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So, Why Has AF #15 Continued to Drop In Value?
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Started by KEY ISSUES Comics,

1,031 posts in this topic

alexgross.com

alexgross.com

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, KEY ISSUES Comics said:



It's all moot now since the King is back!

if you feel that way, why not change the title of this thread to something more accurate given the current situation? it wont mislead newbies nor others who might think you are confused.

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gadzukes

gadzukes

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Batmanis#1 said:

What is a CGC 6.5 going for these days? I mean a nice copy?

Looking at GPA....... very tough to gauge since there are no current sales in the grade. 

However...... might be able to predict by looking at some current sales from other grades.

The last 6.5 went for $72,000 last Sept '20.

There are current sales in grades of 4.5 ($42,000) & 3.5 ($28,500)

4.5 was going for $27,600 back in Sept '20 and has increased by 153% to get to $42,000.

3.5 was going for $16,800 back in Sept '20 and has increased by 170% to get to $28,500.

So, if we use those percentage increases...... the range in price for a current 6.5 might be $110,000 all the way up to $122,500.

To me that seems unbelievably high, but in this new wacky comic market....... (shrug)

 

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NoMan

NoMan

Posted
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

In this new market I think it might be closer to 7.0 and if you're lucky, a 7.5

HA has a 7.5 OW/W (it looks like some MC on it to me) going up in April. So, sadly, we still won't know.

Edited by NoMan
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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, gadzukes said:

4.5 was going for $27,600 back in Sept '20 and has increased by 153% to get to $42,000.

3.5 was going for $16,800 back in Sept '20 and has increased by 170% to get to $28,500.

Assuming your data points are accurate (from GPA i assume), you meant to say that the 4.5 increased by 52% (from $27,600 in Sept 2020to $42,000 recently) and that a 3.5 increased by 70% (from $16,800 in Sept 2020 to $28,500 recently).  So the percentage increases were very strong but not unbelievably high.   Which means a similar not-so-crazy increase for a 6.5 that was $72,000 in Sept. 2020 could be from 52% (to $109,440) to 70% (to $122,400), similar to your end results.   

Remember:  these increases are long overdue in light of the uptick for much more common and lesser keys, not just from Silver Age, but also Bronze and Copper ages.  It is to be expected, especially since AF15 would likely have increased nicely even without the craziness of the past year.  

Edited by Pantodude
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gadzukes

gadzukes

Posted
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33 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

Assuming your data points are accurate (from GPA i assume), you meant to say that the 4.5 increased by 52% (from $27,600 in Sept 2020to $42,000 recently) and that a 3.5 increased by 70% (from $16,800 in Sept 2020 to $28,500 recently).  So the percentage increases were very strong but not unbelievably high.   Which means a similar not-so-crazy increase for a 6.5 that was $72,000 in Sept. 2020 could be from 52% (to $109,440) to 70% (to $122,400), similar to your end results.   

Remember:  these increases are long overdue in light of the uptick for much more common and lesser keys, not just from Silver Age, but also Bronze and Copper ages.  It is to be expected, especially since AF15 would likely have increased nicely even without the craziness of the past year.  

"math is hard" lol

Yes, I used GPA data, so there could be plenty of other sales I don't know about.

You're right about %increases.  I am always thrown off on my calculator because I have to multiply by 170% to get a 70% increase (maybe I'm using my calculator wrong).

Your final results were the same as mine, I just rounded the numbers.  

And you're also right that a price increase was long overdue.... AF15 has been flat for a few years.

Ultimately, these are some friggin big numbers.

These prices are going to bring scores of Marvel Key issues out of collections and into the market.  The market will flood and prices will level off again.  I just wonder if we're at the top of this current price surge of if we're in the middle of it.

Edited by gadzukes
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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

I just wonder if we're at the top of this current price surge of if we're in the middle of it.

It hasn't even started.  Only the few books you mentioned, and only a few are coming up for sale near term.  Compared to pre-pandemic, it seems like folks are holding on to their AF15s (which is why they haven't been flipped and flipped to lofty highs like other books in the news).  So AF15s appear to be very undervalued at this time.    

It seems like folks are now appreciating the relative scarcity of key comic books compared to keys in other collectible markets.  And some folks have simply discovered or re-discovered comic books during the pandemic.  Whatever the reason, if the number of market participants looking for books for PC and long-term investments has actually increased  (which appears to be the case), I don't see Marvel keys coming out of collections any more than usual because keys should continue to rise in value due to fixed supply and increased demand.  This would be especially true for books that one might consider to be undervalued.  

Edited by Pantodude
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gadzukes

gadzukes

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

It hasn't even started.  Only the few books you mentioned, and only a few are coming up for sale near term.  Compared to pre-pandemic, it seems like folks are holding on to their AF15s (which is why they haven't been flipped and flipped to lofty highs like other books in the news).  So AF15s appear to be very undervalued at this time.    

:headbang:  I like it.

I've still got my 7.0, 4.0, & Q-2.0 so I'm pretty happy.

Edited by gadzukes
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Drummy

Drummy

Posted
Posted

Hey Ralph -

I think that's a good question for any Marvel SA book given the chipping issue.  In my experience, chipping tends to run sales down 10-20% or so depending on other factors like eye appeal, wrap, writing, and page quality.  For example, I think a nice AF 15 in 4.0 without chipping is on Comiclink right now for just under $40k, whereas a 4.0 with some minor chipping sold recently for $32k or so (iirc).  But with prices generally rising across the board, it's really hard to say what *should* be a sale price right now, chipping or not.  Some enterprising person just put up a AF 15 in 4.0 with white pages on the CLINK exchange for $67k....but it has a little chipping.  I'll be interested to see what the first offer is on it...

Good luck!

Dan

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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Wreck-It Ralph said:

I am hoping to buy a AF15 5.0-6.0 as soon as possible how much does the Marvel chipping affect the price on a graded AF15?

Sorry Drummy, but the sales data, especially in the last 12 months, does not support what you are saying, especially with respect to AF15.   MC has had zero effect, if you are referring to fetching then-current GPA at the time of sale.  All copies with MC that have sold in the past year that we know of (and by that I mean sales via eBay, Heritage Auction, ComicLink, Commic Connect, but not Instragram or Facebook b/c I don't know about that) have generally all sold for more than GPA at the time, usually significantly more.  Even recently, the 4.5, 4.0, and 3.0 that sold on eBay and set new GPA highs all had at least moderate MC.    

Even IH#1.   The 6.0 that sold on eBay on 3/8 for $35,601 had some MC and it too set a GPA high by a huge margin.   A 6.0 had most recently (according to GPA) sold for "only" $25,750 in November 2019.  

Edited by Pantodude
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LDarkseid1

LDarkseid1

Posted
Posted
On 3/20/2021 at 3:19 PM, Ryan. said:

I haven't read the thread but evidently AF 15 continues to drop in value. Noted. 

I believe it's actually rebounded some the last 6 months to a year. I've noticed mid grade copies selling for a decent amount more than before the pandemic.

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Pantodude

Pantodude

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, LDarkseid1 said:

I believe it's actually rebounded some the last 6 months to a year. I've noticed mid grade copies selling for a decent amount more than before the pandemic.

OMG LDarkseid1.  You are too funny.  Ryan was being sarcastic!   

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