35 cent Variant List-Help wanted

[Guest]

 

Do you know of a confirmed sale of this book, Glenn. If so, I'd love to get a sense for what people have paid.

 

Hi Paul-

 

I know of no sales of the issue. Of course I could say that about a few 35 cent issues.

 

I am a bit perplexed by the negative tone towards Motorcity. I explained where I was on the 30 centers. His area was on the receiving end of 30 and 35 cent variants, apparantly. Not only did he agree to take a look, but followed up a week later with regrets that he had looked but was unable to locate either issue.

 

In our initial conversation, we probably had a half an hour conversation. Don't get me wrong, I'm not doubting a bunch of stories from lots of people. I'm only saying we had a pretty good conversation. I felt he had provided quite a bit of information.

 

I would certainly bid on the books I need, though there is only one of in this group that I need..

 

Lastly, Daethwalker and myself did finalize the sale of the last 5 issues that he had discovered, bringing the total of the "Cape Fear Collection" to 99.

[dolphinsrwj]

i do not know a whole lot about the price variants,but my brother just bought the iron fist#15 cgc 9.2 35 cent from metropolis for i think $700.that seems like a lot of money for a price variant even though it is the highest on the census.

[Darthdiesel]

That is a decent price and would probably have been the same on Heritage if offered that way. Now did your borther get it because he is a variant collector or because it was to complete his Iron Fist run?

[dolphinsrwj]

iron fist is his favorite guy and he is just trying to complete his run.last year i got him iron fist i think #4 cgc 9.2 30 cent variant from metropolis.are there any of these price variants that are cgc 9.8 because it seems the highest grade i ever see on these variants are around 9.2 or lower?

[Darthdiesel]

 

one and only (so far)

 

and i thought a forumite beat me out on a dqaredevil 132 var cgc 9.6 white for $550?

[rob_react]

one and only (so far)

 

and i thought a forumite beat me out on a dqaredevil 132 var cgc 9.6 white for $550?

 

sullypython

[lou_fine]

Glenn - it ended where we all thought it would? The Rawhide 141 will be ending slightly higher as daffy and cosmic renew bidding strategies..I'm surprised friendly_andy didn't jump into the mix?

 

I think he did, but those two guys and their high bids probably made many potential snipes irrelevant and came back "below required amount".

 

I know mine did.

 

 

Just came across this thread. Surprise with some of the posters such as JC who seems to have taken temporary leave of their senses and forgotten all about the pending market crash. If a crash does come, books such as these which appears to be nothing more than manufactured collectibles (variant covers, variant prices, CGC 9.9's & 10.0's) will undoubtedly be the first to fall. These are the exact types of books which are the feeding ground for the speculators.

 

I believe the demand for these variant books are rather limited as evident by the fact that we have 32 pages on this thread, but virtually all of the posts are limited to less than 5 individuals talking back & forth. The eBay auctions also does not appear to be attracting a large number of unique bidders. On the supply side, this so-call rarity factor may only be a temporary situation due to lack of information in the overall marketplace. It would not surprise me if there are a large quanity of these variant books sitting out there in collections which owners have not bother to take a close look at yet. Sounds like Motor City's collection for the $0.35 variants numbers in the hundreds. Once this small group of collectors have finished their collection, will there be others to maintain the prices at these ridiculous levels for what would otherwise be low demand common Bronze books.

 

If I was a speculator or investor, I certainly wouldn't want to be left holding the books when the supply starts turning up in the marketplace. Supply can only go up with these types of books as more and more collections turn up in the marketplace. People, we are not talking about Golden-Age books here, where collections are truly hard to come by. The market for the variants appear to be hyped and marketed very well with articles placed in the CBM and chatter taking place in the OS guide. This is the same type of hype which takes place with Wizard and their talk about variant covers or CGC speculators with their chatter about Modern 9.9's and 10.0's. Takes me back to when the Black & White market or Valiant market was just starting out. Which means that there is probably still some room for short term gains through flipping, but probably back sitting in the "dollar" boxes or close to it in the long run.

 

By the way, whatever happen with the DC price variants such as Justice League and Firestorm which all the speculators were talking about and putting big dollars into about 15 years ago? I guess they haven't been able to breakeven yet, let alone fund their children's education or their own retirement.

[joe_collector]

Just came across this thread. Surprise with some of the posters such as JC who seems to have taken temporary leave of their senses and forgotten all about the pending market crash. If a crash does come, books such as these which appears to be nothing more than manufactured collectibles

 

 

1) What I spend on comics now is based on my hobby needs and the issues I personally want to collect. Basically, I'm flushing the money, just as I do on a movie ticket, computers, and electronics.

