Official November 2017 heritage auction thread 3 3

[delekkerste]

15 hours ago, tth2 said:

Not at all.  Just because Roberts was waiting until the end to submit his bid and meet the minimum price doesn't mean that the bid he entered was the minimum price.  He could very well have entered $500k.  So some minnow submitting a snipe bid of $250K would've merely driven the winning price to whatever the increment above $250K is.  He wouldn't have won anything.

I didn't say that he sniped the minimum price.  I said that he would only have had one shot at it, meaning, if he didn't put in a big number (and I doubt he did for reasons explained below), he wouldn't have had a chance to come back with a higher bid as he would in a Heritage auction.  Thus, what I said was 100% correct - the eBay format is MORE CONDUCIVE to a minnow taking down a whale, who can just sledgehammer all comers in a back-and-forth auction like Heritage conducts.  That does not imply that the minnow would also similarly only have bid the minimum nor does it imply any guarantee of success.  Just MORE CONDUCIVE.  

Also, the winner is known to bid judiciously and for his concern at being taken advantage of and overpaying.  I could be wrong, but I bet his bid was nowhere near $500K.  In fact, it was hypothesized earlier in this thread that $250K-ish was his comfort level with big purchases around this time and that he may very well have bid right around there.  Despite the art having been shopped at much higher prices, my impression at the time (I'm sure shared by many others) was that this was almost surely going to be either a sale at the minimum bid or a non-sale.  I doubt the winner's bid was substantially above the minimum bid, where he would have potentially opened himself up to shilling, protection bids, etc.   

Edited October 24, 2017 by delekkerste

[Lee B.]

My apologies if this has already been reported, but it looks like online bidding is now live for this auction.  Go crazy folks!  Cheers, Lee

[NinjaSealed]

This auction probably has the most pieces in my wheelhouse out of all the auctions this year. Hoping to take a few lots home.

[jjonahjameson11]

Yes, a very interesting auction indeed.

[jjonahjameson11]

Yes, a very interesting auction indeed.

[batman_fan]

I like some of the McSpidey's

[The Shoveler]

Pfft. No back scans. 

[SquareChaos]

2 hours ago, The Shoveler said:

Pfft. No back scans. 

Topical!

[tth2]

14 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I could be wrong, but I bet his bid was nowhere near $500K. 

I have no idea what it was.  I just made up the number $500K because it's double the minimum bid, to illustrate that one doesn't need to snipe with the absolute minimum number.  I could've also picked 300,000, 400,000, 1,000,000, 10,000,000, etc. because it was just a hypothetical example. 

[delekkerste]

5 hours ago, tth2 said:

I have no idea what it was.  I just made up the number $500K because it's double the minimum bid, to illustrate that one doesn't need to snipe with the absolute minimum number.  I could've also picked 300,000, 400,000, 1,000,000, 10,000,000, etc. because it was just a hypothetical example. 

Yes, but the fact that he could have sniped higher was already well-considered into my thinking and I never stated or meant to imply anything otherwise.  And, in any case, it does not alter one iota my point that an eBay or CLink-style auction is an easier venue to pull off a David-style upset vs. in a Heritage or Hake's or ComicConnect style auction where the bidding just keeps going back and forth until a winner is determined, which hugely favors the Goliath in the battle. #moreconducive

[TMNT]

Couple points regarding TMNT:

1. Gene, I remember that auction exactly as you mentioned. A number people thought the auction was a scam since it was a 0 feedback seller. 

2. 10K a average a page sounds about right. There are a number of heavy hitters in that book (pg 2-3 splash especially). This is the type of book that would bring in previous non-tmnt buyers who want an example. 

3. I don't think such an offering would affect the other issues 3-5k general price points much, esp. long term. At the end of the day, there are still just the first 15 books or so that are most in demand and most of those issues have just a page or two (if any) out in the market. I wouldn't  be surprised if adding the prime 40 to market didn't spur greater interest in the other relative few pages out there because trust me, when you get one of these sweet duotone pages in hand, you'll want more. 

