Which market will crash first? housing market or the comic market?

[awe4one]

I you buying for your personal use, or for spec?

 

Personal use...

 

Jim

[ft88]

I'll use 20-30% fall in prices from their peak is a correction, 40-50% is a crash.

 

Keep in mind too that a correction of 20% seems OK and is OK if you own your home or don't plan on moving. But ask the guy who sunk in 20% on a 400k house and now has to sell it for 320k. He just lost 100% of his equity.

 

Its definitely not a crash nor is it really a correction since most sellers haven't lowered their prices.......yet.

[Mr. Zipper]

Seriously, come to Reston, Virginia and count the number of houses on the market. Just walk around my neighborhood and count them. Houses in Reston used to last a week on the market. Now they don't sell for months.

 

This is the stat that real estate brokers commonly use to gauge the health of the market. In my area, average time on market has gone from 20 something days in 2003/2004 to somewhere in the 90s now.

 

Glad I bought at the height of the bubble. Story of my life.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I'll use 20-30% fall in prices from their peak is a correction, 40-50% is a crash.

 

Keep in mind too that a correction of 20% seems OK and is OK if you own your home or don't plan on moving. But ask the guy who sunk in 20% on a 400k house and now has to sell it for 320k. He just lost 100% of his equity.

 

Its definitely not a crash nor is it really a correction since most sellers haven't lowered their prices.......yet.

 

If that's the case, the majority of coastal Florida will be in a full fledged "crash" by mid next year. Property values for a standard 3/2/2 in my area were in the $180-$210k range in the summer of 2005, you can find the same homes with asking prices in the $135k-$150k range now (Note, I wrote asking price...you can shave a cool $10k off of those asking prices easy nowadays, $20k if the seller/lender are in real trouble).

 

You can't go down a street in my town and not see a couple of For Sale signs and/or a deserted house or two.

 

To me, 30-40% price declines over two years with no end in sight may not be a crash.....but it sure is an elevator to the bottom.

 

 

[The Less Blob]

but there is currently an oversupply of housing and people don't have to BUY a place to live.

 

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Well, I don't know about that. In some parts there is an oversupply of housing based on the prices being sought and the suddenly more difficult environment to get a mortgage. There are lots of people living in shacks, trailers, living with relatives or cooped up in an apartment who would like to buy a house but cannot afford it. Maybe in some parts of Florida they built too much, particularly given the employment market down there.

 

Of course, markets that were going up 20-25% a year for the last 3-4 years...a 25% drop doesn't seem like such a big deal, unless, of course, you bought in the last year!

 

 

[The Less Blob]

you can find the same homes with asking prices in the $135k-$150k range now (Note, I wrote asking price...you can shave a cool $10k off of those asking prices easy nowadays, $20k if the seller/lender are in real trouble).

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$135K real houses are supposed to be a sign of a RE bubble and prices being out of wack with wages? Heck, even the $180K prior price is absurdly low. Sounds like they were cheap before and are dirt cheap now. Seriously, what's the mortgage payment on that, $650 a month? At those prices, shouldn't any couple with jobs be able to own their own home and pay the mortgage? This is where I just don't get those wacky tickler rates and other stuff people got into to buy these homes.

 

And yes, I understand, there are a lot of people with totally F-ed up credit, 25 years old with $40K credit card debt because they parties too much and bought a lot of clothes, etc., but it still seems absurdly cheap to me! Too bad my wife has absolutely no interest in moving to that neck of Florida!

[CycleGirl]

Here in Oregon, we've been fairly insulated from the housing market correction or whatever you want to call it. However, we didn't get the boom so housing remains fairly affordable.

 

WRT to HG comics, I have no idea whether we will see a continued rise, a crash or a correction. I did think that some data from the fine art world would be of interest, however. {Source Art Market Trends 2006 from Artprice.com

 

 

Note the nice little peak in 2000, followed by a drop-off then a steady, accelerating rise. This definitely mirrors the stock market more than the housing market.

 

I also thought that these paragraphs were interesting.

 

Driven by galloping prices and a whole new generation of rich

art collectors, the number of over-a-million-dollar sales has taken

off. Today’s prices are in effect without precedent. In 2006 no less

than 810 works sold for over a million dollars, generating total auction

revenue of $ 2.7 billion. In 2005, 487 Fine Art sales generated

fi gures above a million and total auction revenue of $ 1.4 billion.

Until the end of the 1990s only 100 to 200 auctions per year broke

through the million-dollar threshold.

In total, the global public auction Fine Art market generated a

total revenue of $ 6.4 billion which represents double the amounts

regularly posted during the 1999 - 2003 period and an increase of

52% compared with 2005.

 

My theory is that the world economy is creating more and more wealthy people - "Millionaires" if you will. Eventually, the prosperous want to take some of their gains and buy something special. What better way to celebrate one's wealth and status but to buy something like a Picasso, Matisse or Warhol?

 

I tend to think of comic books as sort of a "poor man's fine art." Thoughts?

 

CG

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

you can find the same homes with asking prices in the $135k-$150k range now (Note, I wrote asking price...you can shave a cool $10k off of those asking prices easy nowadays, $20k if the seller/lender are in real trouble).

-----------------------------------------------

 

$135K real houses are supposed to be a sign of a RE bubble and prices being out of wack with wages? Heck, even the $180K prior price is absurdly low. Sounds like they were cheap before and are dirt cheap now. Seriously, what's the mortgage payment on that, $650 a month? At those prices, shouldn't any couple with jobs be able to own their own home and pay the mortgage? This is where I just don't get those wacky tickler rates and other stuff people got into to buy these homes.

