RARE DETECTIVE COMICS #33 up for sale

[Wayne-Tec]

So we have these four so far:

 

1-Allentown

2-copy discovered by Sparkle City, sold to Geppi

2-Mile High

4-recent 8.0 in Heritage...

 

and number 5???

might be time to update our board census

 

You know I'm always interested in these types of things, so how many total copies of Tec #33 would you estimate to still exist?

 

I'm going to guess somewhere between 150-350?

that might be a reasonable estimate...my old 4.5 ow/w copy (now a 5.0) was nice to own for a year +

 

I could only imagine; that must have been an amazing book to own.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if there were 250 of fewer copies to be honest with you.

 

54 total graded copies (only 27 of them are unrestored) and I'd be a bit surprised if there were 200+ raw copies floating around out there.

ryan, I think you are underestimating the # of raw copies... I believe you have mentioned before you are in your early 20's so your experience might be limited (though not un appreciated (thumbs u )

from some of us old timers, I can tell you that there are hundreds and hundreds of raw copies out there in collections and in invetories... I have probably seen 50+ copies myself over the years, and I find it highly unlikely/improbable I have seen 20% of all copies...my guess is the # is closer to 500+, but alas, as with any speculation, we will never know (thumbs u

 

Me...both young and possessing less experience than some of the most knowledgeable collectors in the hobby?

 

Gator, quite frankly I'm a bit...okay you may be right.

 

Nevertheless, I never lack the enthusiasm to learn from those more experienced. (thumbs u

 

I do not have your level of experience; nor have I had the pleasure of being able to see so many raw copies of mega-key books the caliber of Tec #33. So call my guesstimates less founded if you will; I just have a hard time believing there to be that many raw copies tucked away in private collections.

 

Could I be mistaken? Of course as we really have no way of knowing for sure.

your enthusiasm is appreciated for sure (thumbs u

 

what remains, is what you "believe" (or me, or anyone) has to be based in some meritt, on "facts" or extrapolation of available information.... just because one's knowledge or information is limited, shouldn't limit one's opinion or ability to accept as "fact" what might seem "hard to believe"... trust me, there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of copies of tec 33 out there ... "believe it, or not " Ripley 2010

 

 

I don't question that my knowledge is limited; but I don't think that automatically disqualifies my opinion's chances of being correct (although I'm not claiming that was your implication). For instance, I could have a personal guesstimate on the higher end with the same amount of limited knowledge and if your guesstimate ended up being correct, so would mine despite that same amount of limited information.

 

Now, is there any way for either of our guesstimates to be proven "factual"? That might prove to be far more difficult.

 

We know that there are 54 copies on the census. Could a few of them be re-subs? Possibly, but lets assume that CGC has graded 54 different copies total.

 

Now you say that you yourself have seen about 50+ raw copies. The next logical question would be to ask if any of those 50+ copies have become some of the 54 copies currently graded by CGC? Then, is there a chance that any of the raw copies you have seen over the years may have been instances of the same copy popping up more than once? I don't raise this question to question your ability to distinguish one copy from another (as I'm sure your quite seasoned in being able to do so) but would it be fair to assume that a copy or two of the 50+ you've seen over your years in the hobby may have been the same copy more than once?

 

But any of those "what ifs" probably wouldn't make any more of a difference than a copy here and a copy there; I realize you're looking at the bigger picture.

 

54 total slabbed copies, lets say 60 raw copies you've seen (since you said 50+)...that would be 114 total copies that you know of for sure. I'm sure that if you exausted every source available to you, you'd discover more.

 

IMO though...385+ raw copies that have both never been graded and never past by your eyes is a bit high of an estimate.

 

Now, I know that you have brought up the many large private collections of books in which the owners have no interest in slabbing or sharing at cons, the internet, etc. That's a very valid point and not one that I'm discounting.

