Those "plentiful" key issues... 1 1

[kav]

2 minutes ago, AnthonyTheAbyss said:

I blame Ebay's introduction of B.I.N...it skews the supply & demand numbers.

wait almost everything bought or sold is buy it now.  Hamburgers, cars etc.

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

10 minutes ago, kav said:

wait almost everything bought or sold is buy it now.  Hamburgers, cars etc.

Hahaha I'd like to bid on a Big Mac instead of paying $2.50.

 

If you look at the following situation as an example (ASM #300)...

- For over a year very few were available for auction on Ebay

- Plenty of BIN at $1K+

- When one did show up for auction is usually sold for around $950 (just slightly below the BIN)

- The BIN artificially inflated the price...most people that wanted the book will place a $999 bid (instead of the BIN)

- If there were auctions only (no BIN) it would reflect a true supply and demand

- As BIN's move up in price in pulls up the actions final sale price (assuming there's a lot of BIN and very few auctions available)

Edited August 14, 2017 by AnthonyTheAbyss

[kav]

3 minutes ago, AnthonyTheAbyss said:

Hahaha I'd like to bid on a Big Mac instead of paying $2.50.

damn I wish Big Max were $2.50 theyre like $5 now.

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

Just now, kav said:

damn I wish Big Max were $2.50 theyre like $5 now.

that's the meal (big mac, medium fries, and a medium drink)

[kav]

1 minute ago, AnthonyTheAbyss said:

that's the meal (big mac, medium fries, and a medium drink)

No thats $5.79

[kav]

The Big Mac is actually $3.99.  I exagerrated for effect.  Of course depending on location, price will flunctuate.  In Swisserland they run $6.35.  Of course in Venzuela they only costing 0.67 cents.

[CKB]

The analogy you guys are looking for is ticket sales/prices.

If you have a show that doesn't sell out, or more importantly isn't EXPECTED to sell out, they stay at face value or below.

If you have a show that is expected to sell out, outfits who are resellers will compete for the supply of tickets, raising the aftermarket prices, and possibly causing the sellout in the first place.  They expect to sell the supply they get at a higher price then they buy.

Dealers play this game with mega keys, in the roll of the ticket reseller, expecting that they will be able to get more than they paid.  This is why they always have copies available.  They didn't get them for free, they had a price of entry as well, and are confident that if they hold their supply they will get their price.

 

[kav]

3 minutes ago, CKB said:

The analogy you guys are looking for is ticket sales/prices.

If you have a show that doesn't sell out, or more importantly isn't EXPECTED to sell out, they stay at face value or below.

If you have a show that is expected to sell out, outfits who are resellers will compete for the supply of tickets, raising the aftermarket prices, and possibly causing the sellout in the first place.  They expect to sell the supply they get at a higher price then they buy.

Dealers play this game with mega keys, in the roll of the ticket reseller, expecting that they will be able to get more than they paid.  This is why they always have copies available.  They didn't get them for free, they had a price of entry as well, and are confident that if they hold their supply they will get their price.

 

Great analigy

[90sChild]

I dont have a solution to the problem but I can tell you what I observed in as little time as the past year.  I had interest in buying ASM #300 in CGC 9.6 and was watching them sell left and right for $350-375 towards the end of last year.  The occasional buy it now would grab $400 but the auction style would go for a bit less as they were constantly ending at multiple times throughout the day.  Being the patient bidder I am, I always tried to snag one at the sub-$360 price range.  I came real close but always was second highest bid multiple times.  If I had just bid $375 everytime I'd probably be sitting on multiple copies right now, but I stayed conservative with my bids.  So what is it that kept them selling in such a tight range between $350-$400? Everyone felt real comfortable that the price should be exactly that, and nobody wanted to sell it for less and nobody wanted to buy it for more.  It was the "safe zone" that people were reassured is exactly where they needed it to be to feel safe buying or selling.  

