So what issue is the real 1st app of Red Goblin? 2 2

[RockMyAmadeus]

8 hours ago, ygogolak said:

11 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The one has nothing to do with the other. How much is ASM #667 worth? Now how much is the ASM #667 1:100 worth?

You're right. Those two ASM #667 have nothing to do with each other. It's not of value because of the content.

Where as, #798 is.

The point you are trying to make is inaccurate.

ASM #798 is brand new. The ink is barely dry. It hasn't been a week since the book went on sale. Not only that, but orders were through the roof relative to the current market, because Marvel pushed the FOC back a bit.

The value of the Ross 1:100 ASM #798 is because it's a speculative 1:100 AND it's "the first appearance." Those two COMBINED are why it's "$600+." The correlation was drawn because of the character, with the contention being "maybe the dealer is right." The dealer is almost certainly not right. How do I know? Because no dealer has ever been right about these kinds of books. One more time: when a DEALER...who has a vested interested in selling those books....says to speculate, that's a certain sign that the dealer has overbought, and wants to get rid of his stock.

Think of all the books, going back 40+ years, that have actually gained in value over time, especially rapidly. Thor #337. Batman #428. Ultimate Spiderman #1. Conan #1. Walking Dead #1. Harbinger #1. ASM #252. Nyx #3. Captain Marvel #14 Vol God Only Knows 2nd Print. New Mutants #87. X-Men #94. Thanos #13.

Did ANY dealer, ANYWHERE, say "you should buy multiple copies of this book!"...?

I'd sure love to see it if they did. 

No, these books, and hundreds more just like them, caught everyone by surprise. They weren't heavily ordered relative to their respective markets, which is why they experienced rapid price gains. 

Then think of allllll the books that dealers said "you should buy a ton of these!!" 

Spiderman #1 (McFarlane.)

X-Force #1.

X-Men #1.

Silver Sable #1.

Spawn #1.

Youngblood #1.

Wildcats #1.

Ronin #1.

Batman #442.

Punisher War Journal #1.

 Camelot 3000 #1. 

Adventures of Superman #500.

etc etc etc.

Right now, any value for either is almost crystalline pure speculation.

Let's talk in a year.

Edited April 10, 2018 by RockMyAmadeus

[RockMyAmadeus]

By the way...sales for ASM #798, 5 days after release, are hovering at about cover price. That's not a good sign.

[ygogolak]

6 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The point you are trying to make is inaccurate.

ASM #798 is brand new. The ink is barely dry. It hasn't been a week since the book went on sale. Not only that, but orders were through the roof relative to the current market, because Marvel pushed the FOC back a bit.

The value of the Ross 1:100 ASM #798 is because it's a speculative 1:100 AND it's "the first appearance." Those two COMBINED are why it's "$600+." The correlation was drawn because of the character, with the contention being "maybe the dealer is right." The dealer is almost certainly not right. How do I know? Because no dealer has ever been right about these kinds of books. One more time: when a DEALER...who has a vested interested in selling those books....says to speculate, that's a certain sign that the dealer has overbought, and wants to get rid of his stock.

Think of all the books, going back 40+ years, that have actually gained in value over time, especially rapidly. Thor #337. Batman #428. Ultimate Spiderman #1. Conan #1. Walking Dead #1. Harbinger #1. ASM #252. Nyx #3. Captain Marvel #14 Vol God Only Knows 2nd Print. New Mutants #87. X-Men #94. Thanos #13.

Did ANY dealer, ANYWHERE, say "you should buy multiple copies of this book!"...?

I'd sure love to see it if they did. 

No, these books, and hundreds more just like them, caught everyone by surprise. They weren't heavily ordered relative to their respective markets, which is why they experienced rapid price gains. 

Then think of allllll the books that dealers said "you should buy a ton of these!!" 

Spiderman #1 (McFarlane.)

X-Force #1.

X-Men #1.

Silver Sable #1.

Spawn #1.

Youngblood #1.

Wildcats #1.

Ronin #1.

Batman #442.

Punisher War Journal #1.

 Camelot 3000 #1. 

