Are we at a peak of back issue worth/sales? 6 6

[Krismusic]

Well someone has to be buying these books at high prices and its not the Gen x people who have the books... 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

39 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

For now? Yes. For long? Well, I hope you won't need that money in the distant future.

So sell me your Timelys 

[1Cool]

4 hours ago, Hamlet said:

Yeah, I don't think run books are doing badly, all things considered.  They just look like no one wants them in comparison to the hot keys.  

 

Compared to when?  Most Bronze age and SIlver-Age fillers have done terrible over the last decade.  Copper age books have not done that badly but that is because filler books never really had a chance to go up significantly in price.  Considering 70s books are nearly 50 years old you would be shocked what you can buy for $20 in BINs at most major comic cons.  Avoid the keys and most Golden Age and there has never been a better time to be a run collector.

[Krismusic]

46 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Compared to when?  Most Bronze age and SIlver-Age fillers have done terrible over the last decade.  Copper age books have not done that badly but that is because filler books never really had a chance to go up significantly in price.  Considering 70s books are nearly 50 years old you would be shocked what you can buy for $20 in BINs at most major comic cons.  Avoid the keys and most Golden Age and there has never been a better time to be a run collector.

time to buy more ASM and X men filler.. but they are still kind of expensive even for filler....

[Hamlet]

42 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

Compared to when?  Most Bronze age and SIlver-Age fillers have done terrible over the last decade.  Copper age books have not done that badly but that is because filler books never really had a chance to go up significantly in price.  Considering 70s books are nearly 50 years old you would be shocked what you can buy for $20 in BINs at most major comic cons.  Avoid the keys and most Golden Age and there has never been a better time to be a run collector.

Well, I was able to find and buy nice clean VG-Fine copies of later SA run books of FF, Thor, Strange Tales, ToS, and TTA for $5-10 ten years ago.  Now it seems like they are more like $10-20.  That is a bigger increase than inflation over that time.  

Plus, the number of "keys" has increased quite a bit.  It would have been a lot cheaper putting together a run of FF from say 30-80 ten years ago because many of the now key books weren't considered keys back then.  Back then, FF 36, 45, 46, 52, and 67 weren't really considered keys in any meaningful sense.  

[thunsicker]

1 minute ago, Hamlet said:

1 hour ago, 1Cool said:

Compared to when?  Most Bronze age and SIlver-Age fillers have done terrible over the last decade.  Copper age books have not done that badly but that is because filler books never really had a chance to go up significantly in price.  Considering 70s books are nearly 50 years old you would be shocked what you can buy for $20 in BINs at most major comic cons.  Avoid the keys and most Golden Age and there has never been a better time to be a run collector.

Well, I was able to find and buy nice clean VG-Fine copies of later SA run books of FF, Thor, Strange Tales, ToS, and TTA for $5-10 ten years ago.  Now it seems like they are more like $10-20.  That is a bigger increase than inflation over that time.  

Plus, the number of "keys" has increased quite a bit.  It would have been a lot cheaper putting together a run of FF from say 30-80 ten years ago because many of the now key books weren't considered keys back then.  Back then, FF 36, 45, 46, 52, and 67 weren't really considered keys in any meaningful sense.  

I was just about to say this.  Yes run fillers are 'cheap' compared to the price increases on the keys, but they are still outpacing inflation (though not the S&P 500)

[justafan]

yep, the sky is falling...slowly...but it's falling. rewatched Endgame this weekend with the kids and realized 2 things.  1. I am not looking forward to any of the newer movies coming out. 2. all 10 of my nieces and nephews, my kids included, love the movies but none are into comics.

Don't count on their generation. my 2 kids used to enjoy me reading SA ASM to them. we got to issue #19 and they are bored of the stories and stopped asking for me to read them.

the generation that came just before them isn't going to save the medium either as you've already heard from one example on here. no sir, all we have left are ourselves and anyone currently 25 and older, and however long the speculators hang out for.  

I suspect they are not long for the market. Unless the Xmen and FF movies are really good and they come up with a similarly great conflict and villain, the speculators will begin moving on.

is now a good time to sell?  The owner of the Fedreal Hill Collection seems to think so. I don't know their story so maybe the timing is just coincidental.

so what's the canary in the coal mine? 

