The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Randall Ries]

1 minute ago, the blob said:

Reece is one of the few high end dealers I have actually bought from (aside from cheap books discounted at the end of shows). And I have sold to him. I think he got a good deal on the X-Men 1 I sold him. Wish i had kept it.

someone in the BA thread posted a clink auction that was 400% a current BIN on ebay for a cgc book. just stupid. yes, the clink book was a nicer looking 9.6, but still

Think it's safe to say that there is a foreign element in the collecting hobby now. I really hope it doesn't become like a stock trading thing.

[the blob]

7 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

Some people like your Dad have a "soul". Money isn't the end-all-be-all. I love archaeology. I can't go to Egypt or Turkey or Israel. But I ran around in the woods around here and found many sites that blew my head off. I would take my 2 week vacation and spend it exploring the woods and fields around here. I'd go back to work and be resentful. I hated it. That's when I decided to become self employed. Make a little more money and set my own hours so I COULD focus on things that are really what life is SUPPOSED to be about. Learning. Connection to our surroundings. DECENT interaction with people of like mind.

when he was older he wished he had been a little better at making money though, or at least investing. having to go back to work at 69 when my mother got sick and the only job he could get was a ticket taker/popcorn sweeper at a movie theatre making minimum wage.

[Randall Ries]

1 minute ago, Darkowl said:

Haha! The best? Man, I don't know. In some ways, yes. Absolutely, but this is without a doubt the HARDEST gig I've ever had, and people will never understand that until they've done it themselves.

My friends think it's a giant party and I get to play Xbox all day. Dude, I wish! But it's laundry, dishes, grocery shopping, taking the kids to school, picking them up from school, scheduling Dr. appointments, clothing them, feeding them, etc., etc., all while the kids are demanding things from you: "Daddy, I want a snack! Daddy, she pulled my hair! Daddy! Daddy! Daddy!". I kid you not, I've started to hear "Daddy" being called in my head. Kinda like how you get an annoying song stuck in your head, ya know? 

I thought I was going to be able to make my own schedule. Wrong! The kids make your schedule. You become their servant and personal chauffeur (school, dance, etc.). 

Now that I think about it, it wasn't too bad when It was just the one. But throw another kid into the equation and all hell breaks loose! 

I've had a lot of difficult jobs, but this one really tests my mental and emotional stamina like no other. I'm always drained now. Always.

As much as I love my kids, I can't wait to get back to my normal job, lol!

Perhaps it is stressful now and 25 years from now you will look back on it as the best years of your life.

I don't know why, but I had that all nailed down. I loved it. I never felt stressed about it. House was neat as a pin, had dinner made, had laundry done, appointments kept. Although I will admit to a feeling of relief when nap time came around. I was a regimented person, too. Nap time was not debatable. Many things were not and they knew not to torque me around about it. So perhaps their realization that the difference between me and their mother was vast. Mom tried to reason and bargain. Dad said "Get it done" and he would tweak at any push back.

"Watch out for the big one there. He tweaks!" LOL! I guess I established boundaries and they flowed with it. And daughters will use any means necessary to get their way.

But when I wasn't tweaking (Which was rarely) I was their father and a friend. I will cherish those memories forever. It all just felt very natural and right.

[Randall Ries]

3 minutes ago, the blob said:

when he was older he wished he had been a little better at making money though, or at least investing. having to go back to work at 69 when my mother got sick and the only job he could get was a ticket taker/popcorn sweeper at a movie theatre making minimum wage.

I understand. I'm going to be 60. No way I can do what I did. That's why our business is so important to us. And it's a "lowly" profession by many peoples standards. Dog walking. Pet sitting. Animal rescue. But I think it's something we can do well in to our sixties and seventies. After that, I plan to hold up banks. You HAVE to have a Plan B.

Was your Dad miserable as a ticket taker/popcorn sweeper?

[thehumantorch]

1 hour ago, Darkowl said:

The peer pressure is definitely real.

My girlfriend (at the time) invited me to go to some investing meeting that some of her friends were putting on, and after the presentation was over, they asked me if I wanted in. I told them that I couldn't afford to invest at the time, and their response was, "You can't afford not to invest in this!". 

Peer pressure at its finest! 

When they're trying to pressure you into investing with them run the other way as fast as possible.  It's just the Amway of the investing world.

[Randall Ries]

1 minute ago, thehumantorch said:

When they're trying to pressure you into investing with them run the other way as fast as possible.  It's just the Amway of the investing world.

