The Future of Comic Book Collecting & Investing

[1Cool]

I went to a local hotel comic show last year. There was a stamp show going on in the next ballroom. Everyone at the stamp show, which was less than 15 people including the vendors. All had aged to the point of blue hair. The comic show which had less than 35 people was a mix of kids and adults.

 

There are a lot of kids showing up at comic cons pretty much each and every weekend. But I'd guess the number of kids with comic book collections that they may keep or want to rebuy as adults is very very small percentage wise. From what I've seen most kids are there for either cos-play, celebrities or just tagging along for something to do on a Sunday afternoon. I gave away books to kids under 12 and most had no interest in the books and had to be "forced" by their parents to pick out a book.

[romanheart]

I think you are good for the next 10 years.

 

In the long term, I honestly don't know. I think it looks kind of bleak.

 

- Comics are geared towards teens and older collectors.

- The price of a single book at the store is quite expensive for a little kid who has different options to spend his money, be it candy or whatever.

- They aren't as accessible to buy at the store as they once were.

- The readership is not like it once was.

- The affect of movies/tv to hype the industry will run its' course eventually.

 

So after that, unless you have something historic, rare, and hopefully in optimal condition I wouldn't stay in it for the long haul.

 

Could the outlook turn? I think so.

- back to $1 comics

- make them available in your local variety store.

- stop the rebooting

- cartoons geared towards kids

- any other idea that promotes the next younger generation (under 18) picking up a book

 

If we can get top issues in the top 10 selling above 100,000 regularly each month without the number bump you can sleep easy.

 

However, I am a collector so frankly I agree with the person who first responded and I generally collect whatever I like. I look at the $ value as guide more to when I should pick something up as opposed to if I should pick it up.

[islandmisfittoys]

I like that women are making up a larger percentage of collectors. Name another major collecting medium you can say that about

[FlyingDonut]

This forum has been around for almost 15 years.

 

I've you'd listened to people across this time period, THE SKY HAS ALWAYS BEEN FALLING and the market is due for a huge correction in 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 soon quickly eventually a while.

 

Buy what you like.

[lou_fine]

Here's my Question:

 

In about 20-30 years from now, will Comic Book Collecting still be hot?

 

In other words, as current collectors who average in age 50 and up start to die off (sorry for the morbidity), assuming their heirs liquidate their collections; will there still be a strong demand for comic books whereby their values will still remain strong?

 

Some possibilities:

 

1. No: Values will Fall: As collectors start to die, their heirs (the majority of which have no appreciation for these books) will quickly sell and there will be a "flood" (OK maybe not quite a flood; but certainly more supply) thereby driving prices down.

 

3. It depends on the Book: Golden Age Books might actually take a hit. The reasoning being that as a population matures, each generation harkens back to what they emotionally identify with as children. So if you buy into this argument, then in years to come future adults will be more interested in modern age books and the Golden & Silver Age will loose value (maybe not all of their value but certainly a decent percentage).

 

I would love to hear your thoughts. Please let's try to keep this "logical/analytical".

 

 

In response to the naysayers who are leaning towards Options 1 and 3, I had posted the following in another thread just last month prior to the new guide coming out, but is probably also appropriate for this thread:

 

Reminds me of the first time I was down at the SD Con in the very early 90's.

 

McFarlane was the rage at the time and all of the hucksters had the so-called super rare Platinum edition of Spidey 1 up on their walls at the bargain basement price of only $1,000.

 

One dealer laughed at me when he saw that I had picked up uber HG copies of Captain America 29 & 31 for $1,000 and said that I was throwing my money away as these books would be worthless when the old timers left the hobby.

 

Went on to say that I would be missing the opportunity of a lifetime if I passed on the Spidey 1 for the same $1,000 as I would never ever see it again at that price. Turns out he was 100% dead right on that point as it went straight down to about $100 over time and has probably only moved up at a snail's pace from there. So, not much chance of seeing it at $1,000 again.