Adventures of Superman #500.

etc etc etc.

Right now, any value for either is almost crystalline pure speculation.

Let's talk in a year.

That's a nice list you have going there. Lots of #1s that have no significance other than being a #1.

Again, content. Not cover or "collectability".

Its OK to be wrong sometimes.

[MGH]

9 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

By the way...sales for ASM #798, 5 days after release, are hovering at about cover price. That's not a good sign.

Well everyone who wanted one probably bought 5 ;)....   Little doubt there was enough printed for everyone interested and their families.   

Will be a matter of which of the variants will be sought after one the dust settles 

My picks are still

795 first print (first Osborne carnage)

 796 comic xposure variant  ( first red goblin - on cover)  both versions probably fine to appreciate. 

798 - first appearance..  limited distribution  1000/3000 variants or 1:100 / 1:200 variants.. Other ratio variants are probably still  fairly large print.   Standard cover will be in dollar bins shortly. 

 

I also reckon anyone holding a high value 797 that everyone thought was going to be first appearance should be selling now while they can get these prices.   

 

But I'm no expert.. 

Edited April 10, 2018 by MGH

[RockMyAmadeus]

3 hours ago, ygogolak said:

That's a nice list you have going there. Lots of #1s that have no significance other than being a #1.

Again, content. Not cover or "collectability".

Its OK to be wrong sometimes.

Yes, it is ok to be wrong sometimes. And that's what you are when you say "lots of #1s that have no significance other than being a #1." 

You probably don't know this, but there was a time when the entire comic collecting world was obsessed with "hot artists." Books became key issues for the sole and only reason that John Byrne drew it (see: Power Man #48-50.) That was especially true for Neal Adams. And it was the same for McFarlane, Art Adams, Jim Lee, Mike Golden, Wally Wood, Jim Steranko, etc etc etc. And when those "hot artists" got their own books, those books were monster hits for those companies: Man of Steel #1, Superman #1, Spiderman #1, X-Force #1, X-Men #1 (the last of which remains the highest selling comic in history.)

As well...there was an upstart company called "Image" that created quite a splash in the early 90's because of the group of those "hot artists" said no to DC and Marvel and formed their own company. Youngblood #1 was the first book published by that company, and Spawn #1 was the second. 

And, of course, there were the books with "hot characters", like Punisher and Wolverine, and when they got their own series, those books, too, were speculated heavily on...not because they were #1s, but because they were Punisher #1s and Wolverine #1s, etc.

That's quite a bit of significance other than merely "being a #1." After all...I didn't include Power Pack #1, or Secret Wars II #1, or Alien Legion #1, or Sandman #1 (which became a surprise hit) and Legion of Superheroes #1, or Excalibur #1, or Atari Force #1, or...I'm sure you get the picture.

I'm also sure you can understand that content isn't the only reason why books go up in value, as the aforementioned ASM #667 1:100 demonstrates.

The point, as always, is that when dealers tell you "you need to buy multiple copies of this, it's going to be worth $$ in the future", then we have cycled back to the old familiar refrain, last heard in earnest in the early 90's.

[RockMyAmadeus]

45 minutes ago, MGH said:

Well everyone who wanted one probably bought 5 ;)....   Little doubt there was enough printed for everyone interested and their families.   

Will be a matter of which of the variants will be sought after one the dust settles 

My picks are still

795 first print (first Osborne carnage)

 796 comic xposure variant  ( first red goblin - on cover)  both versions probably fine to appreciate. 

798 - first appearance..  limited distribution  1000/3000 variants or 1:100 / 1:200 variants.. Other ratio variants are probably still  fairly large print.   Standard cover will be in dollar bins shortly. 

 

I also reckon anyone holding a high value 797 that everyone thought was going to be first appearance should be selling now while they can get these prices.   

 

But I'm no expert.. 

It's possible. It would be nice to be wrong about #798, but history resoundingly says otherwise. I was on the fence about ASM #798, but when I heard that dealer say what he said, I said to myself "hey, I know that song!" and knew that was the death knell of any potential value for the book as it is. When a dealer says "buy, buy!!" that's the time to say "no thanks."

