How can you estimate modern variant print runs?

[RockMyAmadeus]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

How close the moon is to earth is totally unrelated to the number of stars in the sky, whereas the number of books that are ordered for an issue is certainly a factor in how many copies are going to printed of a title. So you presented a poor analogy.

 

Try re-reading AND COMPREHENDING what I wrote. If you think it's pointless to try to get a ballpark figure unless one can be certain that the number is very close, then fine; you're entitled to your opinion. I acknowledged that there's a high margin of error, but that without more information that it's the best way to estimate how many are out there. Not a foolproof way to determine the exact print run. Certainly it's a better way than randomly guessing, because the order numbers and the ratios are, at the very least, part of the equation.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

Oh, and it certainly wasn't the amount in the case. The box wasn't particularly big, and certainly wouldn't have fit as many TPBs as the number indicated.

[RockMyAmadeus]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

How close the moon is to earth is totally unrelated to the number of stars in the sky, whereas the number of books that are ordered for an issue is certainly a factor in how many copies are going to printed of a title. So you presented a poor analogy.

 

Not true at all. Read what I actually wrote. How close the moon is to the earth affects how many stars you can see in the sky....barely.

 

And in that sense, that makes the analogy rather apt, doesn't it? It's relevant...barely.

 

Try re-reading AND COMPREHENDING what I wrote.

 

I would say you ought to do that, yourself, first. You didn't even read and comprehend my analogy, and now you're kvetching about someone ELSE not comprehending? Physician, heal thyself!

 

Since I did you the courtesy of pointing out your lack of comprehension, where do you believe mine is? Because I take the time to understand what people are saying before replying...which is very rare around here, including with you, as demonstrated above. You didn't even comprehend my analogy.

 

If you think it's pointless to try to get a ballpark figure unless one can be certain that the number is very close,

 

Nope. Not what I said at all.

 

There's a difference between "very close" and "within the realm of reason."

 

Using Comichron's numbers are not only NOT "very close", they're not even within the realm of reason. You don't know, I don't know, no one knows except the publisher and the printer and *maybe* Diamond, and they aren't talking, and for allllllllllllllllllllll the various and assorted variables that have been brought up, it's not even within the realm of reason....maybe....maybe...as a very broad, "same universe" starting point...maybe. But it's never presented that way, is it? No, it's not. Comichron numbers are taken as gospel, and you have people who don't know what they're doing coming to conclusions they ought not be coming to, and leading others astray.

 

then fine; you're entitled to your opinion. I acknowledged that there's a high margin of error, but that without more information that it's the best way to estimate how many are out there.

 

The best way doesn't mean it's a good way or even a reasonable way.

 

Not a foolproof way to determine the exact print run. Certainly it's a better way than randomly guessing, because the order numbers and the ratios are, at the very least, part of the equation.

 

It's no better than randomly guessing. In fact...it's WORSE than randomly guessing...know why...?

 

Because people, as has been done here for a while now, don't understand that those numbers aren't print numbers, and they don't understand that Marvel and DC and some others don't reveal retailer incentive print run information, and...here's the kicker....it SOUNDS REASONABLE to use those numbers, and VOILA! We have the problem we have now, with people quoting Comichron as if Comichron ITSELF doesn't say those are ESTIMATES of SALES (NOT PRINT RUNS), and you see people saying "well, gosh, if it was 1:100, and Comichron says they printed 75,363 of the regular, then Marvel must have printed 754 copies of the incentive!"

 

 

Which, of course, is entirely wrong.

 

That's why it's EVEN WORSE than "randomly guessing", because it leads to bad conclusions.

 

At some point, you're standing on the shore, shooting an arrow into the ocean, hoping to hit a specific fish. It doesn't work.

[bababooey]

Note to the OP, RMA says you can't.

 

Next opinion.

[Bird]

sm-sm-smelly!

 

[GLCBrad]

Note to the OP, RMA says you can't.

 

Next opinion.

 

Why thank you.

 

and a baba-booey to y'all

 

I'm very proud of the fact that the moderns heating up eBay thread is down to a trickle.