LCS start closing?  except we r talking about back issues so perhaps when attendance at cons start dwindling? except that comic buyers no longer make up the majority of con attendees.  Perhaps declining dealer attendance at shows? 

I suspect it will be more along the lines of falling auction prices for mini keys, 9.8 filler back issues, and a flood of modern back issues as speculators and collectors try to exit. auction price manipulation and thus GPA manipulation can still occur but only for so long.

Maybe the long covetted and stalwart AF15 blue chip prices will be the first to reflect a shift.

where do most back issue sales occur?  online? at cons? from private dealer sales? 

I give it 7 years. maybe in 2025 we will see a crash in prices.

[1Cool]

11 hours ago, justafan said:

yep, the sky is falling...slowly...but it's falling. rewatched Endgame this weekend with the kids and realized 2 things.  1. I am not looking forward to any of the newer movies coming out. 2. all 10 of my nieces and nephews, my kids included, love the movies but none are into comics.

Don't count on their generation. my 2 kids used to enjoy me reading SA ASM to them. we got to issue #19 and they are bored of the stories and stopped asking for me to read them.

the generation that came just before them isn't going to save the medium either as you've already heard from one example on here. no sir, all we have left are ourselves and anyone currently 25 and older, and however long the speculators hang out for.  

I suspect they are not long for the market. Unless the Xmen and FF movies are really good and they come up with a similarly great conflict and villain, the speculators will begin moving on.

is now a good time to sell?  The owner of the Fedreal Hill Collection seems to think so. I don't know their story so maybe the timing is just coincidental.

so what's the canary in the coal mine? 

LCS start closing?  except we r talking about back issues so perhaps when attendance at cons start dwindling? except that comic buyers no longer make up the majority of con attendees.  Perhaps declining dealer attendance at shows? 

I suspect it will be more along the lines of falling auction prices for mini keys, 9.8 filler back issues, and a flood of modern back issues as speculators and collectors try to exit. auction price manipulation and thus GPA manipulation can still occur but only for so long.

Maybe the long covetted and stalwart AF15 blue chip prices will be the first to reflect a shift.

where do most back issue sales occur?  online? at cons? from private dealer sales? 

I give it 7 years. maybe in 2025 we will see a crash in prices.

I think the biggest indication of a "crash" will be the number of e-bay auctions.  If that number skyrockets (especially if the number of $0.99 auctions jump up) you will know people are blowing out books.  Take a look what books are in the $2 / $5 boxes at Cons and you get a clear indication of how desperate dealers are to move stock and possibly sell at nearly no profit.  I'm in no way saying there is a crash going on but saying younger people will pick up comic books as they get older and stop a decline in prices over the next couple decades is just shortsighted.

Why 6 or 7 years for a crash?  I represent a big chunk of the collectors right now (45 years old) and I'll only be 52 in 7 years.  The older baby boomers will unfortunately being leaving us in droves in the next 10 years but there seems to be a ton of us mid 40 year olds to pick up the slack.  Speculators leaving will bring down the prices of mini key books like X-Men 221 or FF 67 but the true keys books like X-Men 1 or FF 1 should do just fine if the speculators leave.  I think we will have to look out 15 - 20 years to really see a "crash" in prices since most of the baby boomers will have left us and my generation will be full swing gearing up for retirement. 

[WolverineX]

9 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

I think the biggest indication of a "crash" will be the number of e-bay auctions.  If that number skyrockets (especially if the number of $0.99 auctions jump up) you will know people are blowing out books.  Take a look what books are in the $2 / $5 boxes at Cons and you get a clear indication of how desperate dealers are to move stock and possibly sell at nearly no profit.  I'm in no way saying there is a crash going on but saying younger people will pick up comic books as they get older and stop a decline in prices over the next couple decades is just shortsighted.

Why 6 or 7 years for a crash?  I represent a big chunk of the collectors right now (45 years old) and I'll only be 52 in 7 years.  The older baby boomers will unfortunately being leaving us in droves in the next 10 years but there seems to be a ton of us mid 40 year olds to pick up the slack.  Speculators leaving will bring down the prices of mini key books like X-Men 221 or FF 67 but the true keys books like X-Men 1 or FF 1 should do just fine if the speculators leave.  I think we will have to look out 15 - 20 years to really see a "crash" in prices since most of the baby boomers will have left us and my generation will be full swing gearing up for retirement. 

So are the current 40 yo the last generation that cares?

