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35 cent Variant List-Help wanted

Started by underthebigw,

904 posts in this topic

underthebigw

underthebigw

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Nice price on this X-men 106 variant

 

Linky poo

 

I actually thought it might go higher. When you think about it, that's less than twice the 30 cent variant X-men 100 gets in high grade, yet this book is significantly scarcers. Not that I'm biased or anything after picking up a variant copy of 105 wink.gif

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underthebigw

underthebigw

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yes - nice pickup on that one - now did CGC miss the variant notation on the label - or did the newbie seller forget to put it in the description tongue.gif

 

I'd say, both. I don't know if the seller was the submitter (I figured it was in bad form to ask after I got the book, "By the way, you just sold me a scarce 35 cent copy which x-men collectors would pay through the nose for. Did you not know it was a variant or did CGC miss it?" grin.gif). I guess the only excuse for CGC staff to miss these is the shear volume of books they handle. Still, I think there should be some awareness on their part. Then again, I'd hate to lose the possibility of picking up another find like this if they start pointing out variants to clueless submitters.

 

By the way, I have your book in hand right now. PM me your address and we'll iron out the details.

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underthebigw

underthebigw

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My question is how the heck you got to that BIN so quickly? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

Hey, I'll be honest. It sat on ebay for 4 or 5 days, I think, without a bid. I finally contacted the seller, and like many other collectors on the forums, after a few exchanges, I emailed him and asked him if he had a price in mind. He told me what it was and that he had no hope of getting it on ebay, but that he would change it to a BIN at that price. Of course, I told him I would pick it up. When he eventually changed to a BIN, I jumped on it. As for the speed of it, pure luck. Our correspondence happened shortly before he changed to a BIN and it was slow work day, so I was able to check in often. Sadly, it was an isolated book and he had no others ( I would have offered him much more for these, since I would have been the one initiating the sale; something I always do when I inquire about books not already offered).

 

Now, bring on the moralizing..... smirk.gif

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underthebigw

underthebigw

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Quick variant update before I crash. Just got home from the Big Apple show, and only saw a few variants for sale. Far and away, the most noteworthy one were a whole section of 35 cent variants on Motor City's wall. The all appeared to be higher grade than their offerings on ebay, typically in the VF range (their grade, not mine). Here's the kicker, if memory serves, they ranged from about $250-$375. We'll see how fast those move.

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Quick variant update before I crash. Just got home from the Big Apple show, and only saw a few variants for sale. Far and away, the most noteworthy one were a whole section of 35 cent variants on Motor City's wall. The all appeared to be higher grade than their offerings on ebay, typically in the VF range (their grade, not mine). Here's the kicker, if memory serves, they ranged from about $250-$375. We'll see how fast those move.

 

This is where the variant followers on this board seem to lose me. Regardelss of what grade they are advertised in, I have received just one 35 cent variant (aside from the Cape Fear collection) that graded out at better than 8.0. The prices aI have seen these go at are often times between 70 and 120. The ASM stuff today is a good example of that, with all three finishing at close to $160 apiece.

 

Moreover I have seen plenty of 35 cent junk, that is VG to Fine stuff sell for 40 to 80 bucks a pop.

 

The latest Comic Buyers guide shows a 9.2 as selling 2.28 times NM. It shows an 8.0 selling at 0.84 times NM. Lastly it shows a 6.0 selling at 0.34 times NM. Forgetting what NM "ought to be" for these books, the relationships between grade and relative price is what has me interested.

 

This relationship says that a 9.2 ought to sell for 6.7 times what a "Fine" comic goes for and 2.7 times what a VF book sells for.

 

Therefore if you take the average 35 cent variant on eBay and say it sold for 70 bucks (and I think that is low) and if you say the average grade is "Fine" (and I think that is high), a comprable book in 9.2 ought to sell for $469. A book in VF ought to sell for $173. Moreover, a book in 9.4 ought to sell for 11.7 times a "Fine" book. Therefore a book in 9.4 "ought" to sell for $819.

 

One more quick illustration. Say a book in "VF" sells for $90 on average on eBay. The same book in 9.2 ought to sell for $243.

 

The point is this. This market appears to me to be very irrational, which is actually good for me. Lower grade stuff seems to sell for a relatively very high premium. On the other hand, higher grade stuff tends to sell for a very low premium.

