BLACK WIDOW: THE MOVIE (TBD) 4 4

[Gatsby77]

On 7/27/2021 at 5:21 PM, Bosco685 said:

What's interesting is comparing theater average value of Black Widow to F9

 

Initially, BW is the natural choice to bring Per Theater revenue. By Day 15 that story starts to change. And Disney pushes BW across more theaters for a higher theater distribution for greater penetration.

Space Jams? The Flash 2016/2018? Hard to say.

Why would you assume "BW is the natural choice to bring Per Theater revenue?"

I didn't.

On 6/3/2021 at 11:22 AM, Gatsby77 said:

As noted above, the Fast and the Furious films have *at least* as big an audience & devoted following.

Stating it right here - Fast and the Furious 9 will outdo Black Widow in the worldwide box office. More than that, it'll outperform it by $200 million+

BW's performance relative to Fast 9 doesn't change the fact that *every* major film released so far this year has arguably grossed far less than it would have if released in 2019.

I'm still skeptical that Bond's release date will hold because of this.

[Bosco685]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:44 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Why would you assume "BW is the natural choice to bring Per Theater revenue?"

I didn't.

BW's performance relative to Fast 9 doesn't change the fact that *every* major film released so far this year has arguably grossed far less than it would have if released in 2019.

I'm still skeptical that Bond's release date will hold because of this.

Uh-huh. Those real numbers side-by-side clarify what is going on between Black Widow and F9.

But sure. Everyone that doesn't proclaim BW a hit is a hater. 

[Gatsby77]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:55 AM, Bosco685 said:

Uh-huh. Those real numbers side-by-side clarify what is going on between Black Widow and F9.

But sure. Everyone that doesn't proclaim BW a hit is a hater. 

Did I stutter?

No one who has been paying attention would have expected Black Widow to outperform Fast 9.

I stated on June 3rd that Fast 9 would out-perform Black Widow by at least $200M globally,

And now a bunch of comic book nerds are surprised when that's the case?

Underestimating the popularity of the Fast & the Furious Franchise has little to nothing to do with Black Widow's performance, and goes far more to your overestimating Black Widow's potential.

[Bosco685]

On 7/28/2021 at 8:16 AM, Gatsby77 said:

Did I stutter?

No one who has been paying attention would have expected Black Widow to outperform Fast 9.

I stated on June 3rd that Fast 9 would out-perform Black Widow by at least $200M globally,

And now a bunch of comic book nerds are surprised when that's the case?

Underestimating the popularity of the Fast & the Furious Franchise has little to nothing to do with Black Widow's performance, and goes far more to your overestimating Black Widow's potential.

 

[Bosco685]

Sorry but I about pissed myself when I saw that last post. Now I know who to envision with such discussions.

[D84]

On 7/28/2021 at 5:13 AM, theCapraAegagrus said:

What about a comparison to Solo?

I'd say Solo was sadly better than both.

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 7/28/2021 at 9:32 AM, D84 said:

I'd say Solo was sadly better than both.

Oof.

[@therealsilvermane]

Black Widow is outperforming F9 domestically even with the box office handicap of day and date streaming on Disney+. But not by much. Clearly, and as pointed out by 1000+ media stories and headlines, Black Widow is not the movie theater industry savior it was hoped to be. Clearly the pandemic is not behind us. Clearly, when given the choice, many folks are still opting for premiere streaming at home.

BW is also a movie that plays fine, if not better, on a small screen. It's dark, has a lot of intimate moments in its story, and not a lot of fantastic special effects scenes. I myself had planned to see it multiple times at the multiplex, but ended up seeing it only once there and jut watched it subsequent times on Disney+. I don't think it's a "must-see at the theater" movie.

I think a more compelling story might have added better to BW's word of mouth. It's good IMO, but not great. It was a movie about Natasha's past colliding with her present with the mission to take down the big bad boogeyman of that past, Dreykov and the Red Room. The mission, honestly, wasn't that compelling. Perhaps because there wasn't an obvious personal element to it. Yes, it made her who she is (not necessarily a bad thing because it trained her to be an Avenger) and destroyed the lives of many orphaned or unwanted girls, but at the outset of the mission, Natasha said "it'll be fun." For this mission to have real resonance and be truly compelling, it needed a more personal stake, other than fun, revenge, or doing what's right. Perhaps taking down the Red Room would also have meant freeing Yelena or someone else close to her/them? That the personal element was actually Antonia Dreykov was too late of a reveal for it to make the mission that much more compelling.