 

I'm guessing that many of the owners of these private collections are older collectors who might not be too interested in the boards, the internet, or taking their books out of their private collections to share with the public. I'm also guessing that a number of those owners may be close to or already retired. At some point (and I imagine this has happened already in some instances), I would imagine that these private collections would be offered for sale to the general public.

 

I just have a hard time believing that there might be 400 or so raw copies coming out of the woodwork over the next decade or two. Again, I could be 100% mistaken as I'm not claiming to have a more credible opinion; it just seems to be a bit of a stretch given the limited number of copies that we have seen hit the market over the past few decades.

[rodan57]

I wouldn't be shocked if there were 250 of fewer copies to be honest with you.

 

54 total graded copies (only 27 of them are unrestored) and I'd be a bit surprised if there were 200+ raw copies floating around out there.

ryan, I think you are underestimating the # of raw copies... I believe you have mentioned before you are in your early 20's so your experience might be limited (though not un appreciated (thumbs u )

from some of us old timers, I can tell you that there are hundreds and hundreds of raw copies out there in collections and in invetories... I have probably seen 50+ copies myself over the years, and I find it highly unlikely/improbable I have seen 20% of all copies...my guess is the # is closer to 500+, but alas, as with any speculation, we will never know (thumbs u

 

Me...both young and possessing less experience than some of the most knowledgeable collectors in the hobby?

 

Gator, quite frankly I'm a bit...okay you may be right.

 

Nevertheless, I never lack the enthusiasm to learn from those more experienced. (thumbs u

 

I do not have your level of experience; nor have I had the pleasure of being able to see so many raw copies of mega-key books the caliber of Tec #33. So call my guesstimates less founded if you will; I just have a hard time believing there to be that many raw copies tucked away in private collections.

 

Could I be mistaken? Of course as we really have no way of knowing for sure.

your enthusiasm is appreciated for sure (thumbs u

 

what remains, is what you "believe" (or me, or anyone) has to be based in some meritt, on "facts" or extrapolation of available information.... just because one's knowledge or information is limited, shouldn't limit one's opinion or ability to accept as "fact" what might seem "hard to believe"... trust me, there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of copies of tec 33 out there ... "believe it, or not " Ripley 2010

 

 

I don't question that my knowledge is limited; but I don't think that automatically disqualifies my opinion's chances of being correct (although I'm not claiming that was your implication). For instance, I could have a personal guesstimate on the higher end with the same amount of limited knowledge and if your guesstimate ended up being correct, so would mine despite that same amount of limited information.

 

Now, is there any way for either of our guesstimates to be proven "factual"? That might prove to be far more difficult.

 

We know that there are 54 copies on the census. Could a few of them be re-subs? Possibly, but lets assume that CGC has graded 54 different copies total.

 

Now you say that you yourself have seen about 50+ raw copies. The next logical question would be to ask if any of those 50+ copies have become some of the 54 copies currently graded by CGC? Then, is there a chance that any of the raw copies you have seen over the years may have been instances of the same copy popping up more than once? I don't raise this question to question your ability to distinguish one copy from another (as I'm sure your quite seasoned in being able to do so) but would it be fair to assume that a copy or two of the 50+ you've seen over your years in the hobby may have been the same copy more than once?

 

But any of those "what ifs" probably wouldn't make any more of a difference than a copy here and a copy there; I realize you're looking at the bigger picture.

 

54 total slabbed copies, lets say 60 raw copies you've seen (since you said 50+)...that would be 114 total copies that you know of for sure. I'm sure that if you exausted every source available to you, you'd discover more.

 

IMO though...385+ raw copies that have both never been graded and never past by your eyes is a bit high of an estimate.

 

Now, I know that you have brought up the many large private collections of books in which the owners have no interest in slabbing or sharing at cons, the internet, etc. That's a very valid point and not one that I'm discounting.

