Those "plentiful" key issues... 1 1

[mackenzie999]

I've read this entire thread now (sorry boss) and while I have enjoyed it quite a bit, and probably learned a thing two, I feel it really is pretty simple.

If I wish to purchase an AF15 right now, this minute, I can. It would take me longer to buy a cup of coffee than to order an AF15. That tells me everything I need to know about its rarity.

Edited August 18, 2017 by Mackenzie999

[Lucky Baru]

On 8/16/2017 at 6:24 PM, kav said:

I first learned about the non value of diamonds when I was in a pawn shop and a lady came in to sell her one carat engagement ring and he offered her $50.  Wouldn't go a penny higher.  

I heard this is what happened later at that pawn shop.

 

Edited August 18, 2017 by Lucky Baru

[kav]

Just now, Lucky Baru said:

I heard that this happened later that night at that pawn shop.

 

She was flabbergasted that the $3000 valuable diamond wasn't worth squat.

[Readcomix]

23 hours ago, Hudson said:

Back on topic.

AF15 is simply awesome!  Not only do a "boat load" of collectors desire to own this book, I would hazard to guess that many of them would like to own multiple copies (thus adding further to "demand".

Is AF15 common?  I don't know.  Compared to what?  Compared to AC1, heck yeah it is "common".  Compared to many modern books, it would be considered "rare".  Compared to other silver age books made the same month; I have no clue.  It really does not matter.  The real question seems to be "FMV".

FMV is what a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller and what a wiling seller is willing to accept from a willing buyer, for the item in question.

With this in mind, I would contend that whether or not AF15 is "common" is not relevant.  What is relevant, is that current supply seems to outweigh current demand at the current price point.  I probably just lost a lot of "likes" with that sentence, but I believe it to be the truth, as seen by perhaps one of the best examples of a "free market"; eBay. 

There are currently 33 complete copies of AF15 on eBay that any willing buyer can purchase.  These  vary in condition and price, however, this is a general breakdown.

3 Copies for $100K or more

3 Copies for $50K - $99,999.99

7 Copies for $25K - $49,999.99

12 Copies for $15K - $24,999.99

8 Copies for $7,900 - $14,999.99

That is 33 complete copies readily available to anyone that wants them. 

There are also 3 coverless copies that can be had for under $5K

If these prices were FMV (in other words where supply meets demand), then the number of available copies would be zero.

In conclusion, AF15 is awesome and highly desirable. but in the free market world of eBay, the supply of AF15(s) clearly outweighs the current demand.

This is NOT to say there are NOT nearly countless people who would like to own a copy of AF15 IF the price were lower, however, at the price being what it is, those people do not seem to REALLY be in the market.

I say this with all respect to AF15, Spider-Man, and collectors everywhere, so please do not stone me.

Why would we stone you? You nailed it. Current supply is outpaced by current demand. If Spidey's popularity tanks, maybe it slides sooner than say Tec 27 if Bats tanks, as demand loss catches up more quickly to the larger supply. I think only AC1 is somewhat immune,to this as, though supes' popularity has wand from its peak, the book is still the prime mover, the starting point. But if we are all going to fret over the fading popularity of Spidey, bats, wolverine, Deadpool etc we may as well all dump everything. (I'm exaggerating a bit for effect, sure.)

Heck, Marvel Comics 1 and All Star were even bigger deals in the past, so it's not impossible. But if I am going to worry about AF15, why am I buying any SA keys these days???

[WolverineX]

On 8/17/2017 at 0:22 PM, valiantman said:

Off-topic with the diamond discussions, but since I'm the original poster I guess it's allowed.

The diamond industry is scared of moissanite.  It's named after the guy who discovered it... Carbon and Silicon, microscopic, from a meteorite a hundreds years ago.  Moissanite doesn't exist on Earth in "jewelry size" so it's made in a lab.  (The horror!)  It really is Carbon (like a diamond) and Silicon (similar to Carbon chemically, heavier)... and the result of "jewelry size" is this: 

 

Needless to say, DeBeers can't monopolize this market... so they just pretend "fake diamonds" are all like CZ.  Buy a real diamond!  It's 10 times as expensive!  

