BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD) 4 4

[Bosco685]

[Bosco685]

Disney has increased the theater distribution from 4,160 to 4,275.

[drotto]

On 7/22/2021 at 5:25 PM, Bosco685 said:

Disney has increased the theater distribution from 4,160 to 4,275.

When theaters are not anywhere near full, how does this help?

[Bosco685]

On 7/23/2021 at 9:20 AM, drotto said:

When theaters are not anywhere near full, how does this help?

I agree. It looks like they are spreading out the theater coverage most probably in the hopes of gaining higher revenue results. Regardless of the revenue share and expenses behind the scenes.

So all an image attempt to bump the box office results.

Edited July 23, 2021 by Bosco685

[Bosco685]

Box Office Mojo finally posted Wednesday results, including a tiny update to the international results to date.

[Bosco685]

Ahh. I get the Disney strategy now.

When you have competing films coming out at the same time, you gobble up more screens to crowd them out for a while. But now Disney is pulling back on the theater count after a solid week of expanding its coverage.

Theater counts: Black Widow fends off Snake Eyes and Old for top billing

Quote

Black Widow once again leads our theater count list this week despite taking a backseat at the box office to Space Jam: A New Legacy last weekend. The former enters its third week with a domestic total of over $140M and a worldwide total of $272M. The latest Marvel film drops from 4,275 to 4,250 locations beginning Friday. While we don’t have an official theater count for Space Jam: A New Legacy, we are estimating the sophomore feature to be in 4,000 theaters. The live action/animated hybrid sequel starring LeBron James and Bugs Bunny scored a better-than-expected $31M during its opening weekend, positioning itself as the number one movie of the week.

Two wide releases debut this week to challenge last week’s films: Old and Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins, which arrive in 3,355 and 3,521 locations respectively. Old is the latest film helmed by writer and director, M. Night Shyamalan and his first film since 2019’s Glass, which took in $236M worldwide during its run. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins, with a budget of $88M, traces the beginnings of the popular G.I. Joe character and contains a flurry stars including Henry Golding, Andrew Koji and Haruka Abe to name a few. Rounding out the top five is F9: The Fast Saga, in 2,850 theaters and Escape Room: Tournament of Champions, playing in 2,815 locations…

 

Another wide release hits cinemas this week in the Mark Wahlberg drama Joe Bell. The film, based on a true story, showcases Wahlberg as an Oregonian father who sets out on a walk across America after the suicide of his bullied gay son, hoping to promote awareness about the consequences of bullying. Reid Miller and Connie Britton star as Walhberg’s on-screen son and wife. Joe Bell is being released by Roadside Attractions in 1,094 locations.

 

Looking ahead to next week we see the release of Walt Disney's, Jungle Cruise in an estimated 4,000 theaters. The film, set in the early 20th century, stars Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt, and is based on the popular Disney theme park attraction of the same name. The other wide release opening next week is the Matt Damon feature, Stillwater. The film, which Damon co-stars in with Abigail Breslin and Camille Cottin debuts in an estimated 2,400 locations…

 

[fantastic_four]

Two things confuse me about the location counts:

• I used to assume those were screen counts, so that if one theatre is showing a movie on 5 screens that theatre adds 5 to the count.  Does each theatre just count once no matter how many screens they're showing a movie on?
• Don't theatres decide for themselves whether or not to show a movie?  The talk about Disney deciding to increase or decrease theatre counts confuses me.  What is the implication there--that Disney is lying about the numbers, or that they're bullying theatres into showing their movies?

[Bosco685]

On 7/23/2021 at 10:02 AM, fantastic_four said:

Two things confuse me about the location counts:

• I used to assume those were screen counts, so that if one theatre is showing a movie on 5 screens that theatre adds 5 to the count.  Does each theatre just count once no matter how many screens they're showing a movie on?
• Don't theatres decide for themselves whether or not to show a movie?  The talk about Disney deciding to increase or decrease theatre counts confuses me.  What is the implication there--that Disney is lying about the numbers, or that they're bullying theatres into showing their movies?

A good example of how major studios (Disney being one of the most powerful) influence theater chain decisions is release contracts and clauses.

Disney Lays Down the Law for Theaters on ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’

Quote

Before exhibitors can begin screening “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” this December, they must first commit to a set of top-secret terms that numerous theater owners say are the most onerous they have ever seen. Disney will receive about 65% of ticket revenue from the film, a new high for a Hollywood studio. Disney is also requiring theaters to show the movie in their largest auditorium for at least four weeks.

 

Ignoring the terms carries an unusual penalty. If a theater violates any condition of the distribution agreement, Disney can take an additional 5% cut, bringing the studio’s total haul to 70% of sales on a movie likely to gross more than $500 million at the domestic box office.

 

Few operators can afford to turn away a Disney windfall. But some independent theaters have decided against screening “Last Jedi” when it is released, saying the company’s disproportionate share of ticket sales and four-week hold make little economic sense—especially in small towns.