 

2) Price variants are not manufactured collectibles, and since you hopefully realize the distinction (and are just yanking my chain) I won't go into the obvious differences.

[Darthdiesel]

the sad thing is that he DOESNT know the difference? He managed to insult everythiing everyone else collects while promoting Golden Age books as valuable - now I'm sure he must be on the

pipe

[dolphinsrwj]

hey darth,that is very nice conan variant 9.8. did you get it slabbed?

[rob_react]

If I was a speculator or investor, I certainly wouldn't want to be left holding the books when the supply starts turning up in the marketplace. Supply can only go up with these types of books as more and more collections turn up in the marketplace. People, we are not talking about Golden-Age books here, where collections are truly hard to come by.

 

This leads to an actual interesting thing that I don't think I've seen fleshed out fully here. How many of these do people really think are out there. I mean, OS long ago quoted 500 copies printed for the Star Wars #1 35 Cent Variant. Who knows where that number came from. What would that make it? 1/10th of 1% of the print run? Does that seem like a preposterously low percentage to other people? If that's just crazy (it would probably put some of the westerns in the 50-100 printed range) what would a reasonable print run ratio be for the variants?

 

All that's left after that is even more anecdotal. For example, I've seen, over the past year, one copy of the DD 148 35 Cent variant for sale (in a set of 146-148 at Heritage- which I didn't buy because I was busy buying Golden Age books) and at least 100 copies of the regular issue. Is that number artificially low because people are hoarding this $15 guide value book or are there just not that many out there?

 

I'm sure people could give us similar ballpark figures on the X-Men issues for example.

 

[Metarog]

I was wondering about this same issue. There are just so few variants out there that a comparison to print runs is going to be difficult at best. It is also possible that the ratio of 35 cent variants where not uniform across all titles.

 

I agree that a sample of .001% is the too small to test the resistance to a price increase of this sort. However, lets say the Marvel Westerns were selling around a very poor 150,000 during 1977 (anybody have the Standard Guide to check). When you divide 150,000 by .001 or 1/10 of 1% you get about 150 35 cent variant issues that were purchased by the public in this scenario. When you factor in attrition to that number in is entirely possible that only a dozen or so issues survive until today

Of those dozen-most could be in collections where the owner is totally unaware of its true scarcity. I sure somebody can do a better breakdown than this "quick and dirty" calculation but this seems about right to me.

 

I suppose in those days of newstand returns that 1500 printed 35 cent variants (I'm assuming that 90% or so where returned so only around 150 were pruchased) for a low selling title could have been a good enough sample for Marvel without it significantly affecting their bottom line. This number would of course be much greater for top selling titles such as ASM, Hulk, Avengers, etc

 

Am I totally off the wall here or does this make any sense at all?

 

Obviously, whoever did the marketing analysis at Marvel during this time can explain the strategy behind these variants including where and how many were distributed. Any ideas who that could be?

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

[quote

 

This leads to an actual interesting thing that I don't think I've seen fleshed out fully here. How many of these do people really think are out there.

 

Hi Rob-

 

Congratulations for re-introducing the heart of what I think this board (thread) ought to be all about. Paul used it to help with the census, but it certainly goes much further than the census of what or what does not have a single copy known to exist.

 

Realty Trip had asked about the last 5 issues I got from DaethWalker for example. I hadn't even compared them against the list. Reality comes back and mentions that the Marvel Super Action 10 and 11 are not even on the list (I did verify that they are listed as variants in Overstreet). The question then, of how many exist does become relevant.

 

I had tried to make the point in a post some time ago, that the poster and few readers here seemed to really pick up on with respect to these variants, in general: These were not mass produced variants published to generate sky high profits. They were a marketing experiment that Marvel did not publicize at all whatsoever. The success of this campaign is apparant in the fact that Overstreet did not even include them in the guide as such until OVER 20 YEARS after they were pulished. I think that is the true test of the collectability of a 'variant" type issue.

 

While an argument can be made that "Oh yeah these things are all over, they just havn't been discovered." Even if that were true, wouldn't ONE COPY turn up on eBay that the seller was not aware of as being special, much like the Rawhide Kid 141? Yet prior to these past months, Paul still had over 20 issues that he had had trouble "proving" even existed.

 

Even if it were true that 500 copies of each existed, let's pose a question of collecability. Copies of a comic in NM typically exist in a ratio of probaly less than 50 to 1 of total copies of lesser grade. Why else does a 9.4 sell for 9X a "Fine" issue, for example. Of the 500, probably less than 10 would be in NM condition.Is somebody telling me that only 10 collectors in the country are interested in high grade variants to complete their collections? I think not. Now since we haven't even found one of a few, maybe 500 is high....

