Incredible Hulk #181 - is it *that* red-hot? 17 17

[drbanner]

5 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Prove it.

-J.

If you had the choice between 2 books identical in every way with the only exception being one had white pages and one had off-white/white pages, which one would you choose?

[namisgr]

6 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Prove it.

-J.

Already proven, from the posts of a set of collectors on the boards who wrote that they're willing to pay more for superior page quality, and from the absence of posts from collectors writing that that they're willing to pay more for inferior page quality.

You seem to not understand that these facts and the basic law of averages proves the point.  Sad!

Unrelated to the Hulk #181 discussion but relevant to this point, you should see the GPA records being smashed by the dozens from the white paged comics from the Fantucchio collection being auctioned on the Link.

Edited September 28, 2018 by namisgr

[tdotcbc84]

3 hours ago, namisgr said:

Already proven, from the posts of a set of collectors on the boards who wrote that they're willing to pay more for superior page quality, and from the absence of posts from collectors writing that that they're willing to pay more for inferior page quality.

You seem to not understand that these facts and the basic law of averages proves the point.  Sad!

Unrelated to the Hulk #181 discussion but relevant to this point, you should see the GPA records being smashed by the dozens from the white paged comics from the Fantucchio collection being auctioned on the Link.

you talking about the past right?  Or is John G F stuff up on the Comic Link again?

[Jaydogrules]

3 hours ago, namisgr said:

Already proven, from the posts of a set of collectors on the boards who wrote that they're willing to pay more for superior page quality, and from the absence of posts from collectors writing that that they're willing to pay more for inferior page quality.

You seem to not understand that these facts and the basic law of averages proves the point.  Sad!

Unrelated to the Hulk #181 discussion but relevant to this point, you should see the GPA records being smashed by the dozens from the white paged comics from the Fantucchio collection being auctioned on the Link.

Nothing has been proven.  Your unsupported, conlusory statements are not "proof" of anything, nor are the generic statements of a couple of people on these boards who you think agree with you.  

The fact is and has always been that no "premium" exists, and cannot be quantified or proven, and even if it could, it would be so wildly inconsistent (much like how CGC assesses "PQ" itself) as to be rendered utterly meaningless.  

Funny (ironic) on how whenever I cite multiple data points disproving your bogus statements it is called "cherry picking". But when you try (poorly) to do the same thing, it is "evidence". Lol So what does it all mean ?  It means nothing. Fact is, even if you ever bothered to produce a specific data set I could easily produce an equal amount of data to prove the opposite, causing the alleged "averages" you purport to exist to be reduced to a standard deviation within an expected price range of sales prices that can just as easily be explained by venue, auction end time, seller feedback, etc, as the so-called "PQ" on the label.  That means your conclusory statements fail to satisfy even the most rudimentary requirements of the scientific method.  Which means your conclusory statements are, have always been, and will likely continue to be, categorically wrong.  

-J.

Edited September 28, 2018 by Jaydogrules

[Jaydogrules]

3 hours ago, drbanner said:

If you had the choice between 2 books identical in every way with the only exception being one had white pages and one had off-white/white pages, which one would you choose?

This hypothetical (and unlikely) thought experiment is a straw man.  So I will answer with a non-answer-  Barring brittle I don't give much or any credence to what CGC puts on a label regarding "PQ" (and certainly not anything in the BA where "white pages" is nothing rare or hard to come by). 

-J.

[drbanner]

Does anybody on this board other than Jaydog feel that all else being equal, white pages do not make a book more desirable?

Didn't think so... 

Edited September 28, 2018 by drbanner

[namisgr]

21 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

That means your conclusory statements fail to satisfy even the most rudimentary requirements of the scientific method. 

-J.

I made my living for 40 years as a professional scientist running laboratories and training young scientists on the art and science of research.  The law of averages is irrefutable.  The facts presented from numerous collectors and major national dealers here on the boards that nobody pays more for books with inferior page quality, all other things being equal, whereas many pay more for books with superior page quality, all other things being equal, combine with the law of averages to provide the proof you claim to seek, but refuse to recognize or even understand.

Finally, I'll add that your attempts to address the law of averages by citing small numbers of pricing examples picked from the GPA database are fatally flawed.  In comparing two groups of sales (books with inferior page quality and books with superior page quality and otherwise comparable characteristics of eye appeal), you are woefully short of the group sizes required to satisfy a test of the law of averages.  Are ten books in each of the two categories sufficient?  Not close.  Are a hundred?  Closer to being a well powered analysis.  How about five hundred?  Yes, power analysis would identify such group sizes as highly likely to be statistically meaningful.  So your comparisons fall flat of being meaningful because they: (1) don't come with scans that confirm all other things that influence the small handful of sale prices you quote are indeed equal, and (2) the tiny numbers have no statistical validity anyway, even if the conditions of 'all other things being equal' were truly fulfilled (which they weren't).  Instead, the relevant facts for a comparative analysis using the law of averages are the decisions made by collectors and the dealers that serve them based on page quality, recounted on these boards time and again.