Perfect. I always saw the Stock Market as a Ponzi scheme. Like when Hal Wallis would use money from the grosses of Elvis Presley films to make GOOD movies.

[Poekaymon]

34 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

That's a concern. He seems to have his act together. I don't think he would accept an offer for x2 his asking price. There are plenty of online dealers who are still selling at reasonable prices. My bigger concern is if these highrollers figure out the high grade raws that are still out there.

I think he probably would.  I also think most dealers, Reese or otherwise, watch eBay and the other auction houses and price accordingly, so as not to be too far below the market.  I'd love to be wrong, though, so if you know of anyone who currently has stuff like H181, GSX1, ASM298-300, FF48, Star Wars #1, Gi Joe #1, X-Men 94/101/129, etc at substantially below eBay prices, I'd love to know.

Edit: I just looked at Reese's site to confirm my suspicions.  I collect copper/bronze, but at least for those, he is basically in line, if not higher, than eBay.  Nothing against him at all--he's probably worth the premium, and it's important to buy from people you trust.  The point is, unless you have some good examples, I think it's safe to say most online dealers are basically in line with the auction houses.  Makes sense because otherwise people would just instantly flip their stuff--the market is pretty efficient like that.  Here are the first 5 books I just looked at, all books I have myself traded recently, comparing the current Reese price to the very latest sale on eBay (either best offer or bids):

GI Joe 21 9.4 - Reese $550.  eBay $425.

X-men 101 9.4 - Reese $1750. eBay $1400.

Omega Men #3 9.6 - Reese $150.  eBay $120.

Silver Surfer #3 8.0 - Reese $2500.  eBay $1750.

What if #105 9.8 - Reese $770.  eBay $700.

Edited March 25, 2021 by Poekaymon

[NewWorldOrder]

On 3/24/2021 at 7:06 AM, Wally's Comics said:

I can't complain honestly, I got laid off before Covid and it has been a bare, but with this comic key frenzy I'm back in the black!

Is this a Bubble? or was the market just too low to compensate for a Millennial Age that grew up on marvel movies and are investing?

It's so funny a few months ago, I was contemplating lowering prices, now I have to beat the bush and go buy collections to replenish...

Correct (see bold)! 

(Below is to the general reader not Wally's Comics)

Personally I think if people are going to be waiting for X-Men 1 CGC 4.0 to go back under 10k then you will be dead without ever owning one.

90's/early 2000's kids such as myself love X-Men and Deadpool, and now that we are of income age we are also adding to the run up.  So mix that with covid, hedge funds managers, rich bored investors, and sport cards collectors all coming into comics then you have the perfect storm to have this market increase.  There is a big difference between buying garbage like Superman #500 and all the rest of the 90's trash, and buying sound established key comic books.  You think a GSX #1 CGC 9.8 selling for $68k on C-Link last night spells doom and gloom for the hobby?  I think that is pretty dumb. 

There is basically 200 CGC 9.8 GSX 1's on the CGC census.  That is literally nothing with worldwide demand now.  Plus its not like you can buy all 200 today if you wanted to.  Maybe a couple at any given time, and there are way more people who want this book than supply is allocating.    

Could there be a leveling off?  Sure

Outright crash?  I don't wouldn't be in a short position if I were you.

....but nothing is guaranteed just like the stock market.  However, I would be shocked if this just turns out to be a short-term market fad.  

Edited March 25, 2021 by NewWorldOrder

[D84]

37 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

I understand. I'm going to be 60. No way I can do what I did. That's why our business is so important to us. And it's a "lowly" profession by many peoples standards. Dog walking. Pet sitting. Animal rescue. But I think it's something we can do well in to our sixties and seventies. After that, I plan to hold up banks. You HAVE to have a Plan B.

Was your Dad miserable as a ticket taker/popcorn sweeper?

That is not a lowly profession. You provide a great service that a lot of people can't do without.

[thehumantorch]

14 minutes ago, Randall Ries said:

Perfect. I always saw the Stock Market as a Ponzi scheme. Like when Hal Wallis would use money from the grosses of Elvis Presley films to make GOOD movies.

I've invested in the stock market for 30 years.  It isn't a Ponzi scheme although sometimes it doesn't make sense.  It's like buying a small business, how much money does it make, what will it cost me to buy a piece, how competent is management, what future possible risks and what future possible positives do I see for the business.  If you can buy a piece of a business spitting out profits and growing profits you're ultimately gonna make money.

