rotembk Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Maybe I'm just being dense, but how can anyone answer the question "how much it would sell for" (not "how much you think it's worth") with "less than $100,000" when you have a water dweller announce in another thread that he was willing to pay that price already three years ago? Assuming ours is a sufficiently sophisticated market factoring in all publicly available information, wouldn't $100,000 be the starting bid for all intents and purposes? Personally, I have no expertise (or interest) in the HQ OA market, I'm just curious about people's working assumptions in approaching this question. SquareChaos and Twanj 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 28 minutes ago, SquareChaos said: Yeah I mean, say what you want about Harley, but at least her presence in the comic universe is very strong. NYX has never yet managed to carry a book. But, I know, that isn't what it's about anymore. All 3 characters' on that cover are going to be more recognizable in the near future with GCS and Joss Whedon's apparent Batgirl movie. Will it impact the cover art? Probably, but how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquareChaos Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Just now, Bird said: All 3 characters' on that cover are going to be more recognizable in the near future with GCS and Joss Whedon's apparent Batgirl movie. Will it impact the cover art? Probably, but how much? Not sure I follow, maybe I wasn't clear. What I was trying to say is X-23 has not even managed to carry a titular comic book. I know there is supposedly some talk about X-23 stand alone films in the future, and I'm referencing that when I say I know the character's comic standing isn't what the dollar prices are about anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 1 minute ago, SquareChaos said: Not sure I follow, maybe I wasn't clear. What I was trying to say is X-23 has not even managed to carry a titular comic book. I know there is supposedly some talk about X-23 stand alone films in the future, and I'm referencing that when I say I know the character's comic standing isn't what the dollar prices are about anymore. Nope, I was the one being unclear! I meant the 3 characters on the BA12. I think the comics matter but agree that they are certainly not the only factor. X-23 movies are unrealistic if they want to use the same actress. With 2-3 years between movies her appearance will change drastically but I guess they could make it work (look at Carl in TWD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquareChaos Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Just now, Bird said: Nope, I was the one being unclear! I meant the 3 characters on the BA12. I think the comics matter but agree that they are certainly not the only factor. X-23 movies are unrealistic if they want to use the same actress. With 2-3 years between movies her appearance will change drastically but I guess they could make it work (look at Carl in TWD). Ah, I see. And we don't even really know if the young actress that played Laura in Logan has a wide range of acting abilities. She certainly proved to be a fine physical actress, but those skills don't always translate to dialog. And that doesn't even really go into the fact that movie Laura doesn't share much with the comic version's backstory other than a connection to Wolverine and a code name. I've always been dubious about the possibility of supporting characters in comic book movies suddenly showing up as first tier characters, so when I combine all of these things and then evaluate the NYX 3 artwork purely aesthetically, nothing really adds up. I think that is where many people are with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronty Posted May 19, 2017 Author Share Posted May 19, 2017 24 minutes ago, rotembk said: Maybe I'm just being dense, but how can anyone answer the question "how much it would sell for" (not "how much you think it's worth") with "less than $100,000" when you have a water dweller announce in another thread that he was willing to pay that price already three years ago? Assuming ours is a sufficiently sophisticated market factoring in all publicly available information, wouldn't $100,000 be the starting bid for all intents and purposes? Personally, I have no expertise (or interest) in the HQ OA market, I'm just curious about people's working assumptions in approaching this question. Precisely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SquareChaos said: Ah, I see. And we don't even really know if the young actress that played Laura in Logan has a wide range of acting abilities. She certainly proved to be a fine physical actress, but those skills don't always translate to dialog. And that doesn't even really go into the fact that movie Laura doesn't share much with the comic version's backstory other than a connection to Wolverine and a code name. I've always been dubious about the possibility of supporting characters in comic book movies suddenly showing up as first tier characters, so when I combine all of these things and then evaluate the NYX 3 artwork purely aesthetically, nothing really adds up. I think that is where many people are with this. Yes, but look at the AF15 threads here on the boards...those guys are knowledgeable about that book for sure but all bets are off now. I think