4. There are more buyers of TMNT art than most might think. I've gotten quite a few inquiries through here and CAF from new buyers just getting in. No where near the volume of interest of other properties for sure but definitely a lot stronger than it was when this auction first popped. 

[comix4fun]

52 minutes ago, TMNT said:

Couple points regarding TMNT:

1. Gene, I remember that auction exactly as you mentioned. A number people thought the auction was a scam since it was a 0 feedback seller. 

 

Perhaps that was true the first time it was listed, at $1 million, but it was listed more than once subsequent to that and by that time everyone knew who the seller was. 

Word spread very quickly about the seller, by the time it was relisted with a $250k starting bid there was no doubt. 

[PhilipB2k17]

Has anyone commented on the DKR page yet?

[PhilipB2k17]

On ‎10‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 1:04 PM, comix4fun said:

1 wraparound cover and 40 pages to a seminal creator owned small press book that became a marketing juggernaut and cultural icon to a generation.

6 covers and 120+ pages of interiors to one of the very best Spider-man stories every written. 

That's a tough call. Financially, if you ever had to sell it would be far easier to break the set of Spider-man up (as has been done) and recoup a massive windfall without ever touching the very best of the pages, splashes, covers. 

Broken up the Spidey's probably have a value floor somewhere around $700k in today's market, and probably more given what a couple of those covers would demand. 

The TMNT may have more cultural significance but the logistics of moving it (either in whole or in part) are more complicated than the Kraven story. 

If it was for nostalgia it's Kraven's Last Hunt. If it's for most significant contribution to pop culture it's TMNT. If it's for cash/nostalgia combination it's Kraven because I'd be able to piece off the pages and most of the covers, reap a massive profit, and still keep the very best of the covers. 

I'd take TNT #1 art in a heart beat. "Kraven's Last Hunt" only appeals strongly to a narrow group of nostalgia collectors who read the story at the time. When and if it ever gets turned into a film property, it may break out of that range. But the TMNT #1 art should trade at about the same rate as a 9.0+ copy of the book, per page. How much is a 9.8 Kraven's last hunt run?

[TMNT]

31 minutes ago, comix4fun said:

Perhaps that was true the first time it was listed, at $1 million, but it was listed more than once subsequent to that and by that time everyone knew who the seller was. 

Word spread very quickly about the seller, by the time it was relisted with a $250k starting bid there was no doubt. 

Yep. By the time the dust settled, we all knew it was the real deal. I just remember those initial musings as to who this 0 feedback seller was and if they had simply nabbed the photos from when it had been shopped around pre-auction for a million. 

[comix4fun]

21 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I'd take TNT #1 art in a heart beat. "Kraven's Last Hunt" only appeals strongly to a narrow group of nostalgia collectors who read the story at the time. When and if it ever gets turned into a film property, it may break out of that range. But the TMNT #1 art should trade at about the same rate as a 9.0+ copy of the book, per page. How much is a 9.8 Kraven's last hunt run?

That's probably the most disparate apples to orangutans argument (yes, it's a wider gap than apple to oranges) I've seen in some time. 

You're not actually comparing the value of comic to the artwork that was used to create it, right? And why arbitrarily choosing a 9.0 copy to compare prices to? 

There are lots of people who collect art in the 4-5-6 figure range you don't care at all to own a 9.8 copy of anything. Why would the the price of one reflect or be a data point in the price of the other?

TMNT with it's tiny 3000+ print run is always going to have a high price, in pretty much all grades, than any book from the ASM run where the print runs (in 1987) were approaching 500,000 copies every month, and upwards of 300,000 are out there still. 

And I think it's probably an overstep to believe Kraven's is only a nostalgia play in OA with no other traction. ASM OA collectors and ASM OA pages tend to be one of the most consistent market drivers in OA. When other things trend upwards, downwards, or flat ASM has proven to be the most resistant to drops and resilient overall. 