The "problem" with the Taskmaster wasn't that Marvel changed the character's gender, it was IMO that TM was basically a robot (or Terminator) who couldn't make her own choices and thus lacked interest other than looking cool. Also, TM didn't seem to pose that much of a threat as Natasha was able to escape everytime from TM without sustaining any serious injury.

So yeah, besides the pandemic, Disney+ premier access, etc. I think a more compelling story and villain might have helped BW's word of mouth and thus her box office numbers some. We'll see how China does for her international numbers next month.

For now, though, it seems that Black Widow has done about the same work as F9 in regards to bringing back the movie theater industry. That is, keeping it on life support until a stronger line-up of "must see" theater exclusive movies hit the multiplex. And I think that happens starting with Shang Chi in September. Add Venom 2 at the month's end, James Bond in October, Eternals, Ghostbusters, Top Gun, Spielberg's West Side Story, Spider-Man No Way Home, and Matrix 4. That's a pretty strong line-up to end the year.

Edited July 28, 2021 by @therealsilvermane

[@therealsilvermane]

I do think BW's not-so overwhelming performance might also point to the fact that Black Widow simply isn't a Marvel franchise character the way other MCU characters are, and is part of the reason Marvel had never made a movie for her before. From her intro in IM2 to her many supporting appearances in Avengers and Captain America, she was designed as and served the role of an operative, not as an emotional anchor for the story.

Natasha also lacked special effects super-powers, something for the audiences to "wow" at. Not even Super Soldier strength. I know some folks are crying that a Black Widow movie should have come earlier, but there are good reasons why Marvel never made a BW movie until after Endgame.

Also, by making a one-off BW movie to kick off Phase Four, the film served as an extended epilogue to Endgame and not necessarily part of a BW franchise trilogy that doesn't exist, unless Marvel feels a Yelena Belova BW trilogy is worth the investment.

[HighVoltage]

The ideal time to make BW was years ago.

Maybe right after the first Avengers movie, when things were still kind of bubbling...?

I like Johansson fine as an actress and like BW as a character. She could have absolutely been a franchise character.
But this movie is just a weird decision.

Disney knew they were going to take a beating over the box office in that first week, so they dumped their subscription numbers in there as a salve.

I love Shang Chi as a character, but I think it's going to take a similar hit. Actually, I could see it doing a little better *because* it's a new character.

The binding tie with Shang and BW in not having super powers really shouldn't be a detriment to their stories and 'wow factors' and cinematic experience.
Good writing should allow those characters to be amazing and solve problems despite not having powers.
In fact, it should make us want to root for these characters more - because they don't have powers.
To me, both of these characters should be utilized more along the lines of the Mission Impossible or Bond type movies.

I think the MCU was going to pause and plateau to some extent regardless, after Infinity War and Endgame.
So expecting a continual trend upward with fan excitement and upward dollars spent at a similar pace is silly.

I have no idea what Marvel is thinking with Eternals.
Maybe they're looking at it as a complete palate-cleanser with no expectations, since even most comic fans don't know who the heck the Eternals are.
It's a lot of money to gamble... exacerbated by the pandemic.
Don't get me wrong - I'm curious about the movie. In fact, it might even make me like the characters more than the comic versions.

I'm still looking forward to the next Spidey and Dr. Strange movies.
There are a lot of things that have been served up for those movies thanks to WandVision and Loki.
But - mulit-dimensions and time travel are dangerous areas for more casual fans.
Kang is an interesting choice - let's hope Marvel doesn't get things too convoluted.

[paperheart]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:20 AM, @therealsilvermane said:

I do think BW's not-so overwhelming performance might also point to the fact that Black Widow simply isn't a Marvel franchise character the way other MCU characters are, and is part of the reason Marvel had never made a movie for her before. From her intro in IM2 to her many supporting appearances in Avengers and Captain America, she was designed as and served the role of an operative, not as an emotional anchor for the story.

Natasha also lacked special effects super-powers, something for the audiences to "wow" at. Not even Super Soldier strength. I know some folks are crying that a Black Widow movie should have come earlier, but there are good reasons why Marvel never made a BW movie until after Endgame.

Also, by making a one-off BW movie to kick off Phase Four, the film served as an extended epilogue to Endgame and not necessarily part of a BW franchise trilogy that doesn't exist, unless Marvel feels a Yelena Belova BW trilogy is worth the investment.

[theCapraAegagrus]

Quote

Natasha also lacked special effects super-powers, something for the audiences to "wow" at.

Right... Because audiences have trouble being "wowed" by characters like Batman, and John Wick...

[ChillMan]

Harley Quinn, Wonder Woman, and Black Widow simply aren't as popular with general audiences as we're told they are.  And the movies are pretty bad.