[bababooey]

Don't get too carried away, the "Moderns heating up on e-bay" is a Monday to Friday thread.

 

Those are full time pump n dumpers, they get weekends off.

 

[LarrysComics]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public

 

That's not what I said.( although that happens enough )

I was merely trying to illustrate that for years, I've had a dialogue with publisher's of all sizes about print runs in different situations.

I'm curious & ask questions.

 

 

Here's one Example:

I order 500 Sleepy Hollow exclusives.

I'm not entirely blind. I can read the label.

 

 

250 to a carton.

I just got two.

Why the other carton?

 

I call my liaison at Boom & he let me know that the company is under contract to prepare for potential damages. They need to overprint. Also they provide employees with comp copies and maintain an archive of their publications in house. I thought the print run of the book was 500, but now I understand why it was 750. ( I've heard this similar scenario from multiple publishers )

 

Often I encounter printer labels on cases that let me know EXACTLY how many copies are printed. ( I didn't cross this label out, & know it's legible )

 

 

 

Often I encounter printer labels on cases that let me know EXACTLY how many REGULAR copies are printed. I'M certainly capable of comparing that number to Comichron.

 

And I've found labels to incentives that I already had the regular issue numbers to.

 

Hope that's more clear.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BarryAllen]

[Jaydogrules]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public

 

That's not what I said.( although that happens enough )

I was merely trying to illustrate that for years, I've had a dialogue with publisher's of all sizes about print runs in different situations.

I'm curious & ask questions.

 

 

Here's one Example:

I order 500 Sleepy Hollow exclusives.

I'm not entirely blind. I can read the label.

 

 

250 to a carton.

I just got two.

Why the other carton?

 

I call my liaison at Boom & he let me know that the company is under contract to prepare for potential damages. They need to overprint. Also they provide employees with comp copies and maintain an archive of their publications in house. I thought the print run of the book was 500, but now I understand why it was 750. ( I've heard this similar scenario from multiple publishers )

 

Often I encounter printer labels on cases that let me know EXACTLY how many copies are printed. ( I didn't cross this label out, & know it's legible )

 

 

 

Often I encounter printer labels on cases that let me know EXACTLY how many REGULAR copies are printed. I'M certainly capable of comparing that number to Comichron.

 

And I've found labels to incentives that I already had the regular issue numbers to.

 

Hope that's more clear.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you Larry. Very informative and also consistent with what I've heard from other retailers. Seeing the actual cases is pretty cool too.

 

-J.

[BarryAllen]

Can you estimate modern variant print runs? Yes.

 

1. roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of.

 

2. an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something.

 

:shrug:

 

No one said it had to be accurate or the data unapproachable. Soapbox city corner preachers the lot of yah!

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public

 

That's not what I said.( although that happens enough )

I was merely trying to illustrate that for years, I've had a dialogue with publisher's of all sizes about print runs in different situations.

I'm curious & ask questions.

 

 

Here's one Example:

I order 500 Sleepy Hollow exclusives.

I'm not entirely blind. I can read the label.

 

 

250 to a carton.

I just got two.

Why the other carton?

 

I call my liaison at Boom & he let me know that the company is under contract to prepare for potential damages. They need to overprint. Also they provide employees with comp copies and maintain an archive of their publications in house. I thought the print run of the book was 500, but now I understand why it was 750. ( I've heard this similar scenario from multiple publishers )

 

Often I encounter printer labels on cases that let me know EXACTLY how many copies are printed. ( I didn't cross this label out, & know it's legible )

 

 

 

Often I encounter printer labels on cases that let me know EXACTLY how many REGULAR copies are printed. I'M certainly capable of comparing that number to Comichron.

 

And I've found labels to incentives that I already had the regular issue numbers to.

 

Hope that's more clear.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, but I'm pretty sure no one's disputing this. The fact that Boom printed an entire extra case says something...maybe not much, but in the case of Boom, they "rounded up" to an entire new case....assuming the quantity remained 250 in the 3rd case (which we don't know.)

