Speculating for non-speculators 1 1

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

I could take a bath buying 20 nice copies of Spider-Woman 1 a bit ago for $5 each but the way I look at it is there is a market on the horizon so why not use some knowledge and guessing to hopefully make more money then just buying key books and sitting on them for several years.

That's most likely because you are primarily a speculator at heart and much more so than a comic book collector.

If you was a comic book collector at heart, you would most likely take the opposite tack by buying the key book and hoping that it goes up in value over time. 

[ygogolak]

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

It definitely is a more secure feeling to buy key books and sit on them.  The problem is finding the true keys for a good price is hard to do and if you are looking for short term profits then buying a FF 48 at market price and selling it for market price +5% is not going to get you very far unless you sit on it for awhile and wait for the market price to go up.  Using the X-Men 130 for example - you could have started buying them up when Suicide Squad came out and you noticed there seemed to be a huge upswing in strong female characters becoming popular.  Prices were pretty low back them on the X-Men 130 - fast forward a couple years and now the prices seem to be poised to go up a ton and cheap copies are hard to find.  You almost have to be ahead of the game or you are just playing catch up and hoping to grab a steal.  I could take a bath buying 20 nice copies of Spider-Woman 1 a bit ago for $5 each but the way I look at it is there is a market on the horizon so why not use some knowledge and guessing to hopefully make more money then just buying key books and sitting on them for several years.

FF45 seems to still be OK, but what about FF 48? Is it a key, sure. But remember how big the upswing was 3 years ago or so with the movie talk? It has dropped considerably since then. So, yes, it's a key, but has not retained recent value. Nothing is for sure.

[lou_fine]

19 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

FF45 seems to still be OK, but what about FF 48? Is it a key, sure. But remember how big the upswing was 3 years ago or so with the movie talk? It has dropped considerably since then. So, yes, it's a key, but has not retained recent value. Nothing is for sure.

From a dollar point of view, it is almost never ever a good idea to buy a book when the price of the book is being driven upwards by movie hype or anything else of a temporary nature.

It is almost a guaranteed money loser as history has shown us time and time again, especially if you are talking about common and easy to find books.

[ygogolak]

17 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

From a dollar point of view, it is almost never ever a good idea to buy a book when the price of the book is being driven upwards by movie hype or anything else of a temporary nature.

It is almost a guaranteed money loser as history has shown us time and time again, especially if you are talking about common and easy to find books.

There's time to buy books before they hit peaks. Many on here understand that curve and know when to buy and when to sell. Like @1Cool said, you shouldn't be buying high dollar for a 5% return. A book like The Inhumans there was plenty of time to get in and get out.

[1Cool]

8 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

There's time to buy books before they hit peaks. Many on here understand that curve and know when to buy and when to sell. Like @1Cool said, you shouldn't be buying high dollar for a 5% return. A book like The Inhumans there was plenty of time to get in and get out.

Timing is key for any speculation be it buying land cheap or stocks or comic books.  Books see huge swings and you need to be able to be ready to cash in or you can get stuck with a ton of over priced books.  I bought up a bunch (30 copies or so) of X-Men 148 over a couple years when it seemed like Caliban was going to be part of the X-Men movie universe.  I slacked on listing all of the copies before Logan came out and only sold 10 copies or so at a good premium.  I'll still do ok with the remaining 20 copies but the sales will be slow compared to during the pre Logan movie hype.  I bought a few Preacher 1s right before the 2nd season came back out since I thought a new price jump was going to happen - it didn't and I'll probably lose a few bucks.  They can't all be winners but it makes the successes even sweeter. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

I think Batman and Spider-Man modern books that have come out in the last 20 years 1997-2017 might have some speculator value,not big value but a decent bet to return small profits for the commons ones,and maybe hit a few homeruns with any semi-keys/keys that Batman and Spider-Man have been involved in.

Also,their variant cover market also looks interesting.

The two characters are the flagship characters for Marvel and DC and I could see a decade from now their fans looking for the issues to complete runs or any keys they were in. Slow growth. 

 

[TheFifthHorseman]

8 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

I think Batman and Spider-Man modern books that have come out in the last 20 years 1997-2017 might have some speculator value .. .. their variant cover market also looks interesting.

Last year I bought a Batman #608 RRP CGC 9.4 for $1350. I flipped it a few months later on eBay for $2025.

I took that money and turned it into something much cooler (and much more rare)

No idea what the market for that book looks like now but I don't really care. What I ended up with was, for me, much better

[TheFifthHorseman]

3 hours ago, 1Cool said:

why not use some knowledge and guessing to hopefully make more money then just buying key books and sitting on them for several years.

Agree 100%

[mackenzie999]

I think reasons for buying comics falls into an overlapping Venn diagram. There are readers, collectors, dealers, speculators, trendies (not really into comics but loves Rick & Morty so buys some), etc. I think most of us fall into more than one of those categories and see no reason to apply a label. How many collectors have never sold a book? 

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, TheFifthHorseman said:

4 hours ago, 1Cool said:

why not use some knowledge and guessing to hopefully make more money then just buying key books and sitting on them for several years.

Agree 100%

Disagree 100% 

Unless you are able to day trade your books and miraculously time the shifting winds of the comic book market perfectly, it's just as easy to lose money on these highly speculative and hyped books as it is to make money on them. 

[ygogolak]

51 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Disagree 100% 

Unless you are able to day trade your books and miraculously time the shifting winds of the comic book market perfectly, it's just as easy to lose money on these highly speculative and hyped books as it is to make money on them. 

Yea, same with the stock market. Yet some people make a living off it.

