The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Poekaymon]

16 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

I would argue the stock market is the same thing.  Requires not a lot of skill if you are long in the market and 10-12% return usually over the long run investing in blue chip stocks.  We both know the blue chip comics.

Listen the problem I am having is people think this is shocking.  Yes, I am in the camp all of these books were undervalued, especially books like FF 1, 5, and X-Men 1.  If a Mike Trout rookie card is worth 4.6 million to someone I think its fair to believe some of the most important pop-culture characters in American history needed to get their much deserved due. 

You don't even have to pick stocks--just do an index tracker and turn on dividend reinvestment and don't look for 10 years for super reliable, steady returns.  

I do get a bit of the shock about some of the stuff--even I am a bit taken aback by current Ultimate Fallout and Star Wars pricing--but not about X-Men 1 or H181 or AF15 or whatever.  Those "blue chips" have quite reliable upward trajectories and are super sensible targets for the current influx.    

 

[Poekaymon]

1 minute ago, Darkowl said:

Weren't you going to "yield the floor"? 

Wait, did you think that meant I had to quit the thread entirely?  I was just saying that I would stop trying to give you investment advice, and I did.  Was never for my benefit anyway--do what you like, friend.

[thehumantorch]

19 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

I would argue the stock market is the same thing.  Requires not a lot of skill if you are long in the market and 10-12% return usually over the long run investing in blue chip stocks.  We both know the blue chip comics.

Listen the problem I am having is people think this is shocking.  Yes, I am in the camp all of these books were undervalued, especially books like FF 1, 5, and X-Men 1.  If a Mike Trout rookie card is worth 4.6 million to someone I think its fair to believe some of the most important pop-culture characters in American history needed to get their much deserved due. 

The value for any of these collectibles is what someone else is willing to pay for it.  Compared to today clearly these books are valued higher now.  If the current trend to value rookie cards or comics or other collectibles as investments continues to increase we haven't seen anything yet.

[Darkowl]

Just now, Poekaymon said:

Wait, did you think that meant I had to quit the thread entirely?  I was just saying that I would stop trying to give you investment advice, and I did.  Was never for my benefit anyway--do what you like, friend.

That was a rhetorical question. 

[NewWorldOrder]

1 minute ago, thehumantorch said:

The value for any of these collectibles is what someone else is willing to pay for it.  Compared to today clearly these books are valued higher now.  If the current trend to value rookie cards or comics or other collectibles as investments continues to increase we haven't seen anything yet.

So we actually agree then?

[thehumantorch]

2 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

So we actually agree then?

Don't get crazy  .  I don't agree that investing in stocks and comics is the same thing.  Businesses  have an underlying value based on the profits they make and stock represents a part ownership of that business while a collectible has value based on what someone is willing to pay for it.  I think we agree that buyers are now investing in collectibles of all types and that is a powerful reclassification and has had a huge affect on prices.   

[NewWorldOrder]

3 minutes ago, thehumantorch said:

Don't get crazy  .  I don't agree that investing in stocks and comics is the same thing.  Businesses  have an underlying value based on the profits they make and stock represents a part ownership of that business while a collectible has value based on what someone is willing to pay for it.  I think we agree that buyers are now investing in collectibles of all types and that is a powerful reclassification and has had a huge affect on prices.   

No I meant when you said "we haven't seen anything yet."

[Darkowl]

7 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

Again not seeing your point.

Shares of Amazon used to be $20

These aren't shares. They're comic books, and their financial genealogy is also very different than the stock market, yet people continue to treat this as if they're one in the same. Truly bizarre. 

But my main point is that multiple comic books have doubled, tripled in value within a few short months.  Anyone collecting long enough knows that this is NOT normal behavior, at least not to this degree, and I think it deserves to be questioned. 

[thehumantorch]

7 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

No I meant when you said "we haven't seen anything yet."

Quite possible.  Or prices could crater from here.  Or prices could plateau and then start rising again down the road as we've seen many times in the past.

I do think a lot of bread and butter collectors are getting priced out of the hobby.  Guys with average means.  I'd imagine some will sell and move on and some will look for cheaper books and cheaper genres to buy. 

[NewWorldOrder]

1 minute ago, Darkowl said:

These aren't shares. They're comic books, and their financial genealogy is also very different than the stock market, yet people continue to treat this as if they're one in the same. Truly bizarre. 

But my main point is that multiple comic books have doubled, tripled in value within a few short months.  Anyone collecting long enough knows that this is NOT normal behavior, at least not to this degree, and I think it deserves to be questioned. 

Comics books are a commodity (thank god...2006 CGC boards where you at?).

Anything you can buy and sell on tradable platform is a stock to me where the value can fluctuate. 

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAuctions%2Fdefault.asp%3FFocused%3D1%26x%3D0%26y%3D0%26pg%3D171%23Item_1464054&id=1464054&itemType=0

Are you scared of the new CGC 9.0 high?  

[Darkowl]

26 minutes ago, thehumantorch said:

The value for any of these collectibles is what someone else is willing to pay for it.  Compared to today clearly these books are valued higher now.  If the current trend to value rookie cards or comics or other collectibles as investments continues to increase we haven't seen anything yet.

That's the thing, IF the current trend continues to increase. It very well could. It very well couldn't. 

But the problem is that we really don't know how much of this growth has occurred due to covid and lockdowns. If it's a significant percentage, then I can only imagine what kind of correction we're going to see once the world returns to normality, and people start putting their money back into the things they once did. Their withdrawal from the current market could have some sort of an impact. 