 

That's the point...and I'm pretty sure you agreed with this at various parts of the discussion....we don't know. We can glean...and yes, those labels tell us quite a bit more about the situation than Comichron....but there's much we don't know, and I would love to find out.

 

I have had, over the years, cases, including a case of Darker Image #1 Gold (which, by the way, only had 150 copies in it) and a case of Ninjak #1 Gold (which had 200.) I also bought a case of Ash #1 DF (don't ask me why) and have that case lying around somewhere, too. If I come across them, I'll see what information I can glean.

 

Of course, these weren't retailer incentives, so the information stands to be a bit more transparent.

[fastballspecial]

Good information here if you can discern it.

 

Bad information here if you can't.

 

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

How close the moon is to earth is totally unrelated to the number of stars in the sky, whereas the number of books that are ordered for an issue is certainly a factor in how many copies are going to printed of a title. So you presented a poor analogy.

 

Not true at all. Read what I actually wrote. How close the moon is to the earth affects how many stars you can see in the sky....barely.

 

And in that sense, that makes the analogy rather apt, doesn't it? It's relevant...barely.

 

I read what you actually wrote. You made no mention of how many stars you can see, only of how close the moon is to earth. The number of stars you can see is dependent more on the relative positions of the earth, moon, and sun (affecting how much sunlight the moon is reflecting that is visible from earth), and that has little to do with how close the moon is. So it's either a bad analogy or a poorly explained analogy.

 

Try re-reading AND COMPREHENDING what I wrote.

 

I would say you ought to do that, yourself, first. You didn't even read and comprehend my analogy, and now you're kvetching about someone ELSE not comprehending? Physician, heal thyself!

 

Since I did you the courtesy of pointing out your lack of comprehension, where do you believe mine is? Because I take the time to understand what people are saying before replying...which is very rare around here, including with you, as demonstrated above. You didn't even comprehend my analogy.

 

If you think it's pointless to try to get a ballpark figure unless one can be certain that the number is very close,

 

Nope. Not what I said at all.

 

There's a difference between "very close" and "within the realm of reason."

 

Using Comichron's numbers are not only NOT "very close", they're not even within the realm of reason. You don't know, I don't know, no one knows except the publisher and the printer and *maybe* Diamond, and they aren't talking, and for allllllllllllllllllllll the various and assorted variables that have been brought up, it's not even within the realm of reason....maybe....maybe...as a very broad, "same universe" starting point...maybe. But it's never presented that way, is it? No, it's not. Comichron numbers are taken as gospel, and you have people who don't know what they're doing coming to conclusions they ought not be coming to, and leading others astray.

 

then fine; you're entitled to your opinion. I acknowledged that there's a high margin of error, but that without more information that it's the best way to estimate how many are out there.

 

The best way doesn't mean it's a good way or even a reasonable way.

 

Of course they're within the realm of reason. It's not reasonable to assume that any company is going to randomly assign print numbers.

 

Not a foolproof way to determine the exact print run. Certainly it's a better way than randomly guessing, because the order numbers and the ratios are, at the very least, part of the equation.

 

It's no better than randomly guessing. In fact...it's WORSE than randomly guessing...know why...?

 

Because people, as has been done here for a while now, don't understand that those numbers aren't print numbers, and they don't understand that Marvel and DC and some others don't reveal retailer incentive print run information, and...here's the kicker....it SOUNDS REASONABLE to use those numbers, and VOILA! We have the problem we have now, with people quoting Comichron as if Comichron ITSELF doesn't say those are ESTIMATES of SALES (NOT PRINT RUNS), and you see people saying "well, gosh, if it was 1:100, and Comichron says they printed 75,363 of the regular, then Marvel must have printed 754 copies of the incentive!"

 

 

Which, of course, is entirely wrong.

 

That's why it's EVEN WORSE than "randomly guessing", because it leads to bad conclusions.

 

At some point, you're standing on the shore, shooting an arrow into the ocean, hoping to hit a specific fish. It doesn't work.

