They're Still Out There! 22 22

[tth2]

8 hours ago, Aman619 said:

Also a very different world in comics. So much more upside buying Church runs then compared to ponying up for Promise copies in 2021.  Unless you believe values will keep rising at same rates of return? 

There was no assurance at the time that Church books would turn out to have a lot further upside.  As you well know, comics always feel fully priced at the time you buy them (otherwise they'd be priced even higher).  It's usually only in retrospect that they ever feel cheap. 

 

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, tth2 said:

There was no assurance at the time that Church books would turn out to have a lot further upside.  As you well know, comics always feel fully priced at the time you buy them (otherwise they'd be priced even higher).  It's usually only in retrospect that they ever feel cheap. 

 

Well, thinking back to my first local comic book convention I ever attended at a small local hotel way back in the day, not only fully priced, but also felt totally ripped off at the time.     

The good thing about being a long term comic book collector, is that spending time in the comic book hobby place tends to heal all things after awhile, including even some of your initial perceived purchasing mistakes.  

Heck, looking backwards now, you kind of wish you had made a lot more of those so-called stinkeroo purchasing mistakes because they have a way of coming up smelling like roses after a period of time.  Except for that 80's B&W garbage and those early 90's Hot to Trot books as listed in the Wizard Magazine.  

[jimbo_7071]

7 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Yes, I guess it really depends on the collector as quite a few of the boardies here have clearly stated that they would like to retain that #1 top position.  

Although I would certainly also prefer to retain that top position if it came to a book of mine's, I wouldn't mind too much if the Promise Collection copy came in at the equivalent grade or preferably one tiny notch lower.  After all, I wouldn't really want to be seen as the only fool to pay such a ridiculous record setting price and it would certainly be nice to say that there's an even bigger fool out that that's willing to pay even much more money for a similar copy of the book that you have in your personal collection. 

At least, it'll not only reinforce the original price you had paid to obtain your copy, but also to help push the market upwards on this book with an actual definitive sale after all of these long years (or possibly even decades) while you've been holding it.   

This thing about competing with other collectors was created by CGC with their "census." I prefer not to let my collecting revolve around a company's marketing gimmick. Until I joined these boards, I had never shown my comics to anyone outside my family, and I had never looked at another collector's collection. In fact, I had never even had a conversation with another collector; I guess that's why I can't get into chasing "highest-graded" copies. I have actually never upgraded a GA book. If I like a copy enough to buy it, then I don't need to find a better one—usually. I do have some books that fall short in terms of eye appeal; those I would upgrade, but it's a low priority.

Edited May 31, 2021 by jimbo_7071

[Mmehdy]

8 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Well, thinking back to my first local comic book convention I ever attended at a small local hotel way back in the day, not only fully priced, but also felt totally ripped off at the time.     

The good thing about being a long term comic book collector, is that spending time in the comic book hobby place tends to heal all things after awhile, including even some of your initial perceived purchasing mistakes.  

Heck, looking backwards now, you kind of wish you had made a lot more of those so-called stinkeroo purchasing mistakes because they have a way of coming up smelling like roses after a period of time.  Except for that 80's B&W garbage and those early 90's Hot to Trot books as listed in the Wizard Magazine.  

That is something that only a 1970's collector would know, in the  early  comic conventions the GA pricing and even the SA were priced "forward:..which meant higher than comic shops were. I can remember that after the SF collection came on board, the  "comics and comics " pricing changed on all GA after that and comic book stores pricing went forward or significantly above guide, say 40%, even 50%. At the time, you knew you were "overpaying" and had that feeling you were being taken advantage of unless you fully believed in the comic book GA/SA market and its future growth. Long term holds or being a collector due have a way of working things out over time, especially if you bought quality books, such as high grade GA/SA or significant issues. Looking back you say to yourself " I should of bought it all"...well live and learn.

[Mmehdy]

19 hours ago, Aman619 said:

Let’s just say that I refrain from telling others, go ahead, jump in, waters fine!  It’s always been fine and always will BE fine.  Just as I don’t advocate or predict a crash in comics or other collectibles. Everyone has to assess their actions, do their homework, and make their best decisions.  however, after the year we have seen in all collectibles due to too much money and too much idle time. It does not feel like the right time to go all out competing wildly for these 5000 books. Especially because there are few real mega keys in the Promise collection that will survive any downturn.  You always promote a giddy carefree excitement for the future of the hobby, that’s great!  It reads like cheerleading to me, but sure why not, we love comics collecting and have for decades.  But I’ve always been more cautious.  Even when setting records it was doable because I felt there was enough run up left to come for what I was buying and that they were still cheap given their future prospects..  it just feels too frothy right now. 