(I borrowed the photo from another website, so ignore the sales pitch comments.  I did buy a 3rd generation moissanite recently and my wife loves it.  It's not a diamond, she knows it, it's a moissanite... and no conflicts in foreign countries were secretly in the mix either... blood diamonds need not apply.)

yes Moissy has gotten popular recently... diamonds are as rare as sand.  They are just advertise like crazy.    If you want to buy something, just stick with gold.   

Edited August 19, 2017 by Wolverinex

[SteppinRazor]

On 8/17/2017 at 6:11 PM, Hudson said:

Back on topic.

AF15 is simply awesome!  Not only do a "boat load" of collectors desire to own this book, I would hazard to guess that many of them would like to own multiple copies (thus adding further to "demand".

Is AF15 common?  I don't know.  Compared to what?  Compared to AC1, heck yeah it is "common".  Compared to many modern books, it would be considered "rare".  Compared to other silver age books made the same month; I have no clue.  It really does not matter.  The real question seems to be "FMV".

FMV is what a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller and what a wiling seller is willing to accept from a willing buyer, for the item in question.

With this in mind, I would contend that whether or not AF15 is "common" is not relevant.  What is relevant, is that current supply seems to outweigh current demand at the current price point.  I probably just lost a lot of "likes" with that sentence, but I believe it to be the truth, as seen by perhaps one of the best examples of a "free market"; eBay. 

There are currently 33 complete copies of AF15 on eBay that any willing buyer can purchase.  These  vary in condition and price, however, this is a general breakdown.

3 Copies for $100K or more

3 Copies for $50K - $99,999.99

7 Copies for $25K - $49,999.99

12 Copies for $15K - $24,999.99

8 Copies for $7,900 - $14,999.99

That is 33 complete copies readily available to anyone that wants them. 

There are also 3 coverless copies that can be had for under $5K

If these prices were FMV (in other words where supply meets demand), then the number of available copies would be zero.

In conclusion, AF15 is awesome and highly desirable. but in the free market world of eBay, the supply of AF15(s) clearly outweighs the current demand.

This is NOT to say there are NOT nearly countless people who would like to own a copy of AF15 IF the price were lower, however, at the price being what it is, those people do not seem to REALLY be in the market.

I say this with all respect to AF15, Spider-Man, and collectors everywhere, so please do not stone me.

Agree that it is not really relevant, but I would consider rarity to be relative to its contemporaries only, not to different eras of comics.  That would not be a useful comparison to make at all.

[ComicConnoisseur]

If we are going to talk rarity,than I wonder if the variant comic book market is the way to go forward?

The reason why I am bringing this up is because I did a little research on Ebay in that just about the majority of all modern comic books that have any significant value since 2007 are low print variant comic books. 

Seems to be a trend in other hobbies as well with all the valuable modern sportscards,action figures,statues,sneakers and video games that have come out since 2007 are limited edition low manufactured runs.

Seems also that they are all really more profitable short term than going the long-term slow approach with established keys of each hobby.

I was kind of shocked to see how stuff by Hot Toys and SideshowToys have risen in value.

Also Funko stuff is out of this world pricewise.

The best stuff might be the limited SDCC stuff given out at cons for investment

Seems to me these are the new growing markets,while the old I will hold it for 20 years and hope it rises in value is slowing down.

I wonder if these new limited variant markets will continue to be the new wave or end up like Franklin Mint and the Danbury Mint as manufactured collectibles after 20 years. My aunt has plenty of Norman Rockwell plates and Hummels that have lost most of their value. lol.

[rjrjr]

3 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

If we are going to talk rarity,than I wonder if the variant comic book market is the way to go forward?

The reason why I am bringing this up is because I did a little research on Ebay in that just about the majority of all modern comic books that have any significant value since 2007 are low print variant comic books. 

Seems to be a trend in other hobbies as well with all the valuable modern sportscards,action figures,statues,sneakers and video games that have come out since 2007 are limited edition low manufactured runs.

Seems also that they are all really more profitable short term than going the long-term slow approach with established keys of each hobby.

I was kind of shocked to see how stuff by Hot Toys and SideshowToys have risen in value.

Also Funko stuff is out of this world pricewise.

The best stuff might be the limited SDCC stuff given out at cons for investment

Seems to me these are the new growing markets,while the old I will hold it for 20 years and hope it rises in value is slowing down.

I wonder if these new limited variant markets will continue to be the new wave or end up like Franklin Mint and the Danbury Mint as manufactured collectibles after 20 years. My aunt has plenty of Norman Rockwell plates and Hummels that have lost most of their value. lol.

