Overstreet prices for NM key books : key data or nonsense ?

[Peter_Parker59]

Everyone knows key books in NM condition sell for multiples of guide, as long as they're CGC'ed.

 

So why does Overstreet keep listing these books for so low in NM condition ?

 

Guide prices are supposed to be a fair reflection of the market.

Well, there are not, in this case.

 

If you tell me that CGC'ed NM key books sell for multiple of guide because they can't be suspected of being restored, I think this isn't really the point.

Bacause IMO, Guide prices are supposed to be valid about unrestored books only, anyway.

 

What would be logical would be :

- finding in the guide very high prices for NM key books (corresponding to what these actually sell for when CGC'ed)

- non-CGC'ed copies selling for much less than this re-evaluated price, since there's a restoration suspicion about them.

 

Well, what do you guys think ?

[Crowzilla]

The Overstreet guide has a long history of being overly conservative in it's price reports. Bob always did this to build consistency and to try and show that comics were worthy investment materials.

If you look over the 30 year history of the guide, you will see that Golden age keys have never declined in value (even though in the mid-late 70s they would sell for 50-80% of guide). Silver age keys have had exactly ONE price drop. Between Overstreet #13 and 14, FF #1 and Fantasy #15 each went down $100 (from $1200to $1100) and stayed at $1100 in the guides for the next three years. But these books were nearly impossible to sell at almost any price and dealers were anxious to dump them. I can remember trading Miller Daredevils, New Teen Titans, X-men and GI Joes (plus some of the hot B&W books) to pick up Fantasy #15, Spidey #1, Suspense #39 and others. Dealers were happy to be rid of those slow moving expensive books.

 

But; by being very conservative in his valuations, Bob has been able to give some stability and help guide the market through some very lean years. the guide has always lagged behind on high-grade sales, and it most likely will continue to do so until the collector base widens. The fact that the three highest graded copies of Marvel #1 were all bought by the same dealer, and that the 9.6 Spidey #1 and 9.4 Fantasy #15 were bought by the same dealer after passing last time is not a sign of a very large or liquid high-end market.

 

 

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

Add to that the fact that the Guide - and this is my personal view, not an official statement, since (thank God) I don't have anything to do with the pricing - does not price those CGC books you're referring to as selling for multiples. This is a price guide to comics, not specific slabbed comics.

[Kevin Boyd]

Well the guide is meant to be a guide, but the demand for high grade materials has changed the back issue market dramatically.

 

Arnoldt might be able to clarify this, but I believe it's been pointed out that the next Overstreet guide (due next month) will have some data available on books that grade higher than 9.4

 

I doubt that Overstreet can really afford to stay out of setting some guidelines for buying NM+ books now that they have such an important role in today's back issue market.

 

The restoration check is vital to CGC's success on the market, but I do see dealers marking up non-CGC'd books in high grade to multiples of guide because they want to sell books without paying for the slabbing costs. I guess there isn't anything inherently wrong (if people are willing to take the risk) with that except that you aren't getting the restoration check.

 

In some cases it's ridiculously expensive to buy CGC'd books at NM+ prices. To pay less and gamble on something raw that might get a NM+ grade from CGC is a risk that some people are willing to take. If they gamble properly they can make a healthy profit.

 

Kev

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

You can just call me Arnold, the "T" is my middle initial .

[Peter_Parker59]

Arnold,

 

In response to "This is a price guide to comics, not specific slabbed comics",

I will onject that this is a price guide to UNRESTORED comics, with one price for each condition for each issue.

So I stick to my point that Guide prices for NM books should be a fair reflection of the market, regarding the prices unrestored copies in this grade actually sell for, namely slabbed copies.

If unslabbed copies sell for a lot less, that's because they can be suspected of either being restored or overgraded by the seller. That's to say they're suspected of not being worth the real NM price, which therefore should stick to somewhere near what slabbed copies sell for.

 

I can understand that Bob has a function of softening the market with his guide, but silver age HG keys have been selling for way above guide for some years.

 

This is not a hectic movement of the market, but a steady trend, that should be accounted for.

 

Lastly, do note that I don't consider books above 9.4 here, since the guide doesn't give prices for them.

[Prophet78]

In respect to the dealers who are selling unslabbed books at close to slabbed prices because this is what grade they would recieve. That is a bunch of hooey. I have to agree with what you say about them being either not of that grade or suspect of restoration. The only way to get around this is to show the dealer in question your middle finger when he says the price is "this" because it would fetch this grade. The only way to keep this from happening is to not buy from those dealers. If it would get that grade, then send the mofo in and get the grade and sell it for what it is truly worth.

 

Bah! to those dealers!

 

-Jeremy-

[seank]

Everyone knows key books in NM condition sell for multiples of guide, as long as they're CGC'ed.