 

“There’s a finite number of moviegoers in my market, and I can service all of them in a couple of weeks,” said Lee Akin, who operates a single-screen theater in Elkader, Iowa (population: 1,213).

 

If he were to sign up for the movie under Disney’s terms, Mr. Akin said he would be stuck playing “Last Jedi” to near-empty auditoriums toward the end of a month-long run while still giving Disney 65% of those paltry sales. The studio is applying the 65% split across all weeks of the film’s release, rather than some studios’ practice of beginning a split at a high figure and then lowering it in subsequent weeks.

 

“When [studios] get much bigger than the other guys, that’s when all these wacky rules come into place,” said Mr. Akin.

 

Disney’s rules on “Star Wars” begin before tickets are available online, with the studio outlining presale terms to theaters in contracts that are individually watermarked to prevent exhibitors from leaking them.

So in advance of a major film release, not only can the studio dictate special revenue share terms. It can also dictate flexibility when it comes to increasing/decreasing screen/location counts. Or else they will not release the movie for screening at your theater. TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT!

So picture that type approach during a pandemic (or even somewhat post-pandemic) environment where theaters are even weaker with their bargaining power concerning a major studio. How much pushback are you going to offer to a powerhouse like Disney??

Edited July 23, 2021 by Bosco685

[Gatsby77]

On 7/23/2021 at 10:39 AM, Bosco685 said:

A good example of how major studios (Disney being one of the most powerful) influence theater chain decisions is release contracts and clauses.

Disney Lays Down the Law for Theaters on ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’

So in advance of a major film release, not only can the studio dictate special revenue share terms. It can also dictate flexibility when it comes to increasing/decreasing screen/location counts. Or else they will not release the movie for screening at your theater. TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT!

Yeah - we've seen that before. The pre-contractual demands for the Star Wars film are well-known.

But I'm with Fantastic Four here. The contracts I've seen simply mandate that theaters are locked in from Day 1 - Day 14 -- that they cannot reduce the number of screens showing the film on opening night until fully two weeks later.

If the number of screens increases throughout the run, it's almost always due to the theater owners themselves. Particularly because the box office revenue shifts from favoring the film studio to favoring the actual theater venue beginning with week 3.

TL/DR: The increase in screens is almost certainly on the theater venues themselves, not on Disney.

[Bosco685]

On 7/23/2021 at 10:46 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Yeah - we've seen that before. The pre-contractual demands for the Star Wars film are well-known.

But I'm with Fantastic Four here. The contracts I've seen simply mandate that theaters are locked in from Day 1 - Day 14 -- that they cannot reduce the number of screens showing the film on opening night until fully two weeks later.

If the number of screens increases throughout the run, it's almost always due to the theater owners themselves. Particularly because the box office revenue shifts from favoring the film studio to favoring the actual theater venue beginning with week 3.

TL/DR: The increase in screens is almost certainly on the theater venues themselves, not on Disney.

No it isn't: the theaters are currently in the weak bargaining seat as they see industry peers disappearing or on the verge of bankruptcy. I don't care what previous contracts you think you have seen (real or otherwise).

The pandemic/post-pandemic landscape changed everything. To include giving studios much more power with streaming venue options compared to theaters, even if they take a financial hit. There are options to work around theater chains now while also finding new revenue streams (e.g. Disney's temporary rental fee) to make up for a portion of the box office disregarded revenue.

What contracts did you review directly, by the way?

[fantastic_four]

On 7/23/2021 at 10:39 AM, Bosco685 said:

A good example of how major studios (Disney being one of the most powerful) influence theater chain decisions is release contracts and clauses.

Disney Lays Down the Law for Theaters on ‘Star Wars: The Last Jedi’

So in advance of a major film release, not only can the studio dictate special revenue share terms. It can also dictate flexibility when it comes to increasing/decreasing screen/location counts. Or else they will not release the movie for screening at your theater. TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT!

So picture that type approach during a pandemic (or even somewhat post-pandemic) environment where theaters are even weaker with their bargaining power concerning a major studio. How much pushback are you going to offer to a powerhouse like Disney??

I'm not sure of the point here.  Taking the example in that article of Disney requiring theater owners to run a film in their highest-capacity room for four weeks--are you suggesting that would increase the number of locations who run it?  That seems to filter some out, and the article even explicitly lays out how the smallest markets will instead choose not to run the film in a small number of cases.

Are you suggesting there are other different contract provisions you've seen which push locations to run a Disney film whereas they otherwise wouldn't?  If so, what's an example?  I could see them saying something like if you don't run film X with less appeal then we won't let you have film Y with more appeal, but I completely made that example up and have no idea if Disney does stuff like that.

For Black Widow I can't imagine why Disney would need to do ANYTHING to boost the number of theaters who carry it.  Theaters knew it was likely to be a top five film of the summer, and that seems like enough for almost all locations to run it.

Edited July 23, 2021 by fantastic_four

[fantastic_four]

On 7/23/2021 at 10:46 AM, Gatsby77 said:

If the number of screens increases throughout the run, it's almost always due to the theater owners themselves. Particularly because the box office revenue shifts from favoring the film studio to favoring the actual theater venue beginning with week 3.