 

I'm guessing that many of the owners of these private collections are older collectors who might not be too interested in the boards, the internet, or taking their books out of their private collections to share with the public. I'm also guessing that a number of those owners may be close to or already retired. At some point (and I imagine this has happened already in some instances), I would imagine that these private collections would be offered for sale to the general public.

 

I just have a hard time believing that there might be 400 or so raw copies coming out of the woodwork over the next decade or two. Again, I could be 100% mistaken as I'm not claiming to have a more credible opinion; it just seems to be a bit of a stretch given the limited number of copies that we have seen hit the market over the past few decades.

 

One person has seen fifty copies.

[G.A.tor]

 

IMO though...385+ raw copies that have both never been graded and never past by your eyes is a bit high of an estimate.

 

 

and yet, given the scope of collecting (both interms of #'s and geographical proximity), and the very limited exposure I have had to of seen as many as I have (I recall a cbg ad back in the mid 90's where a dozen + were advertised just that one month), i would say it proves just the opposite, that there are FAR more copies out there that I couldn't have possibly seen (thumbs u

 

I just have a hard time believing that there might be 400 or so raw copies coming out of the woodwork over the next decade or two. Again, I could be 100% mistaken as I'm not claiming to have a more credible opinion; it just seems to be a bit of a stretch given the limited number of copies that we have seen hit the market over the past few decades.

 

and I have a hard time believing there are not 400 or so raw copies out there in collections, many of which we might never see or hear about or might not ever change hands... as good as the "internet" is, etc, thousands and thousands and thousands of comics trade hands every day, and we never hear a peep about them... sheer statistical probability dictates that 200 is an "absurdly" low #... to be honest, it would dictate that 500 is "absurdly" low too, but one has to take in all the info and form there own opinion!

 

for there to be 54 cgc'd, and cgc is such a SMALL sampling of books out there, again, I think that extrapolates and supports the notion that there are at least 10x that number out there (maybe many many times more than #) (thumbs u

 

 

Again, I could be 100% mistaken as I'm not claiming to have a more credible opinion; it just seems to be a bit of a stretch given the limited number of copies that we have seen hit the market over the past few decades.

another point that supports a larger number...there have been hundreds and hundreds of tec 33 sales over the past decades...not 54, but litterally 400 alone if you consider 20 a year for 20 years (or if you go back to the 70's, then 10 a year for the past 40 years...a really LOW estimate) ..seems more than "reasonable" (sure some are same copies resold, etc, but again, sold copies only represent some % of existing copies)... having collected for 25+ years, having been to hundreds of conventions, and having spend 8 hours a day, for the past umpteen years following the tec market, I feel I am qualified to make this statement and I would appreciate your vote on Nov 1st

[G.A.tor]

here is more "food for thought"...if I was debating, I am certain I would win

 

there have been

Submissions: 3,582 of 1930's comic books (of which tec 33 falls into that category, Nov of 1939 I believe)...

of the 3582, that means 54 tec 33's have been cgc'd (I have not looked this up, just taking ryans word)...

that is telling me that 1.5% of all the 1930s GA submissions, have been tec 33's...

 

so, using ryan's logic, since 1.5% of all GA submissions are tec 33's (since he is basing estimates on the census, right), that means if there are even 1,000,000 raw golden age comics from the 1930's out there (would anyone guess that number is probably WAY low), then extrapolate out that and that means there must be 15,000 tec 33's right

 

ok, just kidding, but my point is, the census is only a small fraction of submitted books....so, it stands to reason (common sense even) that if 54 have been slabbed, then 10x that amount surely exist out there ...maybe even many more...would that be a 'reasonable" assumption

[Wayne-Tec]

and yet, given the scope of collecting (both interms of #'s and geographical proximity), and the very limited exposure I have had to of seen as many as I have (I recall a cbg ad back in the mid 90's where a dozen + were advertised just that one month), i would say it proves just the opposite, that there are FAR more copies out there that I couldn't have possibly seen (thumbs u ...