[lou_fine]

15 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

Disagree 100% 

Unless you are able to day trade your books and miraculously time the shifting winds of the comic book market perfectly, it's just as easy to lose money on these highly speculative and hyped books as it is to make money on them. 

Yea, same with the stock market. Yet some people make a living off it.

Yes, most definitely. 

And then you've got investors like Warren Buffet who acts more like a collector and seemingly holds onto some of their stocks for decades. 

[TheFifthHorseman]

2 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Disagree 100% 

Unless you are able to day trade your books and miraculously time the shifting winds of the comic book market perfectly, it's just as easy to lose money on these highly speculative and hyped books as it is to make money on them. 

Agree 200%! 

One can make it just as fast as they can lose it. You're right: you gotta be ON TOP of buying/selling as a speculator...the market will change in an instant

[Mercury Man]

5 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Also,their variant cover market also looks interesting

Don't do it man....don't do it...

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 minutes ago, Mercury Man said:

Don't do it man....don't do it...

Dell'Otto  covers! 

[lou_fine]

6 hours ago, ygogolak said:

There's time to buy books before they hit peaks. Many on here understand that curve and know when to buy and when to sell. Like @1Cool said, you shouldn't be buying high dollar for a 5% return. A book like The Inhumans there was plenty of time to get in and get out.

 

6 hours ago, 1Cool said:

Timing is key for any speculation be it buying land cheap or stocks or comic books.

 

5 hours ago, TheFifthHorseman said:

8 hours ago, 1Cool said:

why not use some knowledge and guessing to hopefully make more money then just buying key books and sitting on them for several years.

Agree 100%

 

2 hours ago, TheFifthHorseman said:

4 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Disagree 100% 

Unless you are able to day trade your books and miraculously time the shifting winds of the comic book market perfectly, it's just as easy to lose money on these highly speculative and hyped books as it is to make money on them. 

Agree 200%! 

One can make it just as fast as they can lose it. You're right: you gotta be ON TOP of buying/selling as a speculator...the market will change in an instant

Well, from this discussion here, it's quite clear to me that I must not be a speculator then.  Especially since I tend to sit on my books for not only several years, but rather for many decades.  Yep, got in way back then on the first handful of issues for the Marvel Inhumans series and even some of their earlier run in the Adams portion of the Amazing Adventures series, but didn't get off the boat in time when it was cresting the past couple of years.  Even though I knew it was a good time to sell, I guess I must be more of a collector since I just find it so hard to let something go from my collection.

Actually, I would hate to be a speculator because it's really all about timing the market which I believe is probably more difficult than it sounds.  I much prefer being a collector which is really more about spending time in the market and definitely a much more enjoyable task to undertake. 

Edited October 13, 2017 by lou_fine

[TheFifthHorseman]

Just now, ComicConnoisseur said:

Dell'Otto  covers! 

@ComicConnoisseur Last year, hah, get a kick out of this...

Well, I won't give it away (perhaps a board member) but I spent well over 2k on a CGC 9.9 Dell'Otto sometime last year. I never got the book in hand - something about a reslab from cgc and was taking forever. Anyway he charged me a 10% restock for a refund but I got most of the money back.

I feel like I dodged a bullet.

[TheFifthHorseman]

9 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Well, from this discussion here, it's quite clear to me that I must not be a speculator then.  Especially since I tend to sit on my books for not only several years, but rather for many decades

I'm a bit of both of say. I love my GA and nobody will pry that stuff from my cold lifeless fingers.

But flipping books is quite...exhilirating. I've lost a little bit and have made a little bit flipping moderns and variants. Most of the time I break even.

I have pretty good taste so most of the covers I pick out do well. But that's just it - moderns are about the C O V E R S. Treat them like bartering chips...trading cards.

And dump 'em on someone else 

 

Edit: to add, I'd say you can expect that the QUALITY of your listing and the way you market yourself will affect the final value of a sale on eBay- probably by about 10-15% at least. I see people taking the most ridiculous pictures and writing the worst headlines.

They are your competition and if you can set yourself apart from them and stay ahead of the curve you can make some $$$

Edited October 13, 2017 by TheFifthHorseman

[ygogolak]

11 hours ago, lou_fine said:

 

 

 

Well, from this discussion here, it's quite clear to me that I must not be a speculator then.  Especially since I tend to sit on my books for not only several years, but rather for many decades.  Yep, got in way back then on the first handful of issues for the Marvel Inhumans series and even some of their earlier run in the Adams portion of the Amazing Adventures series, but didn't get off the boat in time when it was cresting the past couple of years.  Even though I knew it was a good time to sell, I guess I must be more of a collector since I just find it so hard to let something go from my collection.

Actually, I would hate to be a speculator because it's really all about timing the market which I believe is probably more difficult than it sounds.  I much prefer being a collector which is really more about spending time in the market and definitely a much more enjoyable task to undertake. 

Sounds like you understand how the current market works. It has evolved a lot in the past 5 years even. And yes, if you have a hard time selling, those are in your collection and that's normal for me as well. Although, sometimes things get so out of hand that I say "I'll sell for that price. I can buy another one in two years for a lot less."

[slg343]

I think I can answer the original question with my personal experience.  I am a non speculator that became a speculator by default because I really enjoy buying lots from people and digging into comic books.  I love the sorting, looking up prices ect.  With that said I got to a point where I decided I wanted a smaller collection that was higher end items in a clean space.  So to balance the two joys I still buy lots but I buy them to sell and will often hold some items I.E. my handful of NM87 until I think its a good time to sell and I will offload the rest below value till a break even on the lot.  I enjoy it and have gotten some great finds.