[1Cool]

2 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

So are the current 40 yo the last generation that cares?

I'd say a bit younger but that would be a good rough guess.  When did the internet really start taking off 95, 96, 97?  A pre teen in 1992 would still be reading comics so they would be what - 36 or 37 right now?  I'd feel comfortable saying the current 30 year olds are the last generation who cares about collecting comic books.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

6 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

So are the current 40 yo the last generation that cares?

I’ve said similar in the past, only to receive a beatdown from high-post-count boardies. This string is starting to take a pessimistic turn, but I guess it’s a who knows.  Maybe the best way to know ones true feelings is to look at the dollars we as individuals have spent in the last couple years. Big spenders are the optimists

[october]

People waiting for a true crash are going to be disappointed. I'll be shocked if that happens. What will happen, and what seems to happen in every other collectible category as it ages, is a slow and steady bifurcation of prices. The vast majority, the 99% of less desirable items, slowly decline in value while the top 1% continue to increase. A small fraction of that 1%, the desirable rarities and top keys, will continue to grow at leaps and bounds.

It only takes a handful of guys to support the top end rarities, but it takes a ton of people to clear the market of something like mid-grade Silver Age Marvels. As the hobby contracts that's the stuff that will suffer the most.

Edited August 13, 2019 by october

[Krismusic]

14 minutes ago, october said:

People waiting for a true crash are going to be disappointed. I'll be shocked if that happens. What will happen, and what seems to happen in every other collectible category as it ages, is a slow and study bifurcation of prices. The vast majority, the 99% of less desirable items, slowly decline in value while the top 1% continue to increase. A small fraction of that 1%, the desirable rarities and top keys, will continue to grow at leaps and bounds.

It only takes a handful of guys to support the top end rarities, but it takes a ton of people to clear the market of something like mid-grade Silver Age Marvels. As the hobby contracts that's the stuff that will suffer the most.

I kind of agree as the top books aren't bought by the average person they are bought by the top income earners people with average or median income usually aren't buying mid to high grade AF15's with that much disposable income. The average person is usually saving for a raining day, retirement, housing, renovations, bills, etc... you only need a handful of people to drive the higher value comic prices and keep that end of the hobby going. 

So we might see a decrease in Filler's (hopefully) or "new keys" but I think the valuable or well known keys AF15, TOS 39, Tec, etc.. will maintain their values or more than likely increase. Just my 

[Hamlet]

29 minutes ago, Krishosein said:

I kind of agree as the top books aren't bought by the average person they are bought by the top income earners people with average or median income usually aren't buying mid to high grade AF15's with that much disposable income. The average person is usually saving for a raining day, retirement, housing, renovations, bills, etc... you only need a handful of people to drive the higher value comic prices and keep that end of the hobby going. 

So we might see a decrease in Filler's (hopefully) or "new keys" but I think the valuable or well known keys AF15, TOS 39, Tec, etc.. will maintain their values or more than likely increase. Just my 

That is certainly a likely possible scenario.  One question I have though is who has been buying the big keys lately, and what are their reasons for buying?".  I wouldn't bet money that matters to my lifestyle on those keys maintaining these new higher values going forward.  I think there are an awful lot of those books in the hands of people that are more interested in their price movement than any nostalgic feelings they have for the books themselves.  There is a danger that those people will quickly lose interest and sell if the market softens.  Add to that people who have overextended themselves buying these keys - they could end up forced to sell if the general economy hits a rough patch, which would probably accelerate the selling by the first group.

I'm not saying that that is going to happen.  I'm just saying that it could, and anyone buying books with 5-digit price tags should be prepared for that possibility.

[WolverineX]

42 minutes ago, Hamlet said:

That is certainly a likely possible scenario.  One question I have though is who has been buying the big keys lately, and what are their reasons for buying?".  I wouldn't bet money that matters to my lifestyle on those keys maintaining these new higher values going forward.  I think there are an awful lot of those books in the hands of people that are more interested in their price movement than any nostalgic feelings they have for the books themselves.  There is a danger that those people will quickly lose interest and sell if the market softens.  Add to that people who have overextended themselves buying these keys - they could end up forced to sell if the general economy hits a rough patch, which would probably accelerate the selling by the first group.

I'm not saying that that is going to happen.  I'm just saying that it could, and anyone buying books with 5-digit price tags should be prepared for that possibility.