Aman619, let me respond to a couple of points here from your post and thank you for the interesting post.

1-"there are few mega keys in promise collection that will survive any downturn". That statement  would apply  at the time of purchase to the "church" collection which  was available  at 300% of current market Overstreet pricing. A lot mega keys where purchased by whale collectors and those never hit the comic conventions as there were probably 15,000 books. The Church and SF books "mega Keys" as in the SF collection Mr. Rowe got the Tech 27 and Whiz #1 (there was not Action 1) right off the top. "mega keys" is an overrated term in my opinion. To me Cap #74 is a mega key...a great GA Comic Book, Cover and history making horror and Ga crossover transition time in our comic book time line. There can by my definition 100's of mega keys depending upon who you are as a collector, what need to complete your collection, or buying one great pedigree GA book from the OO. No, although the promise collection has Cap#1..who cares...Mega Key is "to each is own" in our GA/SA comic book world. Downturns have occurred thought out the last 50 years. Early in the 1970's EC's were very hot, then the Russ Cochran reprints hit, the EC comic book market was flooded and prices were stuck, after that also the "Gaines " file copies hit...and wow it took about 20 years to absorb them in the expanding GA comic book market such that prices could begin to appreciate again. Everything went up and they crept up from collectors saying , wow these at a great price..and look today as the EC market is strong and recovered both price and demand wise. Ok so there will be a downturn at some time, I agree with you, but the one thing that has kept value, that has survived whether it a mega key or  not was the demand and price stability of the SF and Church collections overall and the fact that they are pedigreed and in outstanding condition.

2-" it does not feel the right time to go all out competing wildly for these 5000 books". It never has and never will. I remember  going back to church, SF etc and  If you bought a SF 5years ago or 40 years ago you always second guess or whether you went to high, buyers remorse. To me you buy the "book" and in this case you have 5000 or more top grade condition issues to chose from.Go with your GA collecting heart knowing where you are headed. Competition today is you against the world, whether it is on Ha.co, E-bay or CC etc..it is not wild, it is more intense but that is not going to be limited to the promise books, if you have a top graded SA/GA comic book without the pedigree you are still gonna end up in a fight. You might as well fight for the good pedigree stuff where you are out there.

3- "you always promote a giddy carefree excitement for the future of the hobby" I would change "hobby" to livelong comic book collector and I hope everyone here is the same and gives it 20 or 30 years...LOL Once you are a TCBC, even if you sell everything , you still are one of US in that love of our GA/SA comic book world. It is not "giddy"  for me, but looking back over 50 years, saying "Yea....we did it" we made it and now the whole world accepts comic book collecting as legitimate. Every board member knows that coming into this pandemic I was scared, I mean we all were...the whole world shut down and I for one, said sell. what you don't need and trade up and get quality GA/SA books which should outlast the pandemic. I thought prices would adjust downward, and I was wrong. I admit it and own it. But I cannot allow the fact that just because some stimulus money was given out to small businesses and $600 in unemployment benefits  to people effected by this economic shut down that this was the "cause" of the "frothy" GA/SA comic book market. I cannot agree with you, when the world shut down, people had a chance to stop, read, learn and appreciate things that they never had time for. Our GA/SA comic book market grew in terms of price and demand because simply put Ga/SA comic books are great, and rare, and collectable, and historical and so on and so on so give he Ga/SA comic book its due..... I do not go on these board as a cheerleader and suggest to our board members here to go out and buy EVERY GA/SA comic book. I never have and I never will. Over the last 10 years being on this board, I have explained to members on this board my opinion that Cap#1 was a great great buy back in 2011 and I still think its great buy today in 2021. A number of great books I have talked about and encouraged GA collectors to acquire. But as you know, early on I had a very strong preference for Blue Label books, and a very conservative  approach to the description of is in reality unrestored. To some extent, I still have those feelings. But never once, have I ever advised anyone to buy any GA book in a non responsible manner. If you can make the money payments then you should on equal footing with those who can write a check and believe in it. Once this pandemic  is completely over and measures to aid us and business are slowly turned off, the reasons for GA/SA price growth will still be there. There are unlimited amount of great comic book properties like never before on so many different platforms to spread out and hit the planet in terms of promotions and comic book  awareness . Who would of ever thought that there would be a "Loki" tv show 25 years ago...you would have be laughed and called  me a wacko. Do you see the preview of that show...the creative forces and unlimited potential there...wow just go look the trailer, it is great, amazing and of course great for out GA/SA comic book world. I not being a cheerleader here, I am just reacting to what is happening and saying "wow". I can predict this with pretty much 99% certainly, that parts of our GA/SA comic book world, will up, down, and even out...and my response that is  enjoy it, and make your Ga/SA collection  ride ever better.
 

