat will be sifted from the chaff and the opportunists will seek the next pot of gold at the end of the rainbow..... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[paperheart]

For comics that aren't considered keys or the hot flavor of the month, the market has been cooling for several years now.

 

certainly the case w/ HG silver DC. random books in a run are easily down 25-40% in the past 5 years. offset by lunacy like Aquaman #29 and #35 which are up 10x.

[NP_Gresham]

Are you investing or collecting?

If it is the later it does not matter.

 

It absolutely matters regardless of whether you're investing or collecting. As a collector, I don't want to pay high for an asset that's on it's way down. This is why, as a collector, I would prefer to be buying in a non-speculative era, where the market is less susceptible to "whipsawing," and thus you don't have to worry too much about the bottom coming out. But, we are in a speculation-movie era. I've posted on another thread that, imo, the market is in a conditionally temporary cooling off period that started end of the Summer, but it could turn into a bull again if BvS or Civil War or SS are runaway successes. Conversely, if these films put up relatively lousy numbers, the temporary cooling off could turn into a bear. It's the superhero movies -- and, to a lesser degree, TV shows -- that are the kerosene to the growth in prices. No surprises in the following: there is relative safety in the truly tough/tougher books (GA/early SA) and greater volatility in the books that are as common as corn. I shudder when I see on the census all those 9.8s and 9.6s of ASM300, NM98, NTT2, etc.

If you are investing consider it dollar/cost averaging.

If you are collecting, do you like a book more or less based on the fluctuations in the market?

[prez]

.... that's exactly what will happen..... the wheat will be sifted from the chaff and the opportunists will seek the next pot of gold at the end of the rainbow..... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

Life will go on for those established dealers and responsible collectors whether the market cools down or not. They will just adapt and maintain their symbiotic relationship.

 

The run-of-the-mill flippers we see on Facebook and Instagram should keep their day job.

 

 

[Arkham]

Multiple reasons.

 

1) strong US dollar removes many potential buyers who don't live in the US

2) there is always a slow down about a month before Christmas.

3) strong surge of books on the market after people grading popular movie books and putting them on the market

etc, etc, etc.

 

The market has been 'cooling' and 'getting hot' for 50 years now.

 

#NailedIt.

 

Right now $600 USD is around $830 AUD (not including PayPal conversion rates). Then add shipping - $50 USD on average - around $70 AUD.

 

All of a sudden you're looking at a pretty much 1 grand via PayPal in dinky-di real money for a mid-range key.

 

Christmas is a big player too. I've won some books at ridiculous prices when the auction was finishing on Christmas Day.

 

 

Do you mean dollarydoos ?

 

 

Yes!! Those are the ones!!

[Ken Aldred]

.... that's exactly what will happen..... the wheat will be sifted from the chaff and the opportunists will seek the next pot of gold at the end of the rainbow..... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

Life will go on for those established dealers and responsible collectors whether the market cools down or not. They will just adapt and maintain their symbiotic relationship.

 

The run-of-the-mill flippers we see on Facebook and Instagram should keep their day job.

 

 

Yup. If the current speculator market implodes, there will be the expectation that bailout will be provided by those of us who actually care about comics, once again, as before.

[BarryAllen]

via GIPHY

[Johnny U]

.... that's exactly what will happen..... the wheat will be sifted from the chaff and the opportunists will seek the next pot of gold at the end of the rainbow..... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

I can't wait for that day.

[crassus]

i can't see the market continuing to rise like it has over the past few years.... when looking at past sales on Heritage, I was blown away by what super keys could be bought for about 8-10 years ago...

 

why couldn't I have had money then?

 

Nothing compared to the OA market. I started collecting OA about 6 or 7 years ago, the stuff has gotten so expensive, I am considering giving it up and going back to just collecting comics.

 

Yes, this has made me appreciate comics more, as being a safer and more predictable investment, and finally a more satisfying hobby. I think many people, myself included, got caught up in the idea that OA was "one of a kind" and therefore intrinsically more precious and enduring in value.

 

What I've learned is that there is much more value in mass production. It is very hard to fix dependable value to what is "one of a kind". The market may be up or down on any given comic key book, but evaluating risk will be much easier as there will be a greater volume of sales data, and market tracking, to fall back on for appraisal.