I wonder if tmnt1 first print will ever drop back  at that time or is the print run just too small?

[1Cool]

18 hours ago, Hamlet said:

Well, I was able to find and buy nice clean VG-Fine copies of later SA run books of FF, Thor, Strange Tales, ToS, and TTA for $5-10 ten years ago.  Now it seems like they are more like $10-20.  That is a bigger increase than inflation over that time.  

Plus, the number of "keys" has increased quite a bit.  It would have been a lot cheaper putting together a run of FF from say 30-80 ten years ago because many of the now key books weren't considered keys back then.  Back then, FF 36, 45, 46, 52, and 67 weren't really considered keys in any meaningful sense.  

I thought about this and even went back to some of my earliest sales spreadsheets and I disagree.  I use to be able to sell mid grade grade Silver-Age run books for $10 - $15 a piece no problem even here on the boards.  now I have a hard time hitting the $10 mark on some of the fringe books like TAA and TOS.  I can only speak from my perspective but filler Silver Age and Bronze books have dropped in price quite a bit over the last 10 years.

I do agree there are more minor keys and even big keys that have popped up over the last 10 years so the bottom line still looks good.  The market sure seems to have shifted and it will be interesting to see what the next 10 years have in store.

[WolverineX]

46 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

I thought about this and even went back to some of my earliest sales spreadsheets and I disagree.  I use to be able to sell mid grade grade Silver-Age run books for $10 - $15 a piece no problem even here on the boards.  now I have a hard time hitting the $10 mark on some of the fringe books like TAA and TOS.  I can only speak from my perspective but filler Silver Age and Bronze books have dropped in price quite a bit over the last 10 years.

I do agree there are more minor keys and even big keys that have popped up over the last 10 years so the bottom line still looks good.  The market sure seems to have shifted and it will be interesting to see what the next 10 years have in store.

Hmm is the silver demographic dying off or going into retirement?

[Robot Man]

1 hour ago, Hamlet said:

That is certainly a likely possible scenario.  One question I have though is who has been buying the big keys lately, and what are their reasons for buying?".  I wouldn't bet money that matters to my lifestyle on those keys maintaining these new higher values going forward.  I think there are an awful lot of those books in the hands of people that are more interested in their price movement than any nostalgic feelings they have for the books themselves.  There is a danger that those people will quickly lose interest and sell if the market softens.  Add to that people who have overextended themselves buying these keys - they could end up forced to sell if the general economy hits a rough patch, which would probably accelerate the selling by the first group.

I'm not saying that that is going to happen.  I'm just saying that it could, and anyone buying books with 5-digit price tags should be prepared for that possibility.

It has happened in the past and will happen again. With the prices a lot of books are going for, it has enticed a lot of “investors” and flippers into the hobby again. Many have no interest in the books nor do they have any history in it. Locally, I see a lot of younger “flipper” guys buying books at very high inflated prices. When they go to sell (usually right away), they find they are making very little and in many cases, losing money on books they don’t even care about. They won’t be around long. 

[1Cool]

10 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

Hmm is the silver demographic dying off or going into retirement?

I don't think so.  It seems the few younger people who get into the hobby are all about the keys - older people who don't want 20 long boxes are downgraded and buying keys - people who aren't really collectors but bought books for a long term investment see the writing on the wall and sold books to buy keys.  Keys are on fire which means the rest are bargains for people who like to collect runs and entire series.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

1 hour ago, Hamlet said:

That is certainly a likely possible scenario.  One question I have though is who has been buying the big keys lately, and what are their reasons for buying?".  I wouldn't bet money that matters to my lifestyle on those keys maintaining these new higher values going forward.  I think there are an awful lot of those books in the hands of people that are more interested in their price movement than any nostalgic feelings they have for the books themselves.  There is a danger that those people will quickly lose interest and sell if the market softens.  Add to that people who have overextended themselves buying these keys - they could end up forced to sell if the general economy hits a rough patch, which would probably accelerate the selling by the first group.

I'm not saying that that is going to happen.  I'm just saying that it could, and anyone buying books with 5-digit price tags should be prepared for that possibility.

I just bought a cap 1 and 3, a bat 1, and some  classic covers. I bought them because they brighten my day. I’m 64 and looking to slow my career down. Don’t care if I make money, but would like not to lose money