 

And in the meantime, it turns out the two Caps will most likely never see $1,000 again as they have moved up quite nicely in guide from that $1K mark to almost $14,000 now with the old geezers leaving the marketplace.

 

Needless to say, you would be lucky today to get back 25% of the original $1,000 asking price for the once red-hot Spidey 1, whereas you would have absolutely no problems finding hungry buyers for both of the Cap's at a healthy premium to top of guide.

 

Interesting to note that eBay just had 2 completed sales for raw VG copies of Wonderworld Comics #11 and #12 that sold for around $2,700 when condition guide value is only around $400. Or how about the raw Poor 0.5 copy of Action 13 that sold recently on Heritage for almost $15K or the many copies of 'Tec 31 selling for $20K+ in 0.5 condition or for $43K in CGC 1.0 graded condition (i.e. all at huge multiples to condition guide prices).

 

So much for the continuing demise of the GA books which have been talked about for so many decades now.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

The comics market is so radically different from what it was 25-30 years ago, it's impossible to predict anything that far out.

 

25-30 years ago, the "hot artist" ruled. If John Byrne touched an issue, it was worth 10 times surrounding issues. Same with Starlin. Same with Art Adams. Same with Neal Adams, who was the first. Same with, of course, McFarlane, Lee, and, to a much lesser extent, Liefeld.

 

That era is completely dead.

 

Conventional wisdom back then was to buy copies of books featuring what's-his-face's art. Can't go wrong.

 

Now? Worthless. No one cares. The market certainly doesn't.

 

And...back then, buyers were generally collectors, who were invested, so to speak, in characters and storylines.

 

As a result, a book like New Mutants #88, which has Cable's second appearance, was a $30 book while #87 was $65.

 

Now?

 

#88 is a dollar book. Yes, literally. #87 is, what, $500-$600 in 9.8? You can't sell #88s in 9.8 for $30.

 

No one cares.

 

Back then, appearances by hot characters were sought after, driving the price up on books like Amazing Spiderman #285, #289, modern Joker appearances, Ghost Rider #5, even Human Fly #2. Now? No one cares.

 

If it's not the first appearance, no one cares, which is why there's such a silly effort to call "previews" and "ads" first appearances.

 

Back in the 70's, 80's, and even early 90's, "#1" issues were all the rage, which is why there were so many of them. TMNT #1, for example...solid $100+ book through much of the late 80's/early 90's. #2? Eh. $20. #5? $2.

 

Now, the first issue only matters if it's the first appearance...of someone. Otherwise, it doesn't matter. Ghost Rider #1, the hottest back issue of the summer of 1990? zzzzzz

 

Ghost Rider #1 from 1973? zzzzzz

 

Punisher #1 from 1985 OR 1987? zzzzzz

 

Back in the early 90's, "key storylines" had a great deal of success, and the early ones were sought after (Dark Phoenix, Kraven's Last Hunt, Death In The Family, Batman Year One, Year Two, Ten Nights, etc)

 

Now? No one cares.

 

Obviously, these are broad strokes, and when I say "no one" I mean "mostly no one", but it's fairly accurate.

 

The market is so radically different from the late 80's/early 90's, you wouldn't have been able to predict it then. I did what I was "supposed" to do: I bought all the "hot artist" work, I bought all the "first, second, third appearances", the first issues, everything that had been hot, and was "guaranteed" to be valuable. I stayed away from the "currently hot", and the expensive modern junk, and focused on what the market was saying would have potential.

 

It's amazing how much none of that stuff matters, while people pay thousands of dollars for modern manufactured rarities, and first appearances only, and shun anything and everything that isn't those two things.

 

So what will the market be like in 25-30 years? Who knows. Maybe all anyone will care about is Archie comics. He's due, right...?

