Are we at a peak of back issue worth/sales? 6 6

[delekkerste]

6 hours ago, XxSpideyxX said:

With this sentiment, I tend to agree.  If we look at popular movie genres over the years, there has also been a trend of genre popularity every 10 years or so.  Very generally speaking, cinema saw genres gain and lose popularity every decade since sound entered the picture.  We had romantic comedies in the 30s, film noir in the 40s, westerns in the 50s, rebellion movies in the 60s, disaster films in the 70s, adventure films in the 80s, dramas in the 90s, and superheroes this decade.  Of course, each of these respective genres have continued with spattered success, but nothing like the popularity they experienced in their prime decade.  

So yes, I think superhero movies will decrease in popularity starting now.  But I'm not sure we can correlate that to back issues we all own today.  We haven't seen an increase in comic book sales as a result of the increased popularity of superhero films.  We've actually seen the opposite.  What this means (to me) is that the films aren't driving comic sales.  But again, I hope I'm wrong!

It doesn't break down perfectly (there is some overlap), but, you had the Harry Potters and Twilights and such in-between the '90s dramas and the superhero dominance in the 2010s.  

Films are not driving new comic sales, but, they have absolutely fired up the animal spirits in the back issue market among existing and lapsed readers/collectors.  But, the lack of interest in new comics means less collectors down the road, which is a big problem, as there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the films are a big gateway to creating back issue collectors of vintage comics. 

I wonder if Avengers: Endgame marks the peak of this superhero movie supercycle.  I think it very well might, especially with mostly B and C list properties dominating the announced film slate for the next few years - it's hard to see any of these films doing anywhere near the kind of business that Endgame did. 

[kimik]

On 8/8/2019 at 11:37 AM, BlowUpTheMoon said:

I go to local shows and post the pictures I take.  I revisited a Con Report thread I made and found these photos below, showing young kids buying comics.   I see a lot of people under 25 buying comics at shows.   Doesn't everyone? 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

As I have posted in the other threads on this topic, in 2010-11 there was a huge entry of female collectors and younger collectors buying at shows. The difference is they primarily focus on keys and buy TPBs/collected editions for reading.

[kimik]

8 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

It doesn't break down perfectly (there is some overlap), but, you had the Harry Potters and Twilights and such in-between the '90s dramas and the superhero dominance in the 2010s.  

Films are not driving new comic sales, but, they have absolutely fired up the animal spirits in the back issue market among existing and lapsed readers/collectors.  But, the lack of interest in new comics means less collectors down the road, which is a big problem, as there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the films are a big gateway to creating back issue collectors of vintage comics. 

I wonder if Avengers: Endgame marks the peak of this superhero movie supercycle.  I think it very well might, especially with mostly B and C list properties dominating the announced film slate for the next few years - it's hard to see any of these films doing anywhere near the kind of business that Endgame did. 

Endgame was the peak of the current Marvel cycle, but I think there is another supercycle ready to launch with the X-franchise.

[alexanderjk]

13 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I wonder if Avengers: Endgame marks the peak of this superhero movie supercycle.  I think it very well might, especially with mostly B and C list properties dominating the announced film slate for the next few years - it's hard to see any of these films doing anywhere near the kind of business that Endgame did. 

I can't imagine the MCU coming anywhere near the SUSTAINED success of the first supercycle (even with the intro. of FF and X-Men), but there will be breakout individual films. Before Endgame, Black Panther -- a B-list property -- was the top-grossing MCU film, and it's still the only solo hero/non-Avengers movie to crack the top five. (Number six? Captain Marvel, another B-lister.) I'm predicting Shang-Chi will surpass BP in worldwide gross, which will keep the MCU, and the next supercycle, chugging successfully along (along with Bronze and Copper back issues sales).

Edited August 9, 2019 by alexanderjk

[october]

4 minutes ago, kimik said:

Endgame was the peak of the current Marvel cycle, but I think there is another supercycle ready to launch with the X-franchise.

And FF. 

I know people here are skeptical that the FF can be done right, and for VERY good reason, but I think Disney will manage. They certainly have a lot of failed attempts by other companies to learn from. 

[kimik]

4 minutes ago, october said:

And FF. 