 

 

and I have a hard time believing there are not 400 or so raw copies out there in collections, many of which we might never see or hear about or might not ever change hands... as good as the "internet" is, etc, thousands and thousands and thousands of comics trade hands every day, and we never hear a peep about them... sheer statistical probability dictates that 200 is an "absurdly" low #... to be honest, it would dictate that 500 is "absurdly" low too, but one has to take in all the info and form there own opinion!

 

for there to be 54 cgc'd, and cgc is such a SMALL sampling of books out there, again, I think that extrapolates and supports the notion that there are at least 10x that number out there (maybe many many times more than #) (thumbs u

 

I think where our opinions differ is regarding the amount of books to be found in these private collections and the % of books submitted to CGC.

 

I realize that the internet does not represent the entire picture but it seems that online at least...for every raw copy we see sold, we see multiple slabbed copies; just the opposite of the disparity you referred to.

 

Now, I would agree that there are certainly more raw copies than slabbed copies...I just don't feel that these unannounced sales, trades, and privately owned copies constitute the great majority of the total number of copies left in existence.

 

I think that your higher-ended (at least in comparison to mine) estimations are reflective of your belief in the many copies that might exist within these unknown collections.

 

I'm not saying your wrong as you know how much I respect your expertise; you might very well be correct for all I know. It's just he basis for the belief in all of these unknown copies that I'm uncertain about.

 

 

[Wayne-Tec]

here is more "food for thought"...if I was debating, I am certain I would win

 

there have been

Submissions: 3,582 of 1930's comic books (of which tec 33 falls into that category, Nov of 1939 I believe)...

of the 3582, that means 54 tec 33's have been cgc'd (I have not looked this up, just taking ryans word)...

that is telling me that 1.5% of all the 1930s GA submissions, have been tec 33's...

 

so, using ryan's logic, since 1.5% of all GA submissions are tec 33's (since he is basing estimates on the census, right), that means if there are even 1,000,000 raw golden age comics from the 1930's out there (would anyone guess that number is probably WAY low), then extrapolate out that and that means there must be 15,000 tec 33's right

 

ok, just kidding, but my point is, the census is only a small fraction of submitted books....so, it stands to reason (common sense even) that if 54 have been slabbed, then 10x that amount surely exist out there ...maybe even many more...would that be a 'reasonable" assumption

 

Personally, I feel that the CGC census figures can be deceptive in that the more popular, desirable, marketable, books often tend to be slabbed before the countless % of books in which few people would be interested in grading; for either personal or financial reasons.

 

Tec #33 might account for 1.5% of 1930's GA submissions but again, that % is deceptive in that there is reason to slab Tec #33's that wouldn't likely apply to the great % of GA books that exist.

[walclark]

I was told there would be no math.

[G.A.tor]

what is funny, is that I have seen and documented FAR more raw tec 33 sales just in the past 5 years than slabbed...maybe 3 to 1... what are you basing this on

 

...for every raw copy we see sold, we see multiple slabbed copies

 

I think I have found your flaw, as that statement is wrong

 

again, I probably have followed or know about no less than 30 raw sales of tec 33 (most restored, probably 75%) in the past 5 years, so make that 50 give or take for 8 yrs gpa has been tracking (again, the 6-10 a year deal)... heck, it seems like metro sold like 9 raw copies one year alone (give or take a few months, and I am not counting those and I might be exaggerating, but I am trying to make a point)

 

in the past 8 years that gpa has tracked GA sales, I believe they only show 23 diff slabbed tec 33's sold...and of course, the same couple of copies have been going between members here on the boards, but those copies were at some point part of the "23"

 

 

 

not trying to be "harsh", just pointing out the flaws in your opinion...gotta know the facts first

[G.A.tor]

here is more "food for thought"...if I was debating, I am certain I would win

 

there have been

Submissions: 3,582 of 1930's comic books (of which tec 33 falls into that category, Nov of 1939 I believe)...

of the 3582, that means 54 tec 33's have been cgc'd (I have not looked this up, just taking ryans word)...

that is telling me that 1.5% of all the 1930s GA submissions, have been tec 33's...

