heritage results

[Sal]

than you would agree that an estimate from heritage is not to guide you,but to manipulate you....

 

Well, I assume they have an appraiser whose job is likely divorced from any kind of market reality (i.e. how much money can real human beings cough up in a given week). I don't think that's automatically the same thing as lying, but at the same time, yes I would imagine they err on the side of caution and set those "estimates" high 'cause ya never know who'll bite.

 

Unless it's just a strict quotation out of OS or there's some earlier documentation of a similar sale that can be traced and made part of public record, then I would be a little wary.

 

Where were the estimates posted? I don't get their newsletter nor have I seen a press release touting their books, but I suspect they don't provide estimates for but a few of their key items.

 

If you'll look at the Heritage Catalogs, you'll note that they stopped putting in any estimates a couple years back. If they were trying to manipulate you with estimates they are doing a pretty good job of disguising it.

 

Within Heritage and within the auction business in general, there's two schools of thought about estimates. Some feel that higher estimates help eductate/inform/manipulate the customer to pay more for an item. Others feel that no or low estimates actually produce higher prices because it encourages more bidding as people think they may get a bargain. This second group won out for Comics -- hence, the estimates have been removed from the catalog -- save for the Overstreet prices.

 

BTW, Heritage seems to have made a major revision to their reserve policy -- posting the amount and handling them in a much more straight-forward fashion.

Thanks Adam, I agree with everything you said, particularly about the better transparency in Heritage's reserve procedures, and I was really puzzled with action1kid's references to "estimates", because my recollection was the same as yours. I genuinely don't recall seeing any estimates for ANY comics in either the catalog or on the website.

 

well, i can back actionkid1 up here. i do know that there were estimates on a lot - but not all - of the books i was looking at, but not in any real 'official' sense. i liken it to the people who list OGG prices in their feeBay auctions..

 

point of clarification: this was online i am talking about, not the print catalogue

[adamstrange]

My general impression is that they provide maybe a dozen or so estimates before each auction to create publicity for the auction and high-profile items. They have to give estimates in order "make news", but they can still choose how conservative they make those estimates. Other than that, its all Overstreet.

[sfilosa]

Steve, as for the SA DC market, I don't dispute your point that the market is thin at the high end. But as for there being no dealers picking up HG SA DCs, surely you jest. My fiercest competition often comes from Mark Wilson, Josh Nathanson, Robert Roter (until recently, but he now seems to be exiting) and every now and then, in a sneak attack, Steve Fishler. And of course in the late SA/BA DC market, Joe Serpico is a market-maker.

 

Tim - you are correct, there are dealers willing to pick-up HG DC's. But I think they are very selective about titles and specific issues (or say time periods).

 

Also, the book must be NM (or highest graded copy). If I'm wrong, tell me and I'll shut up as I admit I don't that much about DC's.

 

 

REGARDGING ESTIMATES: Heritage puts estimates on the eBay Live website for ALL Items. They usually give a range (i.e. Estimate $300-500).

[adamstrange]

Thanks for clearing up the mystery sfilosa. I don't follow the auctions through that so didn't think about it for estimates.

[shrunkenhead]

 

 

Isn't it obvious what's really going on here? GA prices are softening. The biggest force in the high-end GA market is gone and is liquidating his very nice inventory, flooding the market. Are the buyers in this recent auction dealers? Who knows, but if they are, they're clearly not willing to try to "support" previous price levels.

 

There's some problems here, I think.

 

1) Record prices are still being realized for highgrade gold, key and non-key alike, even in this supposedly softer marketplace.

 

2) There is no major dealer in the country who will snub his nose at highgrade GA because prices right now are "softening."

 

3) I'm assuming you're referring to JP, and yes, those books are now flooding the market. So naturally prices will appear "soft." How can they not? You can only push out so much product at one time, for at these prices, the money out there to buy is indeed finite. Eventually, though, (maybe 5 to seven years) all this stuff is going to get re-absorbed and disappear once again. True, thanks to ebay you'll see more GA than you ever did before, but the good stuff is going to vanish once more. And when that happens, interest and prices will likely shoot up again.

 

You'll see.

[action1kid]

you know, jp still has the pay copy of marvel 1[which he paid geppi 350k for]

do you think this book is next on the block to be sold and do you think he can recapture the amount he paid?