 

[porcupine48]

go double digests

[the blob]

So tired of this end of the world stuff. Kids like the characters. Who among us 40 somethings was ever really into stamps and stamps were still pretty big when i was a kid (heck, i briefly collected for 5 minutes)? My kid and his friends seem to like to read comics. Are they going to plop down $30 of their own money to have 90 minutes of reading? NO. are they necessarily interested in "collecting" as in "this is going to be worth something one day" like many of us in our 40s were back when we were kids? not as much. Would my kid's head explode if I gave him a copy of New Mutants 98 for Christmas? Yes. Would most of his buddies think it is very cool to own Deadpool's first app? Yes. Would they spend $200 of their own money on a copy? No. When he has a job and disposable income might he be interested in collecting these characters he loves? Maybe.

 

Comics aren't stamps in that people will be interested in the characters so long as they have interesting stories. Whether in 15 years a 27 year old will plop down a bunch of loot for the first app. of Kamelah Kahn as Ms. Marvel...I dunno.

 

I just don't think it's a great analogy.

 

Pulps on the other hand...

[the blob]

Here's my Question:

 

In about 20-30 years from now, will Comic Book Collecting still be hot?

 

In other words, as current collectors who average in age 50 and up start to die off (sorry for the morbidity), assuming their heirs liquidate their collections; will there still be a strong demand for comic books whereby their values will still remain strong?

 

Some possibilities:

 

1. No: Values will Fall: As collectors start to die, their heirs (the majority of which have no appreciation for these books) will quickly sell and there will be a "flood" (OK maybe not quite a flood; but certainly more supply) thereby driving prices down.

 

2. Yes: Values will remain/retain overall as there is a current strong interest among a younger age group that will continue. Evidenced by seeing many many young kids at Cons. As they mature and their interest continues, they will want to know about the "Origins" and genesis of their favorite characters.

 

3. It depends on the Book: Golden Age Books might actually take a hit. The reasoning being that as a population matures, each generation harkens back to what they emotionally identify with as children. So if you buy into this argument, then in years to come future adults will be more interested in modern age books and the Golden & Silver Age will loose value (maybe not all of their value but certainly a decent percentage).

 

I would love to hear your thoughts. Please let's try to keep this "logical/analytical".

 

In 20 or 30 years the world may be such a miserable place folks may not be able to have the luxury of comic collecting. They'll be collecting whatever clean water, grubs, and gasoline they can find while battling savage bikers gangs in the desert. Giant Size x-men 1 will make a fine wick for the malotov cocktail I need to throw at the crazy guy with the mohawk trying to run over my grandkid.

[paperheart]

 

I've you'd listened to people across this time period, THE SKY HAS ALWAYS BEEN FALLING and the market is due for a huge correction in 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 soon quickly eventually a while.

 

 

[rjrjr]

Comic book investing has a lot in common with the Dutch tulip mania. Now the the publishers can pretty much keep any issue in print in one form or another, I believe comic investing's days are numbered. I doubt the investment we see today will exist in 20-30 years time. I'm sure the people who invested in tulips didn't think their investments were a bad idea at the time.

[the blob]

Needless to say, you would be lucky today to get back 25% of the original $1,000 asking price for the once red-hot Spidey 1, whereas you would have absolutely no problems finding hungry buyers for both of the Cap's at a healthy premium to top of guide.

 

---

 

That book was really going for $1000 back then? It wasn't even all that limited. You could buy a decent looking copy of AF 15 for that much back then. I'm not questioning it. Was never something I would have had any interest in.

 

They go for around $800 in CGC 9.8 now. But yeah, 9.6 copies are around 25% of the $1000 price.

[grebal]

Re: future demand for runs and non-keys.

 

On one hand, sure, all the baby boomers deteriorating into senescence (I'm past 50) into soon-to-be-old folk and retirees selling off collections for a few extra bucks will increase supply of books. Thoughts of a glut of retired baby-boom stock and the possibility of no buyers struck me a while back and I made a mental note back then to sell before it happened. ; )

 

But I've been reconsidering my 'wisdom' about weak future demand the past few months, and it's struck me that 1. foreign collectors could be a source of growth,

 

2. women collectors are far more numerous than I recall in the 70s, 80s, 90s or double-naughts (as heavy ebay seller 2001-03 I recall few if any gals but auctions a couple of months ago sold to around 6 female buyers out of 20 total), and

 

3. reports differ on how many young collectors are filling in back collections of old Batmans or Spidermans, but there's no reason to think about the same % of the population will tend to collect things as during past decades (whether it will be beer cans, dolls or old Life magazines is really the question, and I've no reason to believe comics will lose their obvious appeal in many respects).

