GPA Analysis and Past eBay Sales No Longer Accurate, Warning! 4 4

[MustEatBrains]

41 minutes ago, thunsicker said:

It's at the bottom in the relists, non-sales, errors section.

Jeez, I missed that.. Thanks for pointing that out, makes a little more sense to me now.  Thanks @comicwiz for the reply as well..

[Squad008]

On 6/3/2018 at 3:17 PM, ygogolak said:

The other thing I didn't realize until I sold something this weekend is the sale of slabs during promotions. There is a 10% promotion this weekend. Hypothetically, you have a $1,000 slab that has been listed for a while. The 10% sale comes up, someone buys it. Now, they were only willing to pay $900+. If they wanted to pay $1,000 it would have been sold. BUT, the sale gets recorded as $1,000 (with eBay chipping in $100.)

Wow, started this topic a long time ago, surprised to see it is still going.  A few weeks back eBay had the 15% off up to $100 offer.  I think they have run that promotion 1-2 times a year.  I picked up a book I had on my want list which was listed at a good asking price.  eBay gives you the 1% eBay bucks on the original amount (so you get $7 eBay bucks if the listing is for $700, not $6 based on the discounted price.)  I also have an Acorns account and if you go through the app you get 1% invested in your account by eBay.  Use paypal and pay with a 2% cash back card and purchase price is well below GPA.

If you are selling though, you still get the full BIN price, it is eBay that is eating the $100 and other 2% (eBay bucks and Acorn invest.) So even though the buyer is paying less, the seller is still getting the price listed on gpa.  If eBay stopped running these promotions, doubt it would affect the prices much.

I still subscribe to GPA, its not perfect, but still a good resource to use to help guide someone on pricing.  eBay does leave the door open for market manipulation though. 

[ygogolak]

1 hour ago, Squad008 said:

Wow, started this topic a long time ago, surprised to see it is still going.  A few weeks back eBay had the 15% off up to $100 offer.  I think they have run that promotion 1-2 times a year.  I picked up a book I had on my want list which was listed at a good asking price.  eBay gives you the 1% eBay bucks on the original amount (so you get $7 eBay bucks if the listing is for $700, not $6 based on the discounted price.)  I also have an Acorns account and if you go through the app you get 1% invested in your account by eBay.  Use paypal and pay with a 2% cash back card and purchase price is well below GPA.

If you are selling though, you still get the full BIN price, it is eBay that is eating the $100 and other 2% (eBay bucks and Acorn invest.) So even though the buyer is paying less, the seller is still getting the price listed on gpa.  If eBay stopped running these promotions, doubt it would affect the prices much.

I still subscribe to GPA, its not perfect, but still a good resource to use to help guide someone on pricing.  eBay does leave the door open for market manipulation though. 

The whole point of GPA is to reflect what people are willing to pay. Thus, reflect the market price for things.

The promotions skew those numbers since they are not reflected by GPA.

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, ygogolak said:

The whole point of GPA is to reflect what people are willing to pay. Thus, reflect the market price for things.

The promotions skew those numbers since they are not reflected by GPA.

But is that the point?  GPA reflects the price of books sold.  I recently bought a "Buy It Now" for under $600 when the book would have easily gone for $900+ if it had been a regular auction with other bidders.  Of course, I was willing to pay $600, but that's not a valid reflection of the market price either, since it was the seller's fault for not recognizing the market trends.

My point is that "Buy It Now" has been skewing GPA for far longer than any discount codes, so we seem to be complaining about Charmander but giving Charizard a pass.

[Squad008]

3 hours ago, ygogolak said:

The whole point of GPA is to reflect what people are willing to pay. Thus, reflect the market price for things.

The promotions skew those numbers since they are not reflected by GPA.

I agree with you for the most part.  Which is why I started this post when eBay started doing their secret non disclosed offers (which has been pointed out is similar to someone getting a partial refund after a sale, etc.).  

Using GPA data to see what someone will pay is just part of it, I also use it to see what the last seller received which would make eBay promotions meaningless because eBay paid seller full asking price.  Now if eBay stops these promotions, and I have to assume that they will at some point (15% up to $100 is a lot for eBay to eat) then it could impact how much a seller receives.  Since the eBay cash discount promotions don't come along very often, if it is a book that sells regularly, then it shouldn't matter much.

