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Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot?
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Started by Getoutandstayout,

1,923 posts in this topic

mattn792

mattn792

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Chillax23 said:

It seems like the book is plateauing and decreasing a bit in grades 7.0 - 4.0 based on October sales versus 90 day trends:

7.0 - 90 day= $3,366 last sale = $3,128 (October)

6.5 - 90 day = $2,957 last sale = $3,200 (September) - this sale is interesting as it is in September and (if valid) was likley based on the idea of I must pay $XXXX over last GPA

6.0 - 90 day = $2,746 last sale = $3,217 (October) - I would be interested to know if this happened before or after the 7.0 October sale

5.5 - 90 day = $2,562 last sale = $2,550 (October)

5.0 - 90 day = $2,325 last sale = $2,400 (October)

4.5 - 90 day = $2,194 last sale = $1,900 (October)

4.0 - 90 day = $2,217 last sale = $2,091 (October)

There are a couple of outliers above - but it looks like the jumps of $200-300 over last GPA are disappearing (at least in October) - could just be the season, could be it leveling off.  I still love the sellers that quote GPA, then sell on a fee free platform and ask for full GPA + $200-300 more (with it already avoiding the 7-10% fee that most GPA sales have baked in).  BUT if you can get why wouldn't you I guess/people can ask what they want.

I don't think the prices will decline massively - but I expect a cooling off and maybe slight dip (which we may be in the middle of in the mid grades)

I agree just from casual observation that a plateau seems to be in.  Now I'm hoping to see books graded 5.0, or dare I even say 6.0, and below start falling back under $2000.  I'd buy and hold that dip.

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drbanner

drbanner

Posted
Posted (edited)

Yep, looks like the plateau is in on this book. To see the future of prices of books like Hulk 181, one only has to look at what happened to prices of Hulk 1 and Fantasy 15 after their huge run-ups - not much. The rate of increase is simply not sustainable and I have to wonder how many of these sales are made to dealers, pressers, and flippers who will get out if the book isn't increasing 10% every few months like it has been the last couple of years.

When a NM copy costs as much as a decent used car, it's time to sell and buy a decent used car instead.

Edited by drbanner
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I am not Glenda

I am not Glenda

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, drbanner said:

Yep, looks like the plateau is in on this book. To see the future of prices of books like Hulk 181, one only has to look at what happened to prices of Hulk 1 and Fantasy 15 after their huge run-ups - not much. The rate of increase is simply not sustainable and I have to wonder how many of these sales are made to dealers, pressers, and flippers who will get out if the book isn't increasing 10% every few months like it has been the last couple of years.

When a NM copy costs as much as a decent used car, it's time to sell and buy a decent used car instead.

1

 Does anyone in this hobby not expect ebbs and flows on any book especially on a month to month basis? It's part of this hobby. If you bought your 181 3 yrs ago your feeling pretty darn good about the current market regardless of Oct sales vs Sept, minor price fluctuation is and should be expected on both ends of the spectrum. For example, if in Dec we see a positive spike or record sale on one auction site it means nothing either way. Just watched a 6.0 do almost $2500 on eBay which is consistent & inline with the current market as the book was sold on bids.

One question? What does the value of a comic have to do with the cost of a used car? If you need a vehicle sure you should buy one before a comic no doubt, but its apples to oranges some comics cost as much as my house but what does that have to do with anything?

Edited by Frank Mozz
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drbanner

drbanner

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Frank Mozz said:

One question? What does the value of a comic have to do with the cost of a used car? If you need a vehicle sure you should buy one before a comic no doubt, but its apples to oranges some comics cost as much as my house but what does that have to do with anything?

It shows how out of whack prices for this book have become relative to minimum wage, a gallon of milk, etc. It's becoming unaffordable. If you think "the AF 15 boat has sailed" as you said the other day, and that's probably the #3 book in the hobby right now, then why is this book (that has appreciated over 50%+ in the last year) any different?

I'll post back here a year from today to see where prices stand, but I wouldn't be in any hurry to buy one at today's prices unless I found a perfectly centered, white-pager with a fire-engine red cover and no roller ink smear along the spine. (thumbsu

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I am not Glenda

I am not Glenda

Posted
Posted

 

4 minutes ago, drbanner said:

It shows how out of whack prices for this book have become relative to minimum wage, a gallon of milk, etc. It's becoming unaffordable. If you think "the AF 15 boat has sailed" as you said the other day, and that's probably the #3 book in the hobby right now, then why is this book (that has appreciated over 50%+ in the last year) any different?

