The OFFICIAL "This week in your ILLUSTRATION collection?" 1 1

[vodou]

9 hours ago, Hekla said:

The HA illustration auctions seem to be down in general (with a few exceptions) the last few cycles. I feel like there’s more bang-for-your-buck for quality illustration art vs. comic art.

I would tend to agree. As long as you're planning on hanging onto the stuff for a long time, possibly the rest of your life "at your bid". Maybe the category really takes off in the future, who can tell for sure, but I've also seen once hot categories languish for -literally- many, many decades before interest perked up again. $4k may just be right for now. And for 2042 also, assuming continuation of the relatively tame USD inflation we've all gotten used to since 1982. This really doesn't matter if you bought it for you and will extract much more joy from owning it against the pain it took for you to earn/raise $4k! (and only you know how that equation works) But it's a different matter if you're a speculator or money manager looking for undervalued/ignored blue chips to put money to work in...that may not be broad illustration now or for a long time especially if other more robust opportunities are ignored while your money is on the sidelines doing "nothing" nominally and probably losing value inflation adjusted. Sort of like...exchange deliverable silver bullion (and a hundred other similarly chart shaped examples). That dip (early 2009) if bought, soon (2010-2012) looked like a winning lottery ticket but now...not. Draw your own conclusions re: buy 'n hold. I suspect your Sanjulian  would have a similar shaped chart 1985 to 2018.

[artdealer]

12 hours ago, Bronty said:

what did something like that cost back then Mitch?

The price was at least $2500 if not more. I might have a copy of my catalog that had the painting for sale.

[Bronty]

THank you

[vodou]

2 hours ago, artdealer said:

The price was at least $2500 if not more. I might have a copy of my catalog that had the painting for sale.

That's a shtlode of $40 Romita ASM pages right there

[Bronty]

Or Pollard, or Andru, or Kirby or... well.... pretty much anything Marvel and superhero!

I think part of what has to be considered there is that product illustrations in general (comic art being pretty well the exception) tanked when the greater illustration market went digital circa 1995.     Lots of people used to making good livings were suddenly out of jobs... the whole scene dead as a doornail overnight.  I was buying stuff 10 years ago that would have cost me 5x as much 15 years before that.     

IMO that likely plays into past prices as artists of that kind of material (not Sanjulian really.... but illustrators disconnected from comics, which someone like Sanjulian both was and wasn't) would have been a lot more likely to part with their holdings at a reasonable cost after the industry crated than before.    At least that was my experience as a buyer - artists that when I sought them out weren't doing nearly as well as before, and were happy to sell as a result.  Win win in a way, but also a little sad.

And now that those illustrations have aged out another 23 years since 1995 and are all 25+ years old, its starting becoming interesting material again depending on subject matter,  etc.

So... this crater and bounce back wasn't Sanjulian's experience (or Boris', or anyone kind of connected to comics like that...) but at the same time IMO it would likely have been a drag on the prices realized for all of these guys.    This Sanjulian result aside, I think we are starting to see solid prices now for material with good subject matter from the 1970s-1990s wave of illustrators.     (And as we talked about, a random Heavy Metal cover maybe isn't the same pull subject matter wise that it used to be).

Because Heritage's "Illustration" segment is so heavy on material from say 1940-1960, I think some people equate "Illustration" with 1950s material, particularly pin-up, when its really so much broader than that.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Bronty

[Bronty]

Yep, exactly...  I think those markets haven't been big enough for heritage to bother with... but its getting to the point where it could really make sense and potentially benefit both the market and the house in the long term. 

Maybe they need somebody a little younger on the inside to lead the charge on listing that type of material. 

Edited April 25, 2018 by Bronty

[Bronty]

17 minutes ago, Pete Marino said:

I feel like it's going to take a couple of people getting scammed on eBay for them to realize that there's a lot of value in having a real 3rd party auction house handle the sale vs DIY / wild west eBay.

You know what its going to take?   Seeing a formerly 20k piece go for 60k on heritage.     They need to see the $$$.    Right now they figure they can sell on a facebook group for zero fees (and they can).     Their focus is on cost minimization and I think they are generally ignorant to what a place like heritage can do for the hammer price, even after their fees.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Bronty

[vodou]

7 minutes ago, Bronty said:

You know what its going to take?   Seeing a formerly 20k piece go for 60k on heritage.     They need to see the $$$.    Right now they figure they can sell on a facebook group for zero fees (and they can).     Their focus is on cost minimization and I think they are generally ignorant to what a place like heritage can do for the hammer price, even after their fees.