Enjoy your deserted island! 

Now back to the speculation on the future pricing of Hulk #181.  It sure goes for a whole lot more money now than when I sold over five years ago my copy originally bought off the rack for a quarter.

Edited September 29, 2018 by namisgr

[Jaydogrules]

21 minutes ago, namisgr said:

I made my living for 41 years as a professional scientist running laboratories and training young scientists on the art and science of research.  The law of averages is irrefutable.  The facts presented from numerous collectors and major national dealers here on the boards that nobody pays more for books with inferior page quality, all other things being equal, whereas many pay more for books with superior page quality, all other things being equal, combine with the law of averages to provide the proof you claim to seek, but refuse to recognize or even understand.

Finally, I'll add that your attempts to address the law of averages by citing small numbers of pricing examples picked from the GPA database are inadequate and fatally flawed.  In comparing two groups of sales (books with inferior page quality and books with superior page quality and otherwise comparable characteristics of eye appeal), you are woefully short of the group sizes required to satisfy a test of the law of averages.  Are ten books in each of the two categories sufficient?  Not close.  Are a hundred?  Closer to being a well powered analysis.  How about five hundred?  Yes, power analysis would identify such group sizes as highly likely to be statistically meaningful.  So your comparisons fall flat of being meaningful because they don't: (1) come with scans that confirm all other things that influence the small handful of sale prices you quote are indeed equal, and (2) the tiny numbers have no statistical validity anyway, even if the conditions of 'all other things being equal' were truly fulfilled (which they weren't).  Instead, the relevant facts for a comparative analysis using the law of averages are the decisions made by collectors and the dealers that serve them based on page quality, recounted on these boards time and again.

Enjoy your deserted island! 

Now back to the speculation on the future pricing of Hulk #181.  It sure goes for a whole lot more money now than when I sold over five years ago my copy originally bought off the rack for a quarter.

Of course you begin with the false premise that the alleged "PQ" CGC  puts on labels is itself on labels is either accurate or consistent (which most "collectors" know it is not).  Then you compound your problem by assuming "most collectors" even know what the "PQ" on the label is supposed to represent.  Then you finish yourself off with the same conclusory statements, which you continue to make, with no supporting facts. And you show the utter disingenuousness of your arguments by purporting that when someone does produce facts, they are anecdotal/cherry picking, which is a hoot considering that you produce NO FACTS (likely because you know if you did they could just as easily also be called "anecdotal" or "cherry picking"). But sorry Mr. Scientist, you're not going to skate by on unsupported generalities and conclusory proselytizing. 

So tell you what, any time you ever actually feel so obliged as to produce a data set, I am and will always be ready to produce one to prove the opposite (as I always have). 

-J.

Edited September 28, 2018 by Jaydogrules

[tdotcbc84]

You guys are basically arguing if there is a god

No two comics are the same, can we please agree with that first. (Thank you, I think we all just agreed). - And if no two comics are the same, they will attract different prices.

Some of you are saying White pages have fetched more money, I hate to argue this (because I myself pay more for white pages), but reality is, sometimes, that white copy fetched MORE money, because it has great wrap / centering.

By saying I have done this for 40 years, or I have sold "X amount of copies", means close to nothing, because in the scientific world, it is still a small / isolated sample.  But it doesn't mean you are wrong!

 

So I'll end with this - even if you collect every single sale ever made on a Hulk 181, and looked at the raw data as a whole, NO ONE CAN PROVE ANYTHING.  The reality is, especially this year, the FMV price of Hulk 181 has changed so much every single week!  How can you scientifically / objectively say this WHITE pages got more money, vs this OFF-WHITE copy?  So many other factors come into play.

Now, on a more SUBJECTIVE statement, I do believe WHITE pages is easier to sell, and at times, will command more money.  But can I prove that with FACTS, no.  Just like how you can't prove GOD EXISTS!   But just because you can't prove it, doesn't mean it isn't true.

 

[namisgr]

13 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

So tell you what, any time you ever actually feel so obliged as to produce a data set, I am and will always be ready to produce one to prove the opposite (as I always have). 

-J.

The data set you seek is on these Boards already.  It's in the form of two facts.  (1) According to collectors and the dealers that serve those both on and off the boards, some will pay more for superior page quality, all other things being equal; and (2) Not a single collector will pay more for a comic with inferior page quality, all other things being equal.  Combining these two facts with the law of averages is the mathematical proof you claim to seek but aren't really even the slightest bit interested in.