The crazy thing is, any fool can make money buying comics right now.  Buy any key comic at market price or heck, even overpay for it, wait for it to appreciate as it always does and then flip it or wait even longer for value to climb higher.  It's so easy and so obvious, and people with zero connection to the hobby or understanding of the hobby can jump in and ride the train up.  And that should scare us because when it's so obvious and easy there's something wrong.  

[Poekaymon]

4 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

.  So mix that with covid, hedge funds managers, rich bored investors, and sport cards collectors all coming into comics then you have the perfect storm to have this market increase. 

Correct.  There's a popular sentiment on these boards that the economy is bad so this collectibles boom somehow makes no sense. I have argued this in other threads to no avail.  What people don't seem to understand is a lot of folks made out like absolute bandits last year.  Like, it is embarrassing how much they made.  Add to that the other things you mentioned, and it's not surprising at all that things have exploded--and it's not limited to comics.

Of course, if you are on fixed income, and only invest in your savings account, so you're getting like .03% interest right now, or your friends all got laid off or furloughed, it's going to be really hard to understand why nearly every security and collectible in the world is at absolute peak prices.  The only conclusion then is that it's a bubble and everything is going to go back to 2019 prices.

Also you're being way too kind on the X-men #1 4.0.  The people here aren't waiting for it to go back under 10k, they are waiting for it to go back to like $5k (March 2020 prices).  Ain't happenin', cap'n.

[Darkowl]

27 minutes ago, NewWorldOrder said:

Correct (see bold)! 

(Below is to the general reader not Wally's Comics)

Personally I think if people are going to be waiting for X-Men 1 CGC 4.0 to go back under 10k then you will be dead without ever owning one.

90's/early 2000's kids such as myself love X-Men and Deadpool, and now that we are of income age we are also adding to the run up.  So mix that with covid, hedge funds managers, rich bored investors, and sport cards collectors all coming into comics then you have the perfect storm to have this market increase.  There is a big difference between buying garbage like Superman #500 and all the rest of the 90's trash, and buying sound established key comic books.  You think a GSX #1 CGC 9.8 selling for $68k on C-Link last night spells doom and gloom for the hobby?  I think that is pretty dumb. 

There is basically 200 CGC 9.8 GSX 1's on the CGC census.  That is literally nothing with worldwide demand now.  Plus its not like you can buy all 200 today if you wanted to.  Maybe a couple at any given time, and there are way more people who want this book than supply is allocating.    

It wasn't too long ago that I thought pretty much the same thing. I thought, no, I BELIEVED books like H181 could never take a significant hit. I flipped that book (among many others) for years, even when people told me not to. 

Then I saw what happened to the market within only a few short months, and my conviction soon became concern. 

So, riddle me this: what exactly happened within the last 4 months to cause such a spike? 

Covid has been going on for a year.

Worldwide demand for superhero comics has been going on for a lot longer.

The younger generation has also been collecting for at least the last 5 years.

Rich, bored investors have always existed.

So why now? Why within such a short amount of time? What's the biggest contributing factor to such unprecedented inflation at this grand of scale? And, do you really think this kind of hyper growth is healthy/sustainable?

Genuine question, btw.

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Darkowl

[NewWorldOrder]

Just now, Darkowl said:

It wasn't too long ago that I thought pretty much the same thing. I thought, no, I BELIEVED books like H181 could never take a significant hit. I flipped that book (among many others) for years, even when people told me not to. 

Then I saw what happened to the market within only a few short months, and my conviction soon became concern. 

So, riddle me this: what exactly happened within the last 4 months to cause such a spike? 

Covid has been going on for a year.

Worldwide demand for superhero comics has been going on for a lot longer.

The younger generation has also been collecting for at least the last 5 years.

Rich, bored investors have always existed.

So why now? Why within such a short amount of time? What's the biggest contributing to factor to such unprecedented inflation at this grand of scale? And, do you really think this kind of hyper growth is healthy?

Genuine question, btw.

 

 

 

It's been more than 4 moths.  Started last year in May/June.

I think comic book prices finally reached the big boy table.   For the past 20 years we all should have been buying more and complaining less. 

I dont understand your Hulk 181 part.  What are you trying to say?

[Darkowl]

Just now, NewWorldOrder said:

It's been more than 4 moths.  Started last year in May/June.

I think comic book prices finally reached the big boy table.   For the past 20 years we all should have been buying more and complaining less. 