 

[Marchosias]

Ok my turn....

 

In the next 20 years, comics/figures/Star Wars etc won't be worth mess. Probably sooner then that.

 

If anyone here watches current events, you would know what kind of shape the world is in. Its a freaking disaster in all nations. Here in the U.S., its just a question of time before SHTF.

 

China is completing a blue water Navy by 2019, Russia is building underground bunkers the size of cities under Moscow and other places. I could go on and on.

 

But to the point of this thread?

 

Won't be worth mess bro man.....Id sell in the next 5 years, maybe before.

 

 

And remember, have a great day everyone!

[GoldCap]

Yeah, I could see number 3 happening. I mostly collect what I like, so it doesn't bother me but being able to sell something in the future for more than you bought it for is always nice

[grebal]

Comic book investing has a lot in common with the Dutch tulip mania. Now the the publishers can pretty much keep any issue in print in one form or another, I believe comic investing's days are numbered. I doubt the investment we see today will exist in 20-30 years time. I'm sure the people who invested in tulips didn't think their investments were a bad idea at the time.

 

Demand from non-collectors doesn't drive the entire market, just a big chunk at one of the tails (of the normal distribution curve).

[lou_fine]

The comics market is so radically different from what it was 25-30 years ago, it's impossible to predict anything that far out.

 

25-30 years ago, the "hot artist" ruled. If John Byrne touched an issue, it was worth 10 times surrounding issues. Same with Starlin. Same with Art Adams. Same with Neal Adams, who was the first. Same with, of course, McFarlane, Lee, and, to a much lesser extent, Liefeld.

 

That era is completely dead.

 

Conventional wisdom back then was to buy copies of books featuring what's-his-face's art. Can't go wrong.

 

Now? Worthless. No one cares. The market certainly doesn't.

 

And...back then, buyers were generally collectors, who were invested, so to speak, in characters and storylines.

 

As a result, a book like New Mutants #88, which has Cable's second appearance, was a $30 book while #87 was $65.

 

Now?

 

#88 is a dollar book. Yes, literally. #87 is, what, $500-$600 in 9.8? You can't sell #88s in 9.8 for $30.

 

No one cares.

 

Back then, appearances by hot characters were sought after, driving the price up on books like Amazing Spiderman #285, #289, modern Joker appearances, Ghost Rider #5, even Human Fly #2. Now? No one cares.

 

If it's not the first appearance, no one cares, which is why there's such a silly effort to call "previews" and "ads" first appearances.

 

Back in the 70's, 80's, and even early 90's, "#1" issues were all the rage, which is why there were so many of them. TMNT #1, for example...solid $100+ book through much of the late 80's/early 90's. #2? Eh. $20. #5? $2.

 

Now, the first issue only matters if it's the first appearance...of someone. Otherwise, it doesn't matter. Ghost Rider #1, the hottest back issue of the summer of 1990? zzzzzz

 

Ghost Rider #1 from 1973? zzzzzz

 

Punisher #1 from 1985 OR 1987? zzzzzz

 

Back in the early 90's, "key storylines" had a great deal of success, and the early ones were sought after (Dark Phoenix, Kraven's Last Hunt, Death In The Family, Batman Year One, Year Two, Ten Nights, etc)

 

Now? No one cares.

 

Obviously, these are broad strokes, and when I say "no one" I mean "mostly no one", but it's fairly accurate.

 

The market is so radically different from the late 80's/early 90's, you wouldn't have been able to predict it then. I did what I was "supposed" to do: I bought all the "hot artist" work, I bought all the "first, second, third appearances", the first issues, everything that had been hot, and was "guaranteed" to be valuable. I stayed away from the "currently hot", and the expensive modern junk, and focused on what the market was saying would have potential.