It is an interesting question and only time will tell.  I don't like the trend, but I understand why these publishers are doing it.  They learned they can milk more money from their hardcore fan base and this helps offset the loss in readership.  (One of Marvel's executives even said a few years back they'll keep raising prices, printing variants, and publishing events until the fans quit buying.  Based on current sales trends, that time may be coming.)  My personal opinion is this is short sided thinking on the part of the publishers; they are actually chasing away the types of collectors they really want, those who buy every issue of a title no matter what.  Marvel, for example, use to have these "Marvel zombies" as they use to be called but I'll wager there are very few of these people left in the hobby.  It doesn't surprise me we have seen a move towards "key only" collecting, very few people can afford to collect every issue of any title (including variants) anymore.  Instead, those who have been able to adjust their way of collecting or who do not remember a time when you could collect every issue of a title, seem to be okay with this trend because they just buy "keys".  IMHO, it is even worse, because very few of the variant issues are being read, but instead are just coveted for the cover.

What would be interesting to me would be to learn exactly how many comic readers are actual left who buy modern comics to read.  There are always discussions about modern cover art, but very few discussions about the content inside the comic, unless it is something that is negative like Captain America being a Nazi; I suspect most people participating in those discussions don't actually read the comics, but just want to express their displeasure at how comics have changed.

I'll use myself as an example, I buy as many variants of the Star Wars titles as I can afford, and that is usually every variant but the extreme ratio'd ones (1:100 or 1:200.)  So, I buy 3 or 4 different covers of the average Star Wars comic to get all the variants (for Darth Vader #1 that came out a few months back, there were 10+ variants), but I only read one copy.  If you consider this across the board, how many readers of these pamphlets are there really? 50% of the unit sales?  Maybe even less in some cases like the Darth Vader #1.

My personal opinion is there will always be someone who will spend the money and want these things (I'm one of them), but the number of these people will dwindle over time.  We are actually seeing this.  The publishers can get away with these ever increasingly difficult (i.e. expensive) variants as long as you have people willing to spend hundreds, if not thousands of dollars on a brand new comic.  But there will come a point where the finances of publishing the comics don't work anymore for the number of buyers left.  What do the publishers do then?

As for the value, there will always be someone who has the resources to pay.  I have no doubt about that after seeing people pay thousands of dollars for newly printed books.   The real question is, will you be one of those people who can afford to stick with the hobby long enough to care what the value of these things are worth?  Chances are most of us will drift away from the hobby, hanging onto the books we have, and if we return, we'll be disappointed with how few people are left wiling to buy these things we covet today.  I've seen that happen to many sports cards collectors.  They put pages of these cards away years ago, went of and had families, come back to the hobby to learn those 1 of 50 variants and such that use to fetch big money are not so valuable anymore.

Edited August 20, 2017 by rjrjr

[Westy Steve]

On ‎8‎/‎20‎/‎2017 at 6:32 AM, rjrjr said:

It is an interesting question and only time will tell.  I don't like the trend, but I understand why these publishers are doing it.  They learned they can milk more money from their hardcore fan base and this helps offset the loss in readership.  (One of Marvel's executives even said a few years back they'll keep raising prices, printing variants, and publishing events until the fans quit buying.  Based on current sales trends, that time may be coming.)  My personal opinion is this is short sided thinking on the part of the publishers; they are actually chasing away the types of collectors they really want, those who buy every issue of a title no matter what.  Marvel, for example, use to have these "Marvel zombies" as they use to be called but I'll wager there are very few of these people left in the hobby.  It doesn't surprise me we have seen a move towards "key only" collecting, very few people can afford to collect every issue of any title (including variants) anymore.  Instead, those who have been able to adjust their way of collecting or who do not remember a time when you could collect every issue of a title, seem to be okay with this trend because they just buy "keys".  IMHO, it is even worse, because very few of the variant issues are being read, but instead are just coveted for the cover.

What would be interesting to me would be to learn exactly how many comic readers are actual left who buy modern comics to read.  There are always discussions about modern cover art, but very few discussions about the content inside the comic, unless it is something that is negative like Captain America being a Nazi; I suspect most people participating in those discussions don't actually read the comics, but just want to express their displeasure at how comics have changed.