I know people here are skeptical that the FF can be done right, and for VERY good reason, but I think Disney will manage. They certainly have a lot of failed attempts by other companies to learn from. 

I think FF will be fine, but there are only a handful of characters to build with relative to the plethora of mutants (heroes and villains) in the X-franchise.

Edited August 9, 2019 by kimik

[delekkerste]

13 minutes ago, kimik said:

As I have posted in the other threads on this topic, in 2010-11 there was a huge entry of female collectors and younger collectors buying at shows. The difference is they primarily focus on keys and buy TPBs/collected editions for reading.

I call BS on this.  

12 minutes ago, kimik said:

Endgame was the peak of the current Marvel cycle, but I think there is another supercycle ready to launch with the X-franchise.

The X-Men have been around on film for almost 20 years now.  Even under firm Disney control, I don't think the appetite will be there to take the franchise to new heights.  Same with FF.  I'll take the under on all of these predictions. 

12 minutes ago, alexanderjk said:

I can't imagine the MCU coming anywhere near the SUSTAINED success of the first supercycle (even with the intro. of FF and X-Men), but there will be breakout individual films. Before Endgame, Black Panther -- a B-list property -- was the top-grossing MCU film, and it's still the only solo hero/non-Avengers movie to crack the top five. (Number six? Captain Marvel, another B-lister.) I'm predicting Shang-Chi will surpass BP in worldwide gross, which will keep the MCU, and the next supercycle, chugging successfully along (along with Bronze and Copper back issues sales).

Less sustained success means an inflection point has been reached in the overall cycle.  To some extent, I also think BP and Captain Marvel have ridden the coattails of the appetite for the Avengers-related films.  Looking at the upcoming slate, I wouldn't bet on BP and Captain Marvel numbers being hit, let alone Endgame. Maybe MOKF given the potential breakout success in Asia (though, even that's not a guarantee - it's not like Crazy Rich Asians did particularly well overseas just because Hollywood decided to make a movie featuring an Asian cast), but, I'd look for the average grosses to trend downwards.  

And Hamlet is right - there's too much of this material out there now.  The odds of me giving enough of a flying F to watch an Eternals movie is close to zero.  I missed most season 2s and 3s of the Marvel Netflix shows - who has time to keep up with it all?  No surprise that the Inhumans series bombed on ABC (yeah, I know - WHAT Inhumans series; if you blinked, you missed it).  

Ultimately, I think it's the long-term demographics and what the kids growing up in the post-1996 (Marvel bankruptcy + interests being splintered into an infinite number of different directions with the rise of the Internet and global communications/commerce/transportation) era will and won't be interested in when they take over from the Gen Xers that will sink the back issue comic market. But, it certainly won't help when the collective social mood changes and interest in superhero TV and films dies down. 

[Karl Liebl]

4 hours ago, Robot Man said:

I have the first iPhone in the box with all the papers. I also have the first iPod in similar shape. I also have a Sony Walkman. I have no idea of their current worth or what they might bring in the future. Time will tell...

Hehehe I got that iPhone 1 too.  Used it 5 years until it became obsolete.  Strangely it never got scratched and I never threw out the packing materials.  I don't know why I didn't just chuck it.  What papers?  First thing I said when I opened it was "where are the darn instructions!!!!"

[kimik]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

1 hour ago, kimik said:

As I have posted in the other threads on this topic, in 2010-11 there was a huge entry of female collectors and younger collectors buying at shows. The difference is they primarily focus on keys and buy TPBs/collected editions for reading.

I call BS on this.  

Call BS if you like, but I have been selling at shows here in Alberta since university in 1998 and I can only tell you what I have seen over the years. I was more worried in the mid to late 00s when even the first slate of comic movies did not generate a change in the crowd from being older males. As has been discussed in other threads by other retailers/dealers, the New 52 launch in 2011 was a game changer in bringing in young readers and female readers. Granted, Alberta may have be an outlier demographically because of its younger population with a high level of disposable income, but from 2010 through this year it has been great to be a comic dealer (stores have taken a hit the past two years, though, as the economy has waned following the 2015 oil price drop). One day shows where $500 - $750 was a good day pre-2010 are now $2,000+ shows (or topping $10K depending on what keys you want to part with). I can remember doing the Calgary and Edmonton Expos and selling maybe $4-$6K for an entire show pre-2010. Since 2010 that is a so-so one day total.

