The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Randall Ries]

2 hours ago, RonS2112 said:

Wow.....your post really misses the boat.

"....people who either HAD a lot of money to begin with or weren't affected all that much by COVID".  OR they are people over-leveraging themselves with money they don't have, because they think they can make the easy buck.  And THOSE are the people who are going to bail the first time they get left holding the bag on a book on which they spent 3x what they should have.

"Wow"? Really?

Are you "smh"? "wtf"? "rotflmao?" Let's just include your thought that there are leveraged people who overextended themselves as well. I am pretty sure there is a lot of "new" money being thrown around right now as well.

[Poekaymon]

13 hours ago, RonS2112 said:

Yes, but you are talking from the perspective of a person who's into the market for the long haul.  The equivalent would be someone (like me) whobought their 70's and 80's comics off the rack at cover price.  That isn't generally the kind of person who causes bubbles in a market.  It's the short-term get-rich-quick guy we're talking about.

Um that was my entire point.  The stock market is one of the most reliable, steady investments yet invented by man, but you need to be in it for the long haul (though it doesn't have to be 50 years long haul as in your example--5-10 years is fine).  And I apply a similar strategy to collectibles.  I don't think anyone is disputing that both can have short-term volatility--but fearmongering about fluctuations is silly and a demonstrably losing strategy long term.   If you can't handle a drop, whether in collectibles or in your brokerage account, because you're on fixed income or whatever, then you shouldn't be investing in either one, regardless.  End of story.  

My fundamental disagreement is that this current collectibles market is driven by get rich quick short term people who can't survive drops and so an industry-wide crash is imminent.  (At least, one that will reach stuff like AF15 or whatever.)  First, from what I have seen, a lot of collectors of other media made out like bandits last year and are branching out, and new people are coming in as comics are increasingly seen as more legitimate.  These people naturally gravitate to the most obvious and published books--the first issues and first appearances of major characters.  (AF15, ASM1, ASM129, X-Men1, H1, H181, etc--the mega keys).  These people have money and losing tens of thousands of dollars doesn't faze them.  Second, I personally (and I doubt I'm the only one) have taken huge gains over the last six months or so in the modern stuff (Morales, Gwen Stacy, Momoko, Knull, etc) and moved it into those older mega keys.  So I think if this crash that some people in this thread are predicting (and, I think, hoping for) does happen, it won't start with the megas, and may not even reach them at all.  I really don't care either way--I'm not selling if they continue to go up in value or drop back to 2015 levels.  I don't need to sell any time soon, and I just like the books.  

Edited March 29, 2021 by Poekaymon

[Poekaymon]

12 hours ago, snitzer said:

In exactly a year some went went from market heading lower doomers to market now too high ones 

Just buy what ya love 

Yep--Buy what you like, spend what you can afford, and don't get caught up in the day to day.  Works for stocks and works for comics too.