HG SA Marvels!!! Are there really a lot more out there?

[sfilosa]

Steve, thanx for taking the lead and doing the research on this. As I expected (guessed) the really early scarce-in-HG books just arent flooding the census (yet?) due to pressing. These books are hard to come by in 9.4... and almost as hard to find in "improvable 9.0 or 9.2 condition". So even though you picked a relatively obscure title like Strange Tales (why, man why??) Donut's three searches also show the same slow census increments for Hulk, Spidey and FF, DEFINITELY high reward target titles for pressing candidates.

 

I probably should have picked FF, but I didn't because the MOVIE just came out. And since everyone knew the movie was coming out, I thought that the census might have been slightly scewed in that certain collectors who don't normally sell (or submit) would be tempted to (to catch the movie hype). Now that the movie hype is over, I would actually expect less HG copies being certified over the next year.

 

That said, I thought Strange Tales was an interesting one (and so would Tales to Astonish), simply because the later issues (i.e. 1966 and on) are still being submitted at a regular pace. Except for issue #140, every issue from #136-168 had at least one new 9.4 (or higher) on the census with many have five or more.

[joe_collector]

Your problem is that you really know NOTHING about the SUPPLY OR DEMAND for these Silver Age books and you are just extrapolating your BA knowledge, assuming it is one hundred percent relative to SA books.

 

Your problem is that you really know NOTHING about the SUPPLY OR DEMAND, period.

[joe_collector]

I love how you CGC Apologists, when confronted, automatically equate "Silver Age" with "1961-63"...

 

What pray tell, is 1964-70 then?

[Sharkey]

Steve, you pose an excellent question. I think the real point of differentiation is that most (but not all) EARLY Marvels (ie, 1964-1965 and earlier, for the most part) can be tough in very high grades (9.0 and above). I don't think this is going to change that much moving forward. Sure, there are copies out there, but even if a dozen more 9.0+ FF 2s were to hit the market there will probably be enough collectors who will want them. There are some books that just don't seem to be out there. Most of them are early issues of the titles. I do not believe that's going to change a whole lot. Sure, there are guys like AdamStrange who have those books. How many more are there like him that we don't know about? That's the $64,000 question. Probably a relatively low number. But really, comic book collectors can be very solitary people. We just don't know how many are out there.

 

My stance has been the later 1960s Marvels will have increasing population numbers in high grades as more and more people decide to slab their books. Especially 1968 and up (ie, the Mile High II books and that era -- the warehouse populations will eventually come to light). As I've mentioned before, I know of several collectors with high grade unslabbed collections [consisting mostly of late 1960s and early to mid Bronze Age books) who are strongly considering slabbing and selling -- one guy has already slabbed his whole collection and sold it on ebay; another is slowly starting to pull out books and test the waters. Things happen. They're older, having kids, needing a bigger house, new cars or minivans, etc. They see the prices getting realized on the books they bought 10 or 15 years ago and they decide it's time to cash some comics in and help out the family situation. This is purely anecdotal, but if I know a few people in this boat, how many other people in a similar situation are there? A dozen? Two dozen, three dozen, more?

 

In addition, right now, we are sitting an a very interesting economic bubble. Fuel prices are rising like crazy. Interest rates are poised to continue rising. Inflation will likely rise as a sequelae to the rising fuel costs (and the subsequent rising manufacturing and transportation costs). If the economy starts to get recessionary or depressionary, there is a population of people who will decide to get rid of their comics to make up for any financial hardships they might experience.

 

IF that happens, I think we'll see some collectors who might not normally sell off their collections decide the time is right to slab and sell. I won't call it a glut, but I do expect in the next couple of years to see more books hitting the census.

 

Again, I don't think it's going to affect the truly tough hard-to-find 1962-1965 Marvel books. Many of the hard-to-find issues will remain that way, and they are going to continue to realize crazy prices. Supply and demand is the most fundamental economic principle. Will enough new collectors (and/or speculators!) come into the hobby and replace or make up for the people who might be cashing out? That will determine whether or not we see prices go up or down as more books get slabbed.

 

 

And it won't affect Strange Tales at all cuz hardly anybody collected them -- who wants those crappy Ayers Torch stories? The only reason to collect them is for the handful of cool covers like 107 and 114 and the Ditko Dr. Strange stories....