 

As far as a formula that might be used to figure out the percent that were variants, one could figure out what % of the market each test city was and combine them. Certainly that would give you a max. Most of the cities were pretty small. So if you had 5 out of 200,just to make it easy, (I have no idea how many cities of size might be in this country without getting out an Atlas.) that would be 2 1/2% IF EVERY ISSUE WAS A VARIANT. Anybody that has done the legwork I have can attest that in comic shops today, in variant markets, non-variants still make up the VAST MAJORITY of comics. Are these all wandering copies? I doubt it.

 

I lived very close to San Jose and it is relatively large. The 35 cent cities seem to me to be even smaller. All this has me thinking that 30 cent variants probably made up 1% or less of total issues and for 35 centers probably less than 1/2 of 1%. This is all quick analysis on my part. I'd welcome additional thoughts Incidentally, somebody on the boards might know Diamond Distributing pretty well. Perhaps they could find out , at least today, what the percent of comics is that goes to the variant markets. Might not be all that different than 30 years ago??

 

For somebody to simply post a note that these particular variant sets are just more of the usual "variant speculation" is just plain ignorance. Let's just call it what it is.

 

Lastly, even if MotorCity has 400 copies. That might be 2-copies each. This collection was the result of almost a complete sweep over a few years of the Michigan area that had a lot of these. At $100 a crack, I think the l;ocal dealers would be finding more, if they existed. So what... did anybody think that the few hundred owned by posters on this site was the extent of the population? A thousand total 35 centers does not make them "widespread".

 

The real joke is that Overstreet still has many 35 centers guided less tha the 30 centers, which also are completely off the mark!!!

 

 

[underthebigw]

I was wondering about this same issue. There are just so few variants out there that a comparison to print runs is going to be difficult at best. It is also possible that the ratio of 35 cent variants where not uniform across all titles.

 

I agree that a sample of .001% is the too small to test the resistance to a price increase of this sort. However, lets say the Marvel Westerns were selling around a very poor 150,000 during 1977 (anybody have the Standard Guide to check). When you divide 150,000 by .001 or 1/10 of 1% you get about 150 35 cent variant issues that were purchased by the public in this scenario. When you factor in attrition to that number in is entirely possible that only a dozen or so issues survive until today

Of those dozen-most could be in collections where the owner is totally unaware of its true scarcity. I sure somebody can do a better breakdown than this "quick and dirty" calculation but this seems about right to me.

 

I suppose in those days of newstand returns that 1500 printed 35 cent variants (I'm assuming that 90% or so where returned so only around 150 were pruchased) for a low selling title could have been a good enough sample for Marvel without it significantly affecting their bottom line. This number would of course be much greater for top selling titles such as ASM, Hulk, Avengers, etc

 

Am I totally off the wall here or does this make any sense at all?

 

Obviously, whoever did the marketing analysis at Marvel during this time can explain the strategy behind these variants including where and how many were distributed. Any ideas who that could be?

.

 

 

 

 

 

It's tough question, that's for sure. I think Rob_React's approach is probably more realistic--the percentage of the total first SW printing that variants comprised is probably similar to that of all titles. I think that the test-marketing was probably more statistically sophisticated than we realize and can easily see a set percentage of variants being issued, with a minimum number of an issue for smaller print runs in order to guarantee statistical power. This way, very few issues in a few small select markets could be used to derive important info. So, pick 5-7 small markets (probably a minute percentage of the overall market), where 1-3% of the books have a different price, and then determine if a statistically significant greater number of them ended up returned to the distributor, and you would have a reasonable indicator of whether there was market resistance. Don't underestimate the statistical power of 1% of 1%; it's how most polling suceeds.

 

And Meta, I don't think the Westerns approached the print figure you are talking about. I know that at most stands and comic shops in NY during the age of Disco, you NEVER even saw a western book. I would be surpised if the number significantly topped 100,000, and wouldn't be surprised at a number around 70,000. The only reason I ever saw them at the time is because I was friends with two brothers, whose dad was friends with Stan Lee and, every two weeks, a monstrous box would arrive at their house loaded with two weeks worth of books. So, don't underestimate the lack of demand--they were unpopular for two reasons: they were westerns and they were reprints.

 

As for Glenn's questions, two things need to be pointed out. Diamond is irrelevant--didn't exist in 1977, certainly not at its current level of importance. And, as for who to ask--I don't think that Marvel or the distributors are the people to ask. I might have a lead and will let everyone know if it pans out or not.

[Metarog]

You make a lot of sense S&B. I only threw our that 150,000 as an example and also because I heard in a Convention in the early 80's that once a Marvel comic got below that number it was on the chopping block. However, the number may be lower for reprints.

