Understanding print run calculations for ratio variants...

[revat]

Applying the distribution ratios to Comichron numbers to arrive at some sort of estimate of the print runs of the incentive variants is no more...and, frankly, no less...accurate than applying the number of organic tomatoes I bought last week to the Comichron numbers to arrive at the same conclusion. In both cases, you would be trying to apply completely unrelated numbers to arrive at "estimates."

You've made ridiculous suggestions like this before. And they're still ridiculous.

 

Such a charmer, you are. No benefit of the doubt, no humility, no "what do you mean by that?", just straight to the insults. Lovely.

 

I would ask you to cite examples of these previous "ridiculous statements", but everyone reading this knows that proving claims around here isn't required, expected, or even wanted. Reason? Common courtesy? Responsible comments? Eff that, this is the CGC board!

 

You've got over 47,000. I have neither the time nor the desire to go through your posts to find the examples that are similar to this. Suffice to say that it was on the topic of print runs, perhaps in the Moderns Heating Up thread.

 

You're suggesting that the quantity of a book that's ordered is in no way going to affect how many of that book are printed? Seriously?

 

No.

 

Not in the slightest.

 

I didn't say anything remotely like that.

 

Read it again.

 

I'll give you an important hint: I'm not talking about a (one) book.

 

Here's another important hint: the "Comichron numbers" includes (generally) all copies sold of that particular book, including all variants, the first month it's for sale.

 

You're equating the influence of organic tomatoes purchases to comichron numbers. So either, yes, you did say something like that, or (to be fair, I hadn't considered this) you think that organic tomato purchases are far more relevant to the setting of print runs in comics than is commonly realized. I'll leave it to you to clarify which it is.

 

I'm a big Raiders fan, they are far and away my favorite football team. I had season tickets to Raiders games 5 years ago. I went to a bar and watched the NFL draft with some other Raider fan friends this year. Can you predict with any certainty how many Raiders games I watched last year? How much more information do you need to even make a remotely reasonable guess?

 

I guess you could make a very general loose correlation that IF I had free time when the Raiders were playing that I would PROBABLY watch the game. But that gives you very little info on how many games I actually watched or if any given Sunday I was actually watching any specific game. You certainly could make a guess, and might even be right, but its not a supportable estimate.

 

 

[Prince Namor]

Exactly

[Prince Namor]

There is NO correlation between the numbers.

 

There is nothing stated to make a correlation between the numbers.

 

If a retailer buys 25 of a book to get the 1:25 variant, that is ALL that is promised. He bought 25, he gets a copy of the variant.

 

Marvel has never, NEVER, NEVER EVER said, we only print to the amount needed, or close to it, or rounded up to the case size, or ANYTHING relating to making these variants known in print quantity or value.

 

The PURPOSE of the incentive variant - and if you ever get a chance to go to a Diamond Retailer Summit (I've been to plenty), you'll see - is to get the RETAILER to buy MORE copies of the REGULAR comic.

 

PERIOD.

 

Marvel has no interest in promoting these as valuable, talking to us about making them valuable, or even discussing the print runs of the variants - believe me, I've tried to pin them down on this information and THEY DON"T EVEN WANT TO DISCUSS IT.

 

They're being coy about it for a reason.

 

Because in the collectibles world, if you're creating a 'collectible of value', based upon some determined number of items created, you can get in a sticky legal situation if someone is able to show, you're creating MORE than you claim. Marvel makes NO CLAIM as to the number of these they print, and it's in their best interests NOT to.

 

They'd like to see customers BELIEVE they have some value, because they'll buy them from retailers, who will in turn continue to order up to higher quantities, BUT, they in no way want to infer that these are a collectible item.

 

The value of variants in general is on the decline. Yes, there is the occasional sky rocket, but IN GENERAL, variants have majorly lost their steam over the years...

 

...DESPITE the interest that's still there.

 

NOW....

 

In collectibles, when something still has an interest, but prices aren't escalating, but rather flatlining or declining, what is the problem?

 

Supply. Too much.

 

It's really very simple.

[Prince Namor]

It also helps to understand the nature of the Direct Market.

 

Publishers believe that the problem with most privately owned comic book stores is that we just don't order ENOUGH of the NON-RETURNABLE items they have for sale.

 

If for example, some store has 5 subscription customers for 'Moon Girl and Devil Dinosaur', and they get maybe 2 copies for the shelf, Marvel (the publisher) feels they're UNDER-ORDERING on it and if they'd just buy it in the same quantities as 'Uncanny X-Men', that they'd SELL more copies of it.

 

Which anyone in the comic retailer business knows, JUST ISN'T true.

 

But publisher's see it this way and so the idea of the 'incentive variant' was created as a way to get retailers to take a chance on some of these books and to increase orders in general.