And really, if you look at it from a global comics perspective there's TMNT collectors are pretty nostalgic themselves. They aren't buying early pages for their aesthetics, it's the memories and the place in the history of the character and stories they value....kind of like Spidey...a lot like Kraven's.  

Ask yourself if TMNT #1 had a 500,000 copy print run, how much would comic be worth? How much would you think that would impact the value of the artwork? The comic value drops due to massive supply, but the artwork is still one of a kind. 

Edited October 25, 2017 by comix4fun

[NinjaSealed]

A couple thoughts after browsing the lots again;

- The McFarlane Venom page would be interesting. Early Venom pages from a few artists have been going nuts recently. This one may end at a jaw dropping price.

- The Kelley Jones Batman cover will be interesting. I thought before the auction the fact that it is a Knightfall cover AND a Batman vs Joker cover may really result in a slugfest.

-Has there been any recent auctions with this much quality Neal Adams work? GL pages, Batman pages Joker pages, Deadman, a Tec cover and more.

- 32 Kirby's in the auction and many should be affordable. I really love the OMAC pages.

- Wonderful selection of pretty Mignola pieces. Several nice Hellboy's.

To me this auction just has a wide great selection of material, really something for everyone.

[PhilipB2k17]

24 minutes ago, comix4fun said:

That's probably the most disparate apples to orangutans argument (yes, it's a wider gap than apple to oranges) I've seen in some time. 

You're not actually comparing the value of comic to the artwork that was used to create it, right? And why arbitrarily choosing a 9.0 copy to compare prices to? 

There are lots of people who collect art in the 4-5-6 figure range you don't care at all to own a 9.8 copy of anything. Why would the the price of one reflect or be a data point in the price of the other?

TMNT with it's tiny 3000+ print run is always going to have a high price, in pretty much all grades, than any book from the ASM run where the print runs (in 1987) were approaching 500,000 copies every month, and upwards of 300,000 are out there still. 

And I think it's probably an overstep to believe Kraven's is only a nostalgia play in OA with no other traction. ASM OA collectors and ASM OA pages tend to be one of the most consistent market drivers in OA. When other things trend upwards, downwards, or flat ASM has proven to be the most resistant to drops and resilient overall. 

And really, if you look at it from a global comics perspective there's TMNT collectors are pretty nostalgic themselves. They aren't buying early pages for their aesthetics, it's the memories and the place in the history of the character and stories they value....kind of like Spidey...a lot like Kraven's.  

Ask yourself if TMNT #1 had a 500,000 copy print run, how much would comic be worth? How much would you think that would impact the value of the artwork? The comic value drops due to massive supply, but the artwork is still one of a kind. 

Disagree with you there. The rarity and value of the comic is a big driver of the price of the art. It's not all of it, but it contributes to it tremendously. Also, whose comparing apples to oranges? You are comparing TMNT to Spider-Man, rather than the most important TMNT OA to probably 3rd or 4th tier Spider-Man OA pages.

The Spider-Man art hierarchy is

1. Ditko pages

2. Romita Pages (from important runs)

3. McSpidey pages

4...Maybe you insert KLH pages in here. Or even second and third tier Romita pages.

OA from AF #15 would be worth many, many, many, many, many multiples of any OA from KLH. And TMNT #1 is the AF #15 of TMNT art.

Now, maybe McSpidey and KLH can be flip flopped. But, I'd still take the TMNT #1 art.

Adding: I used 9.0 for the TMNT #1 because 9.8's are so rare. There are probably 3000 9.8 KLH runs out there. Probably equal to or exceeding the entire TMNT #1 original print run.

 

Edited October 25, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[comix4fun]

1 minute ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Disagree with you there. The rarity and value of the comic is a big driver of the price of the art. It's not all of it, but it contributes to it tremendously. Also, whose comparing apples to oranges? You are comparing TMNT to Spider-Man, rather than the most important TMNT OA to probably 3rd or 4th tier Spider-Man OA pages.