Now, that doesn't mean the variants can't maintain or increase in value if the character becomes a hit. We'll see what Marvel does with it. And it also doesn't mean that the book won't become valuable in spite of its relatively large estimated print run. After all, that number..."250k", or so Rozanski claims...is relatively small compared to the excesses of 1993,

I don't think the companies do themselves any favors confusing the public by releasing books that have "only cover appearances" and the like. It's like Adventurers #1, second print, which contained new material which also happened to contain the first appearance of Elf Warrior. What an odd way to introduce a character (but makes perfect sense to a publisher: it might sell more books!)

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

39 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Yes, it is ok to be wrong sometimes. And that's what you are when you say "lots of #1s that have no significance other than being a #1." 

You probably don't know this, but there was a time when the entire comic collecting world was obsessed with "hot artists." Books became key issues for the sole and only reason that John Byrne drew it (see: Power Man #48-50.) That was especially true for Neal Adams. And it was the same for McFarlane, Art Adams, Jim Lee, Mike Golden, Wally Wood, Jim Steranko, etc etc etc. And when those "hot artists" got their own books, those books were monster hits for those companies: Man of Steel #1, Superman #1, Spiderman #1, X-Force #1, X-Men #1 (the last of which remains the highest selling comic in history.)

As well...there was an upstart company called "Image" that created quite a splash in the early 90's because of the group of those "hot artists" said no to DC and Marvel and formed their own company. Youngblood #1 was the first book published by that company, and Spawn #1 was the second. 

And, of course, there were the books with "hot characters", like Punisher and Wolverine, and when they got their own series, those books, too, were speculated heavily on...not because they were #1s, but because they were Punisher #1s and Wolverine #1s, etc.

That's quite a bit of significance other than merely "being a #1." After all...I didn't include Power Pack #1, or Secret Wars II #1, or Alien Legion #1, or Sandman #1 (which became a surprise hit) and Legion of Superheroes #1, or Excalibur #1, or Atari Force #1, or...I'm sure you get the picture.

I'm also sure you can understand that content isn't the only reason why books go up in value, as the aforementioned ASM #667 1:100 demonstrates.

The point, as always, is that when dealers tell you "you need to buy multiple copies of this, it's going to be worth $$ in the future", then we have cycled back to the old familiar refrain, last heard in earnest in the early 90's.

By the way...what makes anything "significant" certainly changes over time.

Amazing Spiderman #129 is a perfect example. For over a decade, that book had no significance. Nobody cared. The book was just another in the run from #123-#140, priced the same, and utterly lacking in significance...until the Punisher Limited Series came out. Now, of course, ASM #129 is worth gargantuan amounts more than #128 and #130, because the character became incredibly significant.

There was also a time when the comics buying public was in a tizzy about Punisher War Journal #6, which features one of the greatest Wolvie covers ever printed. The book was extremely significant, because it featured the first time the two then-hottest characters in comics met. Now? It's not worth much more than surrounding issues, except to people like me who remember when it was a $25 book in an era of $1.00 cover prices, and can't help scooping them up when they see them in the dollar boxes.

I doubt many people under the age of 30 care much about it. I doubt many people under the age of 40 care much about it.

Edited April 10, 2018 by RockMyAmadeus

[aardvark88]

42 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

 It would be nice to be wrong about #798, but history resoundingly says otherwise. I was on the fence about ASM #798, but when I heard that dealer say what he said, I said to myself "hey, I know that song!" and knew that was the death knell of any potential value for the book as it is. When a dealer says "buy, buy!!" that's the time to say "no thanks."

 relatively large estimated print run. After all, that number..."250k", or so Rozanski claims...is relatively small compared to the excesses of 1993,

I just hope ASM #798 and #800 do not turnout badly with some retailers who still have a long box each of Legends of Dark Knight #1 (4 colors to choose from), Turok (Valiant shiny cover) #1, and X-Force #1 4 cards to collect. My LCS still trying to sell X-Force #1 nm in polybag for $3-$4 after 26 years.

