Speculating for non-speculators 1 1

[NoMan]

I recently bought an X-Men 130 (first Dazzler) and while I was in the process of purchase I thought, "I believe I heard somewhere there was going to be a Dazzler movie so this could be a (more) valuable book at some point."

I don't speculate so I'm really not versed in the ways of The Flipper but my X-Men purchase got time to thinking: If you don't speculate in your comic purchases, at what point do you begin speculating? Or what makes you speculate if you don't normally speculate?

Having a tough time trying formulate my question. 

[ADAMANTIUM]

Are you asking if deep down and subconsciously we are all speculating on some level?  

Maybe a better question is at what point do you make the choice to purchase for: profit, personal interest, collecting in grade, or nostalgia?

[Ryanfromottawa]

The only time I really ‘speculate’ is if I come across something I need / want and talk myself into purchasing it for fear of it climbing in value due to ‘Buz ‘ of a TV movie project 

[NoMan]

26 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

Are you asking if deep down and subconsciously we are all speculating on some level?  

Maybe a better question is at what point do you make the choice to purchase for: profit, personal interest, collecting in grade, or nostalgia?

Ok, that works! Thanks for the linguistic  help! . 

At what point does a purchase become about future profit? 

Edited October 10, 2017 by NoMan

[ADAMANTIUM]

Just now, NoMan said:

Ok, that works! Thanks for the linguistic help! . 

What point does a purchase become about future profit? 

I think that we all deep down buy for a hope of return "someday", whether through long-term hold/sell by us, kids (grand or great-grand) or family members. I think personally I spend money that I have no "need" of at the moment, but deep down with every purchase I think the logic is we can eventually get "some" money back that justifies some of our purchases. Meaning we justify by saying it isn't a complete waste. As far as profit, we all probably want that too, just some of us hold out longer than others hahaha

[NoMan]

2 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

I think that we all deep down buy for a hope of return "someday", whether through long-term hold/sell by us, kids (grand or great-grand) or family members. I think personally I spend money that I have no "need" of at the moment, but deep down with every purchase I think the logic is we can eventually get "some" money back that justifies some of our purchases. Meaning we justify by saying it isn't a complete waste. As far as profit, we all probably want that too, just some of us hold out longer than others hahaha

But how about going out of your way to buy a book that you think will go up in value? Making the purchase only because a profit will be made. 

For example whatever that book is that is the first Harley-Quinn. I have no interest in that book because it's not my collection-focus.  However, sometimes I see it at a convention and the next time I see it it's for more and so on and so on. In the far, far back reaches of my mind I think, "I should pick that up and sell it a bit later to pick up some books I really want.!"

[NoMan]

12 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

I think that we all deep down buy for a hope of return "someday", whether through long-term hold/sell by us, kids (grand or great-grand) or family members. I think personally I spend money that I have no "need" of at the moment, but deep down with every purchase I think the logic is we can eventually get "some" money back that justifies some of our purchases. Meaning we justify by saying it isn't a complete waste. As far as profit, we all probably want that too, just some of us hold out longer than others hahaha

Hope you don't mind a question: You buy knowing and or expecting fully that you won't get back the money you spent (on an individual comic book) ?

[ADAMANTIUM]

1 minute ago, NoMan said:

But how about going out of your way to buy a book that you think will go up in value? Making the purchase only because a profit will be made. 

For example whatever that book is that is the first Harley-Quinn. I have no interest in that book because it's not my collection-focus.  However, sometimes I see it at a convention and the next time I see it it's for more and so on and so on. In the far, far back reaches of my mind I think, "I should pick that up and sell it a bit later to pick up some books I really want.!"

I agree speculating seem's tempting, but with the market fluctuating it is too risky imo. I did that when I first started, that exact book in fact. It's Batman Adventures #12. I bought a raw and had it graded (ended up a CGC 7.0) overall spent like $475, which was a good deal at the time. A year later I bought a CGC 8.5 for $432, and now I could probably get a 9.2 for about $499. 

Speculating has too many variables, for instance, comic-cons started to come out with "reprints" of that book that people were buying up and it devalued the first print imo.

It's good that some people tend to discourage speculating cause it is an expensive lesson to learn, that works for some but not all.

2 minutes ago, NoMan said:

Hope you don't mind a question: You buy knowing and or expecting fully that you won't get back the money you spent (on an individual comic book) ?

 NO but sometimes it happens, I fully go into it expecting value to be stable and increase. With speculating it has cause the market to fluctuate that nothing is a sure thing is all I'm saying  

[ADAMANTIUM]

6 minutes ago, NoMan said:

Hope you don't mind a question: You buy knowing and or expecting fully that you won't get back the money you spent (on an individual comic book) ?

when I say "some" money, I have to accept the fact that with the market as such there is a possibility of loss, "some" can mean profit too though that is why I put it in quotes....

21 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

I think that we all deep down buy for a hope of return "someday", whether through long-term hold/sell by us, kids (grand or great-grand) or family members. I think personally I spend money that I have no "need" of at the moment, but deep down with every purchase I think the logic is we can eventually get "some" money back that justifies some of our purchases. Meaning we justify by saying it isn't a complete waste. As far as profit, we all probably want that too, just some of us hold out longer than others hahaha

 

[NoMan]

3 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

I agree speculating seem's tempting, but with the market fluctuating it is too risky imo. I did that when I first started, that exact book in fact. It's Batman Adventures #12. I bought a raw and had it graded (ended up a CGC 7.0) overall spent like $475, which was a good deal at the time. A year later I bought a CGC 8.5 for $432, and now I could probably get a 9.2 for about $499. 