This assuming the buyers show up. Why would they? It won't be because HA already has a robust mailing list of established and qualified bidders in that space. That's always the risk of being the first consignor in a new category especially at no reserve. But reserve not met...that's a real flat note too. With some amusement I'm noting that HA is gradually shifting into so-called contemporary street art - about twenty years after Banksy first started get exposure! Maybe Phillips or another similar contemporary fine art venue might 'wake' HA up to the potential when they see somebody else stealing their thunder?

[Bronty]

20 minutes ago, vodou said:

This assuming the buyers show up. Why would they? It won't be because HA already has a robust mailing list of established and qualified bidders in that space. That's always the risk of being the first consignor in a new category especially at no reserve. But reserve not met...that's a real flat note too. With some amusement I'm noting that HA is gradually shifting into so-called contemporary street art - about twenty years after Banksy first started get exposure! Maybe Phillips or another similar contemporary fine art venue might 'wake' HA up to the potential when they see somebody else stealing their thunder?

There's definitely a chicken and egg element there in terms of getting buyers and sellers to show up and that's what I'm getting at when I say that it would help them to have someone younger and a little more plugged in to that kind of scene.   I think there would be some crossover from people already on Heritage's list, but there are surely a lot of people in that space not on their list at present too, so point taken.      But IMO they wouldn't be starting from zero - there is some crossover.     I'm usually the first to discount the value of crossover, but I think there is some here.   They would obviously have to spend some time building on it. 

To expand on that though, I think the buyers show up if there's quality material.   Since as Pete said the market is underserved in this space, news is going to spread pretty quickly.    Its not like there are presently other houses serving their needs.     So, in HA's shoes, if I was considering this segment I'd focus on consignments, consignments, consignments.    

Edited April 25, 2018 by Bronty

[vodou]

1 hour ago, Bronty said:

So, in HA's shoes, if I was considering this segment I'd focus on consignments, consignments, consignments.    

Is there enough material out there to support creating a weekly Sunday style auction first and then expanding into a Signature event? Asking because whatever the 'price' to HA for a live event, that would be the number, the hurdle they need to feel comfortable overcoming before their risk takes second chair to reward. Building up with less out of pocket, save amortization of already spent tech investment, could be the pitch an outsider could make. But only if there are enough consignments. I wouldn't be the one to know that.

Expanding is always nice but never at the expense of core businesses already doing very well. And I think HA core (coins/currency, comics/comic art) are doing just fine, stuff we're talking about here, MTG but also other further out stuff...it's a stretch for sure. HA is currently going the other direction, spreading out geographically in known categories, not so much creating new categories.

[Bronty]

33 minutes ago, vodou said:

Is there enough material out there to support creating a weekly Sunday style auction first and then expanding into a Signature event?

Weekly would be madness.    I think that's the exact opposite of what you'd want.   More of the model the animation art falls into, where you have one auction every six months.    Maybe one a year to start. 

 

[vodou]

26 minutes ago, Bronty said:

Weekly would be madness.    I think that's the exact opposite of what you'd want.   More of the model the animation art falls into, where you have one auction every six months.    Maybe one a year to start. 

 

So you want a space that costs money, catering, and a licensed auctioneer, support staff taking phone calls, keeping the book, security, all that? That's some overhead, just to shave off 25% if reserves are met. For a category that they probably have no faith in or even understand? Good luck!

[Bronty]

19 minutes ago, vodou said:

So you want a space that costs money, catering, and a licensed auctioneer, support staff taking phone calls, keeping the book, security, all that? That's some overhead, just to shave off 25% if reserves are met. For a category that they probably have no faith in or even understand? Good luck!

I didn't mean to sound critical of your thought.    Weekly "style" (internet only, none of those expensive extras you refer to ) would make sense and I think that's the angle you're coming from.

A weekly frequency, given the material, would not.    You'd have to draw in the mass printed material along with the OA for a more regular frequency to make sense.

If you kept it to the OA only, the way the animation segment is, you'd have to have low frequency (whatever cost/extras model you go with).

If you draw in the mass produced stuff, the way the comics and comic OA segment is, you can have greater frequency (again regardless of whatever cost/extras model you go with).

 

Edited April 25, 2018 by Bronty

[vodou]

2 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I didn't mean to sound critical of your thought.    Weekly "style" (internet only, none of those expensive extras you refer to ) would make sense.

A weekly frequency, given the material, would not.    You'd have to draw in the mass printed material along with the OA for a more regular frequency to make sense.

 

Oh I know, that's what I figured would be the crux of the issue: there isn't enough material to build out, not for HA. eBay is perfect for this, likewise FB and other pop-up-shop sales venues. I think, because I've pondered this myself at some length and it would be instructive to others, that before we think about how much more we can make we should think about how much more the other guy will make. And if that guy isn't making much or anything, then...no honey, no flies.

[Bronty]

21 minutes ago, vodou said:

there isn't enough material to build out, not for HA.