 

By giving them a 1:25 (or 50, or 100) that they could then sell to a customer for a premium price, it would off set the cost to get in this extra product that they would soon see SELLS RIGHT OFF THE SHELF!

 

Except it doesn't happen that way.... in general, most of these books peak at #1 and slowly decrease in order numbers.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

There is NO correlation between the numbers.

 

There is nothing stated to make a correlation between the numbers.

 

If a retailer buys 25 of a book to get the 1:25 variant, that is ALL that is promised. He bought 25, he gets a copy of the variant.

 

Marvel has never, NEVER, NEVER EVER said, we only print to the amount needed, or close to it, or rounded up to the case size, or ANYTHING relating to making these variants known in print quantity or value.

 

The PURPOSE of the incentive variant - and if you ever get a chance to go to a Diamond Retailer Summit (I've been to plenty), you'll see - is to get the RETAILER to buy MORE copies of the REGULAR comic.

 

PERIOD.

 

Marvel has no interest in promoting these as valuable, talking to us about making them valuable, or even discussing the print runs of the variants - believe me, I've tried to pin them down on this information and THEY DON"T EVEN WANT TO DISCUSS IT.

 

They're being coy about it for a reason.

 

Because in the collectibles world, if you're creating a 'collectible of value', based upon some determined number of items created, you can get in a sticky legal situation if someone is able to show, you're creating MORE than you claim. Marvel makes NO CLAIM as to the number of these they print, and it's in their best interests NOT to.

 

They'd like to see customers BELIEVE they have some value, because they'll buy them from retailers, who will in turn continue to order up to higher quantities, BUT, they in no way want to infer that these are a collectible item.

 

The value of variants in general is on the decline. Yes, there is the occasional sky rocket, but IN GENERAL, variants have majorly lost their steam over the years...

 

...DESPITE the interest that's still there.

 

NOW....

 

In collectibles, when something still has an interest, but prices aren't escalating, but rather flatlining or declining, what is the problem?

 

Supply. Too much.

 

It's really very simple.

 

 

And that's why trying to use the distribution ratios to determine/estimate the print runs of incentive variants...as easy and appealing as those numbers seem to be...will not work. There isn't any correlation. If a variant is 1:100, and the regular book had a print run of 100,000 copies (which we don't know), that does not mean the print run of the variant was 1,000 copies. It *might* be. But if it is, it's not because of the distribution ratio.

 

Those distribution ratio numbers have meaning only when it comes to ordering at the retail level. Beyond that, they have no meaning, and assigning or extrapolating further meaning to them leads to inaccurate conclusions.

 

And, despite the best intentions of some, using the "data" that's "available" only makes matters worse. Incorrect data is worse than no data.

 

Frankly, I have never understood why this was so controversial, and why it was so important to hold on to this erroneous information, unless it was by people who wanted, for reasons of their owns, to make certain variants appear more rare than they really are.

 

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

I'm just going to leave this right here again one more time .....

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=9137981&fpart=7

 

-J.

[BarryAllen]

[Lazyboy]

I'm just going to leave this right here again one more time .....

 

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=9137981&fpart=7

 

-J.

 

1. Valiant is only Valiant, they are not Marvel, DC, Image, or any other publisher.

 

2. "In 2012, all Valiant books had at least 1,000 copies."

 

Even a small publisher like Valiant is known to have significantly overprinted comics.

 

3. "I believe that is what Greg is saying and that Dino has confirmed: VEI claims to actually print the number the ratios indicate they do, unlike Marvel/DC."

 

When you get a similar statement from anybody in authority at Marvel or DC, let us know.

 

4. "Here's the time line of events:

In 2013 Diamond sells massive amounts of overstock incentive variants for 75 cents each.

Marvel comes under scrutiny from retailers for printing more copies than the 'incentive' states.

Marvel takes a 'hardline PR stance' that they are printing now close to the 'incentive' numbers.

In 2015 Marvel then comes under scrutiny for Star Wars Variants and Action Figure Variants showing up as give aways at shows, as Diamond give aways to retailers, and even on sale through Diamond after the fact. (The Gwen Variants were on sale after the fact to at a Diamond Summit)

Marvel again takes a 'hardline PR stance' that they are printing now close to the 'incentive' numbers.

People who don't know any better, or WANT them to have a 'rarity' will continue to be deceived."

 

 

But the gem of the thread is actually from you:

"It shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that Marvel would in fact over print a book that was as heavily anticipated and ordered like star wars."

 

Even though your whole worthless argument is that publishers print the absolute minimum they need based on the actual order numbers, which means overprinting (outside of case rounding) should be impossible!

[Jaydogrules]

Wow. Talk about not being able to see the forest for the trees.

 

-J.