The Spider-Man art hierarchy is

1. Ditko pages

2. Romita Pages (from important runs)

3. McSpidey pages

4...Maybe you insert KLH pages in here.

OA from AS #15 would be worth many, many, many, many, many multiples of any OA from KLH. And TMNT #1 is the AF #15 of TMNT art.

 

The comparison between TMNT and ASM was yours. You directly compared the value of the TMNT #1 in 9.0 saying it sets the price for OA, and then asking what Kraven issues in 9.8 command.

If you weren't trying to compare the two then you didn't communicate that very clearly. 

And no one is saying Kraven pages will sell for TMNT #1 price, no one has said that in this thread or discussion, the discussion was of 1 TMNT cover and 40 TMNT pages vs. 6 Spider-man Covers and 120+ pages of Spider-man art. That's a pretty key component to the comparison. 

The width and breadth of the market is drastically different for these two properties. There are lots of TMNT fans, but are they fans of the comics, or the TV show, or the movies and will that translate directly over to the value of the OA? Meaning, do enough fans with enough money translate their love for their favorite characters or comics or movies and take the leap to buying the OA if they had the chance? No matter what the price?

I really don't know any longstanding veterans in artwork that gauge their valuation of art by the valuation of the comic book. Artwork is key or it's not. People want artwork and comics that are key or 1st appearances. The value of the comic and the art spring from the key-ness of the story, not the relative value of the printing comic.  People want pages from X-men #1 because they are pages from X-men #1 not because X-men #1 comics are worth a lot.  

[PhilipB2k17]

8 minutes ago, comix4fun said:

The comparison between TMNT and ASM was yours. You directly compared the value of the TMNT #1 in 9.0 saying it sets the price for OA, and then asking what Kraven issues in 9.8 command.

If you weren't trying to compare the two then you didn't communicate that very clearly. 

And no one is saying Kraven pages will sell for TMNT #1 price, no one has said that in this thread or discussion, the discussion was of 1 TMNT cover and 40 TMNT pages vs. 6 Spider-man Covers and 120+ pages of Spider-man art. That's a pretty key component to the comparison. 

The width and breadth of the market is drastically different for these two properties. There are lots of TMNT fans, but are they fans of the comics, or the TV show, or the movies and will that translate directly over to the value of the OA? Meaning, do enough fans with enough money translate their love for their favorite characters or comics or movies and take the leap to buying the OA if they had the chance? No matter what the price?

I really don't know any longstanding veterans in artwork that gauge their valuation of art by the valuation of the comic book. Artwork is key or it's not. People want artwork and comics that are key or 1st appearances. The value of the comic and the art spring from the key-ness of the story, not the relative value of the printing comic.  People want pages from X-men #1 because they are pages from X-men #1 not because X-men #1 comics are worth a lot.  

You are letting the tale wag the dog. The reason why those comics (like X-Men #1, and TMNT #1) are worth so much is precisely because they are key books, and are scarce (overall in the TMNT #1 case) or in high grades (in X-Men's case).

The books are valuable in large part for the same reasons the art is valuable. That's why it's not unfair to look at the value of the book the art is from as a means of gauging its overall value. I did say that it was not entirely the same. There certainly is a lot of OA that is valuable that does not come from a comic that is also valuable. But, that is usually because of some other aspect of the art aside from its "keyness," such as the artist, and the aethsetic value of the piece, the character portrayed, etc.

And, if we are going strictly on monetary lines, it is possible that all the KLH art, including the covers, may value out more if sold entirely than the #TMNT pages, but I'd still rather have the TMNT #1 pages.

And, did that TMNT art include the cover? Because that makes a big difference. That may be worth all of the interior pages combined, or more.

Edited October 25, 2017 by PhilipB2k17