Edited May 31, 2021 by Mmehdy

[lou_fine]

7 hours ago, jimbo_7071 said:

I can't get into chasing "highest-graded" copies. I have actually never upgraded a GA book. If I like a copy enough to buy it, then I don't need to find a better one

Same here for me as I have never ever thought about upgrading a book because that would seem like wasting money to get something that you already have, when the money could be better spent on getting something you don't already have.  

Of course, coming from collecting new comic books off the shelves of the LCS's and then straight into pre-GA and then GA books, and not knowing what I know now, I passed on so many opportunities to purchased books in half decent condition.  I was schooled by a comic broker friend of mine's at the time to save up my money and go after only HG books because one day the marketplace would realize the true rarity of these HG books and also not to go after mid-run non-key issues because if you chase after everything, you most likely wouldn't have any money left whenever the nicer books did come along.  

As a result, I was definitely a bit of a nit picker when it came to buying my books and they just needed to have that nicely presenting look before I would think about buying them.  Looking back now, not sure if this was the best strategy for some of those harder to find GA books, as even lower grade and mid-grade copies are selling for huge huge multiples to guide.  Can't complain too much though as it definitely does save in terms of the storage space.  

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Long term holds or being a collector due have a way of working things out over time, especially if you bought quality books, such as high grade GA/SA or significant issues. Looking back you say to yourself " I should of bought it all"...well live and learn.

That quote of yours is just so very true!!!  

I wish my story was about a high grade big dollar GA or SA book, but won't bored you on the GA boards here since it's just about one of those cheapo BA books at the time that is now considered to be a BA key.  

[adamstrange]

17 hours ago, tth2 said:

As you well know, comics always feel fully priced at the time you buy them (otherwise they'd be priced even higher).

I've bought a lot of books that I thought were underpriced.

Not so much anymore. 

[greggy]

12 minutes ago, adamstrange said:

I've bought a lot of books that I thought were underpriced.

Not so much anymore. 

How about the Witchcraft 5 that I believe you bought from Marnin, as I believe I saw that copy when I found an old catalog from him.

Based on the price that he was asking back then, it didn't seen underpriced.

 

[adamstrange]

1 hour ago, greggy said:

How about the Witchcraft 5 that I believe you bought from Marnin, as I believe I saw that copy when I found an old catalog from him.

Based on the price that he was asking back then, it didn't seen underpriced.

 

I bought my Witchcraft 5 back in '94 from Red Beard (aka Ron Pussell) and, at the time, I thought it was underpriced.

[greggy]

1 minute ago, adamstrange said:

I bought my Witchcraft 5 back in '94 from Red Beard (aka Ron Pussell) and, at the time, I thought it was underpriced.

Whew, I thought it was the Marnin copy but it didn't seen underpriced.  

[LearnedHand]

On 5/30/2021 at 4:31 PM, Mmehdy said:

Strange when Church copies hit the market at 3x guide, that is exactly what they said at the time back in 1970's. A number of dealers said you will never get your money back. Over time, based upon my 50+ years of living the GA/SA comic book market, my opinion is the same, when I bought those Church copies at 300% of mint guide, if you can buy and hold, you not will  lose one penny, same here on the promise collection, over time the price you pay on these very high grade pedigree books will appreciate greatly. At the time when you paid 300% of guide there were very few options if you needed a quick resale on the church books. No dealer and very few collectors would bail you out. Today with a worldwide comic book market you have a much better chance to recover your purchase price. Looking back, the Promise books are a much safer buy that the Church's were in the  1970's.

 

I don't have a crystal ball, but sincerely doubt this comparison can be made.  

There might not be a ceiling on comic book value appreciation, but I think it's unrealistic to assume the same growth rate applies to GA books today, at today's prices, as in the 1970s. 

Books were a whole lot less expensive then.  3X Guide in 1978 might have meant paying $120 for a $40 Guide Mint book, or $300 for a Guide Mint $100 book.  Those prices were doable on an average salary, even if it meant saving up for several months.  That $100 book today might run $25k.  How many months would someone making an average salary today need to save to buy a $25k book?   And, at 3X Guide Mint, that $100 book meant you'd be deciding on whether to spend $300 on either a choice GA book or maybe a well used car or a nice bicycle.  At 3X Guide NM today, that same book today means you'l  be deciding on whether to spend $75k on either a non-key (or very low tier key) GA book or maybe a nice new Benz, a boat, a house down-payment, or a year's tuition/room & board at a top-tier university.  I also don't think paying 3X FMV today, with abandon, makes a lot of sense as I sincerely doubt average GA books (not necessarily keys) will grow as much in the next 40 years as in the last 40 years.  Even Action 1, the most exceptional performer of all time, which went from ~10K to ~$3M in 40 years, is unlikely to keep that pace and be worth ~$1B in 40 years.