And will that act as some sort of domino effect, causing others who never really cared about the hobby to begin with to panic and fold? How long are the speculators going to play this game? 

It'll be interesting to see how things play out in the next year or two. 

[Darkowl]

18 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

Anything you can buy and sell on tradable platform is a stock to me where the value can fluctuate. 

That's fine if that's your personal approach, but I'm not sure how useful it is to use the nature of shares to counteract concern about the recent comic book market spike, especially when you consider the differences between the two.

Edited March 26, 2021 by Darkowl

[Poekaymon]

30 minutes ago, thehumantorch said:

Businesses  have an underlying value based on the profits they make and stock represents a part ownership of that business while a collectible has value based on what someone is willing to pay for it. 

I think I agree with your overall point, but there are definitely lots of stocks that are driven by things other than their profits/viability as a business and are pure speculation or other factors.  ie, what someone is willing (or in some cases, forced) to pay for it--GME, for example.  So in both cases you have speculation plays and your "blue chips."  To me, the speculation is stuff like modern variants or highly tangential/rumor driven stuff.  Maybe they'll pan out, and maybe Tesla will make as much as Apple some day--but maybe not.  So I don't mind some caution about those or in general, but that's a "gut" kind of thing.  I do have confidence in the mega keys, however, just as I have confidence in the S&P500, both of which have verifiable, quantifiable trends supporting that confidence.  Of course, it's entirely possible that in 5 years the primary currency of the US will be bullets, canned food, and Nuka Cola caps.  I tend to think we'll be fine though.

[NewWorldOrder]

1 minute ago, Darkowl said:

That's fine if that's your personal approach, but I'm not sure how useful it is to use the nature of shares to counteract concern about the recent comic book market spike.

Collectibles in general has been a safe place to put money into for past 20-30 years and obviously diversify into other financial vehicles, but that fact that you are getting scared about Hulk 181's is literally weird to me.

[Randall Ries]

1 hour ago, thehumantorch said:

I've invested in the stock market for 30 years.  It isn't a Ponzi scheme although sometimes it doesn't make sense.  It's like buying a small business, how much money does it make, what will it cost me to buy a piece, how competent is management, what future possible risks and what future possible positives do I see for the business.  If you can buy a piece of a business spitting out profits and growing profits you're ultimately gonna make money.

The crazy thing is, any fool can make money buying comics right now.  Buy any key comic at market price or heck, even overpay for it, wait for it to appreciate as it always does and then flip it or wait even longer for value to climb higher.  It's so easy and so obvious, and people with zero connection to the hobby or understanding of the hobby can jump in and ride the train up.  And that should scare us because when it's so obvious and easy there's something wrong.  

Yes. There is something wrong. That's why I named the thread what I did. I really don't like the idea of stock market jockeys interfering with the comic book market. It doesn't feel right. Funny thing is we encouraged people to join the fun for decades because we were comic book "geeks" and wanted to be validated. I never wanted that. Cult followings are the best followings. Unless it's a real cult like Jim Jones type stuff. Now, we will have values dictated back to us by people who just want to fleece other people. People who know nothing about the hobby and couldn't care less.

[thehumantorch]

5 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

I think I agree with your overall point, but there are definitely lots of stocks that are driven by things other than their profits/viability as a business and are pure speculation or other factors.  ie, what someone is willing (or in some cases, forced) to pay for it--GME, for example.  So in both cases you have speculation plays and your "blue chips."  To me, the speculation is stuff like modern variants or highly tangential/rumor driven stuff.  Maybe they'll pan out, and maybe Tesla will make as much as Apple some day--but maybe not.  So I don't mind some caution about those or in general, but that's a "gut" kind of thing.  I do have confidence in the mega keys, however, just as I have confidence in the S&P500, both of which have verifiable, quantifiable trends supporting that confidence.  Of course, it's entirely possible that in 5 years the primary currency of the US will be bullets, canned food, and Nuka Cola caps.  I tend to think we'll be fine though.

Sure, future expectations and emotion can come into play and some people flat out gamble in the stock market.   But ultimately a company will have to make money and justify it's stock price

[NewWorldOrder]

1 minute ago, thehumantorch said:

Sure, future expectations and emotion can come into play and some people flat out gamble in the stock market.   But ultimately a company will have to make money and justify it's stock price

Well thats why when Disney bought Marvel all your comic stock became blue chips! 

[MetalPSI]

Just now, NewWorldOrder said:

Well thats why when Disney bought Marvel all your comic stock became blue chips! 

The new Alien series sucks

[NewWorldOrder]

1 minute ago, Dr. Dank said:

The new Alien series sucks

So does Star Wars, and all the woke garbage.

I am assuming you are talking about new comic books, well I dont care about the new comics.  

Edited March 26, 2021 by NewWorldOrder

[thehumantorch]

2 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

Yes. There is something wrong. That's why I named the thread what I did. I really don't like the idea of stock market jockeys interfering with the comic book market. It doesn't feel right. Funny thing is we encouraged people to join the fun for decades because we were comic book "geeks" and wanted to be validated. I never wanted that. Cult followings are the best followings. Unless it's a real cult like Jim Jones type stuff. Now, we will have values dictated back to us by people who just want to fleece other people. People who know nothing about the hobby and couldn't care less.

What we want doesn't matter.  Clearly there is money flooding into this hobby.  When you see companies like Rally Road selling partial shares of collectibles we have to realize that the times are changing.