 

[Karl Liebl]

4 hours ago, NEED MO DAKKA said:

As a mid 90's millennial, I love collecting comics because of my memories of the action figures, cartoons, and movies growing up.  I don't give two craps about reading comics to be honest.  I've only read less than 50 probably in my life and don't really enjoy it.  I just like the characters, the covers, and the nostalgia.  I know I'm just a single case, but I imagine there are a decent amount of others with a similar mindset out there.  I would speculate that it will be more from the current kids/teens as they grow up with all of the superhero movies recently and, hopefully, have more disposable income than the average person in my generation.  I think collecting is still a big thing for my age generation: magic cards, digital video game libraries, books, records, etc.  I see it a lot with people and friends.  I think lots of people are more limited in income in my age range, so they may not collect items from the more conventional and generally more expensive collector markets. I do see lots of major collecting of more conventional items/markets in those with higher incomes at my age.  I'm not saying there will be enough to replace all of the older collectors (I don't know about that myself), but I think there will still be a decent market for it in the years to come. Just my opinion at least. 

I see your point completely and offer a suggestion.  Try reading some EC books like Tales from the Crypt.  They have great art and you get 4 stories per book.  They are like the only comics I can stomach as an adult.  Lots of reprints available cheap.  You can even afford a decent original one if you save your lunch money!

[500Club]

32 minutes ago, kimik said:

2 hours ago, delekkerste said:

2 hours ago, kimik said:

As I have posted in the other threads on this topic, in 2010-11 there was a huge entry of female collectors and younger collectors buying at shows. The difference is they primarily focus on keys and buy TPBs/collected editions for reading.

I call BS on this.  

Call BS if you like, but I have been selling at shows here in Alberta since university in 1998 and I can only tell you what I have seen over the years.

Having set up with kimik over that time frame, I'll second his comments.   Somehow, new52 seemed to inspire a whole cohort of 20 and 30 something women to become customers at shows.  I'm not sure if it was solely new52, but it happened at that time.  I'd wonder if they migrated from the Anne Rice, Buffy, Hunger Games, Supernatural  etc  crowd.

[Mercury Man]

3 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I wonder if Avengers: Endgame marks the peak of this superhero movie supercycle.  I think it very well might, especially with mostly B and C list properties dominating the announced film slate for the next few years - it's hard to see any of these films doing anywhere near the kind of business that Endgame did. 

With the exception of Thor, I agree.  Not sure what kind of excitement, The Falcon and Winter Solider will bring. 

[HouseofComics.Com]

There was the big 2017 dip as referenced in this thread but this year is flat in dollars to last year and down about 5% in units.

https://www.comichron.com/

That's the overall trend for years also--dollar volume flat, with declining units.

My quick take on the movies was that they brought all the lapsed collectors who quit in the 90s back into the hobby. And there were a ton of them out there. But that's kind of a one-time generational thing. OTOH, people are living longer and the rich get richer, so I can see even declining numbers of collectors keeping things going (if not setting records). As for the low end, I feel that the internet really helps because people can more easily learn about collecting and what's out there and it's such an inexpensive hobby on the low end. You can get plenty to read and plenty of books for $100 a month.

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, 500Club said:

Having set up with kimik over that time frame, I'll second his comments.   Somehow, new52 seemed to inspire a whole cohort of 20 and 30 something women to become customers at shows.  I'm not sure if it was solely new52, but it happened at that time.  I'd wonder if they migrated from the Anne Rice, Buffy, Hunger Games, Supernatural  etc  crowd.

C'mon guys.  What % of back issue sales, or sales of "keys" as Ryan is arguing, are made by female collectors, and does anybody really believe it spiked starting in 2010-11 because of New 52 to a level that would be germane to the current conversation?  Sadly, I doubt that data is out there, but, I bet if you actually looked at the hard numbers and not just anecdotes and viewpoints distorted by confirmation bias (go re-read your copy of Thinking in Bets ), that you'll find that this phenomenon does not actually exist.  