 

so, using ryan's logic, since 1.5% of all GA submissions are tec 33's (since he is basing estimates on the census, right), that means if there are even 1,000,000 raw golden age comics from the 1930's out there (would anyone guess that number is probably WAY low), then extrapolate out that and that means there must be 15,000 tec 33's right

 

ok, just kidding, but my point is, the census is only a small fraction of submitted books....so, it stands to reason (common sense even) that if 54 have been slabbed, then 10x that amount surely exist out there ...maybe even many more...would that be a 'reasonable" assumption

 

Personally, I feel that the CGC census figures can be deceptive in that the more popular, desirable, marketable, books often tend to be slabbed before the countless % of books in which few people would be interested in grading; for either personal or financial reasons.

 

Tec #33 might account for 1.5% of 1930's GA submissions but again, that % is deceptive in that there is reason to slab Tec #33's that wouldn't likely apply to the great % of GA books that exist.

are you kidding me

every dc (not just the superhero) book from the 30's has value making it worth slabbing, many many far more valueable than tec 33 ... in fact, probably most all comics from the 1930's have value making them "slab worthy"...I say there is no deception to the %, it is a sampling...

all the early new comics, detective comics, action comics, more funs, new adventure, adventure, all american, superman, first few flash...

about the only dc's not worth slabbing from the 30's are Movie comics and mutt and jeff...all the rest are ... and I am not even talking other publishers, many of which have decent slabbing rates compared to raw comics...

 

nope, sorry, I don't buy it

[G.A.tor]

I was told there would be no math.

there is always math

[t3quila]

I'm sure Rick is correct, but I'm comforted by the knowledge that there are only about 30 unrestored Tec 28's out there

[G.A.tor]

I'm sure Rick is correct, but I'm comforted by the knowledge that there are only about 30 unrestored Tec 28's out there

of course no way to prove anyone is "correct"...but, given historical evidence and current known sales, etc, it should be fairly obvious that the number is larger than one might think...

 

now, tec 28 is a different story...only 5 issues before 33, but a non bat cover, leading to probably less folks saving, etc...

I only have 17 recorded sales of 28 (gpa has 8, about 1/3 of the tec 33)...I have 17, about 1/3 of the 50 or so sales I know about tec 33 wise...and there are only 21 cgc'd copies (about 40% of 33 #'s), so I suspect that an estimate of 150 or so copies is "rational"...

[Wayne-Tec]

here is more "food for thought"...if I was debating, I am certain I would win

 

there have been

Submissions: 3,582 of 1930's comic books (of which tec 33 falls into that category, Nov of 1939 I believe)...

of the 3582, that means 54 tec 33's have been cgc'd (I have not looked this up, just taking ryans word)...

that is telling me that 1.5% of all the 1930s GA submissions, have been tec 33's...

 

so, using ryan's logic, since 1.5% of all GA submissions are tec 33's (since he is basing estimates on the census, right), that means if there are even 1,000,000 raw golden age comics from the 1930's out there (would anyone guess that number is probably WAY low), then extrapolate out that and that means there must be 15,000 tec 33's right

 

ok, just kidding, but my point is, the census is only a small fraction of submitted books....so, it stands to reason (common sense even) that if 54 have been slabbed, then 10x that amount surely exist out there ...maybe even many more...would that be a 'reasonable" assumption

 

Personally, I feel that the CGC census figures can be deceptive in that the more popular, desirable, marketable, books often tend to be slabbed before the countless % of books in which few people would be interested in grading; for either personal or financial reasons.