[jsilverjanet]

I saw a lot of Ross virgin at C2E2

one comic shop had a short box of them

[porcupine48]

Punisher War Journal #6 

[500Club]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The point, as always, is that when dealers tell you "you need to buy multiple copies of this, it's going to be worth $$ in the future", then we have cycled back to the old familiar refrain, last heard in earnest in the early 90's.

Things that are stamped as ‘hot’ or ‘collectible’ right out of the box rarely turn out to be so.

[RockMyAmadeus]

38 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

I saw a lot of Ross virgin at C2E2

one comic shop had a short box of them

Yowza.

I wonder if they really ordered ~15,000 copies of the regular...wouldn't surprise me.

[ygogolak]

On 4/9/2018 at 1:48 PM, williamblood said:

9.8 ross virgins are selling for 600+ if red goblin is continued to be used then dealer might be right

On 4/9/2018 at 1:55 PM, RockMyAmadeus said:

The one has nothing to do with the other. How much is ASM #667 worth? Now how much is the ASM #667 1:100 worth?

 

 

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Yes, it is ok to be wrong sometimes. And that's what you are when you say "lots of #1s that have no significance other than being a #1." 

You probably don't know this, but there was a time when the entire comic collecting world was obsessed with "hot artists." Books became key issues for the sole and only reason that John Byrne drew it (see: Power Man #48-50.) That was especially true for Neal Adams. And it was the same for McFarlane, Art Adams, Jim Lee, Mike Golden, Wally Wood, Jim Steranko, etc etc etc. And when those "hot artists" got their own books, those books were monster hits for those companies: Man of Steel #1, Superman #1, Spiderman #1, X-Force #1, X-Men #1 (the last of which remains the highest selling comic in history.)

As well...there was an upstart company called "Image" that created quite a splash in the early 90's because of the group of those "hot artists" said no to DC and Marvel and formed their own company. Youngblood #1 was the first book published by that company, and Spawn #1 was the second. 

And, of course, there were the books with "hot characters", like Punisher and Wolverine, and when they got their own series, those books, too, were speculated heavily on...not because they were #1s, but because they were Punisher #1s and Wolverine #1s, etc.

That's quite a bit of significance other than merely "being a #1." After all...I didn't include Power Pack #1, or Secret Wars II #1, or Alien Legion #1, or Sandman #1 (which became a surprise hit) and Legion of Superheroes #1, or Excalibur #1, or Atari Force #1, or...I'm sure you get the picture.

I'm also sure you can understand that content isn't the only reason why books go up in value, as the aforementioned ASM #667 1:100 demonstrates.

The point, as always, is that when dealers tell you "you need to buy multiple copies of this, it's going to be worth $$ in the future", then we have cycled back to the old familiar refrain, last heard in earnest in the early 90's.

You're really getting off topic of my original point to you.

You tried comparing the most sought after Modern variant and it's regular cover, to which their is not significant content to the story, to ASM 798, which is significant in story, NOT COVER in today's window.

[RockMyAmadeus]

19 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

You're really getting off topic of my original point to you.

You tried comparing the most sought after Modern variant and it's regular cover, to which their is not significant content to the story, to ASM 798, which is significant in story, NOT COVER in today's window.

That's correct. Whether or not ASM #667 is "the most sought after Modern variant" is irrelevant to the point I was making, which is that the reason ASM #798 1:100 has the value it has is almost entirely due to the fact that it is a 1:100....not because it's "the first red goblin." If that was true, #798 would be selling for substantially more than cover price at this point, nearly a week out from release. Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying that's NONE of the reason...I'm saying it's just a small PART of the reason.

ASM #667 1:100 has value because it's a 1:100, not because of its content at all. ASM #798 1:100 has almost all of its value because it's a 1:100, not (yet, or possibly ever) because of its content.

See the correlation there? It's a correlation with a distinction. 

When ASM #798 regular cover starts selling for a substantial premium over cover price...say, $10 or more...then some of the value of the 1:100 can be ascribed to content. But not until then.

Your clues that it won't? No reports of nationwide sellouts. No forthcoming reprints.

When and if that changes, we'll see.Too soon to tell for now.