Kind of reminds me about the argument in the original art side of the hobby about people's anecdotes about knowing such and such under-40 person getting into the hobby and, thus, the long-term future of the hobby is secured.  Not only do I not believe that anecdotal reports of a 30-something here or there getting into the hobby amount to enough Millennials and Gen Z collectors to clear the market for the Gen Xers, but, I am metaphysically certain that, never mind the numbers, they definitely won't have the financial resources to clear the market at present levels, let alone higher.  And that's not a shot at the lack of money by the Millennials or their reputed preference for experiences over the things, it's just a recognition of reality that OA prices have so far outstripped the income gains of 99.999% of the population that even their present Gen X and Boomer owners couldn't reassemble more than a small fraction of their collections at current prices if they had to.  

Similarly, how many of these New 52-reading new female collectors does it take to replace even one rabid, high-end Gen X back issue collector?  Over in OA land, there are some Gen X and Boomer collections so large and valuable that it would literally take hundreds of new, typically-sized Millennial collectors to clear even ONE of these collections at present market values (let alone assuming prices will continue to increase indefinitely)?  I go to enough cons to see that half of the attendees are female, but, I also hang around the comic booths enough to know that the same half of the attendees is doing low single-digit levels at best of vintage back issue buying by $ volume. 

[PopKulture]

What an interesting read this thread has been! I find it enlightening the number of insightful and well composed posts. 

[500Club]

4 hours ago, delekkerste said:

5 hours ago, 500Club said:

Having set up with kimik over that time frame, I'll second his comments.   Somehow, new52 seemed to inspire a whole cohort of 20 and 30 something women to become customers at shows.  I'm not sure if it was solely new52, but it happened at that time.  I'd wonder if they migrated from the Anne Rice, Buffy, Hunger Games, Supernatural  etc  crowd.

C'mon guys.  What % of back issue sales, or sales of "keys" as Ryan is arguing, are made by female collectors, and does anybody really believe it spiked starting in 2010-11 because of New 52 to a level that would be germane to the current conversation?  Sadly, I doubt that data is out there, but, I bet if you actually looked at the hard numbers and not just anecdotes and viewpoints distorted by confirmation bias (go re-read your copy of Thinking in Bets ), that you'll find that this phenomenon does not actually exist.  

Don’t over think my post.  It’s just an observation we made, and it may not even extrapolate to the broader market.  I didn’t see a lot of key sales.  I saw a lot of favorite character, favorite cover, and recent back issue run buying.  For us, it was encouraging that the market could reach new customers.

Overall, in the context of this discussion, I think the only hope for more of this is advertising, visibility, and quality product.

[thehumantorch]

On 8/8/2019 at 5:23 PM, lou_fine said:

Like the old saying goes on the boards here...................Buy what you love and enjoy, and if it happens to go up in value, then that's just an extra bonus.  

Looking backwards, I thought we were approaching a peak back in the mid-90's when the GA books went through their huge astronomical run up back then.  Yet, look at where we are now after the most recent red hot run up over the past few years.  

As for the future, who really knows what's going to happen longer term.  

Amen to that.  I've been collecting since the mid 1970s and it's been a very rewarding hobby for me.  If my collection has value when I'm done with it that's a cherry on top.

[marvelmaniac]

20 hours ago, shadroch said:

Not yet., but I've read VCRs are becoming a good thrift shop buy as demand is slowly increasing. Never underestimate nostalgia. Every generation has it, only for different things. 

That's funny (ironic funny), last weekend I had to try to explain to my five year old Granddaughter (who navigates a Tablet/Xbox 360, Xbox 1 and TV Streaming Services with ease) what a VCR and VHS Tape were.

I had to show her a picture for her to completely understand and then my Son walked in a said "I think I still have one up in the attic".

[ComicConnoisseur]

20 hours ago, shadroch said:

Not yet., but I've read VCRs are becoming a good thrift shop buy as demand is slowly increasing. Never underestimate nostalgia. Every generation has it, only for different things. 

Good points. The young people of the 1990s remember how their parents took them to Blockbuster.

[Mercury Man]

7 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Good points. The young people of the 1990s remember how their parents took them to Blockbuster.

God, how I loved the concept of the 'rewind fee'.   The last bastion of trying to make people accountable for living in a society, in which stuff is shared.    Now we laugh and make snide comments  at this.   Look at the scooter thing many cities are trying.  More end up getting trashed than used.