Before we assume that, I don't even know what we are talking about?   MTG art?  Broader?

This discussion started off with Pete saying there's a whole gamut of illustration from that 70s - 90s timeframe in the 4-5 figure price points that really doesn't get served anywhere.    

He's not wrong.   Whether its worth Heritage's time probably boils down to whether they want the market share.    They aren't going to make a ton of money from it relative to their other segments until it develops further.     What the point at which it becomes worth their time is, only they can say, but if we look at their animation art its only about $2m/yr in sales.

That being said.    Do you even need a new segment?    You already have an "Illustration" segment.    Who's to say you can't simply have a 1960s and prior sale and a 1970s and later sale?    Or whatever way you want to slice it up?   Date subject matter whatever?     Or maybe you just have a session here and there within the Illustration sale?     (very little incremental cost to doing that.. you're already holding an auction, you're already creating a catalog).

I don't know but there are ways to skin this cat if they care to skin it.

Edited April 25, 2018 by Bronty

[vodou]

What's the illustration art that isn't being served? I was under the impression we were only talking about MTG and maybe similar CCG art. Of course you and I know there are lots of other types that are not being handled by HA, but my comments were specific to that. "Other" illustration from pre-1990s (pre-CCG), what of those couldn't/wouldn't be included in illustration or tossed in comics Sunday? I think most/all of it already is or would be if presented as their consignment staff.

The problem is: illustration today often sells for less than it was being priced at in the 1980s. There's no heat. Where's that heat going to come from? I'm not seeing it. I'm seeing that chart I posted above and no hope in sight, except buy what you love for what you can spend and consider it all "sunk cost". MTG/CCG...a different matter, and my comments above pertain specifically to that.

[Bronty]

That's the new stuff yes, and there's also the more vintage, 80s 90s etc.   

I guess the overall point is that comic OA is available on not one but what... five (?) auction houses?     HA, comic connect, CLINK, pedigree, Hake's at a minimum?

The other stuff being discussed here isn't being targeted by a single one of those five... just the odd scattershot listing.    

Edited April 26, 2018 by Bronty

[Pete Marino]

Yup, I agree with you Bronty, there is a lot of stuff out there.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Pete Marino

[cstojano]

I think we are one banker away from the possibility of 6 figure classic DnD artwork (maybe we are already there, I don't even know where to read/look). If I had the money and the original art for some of Elmore's key pieces came to market I would swing for the "will be buried with it" fences. Classic mini box artwork also seems completely unexplored. I know the green box art for the Heritage Dungeon Dwellers line was thrown out, the white box artwork is locked up. Dark Tower artwork would be amazing. 

[vodou]

54 minutes ago, Bronty said:

That's the new stuff yes, and there's also the more vintage, 80s 90s etc.   

I guess the overall point is that comic OA is available on not one but what... five (?) auction houses?     HA, comic connect, CLINK, pedigree, Hake's at a minimum?

The other stuff being discussed here isn't being targeted by a single one of those five... just the odd scattershot listing.    

All "what...five" of those Houses also do brisk business in comics, most importantly they did so first. Before the art. The "risk" of art was as an extension of an already robust market for comics (on their own platforms mind you). Shoot Comic Connect still hasn't, imo, committed to art even! If you can't get them to sell cards and paraphernalia, and please why would they ever try to wring $100 out of an expansion pack, then...the art? Ya'll should start thinking in decades here for this to come to pass. Or all the comics guys just die off and the card guys take their place - with their wallets open too. The artists getting four-five figures (or whatever), would they net out with more at a Big House (I don't think so) or is this sort of mental masturbation for how the fmv of your own collections might be enhanced by the profile bump? Goes back to thinking of the other guy's bottom line before your own. I don't know about other people talking about this, but I can easily put myself in the position of certain categories I've cornered for very cheap (imo) that would really get fmv-enhancement if HA CLink or even Hake's started moving the material regularly, especially if it got a front cover slot (oh, baby!) but...are we just assuming most collectors are lemmings and if you put something on the front cover of a catalog, it will get six figures in bids? Really? I know perception is reality but without any supporting comps...the whole thing is a fail right at the get go and only gets colder as you keep at it. Unless we're suggesting somebody (but never ever "us") starts seeding the market with material they're willing to take less than fmv for just to jumpstart the market? Well that only happens when the distribution is so huge you can feed into that for a very long time and still average out way up on top. Anybody in that position? Anybody that is (???) willing to step up and take the negative fmv hits for the first two years - instead of selling on FB or other ez fmv venues to an already "cash in hand" dedicated audience? Why are we tryin to fit the new model into the old model, and so badly? Are we the old crusties that can't adapt? Just some questions I ask myself...often.