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Are the Boomers cashing out?
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380 posts in this topic

On 9/7/2017 at 5:22 PM, FSF said:

I realize that IRR isn't a cash out but any project has to meet that thresshold as a return to achieve.  However, in a lot of cases, there are debt leveraged companies that actually pay interest to fund projects so it would be a cash out of some amount.

And no one suggested that Marvel movies haven't been wildly successful.  We all know they have.  This is about what the future may bring and the bar is higher and higher to make an impact.  The passage you quote doesn't at all detail exactly how those numbers are derived so we can't know for sure what costs have or haven't been included, though I assume there were plenty of profits to be made which I never stated otherwise.  Would it really shock anyone if the budget for the next one or a final third or whatever winds up with a budget of $250M and more s&m and grosses only $600M (an impressive revenue number to the vast majority of lay people going to these movies), but one which will ultimate result in millions in losses?

I mentioned taxes because the net profit number is what ultimately is made.  Companies don't keep taxes so one always has to look at the BOTTOM line and know exactly what is in it for them.  As for EBITDA, that is a Wall Street concoction to peddle overvalued equities in an effort to pretend that companies are making more than they actually are.  If EBITDA is what's so important, why does the SEC require income statements to be submitted on a net income basis???

 

 

 

 

Your statements are more rambling than the quote I put. You throw out numbers that have no relevance. If 1 business makes 1 million and another makes 1 million they generally have the same tax cost. Therefore tax is irrelevant. Cost of making profit. No one cares about taxes because it's a given that when you make money you owe taxes. 

 

Not like the $100 million they made on doc strange would have resulted in less taxes if they made $100 million in something else. 

 

The IRR which I still don't think you understand is basically a model to gauge the successfulness of an investment. It's not a cost it's not anything. If doctor strange was wildly successful, you don't subtract IRR cuz it's already wildly successful. No test required. 

All your other comments have no basis in fact. If you want to say I don't think marvel will continue to stay this hot, good for you and you are entitled to your opinion. 

Ant man 2 with the same budget doesn't need to do twice the business to be a solid endevour. Look at pirates of the Caribbean it continues to make less than the 2nd installment but it's still profitable enough to be green lit for another installment. 

 

$700 million to break even. Show any link to back up this preposterous claim, you are throwing random numbers. That would mean almost every xmen movie has bombed lol

Keep throwing out numbers with zero factual basis. I'm done. Mic drop 

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4 hours ago, Rezin1234 said:

Your statements are more rambling than the quote I put. You throw out numbers that have no relevance. If 1 business makes 1 million and another makes 1 million they generally have the same tax cost. Therefore tax is irrelevant. Cost of making profit. No one cares about taxes because it's a given that when you make money you owe taxes. 

 

Not like the $100 million they made on doc strange would have resulted in less taxes if they made $100 million in something else. 

 

The IRR which I still don't think you understand is basically a model to gauge the successfulness of an investment. It's not a cost it's not anything. If doctor strange was wildly successful, you don't subtract IRR cuz it's already wildly successful. No test required. 

All your other comments have no basis in fact. If you want to say I don't think marvel will continue to stay this hot, good for you and you are entitled to your opinion. 

Ant man 2 with the same budget doesn't need to do twice the business to be a solid endevour. Look at pirates of the Caribbean it continues to make less than the 2nd installment but it's still profitable enough to be green lit for another installment. 

 

$700 million to break even. Show any link to back up this preposterous claim, you are throwing random numbers. That would mean almost every xmen movie has bombed lol

Keep throwing out numbers with zero factual basis. I'm done. Mic drop 

Let me break it down for you so it's very clear.  We are talking about the possibility of studios green-lighting a project or not, in this case XYZ comic movie in the future.  They do this by calculating the NPV ("net present value") of the given project.  In that NPV calculation, the IRR is used as a calculating ("discounting") factor to determine what the NPV is. If that NPV is below negative, "No money for you [comic book movie]!!!".  If it is a positive figure, then it will possibly get green-lit.  The final decision is based on a whole host of factors such as how confident they are in the accuracy of the NPV analysis, what other competing positive NPV projects are in the pipeline, how much cash they have, how much access to debt or equity capital they have and various other considerations.  But in judging the "go-no go" decision of the prospective movie, that IRR will be used so we can't just ignore it because it isn't a cash outlay when it very much factors into the decision of whether the company will proceed or not with the project (which is what we have been discussing here).