 

Although really, since nobody read those things, why aren't there more high grade copies around? There should be thousands that were read once and never picked up again. I guess they ended up warpping the dead fish and lining the bird cages...

 

Oh, and to answer the pressing question (sorry, can't resist lobbing a few grenades here) the pressing paranoia police will eventually realize that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. There are only so many books that can be significantly improved by pressing. You won't see 7.0s becoming 9.2s. There will be an occasional 9.2 that can get bumped to a 9.4 and such, but It ain't going to affect the population significantly.

[joe_collector]

Oh, and to answer the pressing question (sorry, can't resist lobbing a few grenades here) the pressing paranoia police will eventually realize that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. There are only so many books that can be significantly improved by pressing.

 

Of course, usually it involves cleaning and pressing to make the real grade jumps.

[sfilosa]

And it won't affect Strange Tales at all cuz hardly anybody collected them -- who wants those crappy Ayers Torch stories? The only reason to collect them is for the handful of cool covers like 107 and 114 and the Ditko Dr. Strange stories....

 

 

Man, you guys are killing me for chosing Strange Tales.

 

All I know is when they hit the consignment sites, dealer sites or eBay in CGC 9.0 or better, they sell fast and at high prices.

 

A Strange Tales #105 in CGC 9.4 with Cream to Off-White pages just sold in Heritage's Auction for over 8 times guide.

 

You guys don't love me anymore.

[Sharkey]

Oh, and to answer the pressing question (sorry, can't resist lobbing a few grenades here) the pressing paranoia police will eventually realize that you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. There are only so many books that can be significantly improved by pressing.

 

Of course, usually it involves cleaning and pressing to make the real grade jumps.

 

Absolutely. Significant improvement requires significant work.

[Sharkey]

And it won't affect Strange Tales at all cuz hardly anybody collected them -- who wants those crappy Ayers Torch stories? The only reason to collect them is for the handful of cool covers like 107 and 114 and the Ditko Dr. Strange stories....

 

 

Man, you guys are killing me for chosing Strange Tales.

 

All I know is when they hit the consignment sites, dealer sites or eBay in CGC 9.0 or better, they sell fast and at high prices.

 

A Strange Tales #105 in CGC 9.4 with Cream to Off-White pages just sold in Heritage's Auction for over 8 times guide.

 

You guys don't love me anymore.

 

Just giving you a hard time, Steve. I like early Strange Tales as much as anybody. But seriously, the Leiber/Ayers Torch stories just plain suck. Larry couldn't write and Ayers was mediocre. Even perpetual guest appearances by the FF and the Thing, Spider-Man, and IceMan couldn't help him out. They're almost as bad as the Giant Man stories in TTA 48-56.... Those two titles have to be in a steel-cage death-match fight to determine which had the lamest stories and villains. Acrobat. Sorcerer. Eel. Rabble-Rouser. Porcupine. Living Eraser. Jeez, Squirrel Girl could kick their azzes.

[Red Hook]

Why must a thread about scarcity become one about Pressing? Why, man, why??

Because the pressing paranoia posse were arguing that no book is scarce in high grade, because lower grade copies can all be pressed up into minty fresh condition.

 

That"s BS Tim. BS to your use of the phrase "posse". BS to your inaccurate genralization. I refute what you say. Show me the link, please. What "posse" said that?

 

Your pal, Red

[FlyingDonut]

Did somebody say Squirrel Girl?

 

[FFB]

Wow Steve, you're right. I just used your methodology on Millie the Model and my findings were consistent with yours on Strange Tales!

 

 

Props to Valiantman (Greg Holland) for his great Census Website.

 

Because I keep hearing about how PRESSING will make the census increase significantly for HG books and how certain forum members continue to rant about "there are lots more books to be certified so don't invest any money in them" I decided to examine a Title that I collect (SA Strange Tales). Now if you look at this analysis it shows how many BOOKS have been certified in the PAST YEAR.

 

Strange Tales Census Change Past Year

 

Quick Observations:

 

1) Other then two issues that apparently were resubmitted and received a higher grade, there has only been ONE new CGC 9.4 or higher from issue #101-113. As a matter of fact, there hasn't even been one copy of issue number #112 (unfortunately and issue I need), certified in the past year.