GPA is also good if your going to get insurance or are looking to buy a book as a ball park figure.

Anyway, I first posted this after I sold a book through eBay by sending an offer to someone who messaged me.  I noticed that eBay sold listing showed that the book sold for full value and it was reflected on GPA for full value.  One of the boardies looked into the code on the links I sent of the sales and there was something in the URL that was different, so it is possible to tell what books actually sold for less then full asking by looking at the url on sold listings.  I used to look at the URL for all books I was looking to buy.  I came across very few sold BIN listings that had the url code indicating it was sold by offer so I stopped doing it.  I did find that certain individual books had multiple sold BIN with the URL code showing that an offer was accepted.  They were all modern CGC slabs. I can't remember the exact books but Rick and Morty is popping into my head.

[ygogolak]

2 hours ago, valiantman said:

But is that the point?  GPA reflects the price of books sold.  I recently bought a "Buy It Now" for under $600 when the book would have easily gone for $900+ if it had been a regular auction with other bidders.  Of course, I was willing to pay $600, but that's not a valid reflection of the market price either, since it was the seller's fault for not recognizing the market trends.

My point is that "Buy It Now" has been skewing GPA for far longer than any discount codes, so we seem to be complaining about Charmander but giving Charizard a pass.

Why would you need to know what something sold for if it was not to determine value in some way? For sale, insurance purposes or just general knowledge.

No clue on that reference you made.

[valiantman]

21 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Why would you need to know what something sold for if it was not to determine value in some way? For sale, insurance purposes or just general knowledge.

Realistic Market Price = $1,000

A) A Buy-It-Now Sale of $600 (Seller receives $600 minus Ebay cut)

B) Ebay Sale with 10% Discount for $1,000, which only cost the buyer $900  (Seller receives $1,000 minus Ebay cut)

You're complaining about B) going into the GPA Average because of recent Ebay discount codes, but A) has been going into GPA forever.

[justafan]

25 minutes ago, Squad008 said:

I agree with you for the most part.  Which is why I started this post when eBay started doing their secret non disclosed offers (which has been pointed out is similar to someone getting a partial refund after a sale, etc.).  

Using GPA data to see what someone will pay is just part of it, I also use it to see what the last seller received which would make eBay promotions meaningless because eBay paid seller full asking price.  Now if eBay stops these promotions, and I have to assume that they will at some point (15% up to $100 is a lot for eBay to eat) then it could impact how much a seller receives.  Since the eBay cash discount promotions don't come along very often, if it is a book that sells regularly, then it shouldn't matter much.

GPA is also good if your going to get insurance or are looking to buy a book as a ball park figure.

Anyway, I first posted this after I sold a book through eBay by sending an offer to someone who messaged me.  I noticed that eBay sold listing showed that the book sold for full value and it was reflected on GPA for full value.  One of the boardies looked into the code on the links I sent of the sales and there was something in the URL that was different, so it is possible to tell what books actually sold for less then full asking by looking at the url on sold listings.  I used to look at the URL for all books I was looking to buy.  I came across very few sold BIN listings that had the url code indicating it was sold by offer so I stopped doing it.  I did find that certain individual books had multiple sold BIN with the URL code showing that an offer was accepted.  They were all modern CGC slabs. I can't remember the exact books but Rick and Morty is popping into my head.

maybe we should start looking at GPA prices as prices that sellers are willing to sell their books at and not necessarily prices that buyers are willing to buy at.  In essence, GPA becomes the new ASK vs the Bid price and set the market price at something like a 5-10% discount to the ASK price?

[ygogolak]

46 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Realistic Market Price = $1,000

A) A Buy-It-Now Sale of $600 (Seller receives $600 minus Ebay cut)

B) Ebay Sale with 10% Discount for $1,000, which only cost the buyer $900  (Seller receives $1,000 minus Ebay cut)

You're complaining about B) going into the GPA Average because of recent Ebay discount codes, but A) has been going into GPA forever.

Not sure where I said anything about the seller? It does not matter what the seller receives. What if they drop all their cash down a sewer grate after the transaction. GPA = $0?

The market value is determined by what someone is willing to pay. What the seller receives is irrelevant in determining this.