 

How people use an estimate is a separate discussion, and doesn't affect whether an estimate is good as an estimate.

[RockMyAmadeus]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

How close the moon is to earth is totally unrelated to the number of stars in the sky, whereas the number of books that are ordered for an issue is certainly a factor in how many copies are going to printed of a title. So you presented a poor analogy.

 

Not true at all. Read what I actually wrote. How close the moon is to the earth affects how many stars you can see in the sky....barely.

 

And in that sense, that makes the analogy rather apt, doesn't it? It's relevant...barely.

 

I read what you actually wrote. You made no mention of how many stars you can see, only of how close the moon is to earth.

 

 

Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth.

 

(emphasis added.)

 

The number of stars you can see is dependent more on the relative positions of the earth, moon, and sun (affecting how much sunlight the moon is reflecting that is visible from earth), and that has little to do with how close the moon is. So it's either a bad analogy or a poorly explained analogy.

 

(emphasis added.)

 

Correct, which means it's got the same to do with it that the Comichron numbers have to do with the print runs of retailer incentives.

 

Let's not get buried in the weeds. Moving on....

 

Try re-reading AND COMPREHENDING what I wrote.

 

I would say you ought to do that, yourself, first. You didn't even read and comprehend my analogy, and now you're kvetching about someone ELSE not comprehending? Physician, heal thyself!

 

Since I did you the courtesy of pointing out your lack of comprehension, where do you believe mine is? Because I take the time to understand what people are saying before replying...which is very rare around here, including with you, as demonstrated above. You didn't even comprehend my analogy.

 

If you think it's pointless to try to get a ballpark figure unless one can be certain that the number is very close,

 

Nope. Not what I said at all.

 

There's a difference between "very close" and "within the realm of reason."

 

Using Comichron's numbers are not only NOT "very close", they're not even within the realm of reason. You don't know, I don't know, no one knows except the publisher and the printer and *maybe* Diamond, and they aren't talking, and for allllllllllllllllllllll the various and assorted variables that have been brought up, it's not even within the realm of reason....maybe....maybe...as a very broad, "same universe" starting point...maybe. But it's never presented that way, is it? No, it's not. Comichron numbers are taken as gospel, and you have people who don't know what they're doing coming to conclusions they ought not be coming to, and leading others astray.

 

then fine; you're entitled to your opinion. I acknowledged that there's a high margin of error, but that without more information that it's the best way to estimate how many are out there.

 

The best way doesn't mean it's a good way or even a reasonable way.

 

Of course they're within the realm of reason. It's not reasonable to assume that any company is going to randomly assign print numbers.

 

Except that no one's said that, ever, at any time, at any point, for any reason. No one has assumed that any company is going to assign print numbers "randomly" based on nothing but numbers out of a hat, or darts on a wall, because, frankly, that's stupid. So why respond as if someone HAD made that argument?

 

The print runs of the incentives are probably tied to the print runs of the regular books in some fashion.

 

But not necessarily.

 

Because we don't know what the reasons that Marvel and others have for printing whatever number they do, we can't say "well, the Comichron numbers are all we have, so we'll just have to go with that!"

 

That is the very heart of the issue. It could be that Marvel has a blanket (and this is supported, to a degree, by precedence and printer requirements) "we don't print less than 1,000 of any retailer incentive" policy, totally irrespective of the print runs of the regular issues. We don't know.

 

 

Not a foolproof way to determine the exact print run. Certainly it's a better way than randomly guessing, because the order numbers and the ratios are, at the very least, part of the equation.

 

It's no better than randomly guessing. In fact...it's WORSE than randomly guessing...know why...?

 

Because people, as has been done here for a while now, don't understand that those numbers aren't print numbers, and they don't understand that Marvel and DC and some others don't reveal retailer incentive print run information, and...here's the kicker....it SOUNDS REASONABLE to use those numbers, and VOILA! We have the problem we have now, with people quoting Comichron as if Comichron ITSELF doesn't say those are ESTIMATES of SALES (NOT PRINT RUNS), and you see people saying "well, gosh, if it was 1:100, and Comichron says they printed 75,363 of the regular, then Marvel must have printed 754 copies of the incentive!"