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by LearnedHand

[Robot Man]

1 hour ago, adamstrange said:

I bought my Witchcraft 5 back in '94 from Red Beard (aka Ron Pussell) and, at the time, I thought it was underpriced.

Ron was always a bit ahead of the curve and thusly a bit aggressive in his pricing. He had quality books and he encouraged me to explore books like Avons and LB Cole at the time when they were off most people's radar. The prices I paid him are a joke today. 

[jimjum12]

8 minutes ago, Robot Man said:

Ron was always a bit ahead of the curve and thusly a bit aggressive in his pricing. He had quality books and he encouraged me to explore books like Avons and LB Cole at the time when they were off most people's radar. The prices I paid him are a joke today. 

My friend Lewis told me the same thing about Ron ... he still has Mile High's , Cosmic Aeroplane's, etc, of some of the better 50's esoteric books, and he learned of them from Ron when he became his customer. Earthman on Venus is a sharp thing when it's in grade ... and it's still cool no matter what shape. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[tth2]

3 hours ago, adamstrange said:

20 hours ago, tth2 said:

As you well know, comics always feel fully priced at the time you buy them (otherwise they'd be priced even higher).

I've bought a lot of books that I thought were underpriced.

Were they objectively underpriced, or you simply felt they were underpriced because you would've been willing to pay more?

[jimjum12]

39 minutes ago, LearnedHand said:

 

I don't have a crystal ball, but sincerely doubt this comparison can be made.  

There might not be a ceiling on comic book value appreciation, but I think it's unrealistic to assume the same growth rate applies to GA books today, at today's prices, as in the 1970s. 

Books were a whole lot less expensive then.  3X Guide in 1978 might have meant paying $120 for a $40 Guide Mint book, or $300 for a Guide Mint $100 book.  Those prices were doable on an average salary, even if it meant saving up for several months.  That $100 book today might run $25k.  How many months would someone making an average salary today need to save to buy a $25k book?   And, at 3X Guide Mint, that $100 book meant you'd be deciding on whether to spend $300 on either a choice GA book or maybe a well used car or a nice bicycle.  At 3X Guide NM today, that same book today means you'l  be deciding on whether to spend $75k on either a non-key (or very low tier key) GA book and maybe a nice new Benz, a boat, a house down-payment, or a year's tuition/room & board at a top-tier university.  I also don't think paying 3X FMV today, with abandon, makes a lot of sense as I sincerely doubt average GA books (not necessarily keys) will grow as much in the next 40 years as in the last 40 years.  Even Action 1, the most exceptional performer of all time, which went from ~10K to ~$3M in 40 years, is unlikely to keep that pace and be worth ~$1B in 40 years.

 

This is so true. In the mid 70's I could have saved enough up for the top book in the hobby in about 2 years, and I was a teenager. Today it would take me 2 centuries. I would still think a notable book with sharp eye appeal would return it's investment. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Robot Man]

8 minutes ago, jimjum12 said:

My friend Lewis told me the same thing about Ron ... he still has Mile High's , Cosmic Aeroplane's, etc, of some of the better 50's esoteric books, and he learned of them from Ron when he became his customer. Earthman on Venus is a sharp thing when it's in grade ... and it's still cool no matter what shape. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

I still have my Mask #1 and #2 I got from Ron. Probably good-good+. I paid probably just over vg guide at the time and I didn’t care a bit. He was always a very tight grader as well. 

[adamstrange]

4 minutes ago, tth2 said:

Were they objectively underpriced, or you simply felt they were underpriced because you would've been willing to pay more?

Both.   In the good old days, internet sales were non-existent or minimal, and many sellers relied heavily on the price guide even for better material that would sell for more in a better venue.

[tth2]

3 hours ago, greggy said:

How about the Witchcraft 5 that I believe you bought from Marnin, as I believe I saw that copy when I found an old catalog from him.

Based on the price that he was asking back then, it didn't seen underpriced.

 

Marnin is a good example.  When I was in my heyday of buying raw high grade books, the prices being quoted by the likes of Marnin, Roter, Greenhalgh, Metropolis, Storm, Hughes, etc. all felt high to extremely high.  

Has anyone ever come away from a purchase from Marnin thinking "I totally got a deal"? 

[Robot Man]

1 minute ago, adamstrange said:

Both.   In the good old days, internet sales were non-existent or minimal, and many sellers relied heavily on the price guide even for better material that would sell for more in a better venue.

True. It wasn’t easy to get unusual esoteric books back then. You bought them when they presented themselves and were happy to get them at all.