How can you estimate modern variant print runs?

[GLCBrad]

Discuss in new thread. Rabble rabble rabble

[bababooey]

[LarrysComics]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

 

[UltraMaximus]

RAM does. and so does Chuck. They told me so.

[Chaseman210]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

 

I'll admit I have no clue about any of this, but wasn't there something a couple of years back with Nowhere Men? A variant was released, which only had a certain number supposedly printed. But then it came out that they printed extra to hand out to family and friends. So can anybody really be sure?

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

You have to figure that every incentive variant has overages printed for damages, comps, etc. (increasing the number), but you also have to figure that not every store orders enough the qualify for the rarer variants (decreasing the number).

 

This method may not indicate the print run, but it will give a better clue on the number of copies that are available, barring information on those books being available via some other avenue (Five Below bags, after-the-fact variant dump sales, etc.)

[Jaydogrules]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

You have to figure that every incentive variant has overages printed for damages, comps, etc. (increasing the number), but you also have to figure that not every store orders enough the qualify for the rarer variants (decreasing the number).

 

This method may not indicate the print run, but it will give a better clue on the number of copies that are available, barring information on those books being available via some other avenue (Five Below bags, after-the-fact variant dump sales, etc.)

 

 

-J.

[Bird]

The ratio should be considered the MINIMUM number of possible copies, not the MAXIMUM.

[revat]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

 

I'll admit I have no clue about any of this, but wasn't there something a couple of years back with Nowhere Men? A variant was released, which only had a certain number supposedly printed. But then it came out that they printed extra to hand out to family and friends. So can anybody really be sure?

 

No one can be sure

 

That was the ultimate point being alleged in the other thread. Too many variables, too much possibility for exceptions.

 

Well normally we print X% over the order number Y, then round up from there to the nearest full case or pallet depending on how big the order is. Except when it's a #1, or we have a movie coming out or the artist wants extras, or we're having corporate parties, or there's a new character being introduced, or Stan Lee tells us to, or Mike Trout hits two homers in a game or Rma makes a post with 1000+ words, or a mistake is made, or we thought there would be an extra high amount of defective copies, or we anticipated a lot of late orders based on hype, or any combination of the above, or a million other reasons, although we generally don't tell the public. But it should still be pretty simple to estimate a number, even though we won't even tell you what X and Y are, and Y includes international orders which not even diamond knows about.

 

 

[darkstar]

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

There is no best way. You have no idea how far off that number is. It could be off by 10 copies or 1000 copies. Since people are primarily using this estimation to calculate the rarity of a sought after incentive cover, coming up with an estimation with no indication to its degree of accuracy means nothing and is potentially monetarily damaging.

[revat]

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

There is no best way. You have no idea how far off that number is. It could be off by 10 copies or 1000 copies. Since people are primarily using this estimation to calculate the rarity of a sought after incentive cover, coming up with an estimation with no indication to its degree of accuracy means nothing and is potentially monetarily damaging.

 

Agree. Do your own internal math according to what you think and any available knowledge or information you have to make your own financial buy/sell decisions. But to espouse anything other than extremely vague general opinions full of disclaimers regarding print run is disingenuous at best, unless you have more actual evidence.

Ratio from regular sold per comichron doesn't equal number ordered doesn't equal number printed doesn't equal number made available, except when it does it does, but we will never know.

 

Which doesn't mean very reasonable people can't use available evidence to draw conclusions and make wise ( but still risky) financial decisions. Of course you can. But when you're explaining your decisions, please be careful in the wording you use. It makes a difference, and especially watch out for blanket statements.

 

 

 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

There is no best way. You have no idea how far off that number is. It could be off by 10 copies or 1000 copies. Since people are primarily using this estimation to calculate the rarity of a sought after incentive cover, coming up with an estimation with no indication to its degree of accuracy means nothing and is potentially monetarily damaging.

Of course there's a best way. That doesn't necessarily mean there isn't a high margin for error in that way. Picking a number from one to a million is one way of guessing the print run, but certainly it's not as good as referencing the Diamond orders and the ratio. It's given that we don't know a lot of the variables. But if we want to estimate a value that we're looking to pay for a book, or what we think we should get when selling a book, a very rough estimate is better than no estimate at all, I think.

[Aweandlorder]

Wont make it to 10 pages before lockdown

[bababooey]

Without information being released publicly, I think the ratio compared to the Diamond/comichron number is the best way to figure it, even if it's not 100% reliable.

 

There is no best way. You have no idea how far off that number is. It could be off by 10 copies or 1000 copies. Since people are primarily using this estimation to calculate the rarity of a sought after incentive cover, coming up with an estimation with no indication to its degree of accuracy means nothing and is potentially monetarily damaging.