 

 

Which, of course, is entirely wrong.

 

That's why it's EVEN WORSE than "randomly guessing", because it leads to bad conclusions.

 

At some point, you're standing on the shore, shooting an arrow into the ocean, hoping to hit a specific fish. It doesn't work.

 

How people use an estimate is a separate discussion, and doesn't affect whether an estimate is good as an estimate.

 

No. That's the very reason the estimate is NOT "good as an estimate"...because people who don't know any better jump to conclusions that aren't warranted, and we have what we have here, as I've explained.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I estimate that there are 10,000,000 copies of Captain Marvel #17 Second Print (2014) sitting in a warehouse in Montreal, Canada.

 

Would anyone balk at that estimate?

 

Why, or why not?

 

Not all estimates are valid. Estimates, just like opinions, have to be based on reason, common sense, experience, data, precedence, etc. to be valid. The further from those things an estimate is, the less validity it has.

[bababooey]

Beaucoup Captain Marvel 17 impression le deuxième

 

(that was best translation of 'part print the second')

 

 

[Bird]

Fa-Fa-Francophile!

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

When I picked up the Summer of Valiant TPB exclusive from NYCC 2012 for members of the Valiant Fans board, they were packed up in a box from the printer that stated the print quantity. That's not going to be helpful for estimating print runs of regular editions distributed through retailers, but occasionally there will be some info out there for exclusives.

 

Yes, there are all sorts of official numbers out there, because many publishers (including Marvel) DO release that information. We know, for example, what the approximate print run was for the DF Ultimate Spiderman #1 (about 5,000.)

 

By the way....the "print quantity" you say was indicated....was that the entire print run, or just the case? Just have to make sure.

 

And, again, no. Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth. They're both in space...but they have only the most tenuous relation to each other. So why can't we estimate with any degree of certainly? Because publishers like Marvel don't release that information to the public. Until and if they do, no one has any idea. They may be exact orders (not at all likely.) They may be exact orders, plus a cushion for damage (still not too likely.) They may overprint them by 20%, 50%, 100%, 1000%. We don't know. And until we do, using the estimated SALES reported by Comichron is like shooting an arrow into the ocean from the shore and hoping to hit a specific fish.

 

Someone telling "Larry" over the phone is not "releasing that information to the public." Not that the information isn't valid...but it's not public.

How close the moon is to earth is totally unrelated to the number of stars in the sky, whereas the number of books that are ordered for an issue is certainly a factor in how many copies are going to printed of a title. So you presented a poor analogy.

 

Not true at all. Read what I actually wrote. How close the moon is to the earth affects how many stars you can see in the sky....barely.

 

And in that sense, that makes the analogy rather apt, doesn't it? It's relevant...barely.

 

I read what you actually wrote. You made no mention of how many stars you can see, only of how close the moon is to earth.

 

 

Using the Diamond numbers to estimate retailer incentives is like trying to estimate the number of stars you can see based on how close the moon is to the earth.

My mistake. I was reading and responding quickly. But it doesn't change the fact that the elements in your analogy are unrelated.

 

then fine; you're entitled to your opinion. I acknowledged that there's a high margin of error, but that without more information that it's the best way to estimate how many are out there.

 

The best way doesn't mean it's a good way or even a reasonable way.

 

Of course they're within the realm of reason. It's not reasonable to assume that any company is going to randomly assign print numbers.

 

Except that no one's said that, ever, at any time, at any point, for any reason. No one has assumed that any company is going to assign print numbers "randomly" based on nothing but numbers out of a hat, or darts on a wall, because, frankly, that's stupid. So why respond as if someone HAD made that argument?

I realize no one made that argument. I brought that up to provide an example of a bad way to estimate a print run. Certainly there are better ways, and a best way; that's the point of the discussion. It doesn't necessarily mean that the best way is going to provide a highly accurate result, but it will be more accurate than a random guess.