Speculating has too many variables, for instance, comic-cons started to come out with "reprints" of that book that people were buying up and it devalued the first print imo.

It's good that some people tend to discourage speculating cause it is an expensive lesson to learn, that works for some but not all.

 NO but sometimes it happens, I fully go into it expecting value to be stable and increase. With speculating it has cause the market to fluctuate that nothing is a sure thing is all I'm saying  

Like I said, BA 12 isn't part of my focus, so I don't follow it. I didn't know it was falling in value. Thought it was one of those crazy books that just climb and climb and climb. 

[Mercury Man]

The only time I speculate, is when I speculate on speculators speculating, and in turn speculate on how affordable many books would be without speculators speculating and in turn choose not to speculate because of speculators.  But this is all speculation.

[Terrapin]

If I were buying for future profit I'd stay away from recent books. They are too volatile. A silver age #1 or first appearance is such a lock to increase in value it's hard to call it speculating. Unless the entire market for vintage comics crashes like the stock market in the 20's they're guaranteed to increase dramatically. I sold my 2.5 brave and the bold #28 a while back because I was strapped for cash and thought I'd upgrade someday. Today I'd have to pay at least twice what I sold it for and 3X+ what I paid for another 2.5.

[NoMan]

2 minutes ago, Terrapin said:

If I were buying for future profit I'd stay away from recent books. They are too volatile. A silver age #1 or first appearance is such a lock to increase in value it's hard to call it speculating. Unless the entire market for vintage comics crashes like the stock market in the 20's they're guaranteed to increase dramatically. I sold my 2.5 brave and the bold #28 a while back because I was strapped for cash and thought I'd upgrade someday. Today I'd have to pay at least twice what I sold it for and 3X+ what I paid for another 2.5.

I was more kinda asking when does a Non-Speculator become a Speculator. 

Or something like that.  

[ADAMANTIUM]

2 minutes ago, Mercury Man said:

The only time I speculate, is when I speculate on speculators speculating, and in turn speculate on how affordable many books would be without speculators speculating and in turn choose not to speculate because of speculators.  But this is all speculation.

that's all speculation

@NoMan

there is no harm in wanting to profit off a book is what I meant, can't win'em all, but if it is a book you want personally anyway go for it. I was happy with my BA 12 7.0 because I grew up with the Batman animated cartoon, which introduced Harley Quinn and I wanted her first appearance regardless. When I said that I "speculated" on the book, I was like you thinking that it would soon be out of my price range or at least what I felt comfortable spending. Harley Quinn and Gambit were both some of my favorite characters growing up on Saturday morning cartoons in the late 80's and early 90's. Believe it or not, back then I would have thought they had been around forever because I didn't know better  

When I realized that Wolverine was only 7 years before my time I nearly lost it haha, but for some odd reason I never caught on to Star Wars, I was more into Indiana Jones  

[comicjack]

It's all speculation the sky could fall tomorrow so buy what you enjoy i'm sure you have heard it before 

[NoMan]

I guess we all find deals now and then that we can't turn down because of future profit. 

Edited October 10, 2017 by NoMan

[comicjack]

3 minutes ago, NoMan said:

I guess we all find deals now and then that we can't turn down because of future profit. 

Nothing  wrong with that 

[drotto]

There is also a difference between owning established key books from the GA, SA, or even the BA, and betting on modern "keys" or even more so variants. It is basically the same as owning stock from an established blue chip company and a new startup.  The blue chip comics will most likely always have value.  They are less likely to get a big spike in value, but are likely to continue slowly rising as time passes.  These books are generally long term holds, and any comic reader is knows these books and is aware of their value. These are your Action 1's, Avengers 1, X-men 1's, Tech 27's etc.  Now many of these are already very expensive and out of the range of many collectors, but part of what you are paying for is the stability of the book being a known and likely stable quantity.  

 

Then you have your moderns and variants.  Now some of these like BA 12, or NYX 3, may (I stress may), be on the verge of crossing over into low blue chip territory. The upside to these books is you stand the chance of getting in on the bottom end of cost, and have the possiblity of a large percentage jump far more quickly than established keys. These are generally much cheaper to get into and you have the small chance of rapid appritiation.  Like a day trader on the stock market you need to know the market well and be willing to move fast. The big downside is these are by nature far more speculative, and most of them are likely to crash. So if you do not time things just right, you will be the one left holding the book you paid big money for, that is now worth pennies on the dollar.

 

Comic book investing is very much like any type of investing.  There are safe ways to do it where you are unlikely to lose money, but only see a gradual return verses making a killing but having high risk in order to do so.

[1Cool]

If you are buying a book with the goal of the book going up in value with no interest in reading it or having in your collection then I think you have crossed over into the speculator side of the market.  People that buy for a collection are of course collectors regardless if they hope the book will go up while it's in their collection.  Speculation is a form of gambling since you are hoping to get ahead of the market and buy books cheap and then hope they go up.  

[ygogolak]

37 minutes ago, NoMan said:

I was more kinda asking when does a Non-Speculator become a Speculator. 

Or something like that.  

For me it was when I realized that I could buy something for less than people (the market) would pay for it and enjoy doing it. I also got to the point where I had more comics than I wanted taking up space. Both have helped me keep my personal funds and my comic funds separate, which I find to be important and sometimes troubling in today's market. Buying on credit.

Edited October 10, 2017 by ygogolak