I dont understand your Hulk 181 part.  What are you trying to say?

It may have started last year, but It appears certain books have doubled (possibly even tripled), within the last few months. 

I sold a copy of H181 7.5 for about $3,500 back in November, which was about GPA,  and now it sells for nearly 8K. That's quite the leap in such a short amount of time. Certainly not normal. 

And what I was trying to say about H181, is that I used to believe that some books were basically bullet proof, and I'm just not so sure anymore due to this recent incline.

[NewWorldOrder]

15 minutes ago, thehumantorch said:

I've invested in the stock market for 30 years.  It isn't a Ponzi scheme although sometimes it doesn't make sense.  It's like buying a small business, how much money does it make, what will it cost me to buy a piece, how competent is management, what future possible risks and what future possible positives do I see for the business.  If you can buy a piece of a business spitting out profits and growing profits you're ultimately gonna make money.

The crazy thing is, any fool can make money buying comics right now.  Buy any key comic at market price or heck, even overpay for it, wait for it to appreciate as it always does and then flip it or wait even longer for value to climb higher.  It's so easy and so obvious, and people with zero connection to the hobby or understanding of the hobby can jump in and ride the train up.  And that should scare us because when it's so obvious and easy there's something wrong.  

I would argue the stock market is the same thing.  Requires not a lot of skill if you are long in the market and 10-12% return usually over the long run investing in blue chip stocks.  We both know the blue chip comics.

Listen the problem I am having is people think this is shocking.  Yes, I am in the camp all of these books were undervalued, especially books like FF 1, 5, and X-Men 1.  If a Mike Trout rookie card is worth 4.6 million to someone I think its fair to believe some of the most important pop-culture characters in American history needed to get their much deserved due. 

[NewWorldOrder]

Just now, Darkowl said:

It may have started last year, but It appears certain books have doubled (possibly even tripled), within the last few months. 

I sold a copy of H181 7.5 for about $3,500 back in November, which was about GPA,  and now it sells for nearly 8K. That's quite the leap in such a short amount of time. Certainly not normal. 

And what I was trying to say about H181, is that I used to believe that some books were basically bullet proof, and I'm just not so sure anymore due to this recent incline.

I was buying a raw Hulk 181 every 6 months since 2015.  Right now I have 10 copies left. Was I smart?  No because I should have been buying one every week.  I agree nothing can go up forever but again if anyone thinks Hulk 181 will trending down in my lifetime I wish anyone the best on waiting for that.   My main point is the CGC census on Hulk 181 is very small.  That total graded amount is nothing compared to demand.

[Darkowl]

Just now, NewWorldOrder said:

I was buying a raw Hulk 181 every 6 months since 2015.  Right now I have 10 copies left. Was I smart?  No because I should have been buying one every week.  I agree nothing can go up forever but again if anyone thinks Hulk 181 will trending down in my lifetime I wish anyone the best on waiting for that.   My main point is the CGC census on Hulk 181 is very small.  That total graded amount is nothing compared to demand.

This is what I'm talking about...

[Poekaymon]

4 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

It may have started last year, but It appears certain books have doubled (possibly even tripled), within the last few months. 

I sold a copy of H181 7.5 for about $3,500 back in November, which was about GPA,  and now it sells for nearly 8K. That's quite the leap in such a short amount of time. Certainly not normal. 

And what I was trying to say about H181, is that I used to believe that some books were basically bullet proof, and I'm just not so sure anymore due to this recent incline.

Good god, you are back to the H181.  Not sure why you keep picking that book when there are so many examples of lesser books that have gone up more.  Off the top of my head, Star Wars #1 has quadrupled in that same time frame.  Tons of other stuff, like Ultimate Fallout #4 and New Mutants 98 more than doubled or tripled.  The latter of which has 4000 9.8s.  And you're here talking about H181 being a cause for concern?  

[NewWorldOrder]

11 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

This is what I'm talking about...

Again not seeing your point.

Shares of Amazon used to be $20

[Darkowl]

2 minutes ago, Poekaymon said:

Good god, you are back to the H181.  Not sure why you keep picking that book when there are so many examples of lesser books that have gone up more.  Off the top of my head, Star Wars #1 has quadrupled in that same time frame.  Tons of other stuff, like Ultimate Fallout #4 and New Mutants 98 more than doubled or tripled.  The latter of which has 4000 9.8s.  And you're here talking about H181 being a cause for concern?  

Weren't you going to "yield the floor"?