my main point is that most or all of the information appears to be no longer available to those "in the know" as evidenced by the guessing about who and why this happened for NYX3. I am reminded of a comment a professor made to class, that Freud was likely the last human being to know all that there was to know, but information grew at such an astounding rate that someone like that is no longer possible. We may have entered a different "step" and may no longer be on the same continuum as we were before. I think that there may have been a sample bias as well as the art was picked for comment here thinking it was one thing and the bidders clearly thought that it was something else, bigger and better. Edited May 19, 2017 by Bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquareChaos Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bird said: Yes, but look at the AF15 threads here on the boards...those guys are knowledgeable about that book for sure but all bets are off now. I think my main point is that most or all of the information appears to be no longer available to those "in the know" as evidenced by the guessing about who and why this happened for NYX3. I am reminded of a comment a professor made to class, that Freud was likely the last human being to know all that there was to know, but information grew at such an astounding rate that someone like that is no longer possible. We may have entered a different "step" and may no longer be on the same continuum as we were before. I think that there may have been a sample bias as well as the art was picked for comment here thinking it was one thing and the bidders clearly thought that it was something else, bigger and better. All valid points. But it is still possible that this was just a really interesting, but overall relatively meaningless, fluke. I'm not sure how or when we'll know that, maybe if the buyer comes forward and is willing to talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 43 minutes ago, rotembk said: Maybe I'm just being dense, but how can anyone answer the question "how much it would sell for" (not "how much you think it's worth") with "less than $100,000" when you have a water dweller announce in another thread that he was willing to pay that price already three years ago? Assuming ours is a sufficiently sophisticated market factoring in all publicly available information, wouldn't $100,000 be the starting bid for all intents and purposes? Personally, I have no expertise (or interest) in the HQ OA market, I'm just curious about people's working assumptions in approaching this question. That assumes that someone would bid him up to $100K and risk getting stuck with a $99,000 Heritage bill if he has a change of heart. It takes two to tango... Also, what one was willing to pay 3 years ago does not necessarily set a floor on what one would be willing to pay today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotembk Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, delekkerste said: That assumes that someone would bid him up to $100K and risk getting stuck with a $99,000 Heritage bill if he has a change of heart. It takes two to tango... Also, what one was willing to pay 3 years ago does not necessarily set a floor on what one would be willing to pay today! Sure, anything can happen (one might sprain their mouse-clicking-finger a second before the lot comes up for auction while being in a zero cell reception area), but he basically used you to announce to the world "I'm a buyer at $100,000; come at me, bro". And my sense from what I hear is that the guy can be taken at face value (or that's the perception within this community which, for these purposes, should have the same effect). Finally, the discussion these last several weeks clearly show there's more than one potential tango partner and they have enough time to digest this data point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 (edited) If BA12 is a $200K+ cover, or even a $160K cover, how much is NM98? Or TWD 1? Because surely either of those dwarfs BA12 in every conceivable category. And yet I doubt many think of those as being $200K, let alone much higher than that, types of items. Or, at least not before yesterday... It's one thing for a slightly younger generation of collectors to value more Modern pieces higher than some of the older, classic material. But, when it comes down to it, I don't see any of them writing $200K+ checks to Heritage for something like BA12. Even now, it's a late 40-something usual suspect with the highest theoretical public bid. And, just as he wasn't willing to go to 72K for NYX 3, I don't think you'll get him up to double that amount for BA12. Heck, he could probably get the first Gwen Stacy and Harry Osborn Ditko page for that amount...or maybe even the first Blade cover. Edited May 20, 2017 by delekkerste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vodou Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 25 minutes ago, delekkerste said: ...the first Gwen Stacy and Harry Osborn Ditko page for that amount...or maybe even the first Blade cover. Lotta work typing that Gene? Takes even longer to explain to somebody at the periphery of the hobby. Versus the first MJ Ditko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 34 minutes ago, vodou said: Lotta work typing that Gene? Takes even longer to explain to somebody at