HG SA Marvels!!! Are there really a lot more out there?

[sfilosa]

Props to Valiantman (Greg Holland) for his great Census Website.

 

Because I keep hearing about how PRESSING will make the census increase significantly for HG books and how certain forum members continue to rant about "there are lots more books to be certified so don't invest any money in them" I decided to examine a Title that I collect (SA Strange Tales). Now if you look at this analysis it shows how many BOOKS have been certified in the PAST YEAR.

 

Strange Tales Census Change Past Year

 

Quick Observations:

 

1) Other then two issues that apparently were resubmitted and received a higher grade, there has only been ONE new CGC 9.4 or higher from issue #101-113. As a matter of fact, there hasn't even been one copy of issue number #112 (unfortunately and issue I need), certified in the past year.

 

2) It does appear that there were a number of resubmits between #108-133, yet what you don't see is jumps. Yes, there are are a few 9.6's that became 9.8's, but not 9.0's go to 9.4 or higher. Are 9.6's being pressed into 9.8's or just plain resubmits, we don't know, but of course 9.6's are beautiful books in the first place so it's not like a crappy book is being pressed into a uber-high grade.

 

3) Lastly, notice that there have been ZERO #135 graded 9.4 or above (and only two 9.2's). Considering this is a KEY ISSUE, why aren't more issues being certified (or pressed) into CGC 9.4 (where the really premiums begin). But the census does show that there are still a decent amount of later issues that will grade out 9.4 or better (and my guess is that pressing has nothing to do with them being 9.4's).

 

Thoughts?

[comicdonna]

I can't imagine someone resubmitting a 9.6 book

[uclapeterg]

because no one cares about Strange Tales?

 

Seriously, though, a couple of points:

 

1. CGC is really not well known YET

 

2. Some people don't slab something UNLESS they are going to sell

 

3. Some people will never slab because they don't believe in CGC

 

BTW, How can you identify when a book is being resubmitted?

[Red Hook]

Because I keep hearing about how PRESSING will make the census increase significantly for HG books and how certain forum members continue to rant about "there are lots more books to be certified so don't invest any money in them"

 

Who's been saying that, and do you have any links? Also, Strange Tales is about the worst title you could pick to do a study. Why not ASM or FF? You can make stats say anything you want, if you pick the right stats.

[Silver Surfer]

I can't imagine someone resubmitting a 9.6 book

 

Why not? If I have a SA gem that looks under graded with an old label I'm going to resubmit it. What's the problem?

[sfilosa]

BTW, How can you identify when a book is being resubmitted?

 

No sure way, but when you see "-1" in the 9.4 column and a "1" in 9.6, more than likely it was resubmit. What you can't see is the resubmits that didn't receive a higher grade.

[joe_collector]

Now if you look at this analysis it shows how many BOOKS have been certified in the PAST YEAR.

 

Are you sure? My link listed it at 6 months.

 

P.S. Use a mainstream title like ASM if you want to get the pulse of the CGC market. Virtually no one cares about ST so it's a VERY strange choice on your part.

[sfilosa]

The link I have pulls up the last YEAR (from July to July).

 

I used Strange Tales because I KNOW HOW HARD it is to find these books in High Grade. While I agree that the demand is not anywhere near as much as ASM, there is demand, and here's an interesting footnote.

 

About a year ago (maybe less) I tried to buy 3 of Burntboy's (Harry) Strange Tales between #117-120 (I think) in CGC 9.4. I didn't get them because they sold to someone else. I believe that person was none other than Tom Brulato.

 

I point that out because here was one of the two biggest SA collectors paying a very high multiple for COMMON CGC 9.4's. Right, it's because these books have been and probably always will be impossible to find in very HG.

 

And almost all of the first twenty issues (#101-120) would now go for over $1K in CGC 9.4. Shouldn't that bring them out from collectors? Yet the census is barely budging on these issues (yet the later more common issues that sell for significantly less continues to grow).

[tth2]

Steve,

 

I would open this discussion to SA DCs too. Although it appears that pressing or resubbing a book into 9.4 is easier than I had initially thought, it still doesn't appear to be easy or common.

 

I would therefore pose this conundrum to the sky-is-falling-due-to-increased-supply crowd:

 

Fact: CGC 9.4 copies of the following SA DCs would go for solid five figures (and I don't mean $10,000): Showcase 8, 13, 14, 22, 23, 24, B&B 28-30, Flash 105, 106, 110 & 123 (maybe some Batmans and Supermans too, but I don't follow those markets).

 

Fact: CGC 9.4 copies of many early SA DCs would go for solid four figures (and I don't mean $1,000). The issues are too numerous to list.

 

Therefore, on the face of it, the economic incentive appears to be there to "find" 9.4 copies. And yet, the numbers of 9.4 books have hardly budged in the last 3 years. For example, for Flash 105-120, the census of 9.4 books has increased by ONE book (a Flash 105) since 2001. These are ALL solid four figure, and some five figure, books in 9.4.

 

Question: If it's so easy to increase the population of HG books through pressing, why isn't it happening with these books?

[joe_collector]

The link I have pulls up the last YEAR (from July to July).

 

The problem here is the difference between the Canadian DD/MM/YYYY vs. the US MM/DD/YYYY format, and the fact that neither of the DAYS was above 12.

 

P.S. No amount of blathering will change the fact that ASM is the currency of the Marvel Silver Age books and should be the one used for any evaluation.