 

i think this book is the 2nd highest graded by cgc though not sure, and i do believe the ungraded mile high and allentown are higher..

[sfilosa]

Quote:

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Isn't it obvious what's really going on here? GA prices are softening. The biggest force in the high-end GA market is gone and is liquidating his very nice inventory, flooding the market. Are the buyers in this recent auction dealers? Who knows, but if they are, they're clearly not willing to try to "support" previous price levels.

 

 

 

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There's some problems here, I think.

 

1) Record prices are still being realized for highgrade gold, key and non-key alike, even in this supposedly softer marketplace.

 

2) There is no major dealer in the country who will snub his nose at highgrade GA because prices right now are "softening."

 

3) I'm assuming you're referring to JP, and yes, those books are now flooding the market. So naturally prices will appear "soft." How can they not? You can only push out so much product at one time, for at these prices, the money out there to buy is indeed finite. Eventually, though, (maybe 5 to seven years) all this stuff is going to get re-absorbed and disappear once again. True, thanks to ebay you'll see more GA than you ever did before, but the good stuff is going to vanish once more. And when that happens, interest and prices will likely shoot up again.

 

You'll see.

 

#1 Correct

#2 Not sure? Honestly many dealers want to buy non-key high grade GA books right now.

#3 The real question is, who are the collectors buying these books? It seems that most of the Old School GA collectors aren't interested in paying tens of thousands of dollars for issues that they bought / owned a decade ago at a fraction of the current price. JP really was the NEW GUY, buying the TOP QUALITY BOOKS, and dealers knew they could sell books to him and he'd have the CASH at the time.

 

I have heard that several major dealers are VERY CASH POOR at this time (as in not making good on pay debts or double charging for transactions and not immediately correcting the situation).

 

Nuff Said!!!!

[shrunkenhead]

I have heard that several major dealers are VERY CASH POOR at this time (as in not making good on pay debts or double charging for transactions and not immediately correcting the situation).

 

Nuff Said!!!!

 

Oh God, double-charging? How are they doing that; I assume with credit card purchases?

 

Time to dust off the checkbook.

[tth2]

#3 The real question is, who are the collectors buying these books? It seems that most of the Old School GA collectors aren't interested in paying tens of thousands of dollars for issues that they bought / owned a decade ago at a fraction of the current price. JP really was the NEW GUY, buying the TOP QUALITY BOOKS, and dealers knew they could sell books to him and he'd have the CASH at the time.

Exactly.

[Silver Surfer]

Any idea who might have picked up the Marvel Comics #1 Denver Copy for $180,000 odd dollars.

[action1kid]

at this time no

[esquirecomics]

you know, jp still has the pay copy of marvel 1[which he paid geppi 350k for]

do you think this book is next on the block to be sold and do you think he can recapture the amount he paid?

 

I believe this book will be in the Oct Heritage auction.

[esquirecomics]

Isn't it obvious what's really going on here? GA prices are softening. The biggest force in the high-end GA market is gone and is liquidating his very nice inventory, flooding the market. Are the buyers in this recent auction dealers? Who knows, but if they are, they're clearly not willing to try to "support" previous price levels.

 

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

There's some problems here, I think.

 

1) Record prices are still being realized for highgrade gold, key and non-key alike, even in this supposedly softer marketplace.

 

2) There is no major dealer in the country who will snub his nose at highgrade GA because prices right now are "softening."

 

3) I'm assuming you're referring to JP, and yes, those books are now flooding the market. So naturally prices will appear "soft." How can they not? You can only push out so much product at one time, for at these prices, the money out there to buy is indeed finite. Eventually, though, (maybe 5 to seven years) all this stuff is going to get re-absorbed and disappear once again. True, thanks to ebay you'll see more GA than you ever did before, but the good stuff is going to vanish once more. And when that happens, interest and prices will likely shoot up again.

 

You'll see.

 

#1 Correct

 

Agreed.

 

#2 Not sure? Honestly many dealers want to buy non-key high grade GA books right now.

 

I agree with both the underlying premise and the response. Not in conflict.

 

#3 The real question is, who are the collectors buying these books? It seems that most of the Old School GA collectors aren't interested in paying tens of thousands of dollars for issues that they bought / owned a decade ago at a fraction of the current price. JP really was the NEW GUY, buying the TOP QUALITY BOOKS, and dealers knew they could sell books to him and he'd have the CASH at the time.