the periphery of the hobby. Versus the first MJ Ditko I have no idea what you're talking about. I think there needs to be a Google Translate page for "vodou"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mighty Hal Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 7 hours ago, NinjaSealed said: $140-160 range About twice NYX 3 cover and right around the ASM 300 cover seems right to me. You pretty much nailed the NYX 3 cover, so I think I'll go with your call. For the group who believes BA 12 has to go for under $100k despite an open offer at that price...is there any reason an auction house can't start the bidding at $100,000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flambit Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 My guess is just over 100k. She's almost the Wolverine of the DC universe now.... soon it will be up there in the 657k page range along with the last Hulk 181 page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 (edited) 38 minutes ago, Hal Turner said: You pretty much nailed the NYX 3 cover, so I think I'll go with your call. For the group who believes BA 12 has to go for under $100k despite an open offer at that price...is there any reason an auction house can't start the bidding at $100,000? The poll was how would BA 12 do at Heritage, and they start all their comic auctions at $1. They could put a $100K reserve on it, though they tend to discourage the practice. Also, if someone thinks a piece will go RNM without their bid, it's a common tactic to see if it passes and try to negotiate a lower price post-auction. Also, we aren't sure there is an open offer at that price. All that was said is that he was interested in the piece at that level 3 years ago and to let him know if I came across it. No firm commitment on anyone's part and no guarantee that someone else would be willing to bid him up to 100K if the piece turned up in an HA auction. Edited May 20, 2017 by delekkerste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Flambit said: My guess is just over 100k. She's almost the Wolverine of the DC universe now.... soon it will be up there in the 657k page range along with the last Hulk 181 page I doubt that ten people in my apartment building (out of around 250) could identify X-23 by name. Probably closer to zero if you just showed them the NYX 3 cover; maybe a few if you showed them a still from the Logan movie. Harley probably gets more recognition, but nowhere near what some people think. Just because she's popular in a certain subculture doesn't mean that the general public is familiar with her to the point where they can identify her by name like Batman or Spidey or Wolverine (and even Wolverine doesn't have the name recognition of Superman, Wonder Woman, the Hulk, etc.) Just because she was in a movie doesn't mean that everyone saw the film or that they cared enough to remember her name (X-23 too for that matter) after the credits rolled, especially since the movies in question were Logan and Suicide Squad, respectively, not X-23 and Harley Quinn. I bet that most of the major Walking Dead characters have far more name recognition among the public given their consistent and persistent exposure to them (practically unavoidable the past 6 1/2 years). Similarly, Deadpool had a movie that was actually called Deadpool where he got top billing. Many, many more people in the general public will recognize Deadpool than Harley Quinn, even if they may be similarly popular among our niche hobby. Very few people outside of our world, even the people who saw Logan, will be able to recall the name of X-23 at this point in time. My wife wouldn't know X-23 from WD-40, and I'd bet none of my immediate neighbors would either. Sure, if she gets her own movie, that would change. But people are deluding themselves that her appeal extends much beyond our hobby at the present time just because she had a supporting role in the Logan film. Seriously, BFD. Edited May 20, 2017 by delekkerste SquareChaos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnkurJ Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 A page from the issue without Harley in it sold for around $10k earlier this year. So the cover I would imagine be at least 100k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delekkerste Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, AnkurJ said: A page from the issue without Harley in it sold for around $10k earlier this year. So the cover I would imagine be at least 100k. I've seen people overpay for what's available, but it doesn't necessarily extrapolate to the better examples when they turn up later. In any case, you have a link to the BA 12 page sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaSealed Posted May 20, 2017 Share Posted May 20, 2017 There was also this half stat page from mad love that sold for $8365 in 2015. https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/bruce-timm-batman-adventures-mad-love-1-page-10-harley-quinn-original-art-dc-1994-total-2-items-/a/7152-92255.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515 And this page from the HW one shot may be interesting: http://comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAuctions%2Fsearch.asp%3FFocusedOnly%3D1%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3Dharley%26ItemType%3DCA%23Item_1169542&id=1169542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