I'll use myself as an example, I buy as many variants of the Star Wars titles as I can afford, and that is usually every variant but the extreme ratio'd ones (1:100 or 1:200.)  So, I buy 3 or 4 different covers of the average Star Wars comic to get all the variants (for Darth Vader #1 that came out a few months back, there were 10+ variants), but I only read one copy.  If you consider this across the board, how many readers of these pamphlets are there really? 50% of the unit sales?  Maybe even less in some cases like the Darth Vader #1.

My personal opinion is there will always be someone who will spend the money and want these things (I'm one of them), but the number of these people will dwindle over time.  We are actually seeing this.  The publishers can get away with these ever increasingly difficult (i.e. expensive) variants as long as you have people willing to spend hundreds, if not thousands of dollars on a brand new comic.  But there will come a point where the finances of publishing the comics don't work anymore for the number of buyers left.  What do the publishers do then?

As for the value, there will always be someone who has the resources to pay.  I have no doubt about that after seeing people pay thousands of dollars for newly printed books.   The real question is, will you be one of those people who can afford to stick with the hobby long enough to care what the value of these things are worth?  Chances are most of us will drift away from the hobby, hanging onto the books we have, and if we return, we'll be disappointed with how few people are left wiling to buy these things we covet today.  I've seen that happen to many sports cards collectors.  They put pages of these cards away years ago, went of and had families, come back to the hobby to learn those 1 of 50 variants and such that use to fetch big money are not so valuable anymore.

You make some good points.  But consider this:  Look at coin collecting.  Essentially, it hasn't been possible to put together a meaningful coin collection from circulation since the late 1960's after silver coins stopped production in 1964.  10 years ago, I made a poll on a coin forum like this one to ask collectors how old they are.  (Hey, I think I'll do that here).  Anyway, I found out that even though I was 42 years old at the time, I was in the bottom 25% of collector age.  In other words, 75% of all of the collectors were older than me.  And yet, coin collecting continued to flourish, though it has turned south as of late.  But we've had comic book collecting in the 70's, 80's, and 90's with great strength.  And we have comic shows were kids parade past the comic book tables dressed up like pop culture figures, rubbing elbows with us.  Meanwhile, 5 year old kids dress up for Halloween like Ironman, they buy Batman Lego Sets, they play with Ninja Turtle action figures.  My point is that there was never such an upside down demographic as U.S. coins, and yet they flourished as the die hard fans who had grown children and nothing much to spend their money on fought each other to finish their collections.  This hobby isn't going anywhere for a long, long time and it's only going to get more expensive as the barn and attic finds turn to dust and we all compete with each other to finish our collections while trying to stiff-arm those ironman wearing, ninja turtle lovin' 5-year olds who grew up, got degrees, jobs, and spending money to try to outbid us.

[lou_fine]

On 8/19/2017 at 11:55 PM, ComicConnoisseur said:

If we are going to talk rarity,than I wonder if the variant comic book market is the way to go forward?

The reason why I am bringing this up is because I did a little research on Ebay in that just about the majority of all modern comic books that have any significant value since 2007 are low print variant comic books. 

The question which I have is out of the very few variants that does have some value over the long run, what proportion of the variants being published today basically become worthless drek relative to their initial purchase price. 

Especially when it seems that almost every single comic book being printed nowadays has its own variant editions. 

[Westy Steve]

48 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

The question which I have is out of the very few variants that does have some value over the long run, what proportion of the variants being published today basically become worthless drek relative to their initial purchase price. 

Especially when it seems that almost every single comic book being printed nowadays has its own variant editions. 

Give me some examples of great collectibles that were expressly produced to be collectibles and still had significant value 10 years later.  Anyone?

[Knightsofold]

3 minutes ago, Westy Steve said:

Give me some examples of great collectibles that were expressly produced to be collectibles and still had significant value 10 years later.  Anyone?

Well, there's Magic the gathering the collectible card game.....

Many serial numbered autographed collectible sports cards are still selling for quite a lot.  Even some variant colored rookie cards still command a high price.   

 

 

 

[Westy Steve]

I agree that some of the baseball cards were expressly made to be collectibles if they were special limited production cards.  But Magic cards were not, because they were all meant to be played.  What I mean is that a Mox was no more expressly produced to be a collectible than a Demonic Tutor.  They were still all meant to be played, even if they call themselves collectible.