Edited September 28, 2018 by namisgr

[namisgr]

11 minutes ago, tdotcbc84 said:

No two comics are the same, can we please agree with that first. (Thank you, I think we all just agreed). - And if no two comics are the same, they will attract different prices.

Actually I don't agree with that.  If you think that no two copies of Hulk #181 or Amazing Spiderman #300 can be found with comparable eye appeal and differences in page quality, then I believe you are mistaken.

[Jaydogrules]

14 minutes ago, tdotcbc84 said:

You guys are basically arguing if there is a god

No two comics are the same, can we please agree with that first. (Thank you, I think we all just agreed). - And if no two comics are the same, they will attract different prices.

Some of you are saying White pages have fetched more money, I hate to argue this (because I myself pay more for white pages), but reality is, sometimes, that white copy fetched MORE money, because it has great wrap / centering.

By saying I have done this for 40 years, or I have sold "X amount of copies", means close to nothing, because in the scientific world, it is still a small / isolated sample.  But it doesn't mean you are wrong!

 

So I'll end with this - even if you collect every single sale ever made on a Hulk 181, and looked at the raw data as a whole, NO ONE CAN PROVE ANYTHING.  The reality is, especially this year, the FMV price of Hulk 181 has changed so much every single week!  How can you scientifically / objectively say this WHITE pages got more money, vs this OFF-WHITE copy?  So many other factors come into play.

Now, on a more SUBJECTIVE statement, I do believe WHITE pages is easier to sell, and at times, will command more money.  But can I prove that with FACTS, no.  Just like how you can't prove GOD EXISTS!   But just because you can't prove it, doesn't mean it isn't true.

 

Bravo.  

-J.

[tdotcbc84]

16 minutes ago, namisgr said:

Actually I don't agree with that.  If you think that no two copies of Hulk #181 or Amazing Spiderman #300 can be found with comparable eye appeal and differences in page quality, then I believe you are mistaken.

you just helped me prove my point; "comparable" is the key word.

I have people arguing the Hulk 181 9.9 doesn't look as great as some 9.8. --- And at that grade range, there shouldn't really be too much difference in eye appeal.  Yet I hear people arguing which copy is the "BEST" and which copy is actually "better".  Therefore, there aren't two EXACTLY the same comic.  But I'll agree with you, there are tons of comparable copies.

[MGsimba77]

13 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

It went for $7644.  Just $100 more than this guy's 9.0.

That suggests that his sale was an outlier (for now, at least), irrespective of the random and generally meaningless "PQ" on the label.  

-J.

You forgot about the Clink 3% buyer's premium which in this case brings the total here to ~ 7,875 before shipping cost.

Still a little on the low side however but majority of auctions end up on the low side. Too many professional bidders out there. Anyone auctioning this book is taking a bad gamble

Edit: the buyer premium only applies to CC payments. Assuming they paid by check you'd be right

Edited September 28, 2018 by MGsimba77

[namisgr]

5 hours ago, tdotcbc84 said:

Now, on a more SUBJECTIVE statement, I do believe WHITE pages is easier to sell, and at times, will command more money.  But can I prove that with FACTS, no. 

The Law of Averages.  

[360racer]

I paid top dollar for my 9.8 which happens to be off-white-white. I didn’t care, I just wanted a copy in 9.8 and that was the only one closest to me. At the time (April this year) it was this years high, until one sold for $31k only recently.

[ADAMANTIUM]

20 minutes ago, 360racer said:

I paid top dollar for my 9.8 which happens to be off-white-white. I didn’t care, I just wanted a copy in 9.8 and that was the only one closest to me. At the time (April this year) it was this years high, until one sold for $31k only recently.

CONGRATS! Again

 

[360racer]

17 minutes ago, ADAMANTIUM said:

CONGRATS! Again

 

Thanks! I’m just saying that I don’t think some care as much, as long as you at your hands on a copy and in my case, that’s what it is.

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, 360racer said:

I paid top dollar for my 9.8 which happens to be off-white-white. I didn’t care, I just wanted a copy in 9.8 and that was the only one closest to me. At the time (April this year) it was this years high, until one sold for $31k only recently.

That was an awesome pick up by the way.

And pay no never mind to those few people who are deluding themselves into believing that there is any consistent or provable or even quantifiable price difference.  There is not.  Perhaps they are attempting to rationalize overpaying for books themselves in the past, who knows.  But there is no price difference and there never has been, especially in a book as common as this in the BA where even "white pages" on the label is nothing unique or special.  

-J.

[NoMan]

7 hours ago, namisgr said:

....my copy originally bought off the rack for a quarter.

Did you think Wolverine was a big deal after you finished story? (I assume you read it.)

Edited September 28, 2018 by NoMan