 

Then the movie news for venom hits and we are seeing them all sell now in the $600-750 price range.  A far more volatile zone.  There is even a buy it now sold at 900 on ebay.  So where did all these willing parties come from that suddenly changed what price zone they think is safe?  I'm not sure honestly.  Does it consist more of collectors or more of flippers?  If I had to guess, I would say it is more flippers than collectors because I do not believe the number of people entering our hobby have decided they are so much more willing now to spend over $600 when just a few months ago nobody wanted to pay over $400.  So all these people pushing the boundaries on what is an acceptible price are flippers and speculators.  I don't think it can be new hobbists.

I believe that most collectors will buy ONE copy at a price they can tolerate, then sit and hold for a while.  The amount of collectors just stashing multiple copies away are more speculators that still think of themselves as collectors.  Flippers and speculators drive the prices further and further based on how much they think it is safe to buy in that range.  $600 seems to be the new bottom with almost no sales dropping below that.  With so many copies selling daily, we see the new bottom line to invest.  

I don't own a copy of this and probably never will.  I imagine there are many who feel the same as I do, but the people who do decide $600+ is still palatable will be the people who think maybe one day they can get $800 for it.  Then the cycle continues.  The census numbers in 9.6/9.8 compared to the selling prices still boggles my mind today.  

[ADAMANTIUM]

All that plus one on ASM 300. I kept trying to find a nice raw that was under 200. And I didn't want to pay more and they didn't want to sell for Less. Ended up biting the bullet and ended up with an 8.0. If only I hadn't been stingy

[Gotham Kid]

Venom movie, huh? I'm guessing those 9.9s will soon come out of the woodwork. Can't recall the last time I saw one.

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

3 hours ago, valiantman said:

Are any of those near the GPA average, or are they GPA + X%.  Because if they're GPA + X%, then we only know the X% is too high.

I agree, but doesn't that mean supply is greater than the demand?  If not, how many unsold copies would we need to see on ebay to indicate supply is greater than demand?

Actually, regardless of the GPA average, whenever I see a book in a BIN auction format as opposed to a true open auction format, I always assume the supply is greater than the demand at that particular price point. 

Especially if the book has been sitting there for an extended period of time. 

Edited August 15, 2017 by lou_fine

[Gatsby77]

6 hours ago, valiantman said:

Interesting question... 

If I understand your scenario, Book #1 is high demand high supply and Book #2 is high demand low supply.  Given those two scenarios it's hard to see how Book #2 isn't the best bet.

What I think I'm saying, though is this:

Book #1 is high supply much higher demand (Silver/Bronze Age ultra-key that costs $5,000+ to obtain)

Book #2 is low supply and high demand (Golden Age key that costs $50,000+ to obtain)

Anytime demand significantly beats supply (both Book #1 and Book #2), I think "plentiful" supply becomes the wrong focal point for the discussion.

The problem here with book # 2s  can be seen with select Golden Age books. That at a higher price point they have a much thinner market (people able & wiilling to afford them) -- so the prices actually become more volatile simply because they don't trade as frequently.

If a book # 2 only trades once every two years or so in a given grade , and yet bidders still use "last sale" prices on GPA as a price anchor, the book can miss out on normal expected price increases simply because of lack of sales volume to establish a price.

This is especially true if 1-2 prospective bidders drop out.

Silver Age Marvels, by comparison -- are very easy to value because there's enough trading volume to set an accurate price -- they are more liquid than some older -- and far rarer -- counterparts.

Example:

All-American Comics # 17, CGC 6.0.

Second appearance of the Green Lantern - decent Golden Age book. GPA shows the _exact same copy_ sold in Feb. 2007 for $3,650, then again in Dec. 2016 for $5,000. That's a mere 37% increase over more than 9.5 years.

That's about 3.5% per year. 

With more sales volume (say, 1-2 copies sold per year) I argue the book would have had much greater appreciation and a far more established, "stable" price.

[lizards2]

2 hours ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

All that plus one on ASM 300. I kept trying to find a nice raw that was under 200. And I didn't want to pay more and they didn't want to sell for Less. Ended up biting the bullet and ended up with an 8.0. If only I hadn't been stingy

I'm thinking of TOS 50.  Would like a nice copy, and soon I will have one.  BINs at much less than the top are now going un-BINd.  Enough collectors just have to say no, and bide there time until the book returns to its true value.  That is basically going on right now.