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 7/28/2021 at 11:43 AM, ChillMan said:

Harley Quinn, Wonder Woman, and Black Widow simply aren't as popular with general audiences as we're told they are.  And the movies are pretty bad.

You're delusional.

[Bosco685]

So by Day 19 we see F9 is still bringing slightly more revenue per theater compared to BW. You know - the savior of theaters.

But hey - at least Disney is landing a bigger box office because it is running this film across 601 more theaters domestically than F9.

[piper]

On 7/28/2021 at 1:14 PM, Bosco685 said:

So by Day 19 we see F9 is still bringing slightly more revenue per theater compared to BW. You know - the savior of theaters.

But hey - at least Disney is landing a bigger box office because it is running this film across 601 more theaters domestically than F9.

F9 was awful.

[Bosco685]

On 7/28/2021 at 3:53 PM, piper said:

F9 was awful.

Oh I bet.

Meanwhile, BW was no saving grace but more a transition piece to hand off the future.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 7/28/2021 at 11:16 AM, HighVoltage said:

The ideal time to make BW was years ago.

Maybe right after the first Avengers movie, when things were still kind of bubbling...?

I like Johansson fine as an actress and like BW as a character. She could have absolutely been a franchise character.
But this movie is just a weird decision.

Disney knew they were going to take a beating over the box office in that first week, so they dumped their subscription numbers in there as a salve.

I love Shang Chi as a character, but I think it's going to take a similar hit. Actually, I could see it doing a little better *because* it's a new character.

The binding tie with Shang and BW in not having super powers really shouldn't be a detriment to their stories and 'wow factors' and cinematic experience.
Good writing should allow those characters to be amazing and solve problems despite not having powers.
In fact, it should make us want to root for these characters more - because they don't have powers.
To me, both of these characters should be utilized more along the lines of the Mission Impossible or Bond type movies.

I think the MCU was going to pause and plateau to some extent regardless, after Infinity War and Endgame.
So expecting a continual trend upward with fan excitement and upward dollars spent at a similar pace is silly.

I have no idea what Marvel is thinking with Eternals.
Maybe they're looking at it as a complete palate-cleanser with no expectations, since even most comic fans don't know who the heck the Eternals are.
It's a lot of money to gamble... exacerbated by the pandemic.
Don't get me wrong - I'm curious about the movie. In fact, it might even make me like the characters more than the comic versions.

I'm still looking forward to the next Spidey and Dr. Strange movies.
There are a lot of things that have been served up for those movies thanks to WandVision and Loki.
But - mulit-dimensions and time travel are dangerous areas for more casual fans.
Kang is an interesting choice - let's hope Marvel doesn't get things too convoluted.

I disagree that a Black Widow movie early in the MCU's timeline was the right time for her solo movie. It was a different time then. Ten years ago, people had real doubts about investing considerable resources into a solo female super-hero movie. Also, there is no real strong mythos to draw upon for Black Widow, unlike Captain America.  A MCU failure that early on could have derailed the burdgeoning "career" of the MCU. Even after the success of the first Avengers movie, the MCU's success could have gone either way. I think Winter Soldier, itself a kind of "Black Widow" movie, really put the MCU on the right path. Sure, Marvel Studios could have made "Black Widow" instead of Thor 2 or Guardians of the Galaxy, but I think expanding on a character with near 50 years of publication and expanding the MCU into space (the domain of Thanos) were right calls at the time.

Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is not going to be day and date streaming on Disney+ like Black Widow. It is going to have a 45 day theater exclusive run before going to Disney+. That's about 5 weeks at the multiplex for a new Marvel character that nobody knows anything about. I think the Captain Marvel effect will be more at play here.

From what I can tell, there actually seems to be a super-power element at play in Shang Chi. It seems to me the Ten Rings channel some kind of energy, not unlike what Scarlet Witch or Dr Strange do. We saw a giant dragon and the Abomination in the trailers. There absolutely seems to be a strong element of fantasy (and thus strong "wow" type visual effects) involved in the story of this new MCU character.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 7/28/2021 at 11:43 AM, ChillMan said:

Harley Quinn, Wonder Woman, and Black Widow simply aren't as popular with general audiences as we're told they are.  And the movies are pretty bad.

According to the sacred timeline, that Wonder Woman was the first major solo female super-hero is the way it is supposed to happen. A Black Widow movie releasing before WW would have created a nexus event resulting in a pruning of the MCU.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 7/28/2021 at 11:16 AM, HighVoltage said:

The binding tie with Shang and BW in not having super powers really shouldn't be a detriment to their stories and 'wow factors' and cinematic experience.

Shang Chi absolutely looks like a special effects "wow" extravaganza.