Of course there's a best way. That doesn't necessarily mean there isn't a high margin for error in that way. Picking a number from one to a million is one way of guessing the print run, but certainly it's not as good as referencing the Diamond orders and the ratio. It's given that we don't know a lot of the variables. But if we want to estimate a value that we're looking to pay for a book, or what we think we should get when selling a book, a very rough estimate is better than no estimate at all, I think.

 

I agree with you, the only starting point are the industry figures available.

 

[Awax]

Wont make it to 10 pages before lockdown

 

Ibtl

[marmat]

let's say a book has a Chomichron order number of 80,000 & there is a 1:100 incentive.

Listing that particular incentive, I think it would be fair to say:

There could be as few as 800 printed.

 

But.

Nobody knows for sure.

 

I understand the logic, but...

 

what if it's second or third tier title? Can we expect that 800 Diamond account order 100 copies of said comic? The majority of Diamond accounts are small comic shops that can carry 10, 20, or maybe 50 copies of a second/third tier title. Maybe only the big dogs (like 20/30 big comic shops) can order 100 copies, so the copies printed of the 1:100 variant could be in the 200-300 range.

 

Maybe I am wrong, but the exact print run of variants is an info that ONLY the publisher knows for sure. And if he does not share the info, no way to know it from another source, with the same grade of accuracy.

[Lonzilla]

For a title that isn't a top 10 seller, most shops won't be ordering 50 copies to get the incentive variant. For example: Fantastic Four #3 (Jan 2013), distro numbers were 50,555 so there's most likely less than 1,000 copies of the 1:50 Dell'Otto variant cover.

It's been argued that it's not cost effective for Marvel to print only 500 or so copies of a book, and since the interiors are the same, I'm sure they just run off the covers separately so they could do even 100or 200 copies of a variant and not bat an eye.

The only companies that are forthcoming with their print runs when it comes to variants are indies such as Image and Black Mask

[IntoAnother]

For a title that isn't a top 10 seller, most shops won't be ordering 50 copies to get the incentive variant. For example: Fantastic Four #3 (Jan 2013), distro numbers were 50,555 so there's most likely less than 1,000 copies of the 1:50 Dell'Otto variant cover.

It's been argued that it's not cost effective for Marvel to print only 500 or so copies of a book, and since the interiors are the same, I'm sure they just run off the covers separately so they could do even 100or 200 copies of a variant and not bat an eye.

 

The only companies that are forthcoming with their print runs when it comes to variants are indies such as Image and Black Mask

 

Unfortunately even those numbers are highly unlikely to be exactly accurate when you factor in replacement/creator copies.

[Lonzilla]

For a title that isn't a top 10 seller, most shops won't be ordering 50 copies to get the incentive variant. For example: Fantastic Four #3 (Jan 2013), distro numbers were 50,555 so there's most likely less than 1,000 copies of the 1:50 Dell'Otto variant cover.

It's been argued that it's not cost effective for Marvel to print only 500 or so copies of a book, and since the interiors are the same, I'm sure they just run off the covers separately so they could do even 100or 200 copies of a variant and not bat an eye.

 

The only companies that are forthcoming with their print runs when it comes to variants are indies such as Image and Black Mask

 

Unfortunately even those numbers are highly unlikely to be exactly accurate when you factor in replacement/creator copies.

If the WCNGH creators say that a variant has only 100 copies, I tend to believe them, especially if they're numbered.

It's no different than a band releasing a limited edition colored vinyl record of 100 or 200 copies. They put the number pressed out there. I've been on that end with my old band and the yellow vinyl copies that our label said were made is the exact number (100)

[IntoAnother]

For a title that isn't a top 10 seller, most shops won't be ordering 50 copies to get the incentive variant. For example: Fantastic Four #3 (Jan 2013), distro numbers were 50,555 so there's most likely less than 1,000 copies of the 1:50 Dell'Otto variant cover.

It's been argued that it's not cost effective for Marvel to print only 500 or so copies of a book, and since the interiors are the same, I'm sure they just run off the covers separately so they could do even 100or 200 copies of a variant and not bat an eye.

 

The only companies that are forthcoming with their print runs when it comes to variants are indies such as Image and Black Mask

 

Unfortunately even those numbers are highly unlikely to be exactly accurate when you factor in replacement/creator copies.

If the WCNGH creators say that a variant has only 100 copies, I tend to believe them, especially if they're numbered.

It's no different than a band releasing a limited edition colored vinyl record of 100 or 200 copies. They put the number pressed out there. I've been on that end with my old band and the yellow vinyl copies that our label said were made is the exact number (100)

 

Numbered copies does not mean extras were not made above the stated print run for the creators or as replacement copies. I'm not following the comparison to vinyl. I don't follow the vinyl market so am not sure a local band can charge $100 for a vinyl the way the WCNGH team did with the NYCC variant sets knowing they would be flipped for even more on eBay.