 

 

I have heard that several major dealers are VERY CASH POOR at this time (as in not making good on pay debts or double charging for transactions and not immediately correcting the situation).

 

This is sadly very true for many dealers. In fact, some of the stories are quite pathetic and would be highly embarassing were they to be made public. The actions that some dealers have committed with regards to those they allegedly call their friends/colleagues is disheartening to say the least.

[Forbush-Man]

I think you might add that Comic Collecting requires "Disposable Income", and right now the economy is not exactly great & the price of gas hurts a lot of peoples pockets. There may be a degree of "What next?" in peoples thoughts.

[Silver Surfer]

you know, jp still has the pay copy of marvel 1[which he paid geppi 350k for]

do you think this book is next on the block to be sold and do you think he can recapture the amount he paid?

 

I believe this book will be in the Oct Heritage auction.

 

Perhaps Geppi will buy it back for $250,000. I saw a show on lotto winners, $92M, $41M, etc. You should have seen the [embarrassing lack of self control] they were spending money on. $150,000 for two ugly statues of the Blues Brothers that the guy had sitting in his back yard. $60,000 on a home stereo system that is probably totally out dated right now. 10 different vehicles that are probably gathering dust and one guy had a $1M dollar limo car. Give me $40M and and I'll go on a spending spree that would make JP blush.

[Forbush-Man]

By saying "Gas" I really mean "OIL'. Oil is where Diesel, Jet Fuel & Gas come from. The basic for all energy. Theis means "Frieght". Cost of all goods is the raw cost + Transportation,......Cost of Transportation goes up, cost of goods goes up.

 

Most valuable assests:

 

1) Air

2) Water

3) Food

4)Oil

5) Rubber

 

At least this was the model during WWII.

[tth2]

I saw a show on lotto winners, $92M, $41M, etc. You should have seen the [embarrassing lack of self control] they were spending money on. $150,000 for two ugly statues of the Blues Brothers that the guy had sitting in his back yard. $60,000 on a home stereo system that is probably totally out dated right now. 10 different vehicles that are probably gathering dust and one guy had a $1M dollar limo car. Give me $40M and and I'll go on a spending spree that would make JP blush.

If you do that, those lottery winners will see YOU on a TV show and they`ll make fun of you, saying "That guy spent how much on a comic book?!"

[Silver Surfer]

I saw a show on lotto winners, $92M, $41M, etc. You should have seen the [embarrassing lack of self control] they were spending money on. $150,000 for two ugly statues of the Blues Brothers that the guy had sitting in his back yard. $60,000 on a home stereo system that is probably totally out dated right now. 10 different vehicles that are probably gathering dust and one guy had a $1M dollar limo car. Give me $40M and and I'll go on a spending spree that would make JP blush.

If you do that, those lottery winners will see YOU on a TV show and they`ll make fun of you, saying "That guy spent how much on a comic book?!"

 

Then I know I've made it.

[sfilosa]

#3 The real question is, who are the collectors buying these books? It seems that most of the Old School GA collectors aren't interested in paying tens of thousands of dollars for issues that they bought / owned a decade ago at a fraction of the current price. JP really was the NEW GUY, buying the TOP QUALITY BOOKS, and dealers knew they could sell books to him and he'd have the CASH at the time.

 

 

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Mark

 

You are definitely one of the collectors buying these books. And obviously there are others. But the amount of material being put on the market at any one time, is obviously not being absorbed by collectors. Usually dealers step in, purchasing at a price they feel, will be profitable to them some time later, once the collectors have the funds available for new purchases.

 

This does not seem to be happening now, especially on the more esoteric publishers. I think the dealers don't have a real feel for who would eventually buy theses books at higher prices.

[esquirecomics]

Perhaps Geppi will buy it back for $250,000. I saw a show on lotto winners, $92M, $41M, etc. You should have seen the [embarrassing lack of self control] they were spending money on. $150,000 for two ugly statues of the Blues Brothers that the guy had sitting in his back yard. $60,000 on a home stereo system that is probably totally out dated right now. 10 different vehicles that are probably gathering dust and one guy had a $1M dollar limo car. Give me $40M and and I'll go on a spending spree that would make JP blush.

 

I'm blanking on who told me this, but statistically most (or at least many) lottery winners actually end up losing most of their money within a short period of time, particularly because of some of the examples above.