As for taxes, sure why would an investor care about the ultimate net returns.  The actual amount that a  company makes after ALL expenses?  Yeah, whatever.

As for big gross movies losing money, take a look at the link I provided.  It has an example that appears to have been prepared by a studio.

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Some items Ive that are good bets :

Presley+ sgd 50s photo

Jaws novel sgd by all 3 (Shaw+ , Scheider+ & Dreyfuss)

Cazale+  

Ledger+ sig

Bruce Lee's nunchucks

Andress sgd Dr No Italian 4sh

Connery vintage sgd Bond stills

Roger Moore+/Keen+/Brown+ sgd AVTAK book

Megator MIB (Europe only)

OHMSS Italy 2sh sgd Lazenby/Rigg/Mountain/Schell/Hanley/Henriques/Leech+

/Sims+

Avengers newspaper sgd poster (Rigg only did 1 con and will prolly not do another)

Avengers Rigg sgd french 2sh (she hates signing Avengers)

Mego 007 Drax sgd MIB (so far Lonsdale has only done 1 con ever)

 

Edited by postersandstuff
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27 minutes ago, musicmeta said:

Yes, western Ghost Rider( I guess Phantom Rider) all the way!!! make him one of the Avengers, Defenders...something!!

They'd probably turn him into Marvel's version of Terra Man ; an 'update' with a metal robot horse and laser six-shooters.

Sadly.

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4 minutes ago, Ken Aldred said:

They'd probably turn him into Marvel's version of Terra Man ; an 'update' with a metal robot horse and laser six-shooters.

Sadly.

more like six laser guided mini-guns. lol

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On ‎11‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 7:32 AM, Martin Sinescu said:

Wow, that's interesting, I'd love to see a pic of that. Any idea why she hates signing Avengers stuff?

They did not treat her very well. She reportedly made less than the camera men.

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"That's before the time value of money is even considered, which is where the IRR comes into play"

 

I don't think the IRR really comes into play there. Their hoped for IRR is what they feel they need to make to bother with something.

Time value would factor in their borrowing costs and I suppose plopping down $100 million to make a movie that doesn't screen for three years is a lot of money sunk into something that isn't paying out, so ever year it doesn't get released is at least a cost of the yearly borrowing cost.

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We live in great times for buyers/sellers is all I have to say 

I spend money buying collections and rare books both online and off

and I do the same for selling. 

It used to be that I couldnt flip a long box of drek to save my life. Now with fb/IG/craigslist and sometimes eBay... I get up to $100 for said box... and usually on the same day of listing.

Buying comics.. what can I say... just soooooo many venues to buy... endless! The hunger is real!

comics, tpb, slabs, its not even about movies or your casual pump n dumper market anymore... people just buy buy buy

I had a guy reach out to me through IG last night... 10:30pm to be exact... he saw a random signed Perez slab I had and asked me if i'd be willing to deliver it to him downtown Manhattan ... at first i thought... naaah, but then I said, shoot , why not..

30 min later, hello $200

Im about to go drop off a long box in Brooklyn now for the same amount...

Im just so overwhelmed by this sometimes

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6 minutes ago, Aweandlorder said:

We live in great times for buyers/sellers is all I have to say 

I spend money buying collections and rare books both online and off

and I do the same for selling. 

It used to be that I couldnt flip a long box of drek to save my life. Now with fb/IG/craigslist and sometimes eBay... I get up to $100 for said box... and usually on the same day of listing.

Buying comics.. what can I say... just soooooo many venues to buy... endless! The hunger is real!

comics, tpb, slabs, its not even about movies or your casual pump n dumper market anymore... people just buy buy buy

I had a guy reach out to me through IG last night... 10:30pm to be exact... he saw a random signed Perez slab I had and asked me if i'd be willing to deliver it to him downtown Manhattan ... at first i thought... naaah, but then I said, shoot , why not..

30 min later, hello $200

Im about to go drop off a long box in Brooklyn now for the same amount...

Im just so overwhelmed by this sometimes

What's your Instagram if you don't mind me asking?

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I don't know if its true or not, but the assertion is pretty logical. At some point you have to expect a particular generation of collectors to cash out, at least a certain percentage of them, and now would seem like a pretty valid dropping off point for a lot of the boomers given that the average age of baby boomers now is roughly 65 years of age. That said, I don't think it would have a serious impact on silver age or golden age comics one way or the other since demand continues to be very strong for those comics. 

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