I guess I could see Disney playing those percentages to incent smaller theaters to run big movies after a few weeks, although it's unclear that's an actual motive for increasing theater share as time goes on as opposed to just maximizing their profits in the first few weeks.  Maybe they view both results as contributing to maximize profits.    The math on that seems complex, although certainly solvable given enough time and past sales data to work it out.

Edited July 23, 2021 by fantastic_four

[Bosco685]

On 7/23/2021 at 11:29 AM, fantastic_four said:

I'm not sure of the point here.  Taking the example in that article of Disney requiring theater owners to run a film in their highest-capacity room for four weeks--are you suggesting that would increase the number of locations who run it?  That seems to filter some out, and the article even explicitly lays out how the smallest markets will instead choose not to run the film in a small number of cases.

Are you suggesting there are other different contract provisions you've seen which push locations to run a Disney film whereas they otherwise wouldn't?  If so, what's an example?  I could see them saying something like if you don't run film X with less appeal then we won't let you have film Y with more appeal, but I completely made that example up and have no idea if Disney does stuff like that.

For Black Widow I can't imagine why Disney would need to do ANYTHING to boost the number of theaters who carry it.  Theaters knew it was likely to be a top five film of the summer, and that seems like enough for almost all locations to run it.

You asked if it is theaters that drive the train every time - not the studios.

The reality is 'it depends'. But the example I provided clearly conveys when studios dictate the terms. To include special revenue share terms. Now picture that situation in our current environment where studios are in the driver's seat and theaters are in a daily shaky financial state. Very easy for the same terms to be forced on theaters with less pushback.

[fantastic_four]

Did this flexing scene from the trailer make the movie?  If so, where?  Somehow I missed it.

[Bosco685]

On 7/23/2021 at 12:51 PM, fantastic_four said:

Did this flexing scene from the trailer make the movie?  If so, where?  Somehow I missed it.

Trying to remember.

Could it be right before he is squeezing himself into his old uniform and the ladies are in the kitchen giggling while he grunts.

[paperheart]

On the theatrical-day-and-date home front, Disney’s Black Widow looks to be down 60% in weekend 3 with $10.4M

wow, there's not even close to 8 legs on that spider

[TupennyConan]

My 16 yr old son reports that his friends report: 'It's boring.'

My 13 yr old daughter saw it with a group of her girlfriends. They all reported it was 'boring.' 

[drotto]

On 4/4/2021 at 4:21 PM, drotto said:

Ok, fair play.  I will take a stab also since I asked you.  I will say $350 world wide.

Not calling this a victory lap, but saying may prediction is looking really close. I know this did not include streaming, which is going to in theory bump that.  I still think streaming will cause a loss to the back end with Blu ray, DVD, and digital sales. Still not sure what it means for the MCU long term, but short term it is going to tough.  It is still a bit wait and see, but both Shang Chi and Eternals are likely going to be under $500 million world wide box office.  The first film that may fair better is Spider-Man, but I think there will be a uptick with Dr. Strange, because that is where the streaming shows seem to be feeding into.

[paperheart]

On 7/23/2021 at 3:49 PM, drotto said:

Not calling this a victory lap, but saying may prediction is looking really close. I know this did not include streaming, which is going to in theory bump that.  I still think streaming will cause a loss to the back end with Blu ray, DVD, and digital sales. Still not sure what it means for the MCU long term, but short term it is going to tough.  It is still a bit wait and see, but both Shang Chi and Eternals are likely going to be under $500 million world wide box office.  The first film that may fair better is Spider-Man, but I think there will be a uptick with Dr. Strange, because that is where the streaming shows seem to be feeding into.

you knew 3 months ago there would be no China; you should see if Feige will hire you because I don't think he did.

[Gatsby77]

On 7/23/2021 at 10:50 AM, Bosco685 said:

No it isn't: the theaters are currently in the weak bargaining seat as they see industry peers disappearing or on the verge of bankruptcy. I don't care what previous contracts you think you have seen (real or otherwise).

The pandemic/post-pandemic landscape changed everything. To include giving studios much more power with streaming venue options compared to theaters, even if they take a financial hit. There are options to work around theater chains now while also finding new revenue streams (e.g. Disney's temporary rental fee) to make up for a portion of the box office disregarded revenue.

What contracts did you review directly, by the way?

I reviewed several domestic distribution contracts a decade ago while writing a paper on movie theater profitability in grad school. One was the domestic distro agreement for Adam Sandler's Funny People.

More than that, I've actually signed a domestic distribution contract with Disney. Have you?

My point? As much as you're trying to call me a liar here on an anonymous comic book message board, I (similarly) think you're simply making up your theory that Disney somehow coerced theater companies into expanding the number of screens for Black Widow in week 2. What's your source for that?

You may be right, but I'm skeptical because - at least in the 1995-2010 era - that's overtly not how it worked.

If films expanded the number of screens early in a run (a la, say The Bourne Identity), it's because the theater owners themselves desired it, not the studios.