 

You bias is clear, but I could also *prove* that Bronze Age books are rare by using some 1970's books from the 1970-73 range. I bet some of those have even lower Census numbers than Strange Tales.

[sfilosa]

P.S. No amount of blathering will change the fact that ASM is the currency of the Marvel Silver Age books and should be the one used for any evaluation.

 

You bias is clear, but I could also *prove* that Bronze Age books are rare by using some 1970's books from the 1970-73 range. I bet some of those have even lower Census numbers than Strange Tales.

 

 

Why should only ASM be used?

 

Tim just pointed out that DC's worth thousand of dollars just aren't being submitted (or resubmitted after pressing) in any quantity.

 

If a dealer had a NM Strange Tales #112 (or say GL #12) that they thought were NM, would they really submit another copy of ASM #62. The Strange Tales or GL books would sell for four times as much.

 

Your problem is that you really know NOTHING about the SUPPLY OR DEMAND for these Silver Age books and you are just extrapolating your BA knowledge, assuming it is one hundred percent relative to SA books.

 

GUESS WHAT, IT ISN'T!!!!!!

[tth2]

P.S. No amount of blathering will change the fact that ASM is the currency of the Marvel Silver Age books and should be the one used for any evaluation.

ASM is NOT appropriate to use. It's ALWAYS been the easiest Marvel SA book to find in HG. The numbers in the census are huge already, which wouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has any experience in collecting Marvel SA. There may undoubtedly be pressed books amongst the 9.4s-9.8s in the ASM census, but I wouldn't have any problem believing that the numbers could be what they are without pressing either.

 

The point is there are Marvel SAs worth a lot of money with very low census numbers in HG. You could substitute FF 1-10, Hulk 1-6 or JIM 83-100 instead of Steve's ST example. The increase in supply of HG copies is negligible in light of the demand and the economic bonanza that a seller would reap. Hulk 1 in 9.4 is a $100K book, no ifs, buts or maybes about it. If the source of pressed high grade copies was really that readily available, the census would've been flooded by now. What are the pressers waiting for, for Hulk 1 to become a $200K book?

[FlyingDonut]

Spider-Man 1-38, change the past year

 

Fantastic Four 1-50

 

Hulk 1-6

 

Spider-Man is the wrong title to use for this exercise - Spider-Man has always been more plentiful in high grade - I've seen many more high grade Spideys than any other Marvels. Hulk 1-6 is a good one to use, as are early FFs. High grade Hulks simply do not exist in the census. A 9.6 Hulk 1 would probably set the record for the highest Silver Age book

[Aman619]

Steve, thanx for taking the lead and doing the research on this. As I expected (guessed) the really early scarce-in-HG books just arent flooding the census (yet?) due to pressing. These books are hard to come by in 9.4... and almost as hard to find in "improvable 9.0 or 9.2 condition". So even though you picked a relatively obscure title like Strange Tales (why, man why??) Donut's three searches also show the same slow census increments for Hulk, Spidey and FF, DEFINITELY high reward target titles for pressing candidates.

 

Not every book is dramatically improvable. To be fair, though, maybe the big pressing business is lower down in grade... making 8.0s into 9.0s , but perhaps there too, it's not that easy since the lower the grade, the more defects a book has, and not all of them are fixable by pressing.

[Aces]

HG SA Marvels!!! Are there really a lot more out there?

 

Probably not from November 1961 - end of 1963.

 

Some 1964 books never seem to show up in 9.4+ either ( DD 7, FF 25).

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Steve, thanx for taking the lead and doing the research on this. As I expected (guessed) the really early scarce-in-HG books just arent flooding the census (yet?) due to pressing. These books are hard to come by in 9.4... and almost as hard to find in "improvable 9.0 or 9.2 condition". So even though you picked a relatively obscure title like Strange Tales (why, man why??) Donut's three searches also show the same slow census increments for Hulk, Spidey and FF, DEFINITELY high reward target titles for pressing candidates.

 

Not every book is dramatically improvable. To be fair, though, maybe the big pressing business is lower down in grade... making 8.0s into 9.0s , but perhaps there too, it's not that easy since the lower the grade, the more defects a book has, and not all of them are fixable by pressing.

 

Why must a thread about scarcity become one about Pressing? Why, man, why??

[tth2]

Why must a thread about scarcity become one about Pressing? Why, man, why??

Because the pressing paranoia posse were arguing that no book is scarce in high grade, because lower grade copies can all be pressed up into minty fresh condition.

[drbanner]

Why must a thread about scarcity become one about Pressing? Why, man, why??

Because the pressing paranoia posse were arguing that no book is scarce in high grade, because lower grade copies can all be pressed up into minty fresh condition.

 

Great, I got lots of those - where do I send 'em!?!? It's beyond ridiculous the harping that goes on about it...like we didn't hear it on the first 4,345 threads?

[drbanner]

Because I keep hearing about how PRESSING will make the census increase significantly for HG books and how certain forum members continue to rant about "there are lots more books to be certified so don't invest any money in them"

 

Who's been saying that, and do you have any links? Also, Strange Tales is about the worst title you could pick to do a study. Why not ASM or FF? You can make stats say anything you want, if you pick the right stats.

 

Linky-poo!

[heinlein99]

A 9.6 Hulk 1 would probably set the record for the highest Silver Age book

 

You really think so?