[ComicConnoisseur]

5 hours ago, Westy Steve said:

Give me some examples of great collectibles that were expressly produced to be collectibles and still had significant value 10 years later.  Anyone?

Go on Ebay search nba,nfl,or mlb refractor cards which go for thousands.

for statues search Hot Toys

for action figures search chase figures

for sneakers search limited edition Jordans and Yeezys which go for thousands more than Walking Dead cgc 9.8

Comic books are actually late to the game when it comes to making limited editions with the variants.

Seems the modern variants are a new different kind of market than the variants of the 1990s?

Edited August 22, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[ComicConnoisseur]

4 hours ago, Knightsofold said:

Well, there's Magic the gathering the collectible card game.....

Many serial numbered autographed collectible sports cards are still selling for quite a lot.  Even some variant colored rookie cards still command a high price.   

 

 

 

It is amazing when you think about it for every one Walking Dead there is like 10 rookie sportscards that are just as hot or worth more. I guess sportscards have made a major comeback as a collectible.

Aaron Judge's rookies with some of the latest examples hitting in the thousands on Ebay.

 

 

 

[Westy Steve]

33 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Go on Ebay search nba,nfl,or mlb refractor cards which go for thousands.

for statues search Hot Toys

for action figures search chase figures

for sneakers search limited edition Jordans and Yeezys which go for thousands more than Walking Dead cgc 9.8

Comic books are actually late to the game when it comes to making limited editions with the variants.

Seems the modern variants are a new different kind of market than the variants of the 1990s?

OK, OK.  Uncle!  Uncle!  I guess I should never say never.  But there are a ton of examples of things made to be collectibles that failed.  I guess if you're creating a "contrived rarity" within an accepted collectible genre, you have a better chance of launching something that will actually take off.  

Edited August 22, 2017 by Westy Steve

[ComicConnoisseur]

23 minutes ago, Westy Steve said:

OK, OK.  Uncle!  Uncle!  I guess I should never say never.  But there are a ton of examples of things made to be collectibles that failed.  I guess if you're creating a "contrived rarity" within an accepted collectible genre, you have a better chance of launching something that will actually take off.  

The big questions are do we now look at these new comic book variants in a different light compared to the 1990s variants, and yes I know there are a ton of examples of things made to be collectibles that failed, but as @Knightsofold has shown there are plenty of other hobbies where thousands of dollars are made short-term with these new limited edition collectibles. So maybe we should re-look at these modern variant covers as investments instead of lumping them in with the 1990s comic book junk and Franklin Mint comparisions?

An example is sportscards overproduced 1990s junk is so vastly different from the modern refractor cards that are going for big bucks now,so maybe the new comic book variants are a different breed than the 1990s comic book dreck that was overproduced?

[Gatsby77]

I don't see the non-key variant comics ever taking off.

I think the litmus test will be in another 10 years with the current Valiant Entertainment books.

How much will folks be able to sell their full set of limited 1:10 X-O Manowar volume 2 # 1-20 editions when they're currently on volume 4?

Or even with Marvel and the "Mile High Comics" Star Wars variants.

Let's say you have a full set of what? 12 issues? 20?

10 years from now, who will care?

And what's the delta over the cost of a 1-20 normal set?

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

I don't see the non-key variant comics ever taking off.

I think the litmus test will be in another 10 years with the current Valiant Entertainment books.

How much will folks be able to sell their full set of limited 1:10 X-O Manowar volume 2 # 1-20 editions when they're currently on volume 4?

Or even with Marvel and the "Mile High Comics" Star Wars variants.

Let's say you have a full set of what? 12 issues? 20?

10 years from now, who will care?

And what's the delta over the cost of a 1-20 normal set?

That's the key(no pun intended) right there.

Like all those sportscards that are worth real money are the most part rookie key refractors and not just generic refractors,so I could see it being the key variant comics over the non-key variant comics.

[Gatsby77]

12 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

That's the key(no pun intended) right there.

Like all those sportscards that are worth real money are the most part rookie key refractors and not just generic refractors,so I could see it being the key variant comics over the non-key variant comics.

Good point.

Let's look at some older miniseries variants.

Say...Star Wars Dark Empire Gold and Platinum. Does anyone care about any issues other than # 1?

Or how about Marvel's The Dark Tower: Born sketch variants? Does anyone care about any issues other than # 1?