 

It's amazing how much none of that stuff matters, while people pay thousands of dollars for modern manufactured rarities, and first appearances only, and shun anything and everything that isn't those two things.

 

So what will the market be like in 25-30 years? Who knows. Maybe all anyone will care about is Archie comics. He's due, right...?

 

+1

 

Excellent historical summary and the path taken by once hot books from back not so long ago.

 

Only thing I would disagree with is your last sentence as the early Archie books have already arrived in a big way several years ago. You need not only look at Pep 22 and Archie 1, but take a gander at the prices in the marketplace for books such as Jackpot 4 and Pep 34, amongst too many others to mention.

[GM8]

Love all the doom and gloom gents. It's as if the question was "who can win a game of comic-doom-brinkmanship!

 

Seriously though, here is my take. I've been collecting on and off since the 80's.

 

Comics will still be collectible far into the future subject to the prevailing economic conditions. We will see devaluations during recessions and overvaluations during expansions. Nothing really new there.

 

What will overall devalue, stay the same or appreciate is the interesting part. Key word: overall. Anything GA or SA that is not in popular culture anymore is going to be hard to unload when the Boomers sell en mass. There are a lot of titles that sell now for nice prices that I suspect won't ever see these prices again. The market is going to go away.

 

The variant phenomenon we see with modern titles will shake out. We'll see only variants for key issues hold their value. Everything else will resort to similar prices with the regular editions. It already happens now, and will only get more pronounced as the "sizzle" of a variant fades to oblivion.

 

That said, Batman, Spiderman will always hold their value and early issues will slowly appreciate because there's only so many out there. The "new" hot characters will come and go. Some may stick and who knows maybe meet the popularity of some of the bigger characters. Who will be the long-lasting characters from today's popular ones? No idea. The kids today love the anti-hero: Deadpool, HQ, GOTG.

 

Some classic characters are already shifting in popularity of course. X-Men used to be the gold standard. Now its the Avengers. That has as much to do with Marvel's economics as real popularity though.

 

I'm rambling now but my point is that comic collecting will carry on. Just don't bank on your particular book or character being a long-haul one.

[lizards2]

 

I'd put forth the idea that prices are increasing because keys are being hoarded by people in the know. When that group starts to liquidate their collection, all these hoards will be out on the market. A few people will want to keep those books, a few people will be smart and try to hide those books to maintain the market, but everyone else will be looking to flip. Do you still want to be investing when that happens?

 

I believe this is somewhat killing part of the market. If dealers have 10 x Amazing Fantasy 15 at outrageous prices, then the Spider-Man collector can no longer complete his collection, and might as well give up and sell it all.

 

I can't wait until the market drops out on some of this stuff, and it becomes affordable to the collector again. And those hoarders can suck it.

 

[Mercury Man]

There is that "I" word again.

 

I think Gold/Silver Age books will always do well, particularly those that have superheroes and have stood the test of time (Superman, Batman, Captain America, Spiderman etc.). The superhero genre has never been hotter with Hollywood churning out movies. This has brought a whole new interest and group of people who probably weren't into comics, into the fold. Will old Action Comics or Batman ever go down- highly unlikely. You may see other Gold and Silver Age books lose steam- War comics, Romance, Westerns, but quite frankly, those books are a smaller market unto themselves. Most people at tables (not all, but most) at conventions are into the superhero stuff.

 

That being said- What of this new stuff? These 50:1 dealer incentive variants, this NYX, first appearance of X-23, these new names/genders/races replacing the old heroes we grew up with. Will this stuff hold 20-30 years from now? I doubt it. These are short term gimmicks, there is no shortage high grade comics, as they are immediately encapsulated in plastic, there is not much history for people to latch onto, and when the new people get bored and leave the hobby they briefly jumped into (and they will) the rest of us will still be here with the glut.

 

Investment is a tricky word. Is Action Comics #1 and Investment- yes. Is NYX #3 and investment- no, more like speculation. And that is what sucker punched the hobby in the 1990's.