 

2) It does appear that there were a number of resubmits between #108-133, yet what you don't see is jumps. Yes, there are are a few 9.6's that became 9.8's, but not 9.0's go to 9.4 or higher. Are 9.6's being pressed into 9.8's or just plain resubmits, we don't know, but of course 9.6's are beautiful books in the first place so it's not like a crappy book is being pressed into a uber-high grade.

 

3) Lastly, notice that there have been ZERO #135 graded 9.4 or above (and only two 9.2's). Considering this is a KEY ISSUE, why aren't more issues being certified (or pressed) into CGC 9.4 (where the really premiums begin). But the census does show that there are still a decent amount of later issues that will grade out 9.4 or better (and my guess is that pressing has nothing to do with them being 9.4's).

 

Thoughts?

[sfilosa]

Just giving you a hard time, Steve. I like early Strange Tales as much as anybody. But seriously, the Leiber/Ayers Torch stories just plain suck. Larry couldn't write and Ayers was mediocre. Even perpetual guest appearances by the FF and the Thing, Spider-Man, and IceMan couldn't help him out. They're almost as bad as the Giant Man stories in TTA 48-56....

 

The Knife goes deep and starts to turn.

 

Heck, I just bought TTA #54 in CGC 9.4 and NOW you tell me IT SUCKS.

[the blob]

ST 110 has always been a somewhat tough book to find (compared to other marvels from the era) and has always been considered really tough in high grade. There are probably a bunch out there not being submitted because soome person_who_is_obnoxiously_self-impressed in the 70s or 80s tried to color touch VF copies into nearmintyness (somewhat like ASM 28, an often CTed book) and the owners have come to the conclusion that it's a waste to submit them.

 

I can't speak for the other books other than they're kindah low demand items other than 101 and MAYBE 135.

[sfilosa]

Wow Steve, you're right. I just used your methodology on Millie the Model and my findings were consistent with yours on Strange Tales!

 

 

 

 

The question is Strange Tales REALLY in LOW DEMAND or is the SUPPLY so LIMITED that it gives the APPEARANCE of LOW DEMAND?

 

I think the later as I will gladly pay multiples of guide for nice CGC 9.0 or higher copies of #117,118,120,123 and some of the pre Doctor Strange issues.

 

While I admit the demand for Spidey is hundreds of times higher, because of the availability, we can see that DEMAND at work on a daily basis.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Wow Steve, you're right. I just used your methodology on Millie the Model and my findings were consistent with yours on Strange Tales!

 

 

Props to Valiantman (Greg Holland) for his great Census Website.

 

Because I keep hearing about how PRESSING will make the census increase significantly for HG books and how certain forum members continue to rant about "there are lots more books to be certified so don't invest any money in them" I decided to examine a Title that I collect (SA Strange Tales). Now if you look at this analysis it shows how many BOOKS have been certified in the PAST YEAR.

 

Strange Tales Census Change Past Year

 

Quick Observations:

 

1) Other then two issues that apparently were resubmitted and received a higher grade, there has only been ONE new CGC 9.4 or higher from issue #101-113. As a matter of fact, there hasn't even been one copy of issue number #112 (unfortunately and issue I need), certified in the past year.

 

2) It does appear that there were a number of resubmits between #108-133, yet what you don't see is jumps. Yes, there are are a few 9.6's that became 9.8's, but not 9.0's go to 9.4 or higher. Are 9.6's being pressed into 9.8's or just plain resubmits, we don't know, but of course 9.6's are beautiful books in the first place so it's not like a crappy book is being pressed into a uber-high grade.

 

3) Lastly, notice that there have been ZERO #135 graded 9.4 or above (and only two 9.2's). Considering this is a KEY ISSUE, why aren't more issues being certified (or pressed) into CGC 9.4 (where the really premiums begin). But the census does show that there are still a decent amount of later issues that will grade out 9.4 or better (and my guess is that pressing has nothing to do with them being 9.4's).

 

Thoughts?

 

Don't mock Millie the Model...the last 10-12 issues are a Bee-yatch to try and locate in high grade.

[jimm94]

Hi Steve,

 

I think it's a bit of both. I love Strange Tales too, but I think the demand for them in slabbed high grade is relatively low. Unlike you, however, I would not be willing to pay multiples of guide. IMO, comparitively low poularity combined with fewer copies that were likely to have been collected/hoarded when originally published results in lower census numbers.