 

 

This argument is just so worn out on comics and in general it has nothing to do with the cost of min wage ( if your living on min wage I am thinking your not buying many comics in general) milk, food or a used car if you think 181 is out of whack ( I assume your talking about the higher end books 94/98) then a $50 book can be high as that all depends on your personal situation. However, it seems and the data would support my assumption there are many people willing to pay for this book at the current market value & that even if the book drops 10% this year its a solid book to buy long-term. Good luck on your hunt for that 9.9 :)

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Chillax23

Chillax23

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Frank Mozz said:

 Does anyone in this hobby not expect ebbs and flows on any book especially on a month to month basis? It's part of this hobby. If you bought your 181 3 yrs ago your feeling pretty darn good about the current market regardless of Oct sales vs Sept, minor price fluctuation is and should be expected on both ends of the spectrum. For example, if in Dec we see a positive spike or record sale on one auction site it means nothing either way. Just watched a 6.0 do almost $2500 on eBay which is consistent & inline with the current market as the book was sold on bids.

One question? What does the value of a comic have to do with the cost of a used car? If you need a vehicle sure you should buy one before a comic no doubt, but its apples to oranges some comics cost as much as my house but what does that have to do with anything?

If a 6.0 just did $2,500 on Ebay that would be $700 below the sale in October of $3,217 - while an isolated sale, it would be further info to support a plateau and maybe slight retreat.

I do not expect the book to plummet by any means I just think it is due for a 10% or so correction in the short term (which would still put it at a huge price run-up relative to prices a year ago)

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Chillax23

Chillax23

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mattn792 said:

I agree just from casual observation that a plateau seems to be in.  Now I'm hoping to see books graded 5.0, or dare I even say 6.0, and below start falling back under $2000.  I'd buy and hold that dip.

I hope so too :)

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I am not Glenda

I am not Glenda

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chillax23 said:

If a 6.0 just did $2,500 on Ebay that would be $700 below the sale in October of $3,217 - while an isolated sale, it would be further info to support a plateau and maybe slight retreat.

I do not expect the book to plummet by any means I just think it is due for a 10% or so correction in the short term (which would still put it at a huge price run-up relative to prices a year ago)

 

1 minute ago, Chillax23 said:

If a 6.0 just did $2,500 on Ebay that would be $700 below the sale in October of $3,217 - while an isolated sale, it would be further info to support a plateau and maybe slight retreat.

I do not expect the book to plummet by any means I just think it is due for a 10% or so correction in the short term (which would still put it at a huge price run-up relative to prices a year ago)

I 100% agree the book may be on a bit of a downturn ( after the last years its bound to level off a bit) just to soon to know, I would also note the sale on eBay was on bids which in my experience tend to be apx 8/10% lower than bin sales in most cases.

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chrisco37

chrisco37

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, drbanner said:

Yep, looks like the plateau is in on this book. To see the future of prices of books like Hulk 181, one only has to look at what happened to prices of Hulk 1 and Fantasy 15 after their huge run-ups - not much. The rate of increase is simply not sustainable and I have to wonder how many of these sales are made to dealers, pressers, and flippers who will get out if the book isn't increasing 10% every few months like it has been the last couple of years..

Agree here.  It’s had an incredible run up.  Just like AF15 did and now it should level out a bit.  It’s the “AF15 of the BA”, so it will probably follow similar path/trend of that book. 

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MGsimba77

MGsimba77

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Frank Mozz said:

 

I 100% agree the book may be on a bit of a downturn ( after the last years its bound to level off a bit) just to soon to know, I would also note the sale on eBay was on bids which in my experience tend to be apx 8/10% lower than bin sales in most cases.

This is the problem with a "hot" high census book in mid grades. Sellers rush to auction them off only to end up with a lousy final bid. In that case it's always going to be a bidder's market since mid graded 181s are auctioned relatively often. All a bidder has to do is wait a little while for the next auction.

Imo the only grade that would make some sense to auction off at all is a 9.8 in a high profile auction house other than eBay! Otherwise just have some patience and put a "buy it now" price on it with best offers. Seems like sellers are allergic to patience these days

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alexgross.com

alexgross.com

Posted
Posted

it will be interesting to see just how long the lull or plateau lasts. since the book had such a dramatic rise since spring, more or less doubling in value in most grades, it's possible that values could hold for a few years. but given that this book is always one that seems to exceed estimates, it seems possible, or probable, that by next spring or summer it will be on the move again. i want to get more copies as i know others do as well. timing when to get back in is the trick! 

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MGsimba77

MGsimba77

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, www.alexgross.com said:

on the other hand:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/INCREDIBLE-HULK-181-CGC-9-2-OFF-WHITE-TO-WHITE-PAGES-MARVEL-COMICS-1974-/273519445851?nordt=true&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.m43663.l10137

 

There was another 9.2 same page Q that was a bit better centered that auctioned for 6800 an hour after this one. Not great either but not too bad. There were three 9.2s being auctioned here ending at the same time on eBay tonight which worked against them. Terrible timing for the sellers! Just put a BIN on it guys

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