 

These numbers are all based on my personal observations of prices and grades on eBay. I am in the process of having the 99 "Cape Fear" variants graded. I am also in the process of having about 15 graded that I have bought on eBay, including quite a few sold by Lighthouse. I will have very objective data once I get all those comics back and am able to compare advertised grades to actual graded results and sort out a little better what prices are actually being paid for relative grades.

 

To the point of the original post by SilverandBronze: If the Motor City comics are indeed high grade, ie NM- or better, rationally the prices may not be that high at all. On the other hand if they are "merely" VF, the prices would seem to be quite high. I will say I bought two 30 cent variants in the last auction from Motor City. Both seemed badly overgraded, at first review. On the other hand I bought on 35 center in the first auction that seemed spot on.

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underthebigw

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Quick variant update before I crash. Just got home from the Big Apple show, and only saw a few variants for sale. Far and away, the most noteworthy one were a whole section of 35 cent variants on Motor City's wall. The all appeared to be higher grade than their offerings on ebay, typically in the VF range (their grade, not mine). Here's the kicker, if memory serves, they ranged from about $250-$375. We'll see how fast those move.

 

This is where the variant followers on this board seem to lose me. Regardelss of what grade they are advertised in, I have received just one 35 cent variant (aside from the Cape Fear collection) that graded out at better than 8.0. The prices aI have seen these go at are often times between 70 and 120. The ASM stuff today is a good example of that, with all three finishing at close to $160 apiece.

 

Moreover I have seen plenty of 35 cent junk, that is VG to Fine stuff sell for 40 to 80 bucks a pop.

 

The latest Comic Buyers guide shows a 9.2 as selling 2.28 times NM. It shows an 8.0 selling at 0.84 times NM. Lastly it shows a 6.0 selling at 0.34 times NM. Forgetting what NM "ought to be" for these books, the relationships between grade and relative price is what has me interested.

 

This relationship says that a 9.2 ought to sell for 6.7 times what a "Fine" comic goes for and 2.7 times what a VF book sells for.

 

Therefore if you take the average 35 cent variant on eBay and say it sold for 70 bucks (and I think that is low) and if you say the average grade is "Fine" (and I think that is high), a comprable book in 9.2 ought to sell for $469. A book in VF ought to sell for $173. Moreover, a book in 9.4 ought to sell for 11.7 times a "Fine" book. Therefore a book in 9.4 "ought" to sell for $819.

 

One more quick illustration. Say a book in "VF" sells for $90 on average on eBay. The same book in 9.2 ought to sell for $243.

 

The point is this. This market appears to me to be very irrational, which is actually good for me. Lower grade stuff seems to sell for a relatively very high premium. On the other hand, higher grade stuff tends to sell for a very low premium.

 

These numbers are all based on my personal observations of prices and grades on eBay. I am in the process of having the 99 "Cape Fear" variants graded. I am also in the process of having about 15 graded that I have bought on eBay, including quite a few sold by Lighthouse. I will have very objective data once I get all those comics back and am able to compare advertised grades to actual graded results and sort out a little better what prices are actually being paid for relative grades.

 

To the point of the original post by SilverandBronze: If the Motor City comics are indeed high grade, ie NM- or better, rationally the prices may not be that high at all. On the other hand if they are "merely" VF, the prices would seem to be quite high. I will say I bought two 30 cent variants in the last auction from Motor City. Both seemed badly overgraded, at first review. On the other hand I bought on 35 center in the first auction that seemed spot on.

 

 

Glenn, to a large degree, we're saying the same thing here. These were mostly graded VF's and VF-'s, and at this grade, I think they are overpriced. And, from what I saw, they were over-graded. I could see a 9.2 going for these prices, but these weren't 9.2's. Honestly, I don't even think they were VF's-like the ones on ebay, they seemed overgraded.

 

And there was definitely no DD 148.

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Glenn, to a large degree, we're saying the same thing here. These were mostly graded VF's and VF-'s, and at this grade, I think they are overpriced. And, from what I saw, they were over-graded. I could see a 9.2 going for these prices, but these weren't 9.2's. Honestly, I don't even think they were VF's-like the ones on ebay, they seemed overgraded.

 

 

Taking you at your word, since I couldn't see them myself, those prices seem rather astronomical. Wow!

 

Did they have Scooby Doo or Flinstones for sale at any price?

 

I would have to guess they are just showing off the inventory at those prices with no intention of actually selling.

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