 

And yes, I understand, there are a lot of people with totally F-ed up credit, 25 years old with $40K credit card debt because they parties too much and bought a lot of clothes, etc., but it still seems absurdly cheap to me! Too bad my wife has absolutely no interest in moving to that neck of Florida!

 

Keep in mind, up until the Boom took hold here in 2003-2004, the average price for 3/2/2s was between $80k for a basic unit and $110 for a nice 2,000 sq ft model with a pool. Also, the average median income for my county is in the low 30s, which makes an asking price of $185k completely unsustainable for a single income/single parent family. Lastly, Insurance on a 3/2/2 is generally around $1,500-$2,000 a year, plus the Property taxes are about $2,200-$2,700 for a property in the mid $150s. Since there is no State Income tax, they get you on your Property tax.

 

What is going on now is the Statistical Law of "Reversion to the Mean" in full effect. Too bad, because there are some GORGEOUS houses around here that are dropping like a stone and would seem like amazing bargains to you New Yawkers.

[Mr. Zipper]

plus the Property taxes are about $2,200-$2,700 for a property in the mid $150s.

 

That sounds like a dream.

 

We live in a relatively low tax area for NYS and taxes account for almost 1/3 of our monthly "mortgage" payment.

 

Our friends and family in Long Island are paying $1,000+ a month in taxes alone. Guess that's why we moved upstate in 2004.

[MrBedrock]

Let's say we had an acquaintance who continually flips homes because he/she sees friends and neighbors moving on up.

This acquaintance buys and sells home simply to keep up appearances among friends and neighbors.

He/she buys a home not out of any love of the house itself, but only because others seem to desire the same type of house.

This is what we call homebuying ADD.

 

If you are guilty of this type of behavior.....

That is the reason your house blows!

[Blind Owl]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

[Paratrooper]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

 

Not for me, my house I bought 5 years has appreciated $50k+, just had it appraised when all this housing market crashing hoopla started going around. I think it depends the location where you bought your house.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Let's say we had an acquaintance who continually flips homes because he/she sees friends and neighbors moving on up.

This acquaintance buys and sells home simply to keep up appearances among friends and neighbors.

He/she buys a home not out of any love of the house itself, but only because others seem to desire the same type of house.

This is what we call homebuying ADD.

 

If you are guilty of this type of behavior.....

That is the reason your house blows!

 

 

Hey Richard, any word on that Subby # 41?

[Mr. Zipper]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

 

Not for me, my house I bought 5 years has appreciated $50k+, just had it appraised when all this housing market crashing hoopla started going around. I think it depends the location where you bought your house.

 

There's a big difference between appraisal and what you can really get. We just had an appraisal and according to them, our house has gone up $60K in the past 3 years.

 

My wife (a real estate agent) said there is no way we could ever actually get that much.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

 

Not for me, my house I bought 5 years has appreciated $50k+, just had it appraised when all this housing market crashing hoopla started going around. I think it depends the location where you bought your house.

 

There's a big difference between appraisal and what you can really get. We just had an appraisal and according to them, our house has gone up $60K in the past 3 years.

 

My wife (a real estate agent) said there is no way we could ever actually get that much.

 

Especially if your market is in turmoil, and prices are fluctuating wildly, appraisals can come in all over the place depending on the comps the appraiser used. Right now, its a race to the bottom, and "appraised value" can be sharply different then "market value".

 

 

[Paratrooper]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

 

Not for me, my house I bought 5 years has appreciated $50k+, just had it appraised when all this housing market crashing hoopla started going around. I think it depends the location where you bought your house.

 

There's a big difference between appraisal and what you can really get. We just had an appraisal and according to them, our house has gone up $60K in the past 3 years.

 

My wife (a real estate agent) said there is no way we could ever actually get that much.

 

Oh, I know. When I received my appraisal I wanted to know if I could actually sell it for that much. So I took a sales report in my area for the past 6 months and while they didn't sell for nearly $50k+ more they sold for a lot more than I actually paid for the house.

[trmoore54]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

 

ditto!

[aardvark88]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

 

The condo market in the Vancouver, BC suburb area is dropping due to overbuilding. Prices for 525 sq feet dropping from $179,000 to $159,000 this week because 2 new towers going up 40 storeys next to the skytrain/monorail line.

[tth2]

Renting, on the other hand is like flushing your money down the toilet if it goes on for year after year

Not necessarily. It's a simple analysis: take the place you want to live in and do a simple calculation on mortgage payment (based on 30-year fixed, 20% down) if you bought the place vs. rent you'd have to pay to live there. Whichever one is lower is the way to go. I haven't bought a place here in Hong Kong because the monthly mortgage payment would be significantly higher than my monthly rental payment. It's a no-brainer.

 

Everyone assumes that by buying they're not flushing their money away because the money's going into the house, but that's based on the premise that prices go up. If prices go down they're paying into a declining asset, and run into that wonderful phenomenon of negative equity. Plus, the way most mortgages are structured most of what you're paying for the first 20 years of the mortgage is interest rather than principal.

[eddly]

Housing Market has already CRASHED!!!!!!

 

The condo market in the Vancouver, BC suburb area is dropping due to overbuilding. Prices for 525 sq feet dropping from $179,000 to $159,000 this week because 2 new towers going up 40 storeys next to the skytrain/monorail line.

 

Have you been to Langley in the last year or so? Development there is just insane! Wish I had a picture, but some street corners show posters of anywhere from 5 to 10 local condo developments.

 

Oh well, I am renting while I finish up my schooling anyways.