[Sharkey]

Just giving you a hard time, Steve. I like early Strange Tales as much as anybody. But seriously, the Leiber/Ayers Torch stories just plain suck. Larry couldn't write and Ayers was mediocre. Even perpetual guest appearances by the FF and the Thing, Spider-Man, and IceMan couldn't help him out. They're almost as bad as the Giant Man stories in TTA 48-56....

 

The Knife goes deep and starts to turn.

 

Heck, I just bought TTA #54 in CGC 9.4 and NOW you tell me IT SUCKS.

 

No, I loved those books back in the day. But now when I look at them, ugh. The stories are painful to read and the art ain't much better.

 

They gots purdy covers though! And that's all that matters when they're slabbed!

[sfilosa]

They gots purdy covers though! And that's all that matters when they're slabbed!

 

 

They weren't print in a slab? There's stories inside? Learn something new everyday.

 

OK, FORGET STRANGE TALES.

 

Ran the Census on FF and from July 2004-July 2005 there were 3 new CGC 9.4's in the first twenty issues (excluding resubmits). And there were only three resubmits, a 9.0 going to 9.4 and two 9.4's going to 9.6's.

 

From July 2003-July 2004 there were 6 new CGC 9.4's in the first twenty issues (excluding resubmits).

 

Even with the movie hype over the past year, there are less HG copies being certified. And obvioulsy, there aren't a ton of 9.2's being pressed into 9.4's, at this time.

[FlyingDonut]

Wow Steve, you're right. I just used your methodology on Millie the Model and my findings were consistent with yours on Strange Tales!

 

 

Props to Valiantman (Greg Holland) for his great Census Website.

 

Because I keep hearing about how PRESSING will make the census increase significantly for HG books and how certain forum members continue to rant about "there are lots more books to be certified so don't invest any money in them" I decided to examine a Title that I collect (SA Strange Tales). Now if you look at this analysis it shows how many BOOKS have been certified in the PAST YEAR.

 

Strange Tales Census Change Past Year

 

Quick Observations:

 

1) Other then two issues that apparently were resubmitted and received a higher grade, there has only been ONE new CGC 9.4 or higher from issue #101-113. As a matter of fact, there hasn't even been one copy of issue number #112 (unfortunately and issue I need), certified in the past year.

 

2) It does appear that there were a number of resubmits between #108-133, yet what you don't see is jumps. Yes, there are are a few 9.6's that became 9.8's, but not 9.0's go to 9.4 or higher. Are 9.6's being pressed into 9.8's or just plain resubmits, we don't know, but of course 9.6's are beautiful books in the first place so it's not like a crappy book is being pressed into a uber-high grade.

 

3) Lastly, notice that there have been ZERO #135 graded 9.4 or above (and only two 9.2's). Considering this is a KEY ISSUE, why aren't more issues being certified (or pressed) into CGC 9.4 (where the really premiums begin). But the census does show that there are still a decent amount of later issues that will grade out 9.4 or better (and my guess is that pressing has nothing to do with them being 9.4's).

 

Thoughts?

 

Don't mock Millie the Model...the last 10-12 issues are a Bee-yatch to try and locate in high grade.

 

As are the first 10

[skybolt]

They gots purdy covers though! And that's all that matters when they're slabbed!

 

 

They weren't print in a slab? There's stories inside? Learn something new everyday.

 

OK, FORGET STRANGE TALES.

 

Ran the Census on FF and from July 2004-July 2005 there were 3 new CGC 9.4's in the first twenty issues (excluding resubmits). And there were only three resubmits, a 9.0 going to 9.4 and two 9.4's going to 9.6's.

 

From July 2003-July 2004 there were 6 new CGC 9.4's in the first twenty issues (excluding resubmits).

 

Even with the movie hype over the past year, there are less HG copies being certified. And obvioulsy, there aren't a ton of 9.2's being pressed into 9.4's, at this time.

 

I'm a little confused as to how the census numbers would decrease for resubmits. You'd think that if someone was resubmitting their book to gain a higher grade, they wouldn't include the original label to influence CGC's decision. On the other hand, maybe they mailed in the label after receiving their book back from CGC.