 

So why does Overstreet keep listing these books for so low in NM condition ?

 

First, OS lists values for raw books, of which the vast majority of books out there are. Second, what's going to happen when this CGC bubble bursts? Many of these books that are going for multiples of guide may end up getting sold for guide or less when sanity prevails and people realize that a raw 9.4 Spidey is the same as a slabbed 9.4 Spidey except that one is encased in a plastic shell and the other isn't.

 

I will admit that the ultra HG market, 9.6 to 10.0 is a whole different beast, but it seems to attract a specific type of collector. These people are either savy and knowledgable making wise decisions, or they're speculators who will end up getting fleeced. OS is wise to mention this segment of the market, but it doesn't acknowledge the majority of the comic collectors.

[ArnoldTBlumberg]

"So I stick to my point that Guide prices for NM books should be a fair reflection of the market, regarding the prices unrestored copies in this grade actually sell for, namely slabbed copies."

 

Sorry, but as the previous poster pointed out, and as I always believed myself, the Guide isn't listing the prices of slabbed books, just comic - in other words, raw (although I thoroughly despise that term, but what can you do). While I'm sure the activity in the market on slabbed books has an effect on everything in one way or another, the book is listing the value of these collectibles as they are, without any enhancements, encapsulation, or anything else. Makes sense to me. But like I've said many times, I'm just glad I'm not involved in that part of it. Pricing makes my head hurt.

[clobberintime]

You mean 3 years of cgc price multiples isn't enough to overturn all the decades of price guide info? I think it is time Overstreet became more like Wizard and print a monthly guide and increase all prices every month - and recommend paying 4 to 10x guide for all cgc 9.4+ books. The other day I saw some Valiant stuff on ebay and pulled out the new wizard to check prices. They don't even list Valiant prices anymore! Just imagine if they pumped cgc prices the way Wizrd used to do with Valiants, maybe in 10 years the entire market for comics would be dead.

[Kevin Boyd]

Do people actually look at the Wizard price guide?

 

I only look at the jokes they put in the photo descriptions on each page.

 

I've always thought that they should scrap that section and put in more badly researched, poorly written articles and more fictional market reports.

 

Kev

[blowout]

Overstreet has never been about reporting short term price fluctuations in its guide and should not start now. The CGC market is still imature and the price multiples being paid for high grade books cannot be relied upon to continue.

Clobberin actually summed it up pretty well with his analogy to Wizard.

[clobberintime]

I remember a lot of stores used it since they raized book prices almost every month! I am not sure why I buy it now and then - I read the upcoming movie stories and such but haven't looked at the price guide part in a long time. They may have dropped Valiant prices a few years ago for all I know. But i did think it was pretty funny given that they were the ones that helped create the hype.

[blowout]

I've always thought that they should scrap that section and put in more badly researched, poorly written articles and more fictional market reports.

 

Come on kev, thats a bit harsh.

While I admit the price guide is a joke for the most part, Wizard actually have some very interesting/informative articles.

Recent examples include those on Bill Finger and Steve Ditko.

[Kevin Boyd]

ACTUALLY, Overstreet used to publish regular magazine size price updates which did cover the minor monthly fluctuations. I used to enjoy reading their extensive market reports section.

 

The Overstreet Update mag evolved into the Wizard-like Overstreet's Fan magazine, which lasted a couple of years and scrapped most of the market reports in favor of hyped up reviews and interviews.

 

Kev

[Kevin Boyd]

It wasn't meant to be just a BIT harsh.

 

Although I still buy it every month (habit?) I have no love for Wizard as a magazine.

 

Kev

 

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

But i did think it was pretty funny given that they were the ones that helped create the hype.

 

CGC...BELIEVE THE HYPE!! Seriously, I totally agree with your evaluation of Wizard. Is history repeating itself in another way (other than Wizard's bogus pricing scheme)?

 

If only I had a way of knowing how many CGC comic auctions have been shilled, or an auction where a buyer backed out.

[blowout]

So you don't consider any of their articles have merit?

[FlyingDonut]

This is almost a ludicrous discussion. I would wager that 95% of all comic books sold in America are NOT CGC slabbed. Why would you POSSIBLY want to jack up the prices in Overstreet because of a very very small section of the marketplace?

 

Now that I think about it, I'd bet that percentage is higher. 99% probably. Go to a big show and count the number of slabbed books THERE, not just the ones being sold. I'll bet you the total number of slabbed books at Wizard Philadelphia, for example, will be under 1000, while there will be 100,000 total comics in the room, and the real pricing should be on the majority of books sold.

[blowout]

If only I had a way of knowing how many CGC comic auctions have been shilled, or auction where a buyer backed out

 

Thats like knowing what horse will win a race or which lottery numbers will come up.