 

Tec #33 might account for 1.5% of 1930's GA submissions but again, that % is deceptive in that there is reason to slab Tec #33's that wouldn't likely apply to the great % of GA books that exist.

are you kidding me

every dc (not just the superhero) book from the 30's has value making it worth slabbing, many many far more valueable than tec 33 ... in fact, probably most all comics from the 1930's have value making them "slab worthy"...I say there is no deception to the %, it is a sampling...

all the early new comics, detective comics, action comics, more funs, new adventure, adventure, all american, superman, first few flash...

about the only dc's not worth slabbing from the 30's are Movie comics and mutt and jeff...all the rest are ... and I am not even talking other publishers, many of which have decent slabbing rates compared to raw comics...

 

nope, sorry, I don't buy it

 

I wasn't trying to imply that all of the 1930's GA books are not worthy of being slabbed but rather, there is a greater degree of motivation to be had in slabbing a book like Tec #33.

 

This might be a bad example, but there are have been 57 copies of All-Star Comics #3 graded by CGC; there have been only 39 copies of All-Star Comics #4 graded by CGC.

 

Does that mean that All-Star #4 is a fair amount rarer than All-Star #3; or is it because there is a greater motivation to have the bigger key graded?

 

My point being...yes there is usually going to be a financial benefit to slabbing most books in this day and age; but there is an added incentive to getting the mega-key issues graded...therefore the census figures can be a bit skewed in certain instances.

[G.A.tor]

 

I wasn't trying to imply that all of the 1930's GA books are not worthy of being slabbed but rather, there is a greater degree of motivation to be had in slabbing a book like Tec #33.

 

This might be a bad example, but there are have been 57 copies of All-Star Comics #3 graded by CGC; there have been only 39 copies of All-Star Comics #4 graded by CGC.

 

Does that mean that All-Star #4 is a fair amount rarer than All-Star #3; or is it because there is a greater motivation to have the bigger key graded?

 

My point being...yes there is usually going to be a financial benefit to slabbing most books in this day and age; but there is an added incentive to getting the mega-key issues graded...therefore the census figures can be a bit skewed in certain instances.

I hear you...

as 3 and as 4 are good examples...surely as3 is more valuable, but I suspect there are more as3 copies out there than as 4 too...so it might be in the correct ratio anyway (or not )...

who knows, but it is fun to talk about (thumbs u

[Blind Owl]

Rick...sometimes you share too much info...but I respect you for it... (thumbs u

 

I agree that there many more copies (just as you have stated) of 'Tec #33 in the "public domain" than the CGC census suggests!!!

 

This is also true for ANY comic available anywhere...the fact is most GA collectors DO NOT slab their books unless they are planning on selling them.

 

Great discussion here....hope I didn't derail anything....

[Point Five]

Ditto, I enjoy the discussion and musings re numbers of existing copies. I am always curious how many of these treasures are left! (thumbs u

[Blind Owl]

So as a general rule of thumb...I would say that whatever is currently on the CGC census...just multiply it by 10...to get a rough estimate of how many copies exist on most books if they are CGC worthy to start with...

[Larryw7]

about the only dc's not worth slabbing from the 30's are Movie comics and mutt and jeff

 

Don't want to completely derail this thread, but I would think that Movie Comics #1 and the last issue with the Lugosi cover are worth slabbing. The others, not so much.

 

And let me add a :thumbsup: to all of the insight and info that Rick offers us here on the boards.

[G.A.tor]

Ditto, I enjoy the discussion and musings re numbers of existing copies. I am always curious how many of these treasures are left! (thumbs u

speaking of treasures

[G.A.tor]

about the only dc's not worth slabbing from the 30's are Movie comics and mutt and jeff

 

Don't want to completely derail this thread, but I would think that Movie Comics #1 and the last issue with the Lugosi cover are worth slabbing. The others, not so much.

 

And let me add a :thumbsup: to all of the insight and info that Rick offers us here on the boards.

ok, you made me look

movie comics

#1-16 copies

#2-3 copies

#3-5 copies

#4-2 copies

#5-5 copies

#6-4 copies...

 

so, #1 has 4x that avg submission rate (thumbs u