[ygogolak]

Just now, RockMyAmadeus said:

That's correct. Whether or not ASM #667 is "the most sought after Modern variant" is irrelevant to the point I was making, which is that the reason ASM #798 1:100 has the value it has is almost entirely due to the fact that it is a 1:100....not because it's "the first red goblin." If that was true, #798 would be selling for substantially more than cover price at this point, nearly a week out from release. Don't misunderstand, I'm not saying that's NONE of the reason...I'm saying it's just a small PART of the reason.

ASM #667 1:100 has value because it's a 1:100, not because of its content at all. ASM #798 1:100 has almost all of its value because it's a 1:100, not (yet, or possibly ever) because of its content.

See the correlation there? It's a correlation with a distinction. 

When ASM #798 regular cover starts selling for a substantial premium over cover price...say, $10 or more...then some of the value of the 1:100 can be ascribed to content. But not until then.

Your clues that it won't? No reports of nationwide sellouts. No forthcoming reprints.

When and if that changes, we'll see.Too soon to tell for now.

Do I see the correlation of price not even one week after release from the variant to its regular cover? Yes. ASM 667 variant was not much more than $100 a week after release. So by this logic ASM 798 variant will be worth about $10,000 in 10 years.

[RockMyAmadeus]

9 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

Do I see the correlation of price not even one week after release from the variant to its regular cover? Yes. ASM 667 variant was not much more than $100 a week after release. So by this logic ASM 798 variant will be worth about $10,000 in 10 years.

That is not the correlation I am making. I was not making any correlation between the value of ASM #667 1:100 RELATIVE to the value of ASM #798 1:100, at the same time in their respective histories. So, no, your "by that logic" isn't the logic I'm using.

I am making a correlation between WHY the ASM #798 1:100  is valuable and WHY ASM #667 1:100 is, too.

The example need not be ASM #667. You're fixated on ASM #667. ASM #667 isn't relevant. Pick any other 1:100, and do the same thing. Pick the ASM #546 1:100. Or the ASM #1 1:100 (2015)

The reason any of those books has whatever value they have is is because of the fact that they are 1:100s....not their content.

The reason ASM #798 has value right now is MOSTLY, almost ENTIRELY, because it's a 1:100...with SOME part of that because of its content. 

This isn't really as difficult as you'd like it to be.

Edited April 10, 2018 by RockMyAmadeus

[ygogolak]

21 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

That is not the correlation I am making. I was not making any correlation between the value of ASM #667 1:100 RELATIVE to the value of ASM #798 1:100, at the same time in their respective histories. So, no, your "by that logic" isn't the logic I'm using.

I am making a correlation between WHY the ASM #798 1:100  is valuable and WHY ASM #667 1:100 is, too.

The example need not be ASM #667. You're fixated on ASM #667. ASM #667 isn't relevant. Pick any other 1:100, and do the same thing. Pick the ASM #546 1:100. Or the ASM #1 1:100 (2015)

The reason any of those books has whatever value they have is is because of the fact that they are 1:100s....not their content.

The reason ASM #798 has value right now is MOSTLY, almost ENTIRELY, because it's a 1:100...with SOME part of that because of its content. 

This isn't really as difficult as you'd like it to be.

Sorry, it's because of the content and label designation.
If it was simply because it's a 1:100, why wouldn't you spend less to get one of the 1:1000 ASM variants? A variant with 10 times the requirements to qualify for?

[RockMyAmadeus]

Just now, ygogolak said:

24 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The reason ASM #798 has value right now is MOSTLY, almost ENTIRELY, because it's a 1:100...with SOME part of that because of its content. 

This isn't really as difficult as you'd like it to be.

Sorry, it's because of the content and label designation.
If it was simply because it's a 1:100, why wouldn't you spend less to get one of the 1:1000 ASM variants? A variant with 10 times the requirements to qualify for?

Emphasis added.

[ygogolak]

14 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Emphasis added.

 

Edited April 10, 2018 by ygogolak

[500Club]

18 minutes ago, ygogolak said:

 

Passive-aggressive white flag?