 

IMO comics will always sustain more interest as a collectible, since grade will allow fans on a budget to still hope to own most books, whereas increasingly comic art per page is averaging high grade key book prices, and that is not sustainable for the vast majority of collectors.

[Mijael.Levy]

Oil prices went down again two days ago , so 1 US dollar now costs $17.65 pesos ..Buying comics is getting expensive everyday

[Agent 007]

I've been waiting for a correction in books for a long time, hasn't arrived yet. Most the books I want are out of price range.

[NP_Gresham]

The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.

 

As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.

 

"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-idINKBN0TL18F20151202

 

Looks like a bad time to pay a premium on anything collectable.

Sit on your cash and wait.

 

[kav]

I read in another thread someone sold his books cause he needed money. Could be a run on the longboxes causes a crash!!!!

[ComicConnoisseur]

I've been waiting for a correction in books for a long time, hasn't arrived yet. Most the books I want are out of price range.

The Marvel keys will continue to go up. The cat's out of the bag now. Some of the best investments in all the collectibles fields. A better investment than silver and gold.

Examples.

I expect ASM #129 and NM #98 to be even a more higher price than they are now.

Marvel keys equal gold standard.

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.

 

As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.

 

"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."

http://in.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-idINKBN0TL18F20151202

 

Looks like a bad time to pay a premium on anything collectable.

Sit on your cash and wait.

Your cash could get worthless sitting in a bank. A thousand in 2008 is worth less now. With the interest rates banks have given out you will find buying a few key comics would have been a better bet. I am not saying invest all your money into comics ,but it's good to diversify.

[ygogolak]

Lots of people say this month sales go down because of Con Season starting or holidays sales go down, etc.. The only way I see to determine what the market is doing for me personally is to look at my sales. And of course this is dependent on a number of factors including things like movie releases, key book increases and decreases, what stock you have available (replenishment) etc... Personally, I think trying to compare the price of oil fluctuation is ridiculous because I don't think the two coincide at all in terms of buyers.

 

My monthly sales in ranking of highest profit to lowest. This is net, not gross and these are only online sales. But, the other 2 months were the last two, so

 

1. Jan.

2. Oct.

3. Feb.

4. Apr.

5. Mar.

6. Nov.

7. Jun.

8. May

9.Jul.

10. Sept.

11. Aug.

12. Dec. (2 weeks left, could easily bump up to as high as #7 )

 

So, for me, 4 of the top 6 months were the first four months of the year.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Lots of people say this month sales go down because of Con Season starting or holidays sales go down, etc.. The only way I see to determine what the market is doing for me personally is to look at my sales. And of course this is dependent on a number of factors including things like movie releases, key book increases and decreases, what stock you have available (replenishment) etc... Personally, I think trying to compare the price of oil fluctuation is ridiculous because I don't think the two coincide at all in terms of buyers.

 

My monthly sales in ranking of highest profit to lowest. This is net, not gross and these are only online sales.

 

1. Jan.

2. Oct.

3. Feb.

4. Apr.

5. Mar.

6. Nov.

7. Jun.

8. May

9.Jul.

10. Sept.

11. Aug.

12. Dec. (2 weeks left, could easily bump up to as high as #7 )

 

So, for me, 4 of the top 6 months were the first four months of the year.

Interesting.

I will say there hasn't been a big superhero movie since Avengers 2. Should be interesting to take a look at sales when Batman vs. Superman and Captain America: Civil War come out.

 

[zosocane]

Should be interesting to take a look at sales when Batman vs. Superman and Captain America: Civil War come out.

 

This.

[ygogolak]

Interesting.

I will say there hasn't been a big superhero movie since Avengers 2. Should be interesting to take a look at sales when Batman vs. Superman and Captain America: Civil War come out.

 

There hasn't been one released, but there have been plenty of TV and movie character castings and new artwork released. I've gone past the days of holding books for years to wait for a movie to be released only to realize the same profit could have been realized when initial announcements were made.

Still holding those Doomsday books or did you sell them 1-2 weeks ago?