Edited August 24, 2018 by ygogolak

[ygogolak]

12 minutes ago, justafan said:

maybe we should start looking at GPA prices as prices that sellers are willing to sell their books at and not necessarily prices that buyers are willing to buy at.  In essence, GPA becomes the new ASK vs the Bid price and set the market price at something like a 5-10% discount to the ASK price?

It really would not be hard to add an * next to a sale to indicate it was sold during a discount period of XX%.

[Squad008]

13 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Realistic Market Price = $1,000

A) A Buy-It-Now Sale of $600 (Seller receives $600 minus Ebay cut)

B) Ebay Sale with 10% Discount for $1,000, which only cost the buyer $900  (Seller receives $1,000 minus Ebay cut)

You're complaining about B) going into the GPA Average because of recent Ebay discount codes, but A) has been going into GPA forever.

That is true but that situation is an outlier.  If you dig deeper on GPA and look at sales for say all of 2018 and all of 2017, if a sale is way off then the person looking at the data should recognize it as an outlier.

The reverse would be someone walking into a dealership and deciding to pay full sticker price.  I'm sure it has happened but the dealer knows that is an outlier and not the expected sales price.

I was more worried about market manipulation, which applies mostly to modern books that don't have a long sales history.  Type in hot comic books in google and you can see *cough pump and dump schemes cough* I mean legit advice on investing in moderns that are plentiful in high grade and common as dirt.  I worry much much much less when it comes to gold, silver or even bronze age keys. Lets say that someone buys a Detective Comics #359 CGC 7.0 for $500 from a seller that put it at that level on eBay.  Good for that buyer, to me and almost all of the market, a Tech 359 CGC 7.0 is worth way more and the only meaning of the $500 sale is that many people wish they saw it first.  

It does mess up the 90 day average though.  Just need to dig.

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, Squad008 said:

1 hour ago, valiantman said:

Realistic Market Price = $1,000

A) A Buy-It-Now Sale of $600 (Seller receives $600 minus Ebay cut)

B) Ebay Sale with 10% Discount for $1,000, which only cost the buyer $900  (Seller receives $1,000 minus Ebay cut)

You're complaining about B) going into the GPA Average because of recent Ebay discount codes, but A) has been going into GPA forever.

That is true but that situation is an outlier.  If you dig deeper on GPA and look at sales for say all of 2018 and all of 2017, if a sale is way off then the person looking at the data should recognize it as an outlier.

The reverse would be someone walking into a dealership and deciding to pay full sticker price.  I'm sure it has happened but the dealer knows that is an outlier and not the expected sales price.

I was more worried about market manipulation, which applies mostly to modern books that don't have a long sales history.  Type in hot comic books in google and you can see *cough pump and dump schemes cough* I mean legit advice on investing in moderns that are plentiful in high grade and common as dirt.  I worry much much much less when it comes to gold, silver or even bronze age keys. Lets say that someone buys a Detective Comics #359 CGC 7.0 for $500 from a seller that put it at that level on eBay.  Good for that buyer, to me and almost all of the market, a Tech 359 CGC 7.0 is worth way more and the only meaning of the $500 sale is that many people wish they saw it first.  

It does mess up the 90 day average though.  Just need to dig.

That situation (the "Buy-it-Now" price is recorded by GPA) is not an outlier.  It is a standard. More than 50% of CGC sales on Ebay result from only 1 bid, and 20% of those are "Buy-It-Now".

A realistic market price is $1,000 because of recent sales. A seller sets a Buy-It-Now price of $600 and the book sells.  GPA now averages $600 into the recent sales near $1,000 and the book appears to be losing value by 10% or more, price dropping, whatever-you-want-to-call-it.  

That is not valid in any way, shape, or form... but that's what happens all the time.  GPA has always done that.  Now, tell me again how a 10% discount code sale in GPA being recorded with a few other sales, resulting in a 2% difference for the average is a bigger problem.

[VintageComics]

5 hours ago, Squad008 said:

f you dig deeper on GPA and look at sales for say all of 2018 and all of 2017, if a sale is way off then the person looking at the data should recognize it as an outlier.

Except that sellers generally prefer to quote highest sales (especially if it was the last sale because if the last sale is high the book is OBIVOUSLY on fire) and buyers like to quote low sales.

But as a general rule, I agree with you. I tend to price using averages rather than outliers.