I remember making what I thought was a realistic offer on a copy  here on the boards, only to be chastised by the owner on how unrealistic it was.  I wonder if it ever sold for the original asking...., or somewhere south of my offer.

[Readcomix]

What a great thread; so many points kicked off by a great a first post! I can't recall every point I wanted to chip in on!

In no particular order, with the eBay thing, fwiw I try to look at available vs sold listings at any given time when trying to decide about supply/demand of a book....its fluid, a snapshot in time, and today's available is tomorrow's sold.....some day, eventually....

As to the GA books, there is no guarantee that no one will want them when the 60-plus crowd sells, and there is nothing to say that six-figure buyers are not fans as well as investors. It's easy to think of oneself as a collector or flipper or speculator, but I suspect many of us exist as a hobbyist on a continuum....many folks on here (myself included) openly talk about selling to buy other books....I pick up books I know are a deal that are not in my collection sights if I feel I can turn it over again to improve my collection and acquire something else...

But I'm getting away from the original point; sorry....I always assume when high census hot keys are referred to as plentiful that people really mean that if the book cools it will be that much more sensitive to sudden volatility. Makes sense, but taken to its logical conclusion the implication is the sweet spot is a character as popular as wolverine with a first appearance as uncommon as HOS 92, as popular as Spidey but as uncommon as TTA27....but not so uncommon that it slides into obscurity like cool but affordable GA books .... Then my head hurts and I just accept that most collectible markets are volatile and thinly capitalized.

On a related note to VMan's initial post, with everyone saying lately of the Marvel Silver and other plentiful hot keys that the bubble has to burst, I'm not sure it bursts until the larger money-printing bubble bursts (then we have bigger problems, but that's another topic)....when I look at the cost of living, I think to myself if I sell some "overheated" $600 key (being arbitrary for the sake of discussion here) what am I going to buy with it? Two nights away, barely? Two weeks' groceries and s night of take-out? New brakes and rotors? Real expenses, to be sure, but hardly a lot of real world return on the sale of one's investment. In this context, the good stuff among comics (and I define it broadly) has room to run. 

[CBT]

What books have more supply than demand will only truly be tested when interest rates return to historical norms.  As long as money remains so cheap, prices will always be trending in one direction only.

When the rate is 5-8%, and dog chewed 1.5s are still moving up in price, it will be safe to say supply really doesnt meet demand.

[kav]

6 minutes ago, Readcomix said:

Two weeks' groceries

You spend $300 a week on groceries??? 

[Readcomix]

6 minutes ago, kav said:

You spend $300 a week on groceries??? 

Getting north of $250 anyway...kids....being people is getting pricey! 

I'm shocked myself on a weekly basis, and I do the shopping and am cheap, but somehow it adds up....with kids, I load up in the dairy aisle more than I would, and that's pricey, I guess. Lots of produce, but other than berries not much there that's expensive, generally. A little bit of cold cuts is $20-$25 (10%!) alone. 

 

[Readcomix]

18 minutes ago, CBT said:

What books have more supply than demand will only truly be tested when interest rates return to historical norms.  As long as money remains so cheap, prices will always be trending in one direction only.

When the rate is 5-8%, and dog chewed 1.5s are still moving up in price, it will be safe to say supply really doesnt meet demand.

That's what I'm getting at...'til then, I think folks will continue to be surprised that books they think cannot have legs left will continue to climb.

[kav]

4 minutes ago, Readcomix said:

Getting north of $250 anyway...kids....being people is getting pricey! 

I'm shocked myself on a weekly basis, and I do the shopping and am cheap, but somehow it adds up....with kids, I load up in the dairy aisle more than I would, and that's pricey, I guess. Lots of produce, but other than berries not much there that's expensive, generally. A little bit of cold cuts is $20-$25 (10%!) alone. 

 

I hear ya.  I try to keep mine grocery bill below $150 a month.  I make a lot of home made pizza which is cheap and good.  I'm a master at pizza crust now!