[rob_react]

You make a lot of sense S&B. I only threw our that 150,000 as an example and also because I heard in a Convention in the early 80's that once a Marvel comic got below that number it was on the chopping block. However, the number may be lower for reprints.

 

I believe, and I don't have the reference here with me to check, X-Men in reprints was at about 120,000.

[FlyingDonut]

Does somebody have a Standard Guide? It might help to get the actual numbers for the westerns, and also for Star Wars 1. The number I always heard was 4-5% of the print run for 30 centers, but just some quick back of the envelope numbers puts that at 6-8K of the big print runs, and I just don't see that.

[Metarog]

If anybody has a run of Westerns for this time period you can check the distribution statements that were published once a year. Usually around March or April if memory serves.

[Guest]

As for Glenn's questions, two things need to be pointed out. Diamond is irrelevant--didn't exist in 1977, certainly not at its current level of importance. And, as for who to ask--I don't think that Marvel or the distributors are the people to ask. I might have a lead and will let everyone know if it pans out or not.

 

I was not suggesting that Diamond would have 1976-77 data. My point was that regardless of whether or not they were around, the percentage of comics going to those test market cities today, may well be about the same in terms of percentages as they were in 1977. Certainly it would be a starting point.I'm only interested in market share per city, noit actual distribution, at least not yet.

 

I recall looking at some of the runs for Sgt Fury in 1976-77 in the CBG Comic Price Guide. To my surprise there were greater numbers for Sgt Fury than for a few Superheroes. None of the Western's had numbers, as I recall.

 

An idea I had was based on an article that appeared in CBG about 6 weeks ago. They had listed the name of the guy that ran marketing at Marvel in 1976. They did not mention what had happened to him. I ran a Google search on the name and came up empty. Maybe somebody else could be more resourceful. In the meantiom ethe issue got tossed and I have no idea what the name was.

 

If the folks that ran marketing at Marvel could be tracked down, and they would almost certainly be alive to talk about it, some great information could be gleaned. Has anybody ever tried to track down the guy that wrote the letter Donut has put up here?

 

[lighthouse]

The Standard Guide does not list circulation statements on most the Bronze Age westerns...

 

The last circulation statement listed for Kid Colt is 1967...

 

I just went through my Rawhide Kids, and confirmed the info listed in the Standard Guide... The circ statements for Rawhide Kid were in the May issues (126, 133, 139, 145, 151). If someone has beater copies of the April and June Kid Colts to paw through you can probably find the statements for the 30c variants in either 217 or 218 and the statement for the 35c variants in 223 or 224.

 

Circulation for Rawhide Kid:

 

1974: 151,165

1975: 143,972

1976: ... (not listed in SG, and I can't find my copy of issue 139)

1977: 98,978

1978: 89,414

 

Note that by the 1978 statement, the title was being returned at a rate of 62%. Anything over 55% was considered cause for immediate cancellation of a title throughout most of the newsstand era. Popular books typically saw return rates around 30-40%...

 

 

For comparison, a few other titles circulation for the 35c variant time period in 1977:

 

Amazing Spider-Man: 281,860

Avengers: 170,099

Daredevil: 126,399

Fantastic Four: 197,561

Sgt Fury: 112,882

 

The first circ statement listed in the SG for Star Wars is for 1979, and shows the title at 278,759.

 

A few of you are aware of my theory on the distribution of 35c variants and how it differs from the distribution of 30c books. I think time will prove that unlike the 30c variants, not all of the 35c distribution cities received all their titles in 35c form. I believe the actual number of distribution cities is far greater than the eight listed in the Brodsky letter, and that many of those cities may have only received a few titles in 35c form. The distribution of 35c Star Wars books is clearly greater in New York than anywhere else, and there are pockets of variants found in places that were receiving normal versions of most of their titles. I know of a community in the Southwest that received 35c variants for Amazing Spider-Man and X-Men, but did not receive variants of Fantastic Four.

 

It's not a matter of taking a percentage of the print run and doing the math. If Memphis got half the titles, and Lincoln, Nebraska got the other half, then the titles that went to Lincoln are going to be harder to find. Clearly the Western and reprint titles will be harder to find no matter where they went, but if Daredevil went out to a total test population of 1.1 million people, and Avengers went out to a test population of 3.4 million, you're going to see a lot more Avengers variants than you would expect from comparing the print runs on their own.

 

Marvel used control groups in their 1976 experiments, and clearly refined the process in 1977. It boggles my mind that we have yet to uncover any of the data collected from those experiments. Unfortunately the many changes of ownership at Marvel may have cast the information into the dustbin, but we are only 26 years removed. The guys that did the number-crunching should still be around somewhere...