CGC Market weakening?

[LVCE-migration]

To all,

 

I've noticed in the last few months that many CGC books are being won for less than I would have expected, especially books like ASM 300, Daredevil 131/168, Batman 404-407, etc... in the 9.8 condition. Is this due to the continued overall weakening economy, the rising gas prices, the recent Hurricaine disasters, the Ewert scandal, other things, or a combination of the above? Would like to hear some theories. It seems to reflect the weakening real estate market (already things are slowing done in the Los Angeles/Orange County area; the Michigan area is starting to die due to the continued layoffs by KMart, the Big 3 Auto makers, and now the Northwest Bankruptcy plans).

[skybolt]

The Ewert business hasn't caught on yet, so it's not that. I think the main two reasons are that a lot of people are realizing that HG late BA and MA are a dime a dozen, and the difference between a nice looking 9.4 and 9.8 are miniscule at best (especially for modern books).

[nik]

On more common and some keys this is a good time to buy if you are a collector.

 

I have noticed that more and more BA raw untamperred HG books are surfacing lately, and the more you spend the better the deal. CGC HG common books have been soft in the past few months, even before the JE fiasco.

[delekkerste]

You know, Jason Ewert deserves every stone that is being slung at him, but I'm starting to get the sense that people now want to start scapegoating him for the recent weakness in CGC prices (which I think will become "continued weakness" in time). The fact of the matter is that people simply paid way too much for books that were way too common and they should own up to their own errors in judgment.

 

I think it was George Pantela who wrote a post a couple of years ago that cited the Reserve Bank of Australia's research report on bubble market dynamics, which I took and compared to the HG comic market. Among the classic, tell-tale signs of a bubble included a cottage industry springing up to serve the ever-rising market (e.g., GPAnalysis, which, don't get me wrong, is a fine service that I subscribe to myself and that I think will survive the downturn in slab prices) and the appearance of rampant fraud from unscrupulous sellers looking to drain the wallets of naive and greedy buyers. The rise of Jason Ewert and his ilk was, IMO, very predictable.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think the Ewert scandal will have an impact and may in fact be a key catalyst for a downturn, but even without rampant NDP and undetected resto, did people really think paying 5-20x Guide for books, common or not, was a sound investment strategy? You mentioned the hurricanes, high gas prices and whatnot, but, stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, aren't these just the latest in a long series of income-crimping factors that will surely have a negative effect on the price of many things going forward, including comics? I've said this in the Water Cooler, but anybody still sinking big money into slabs expecting to recoup their investment or more down the line needs to read James H. Kunstler's new book "The Long Emergency" and realize why there's a good chance that it's not likely to happen.

[sfilosa]

The books you are talking about are:

 

1) Common - even in High Grade

2) Available for purchase almost all the time

 

Therefore, if there is some weakness (i.e. less demand), then it is quite apparent.

Since there is ample supply and slightly less demand, final prices will be softer. On the other hand if there was less demand say for an AF #15 in CGC 9.4, it might not be apparent as there might not be any supply available to confirm the weakness.

 

Many BA/Modern books are much more like a commondity then a rare collectible.

 

Even late SA books like Iron-Man #1, Nick Fury #1, Cap. Amer. #100, etc. fall into that catagory.

[Flaming_Telepath]

Many BA/Modern books are much more like a commondity then a rare collectible.

 

Even late SA books like Iron-Man #1, Nick Fury #1, Cap. Amer. #100, etc. fall into that catagory.

 

I agree totally...which makes some of the prices regularly realised on these books over the last two-three years ridiculous. They need correcting and all the signs are there that it's starting to happen. The Ewert scandal, and CGC's own failings in the matter, will simply give the downturn a boost of speed.

 

The problem is that once the 'commons' start devaluing, people start to dump. And they won't just dump the dime-a-dozen dross. A number of them will 'get out of the game', concerned that everything else is going to start sliding.

 

And then the not-so-commons start appearing in waves and the market further slumps.

 

And simply quoting the AF #15 as a book that won't devalue is meaningless. This market is not propped up by AF #15s. It's supported by the constant buying and selling of Nick Fury #1s in 9.4s and Thor #186s in 9.6 and X-Men #101s in 9.4.

[joe_collector]

And simply quoting the AF #15 as a book that won't devalue is meaningless. This market is not propped up by AF #15s. It's supported by the constant buying and selling of Nick Fury #1s in 9.4s and Thor #186s in 9.6 and X-Men #101s in 9.4.

 

 

I am so sick of hearing about those "HG AF 15's" and how "they will hold their value"... who cares? We already covered that there are something like 12 Universal 9.0+ CGC copies out there - how much of a market can that be?

[FFB]

Many BA/Modern books are much more like a commondity then a rare collectible.

 

Even late SA books like Iron-Man #1, Nick Fury #1, Cap. Amer. #100, etc. fall into that catagory.

 

I agree totally...which makes some of the prices regularly realised on these books over the last two-three years ridiculous. They need correcting and all the signs are there that it's starting to happen. The Ewert scandal, and CGC's own failings in the matter, will simply give the downturn a boost of speed.

 

The problem is that once the 'commons' start devaluing, people start to dump. And they won't just dump the dime-a-dozen dross. A number of them will 'get out of the game', concerned that everything else is going to start sliding.

 

And then the not-so-commons start appearing in waves and the market further slumps.

 

And simply quoting the AF #15 as a book that won't devalue is meaningless. This market is not propped up by AF #15s. It's supported by the constant buying and selling of Nick Fury #1s in 9.4s and Thor #186s in 9.6 and X-Men #101s in 9.4.

 

And didn't the White Mountain copy of AF#15 (in CGC 9.4) just sell for a huge loss anyway....

[sfilosa]

And simply quoting the AF #15 as a book that won't devalue is meaningless. This market is not propped up by AF #15s. It's supported by the constant buying and selling of Nick Fury #1s in 9.4s and Thor #186s in 9.6 and X-Men #101s in 9.4.

 

Let me clarify.

 

I never said AF #15 CGC 9.4 would holds it's value.

 

I said it's possible that you COULDN'T see WEAKNESS on a book like that because there might not be an issue available for sale. No supply, no perceived weakness.

 

Similar to Overstreet reporting guide grades on books that very rarely sell.

 

Common books on the other hand have ample supply so it's easy to see dumping.

 

 

All books have the ability to go lower in value!!!!!

[linmoth]

Doesn't History repeat itself?

 

Whether it's tulips, dot coms, collectibles, or real estate there are peaks and valleys.

 

The prices in our hobby rose very quickly starting with the birth of CGC and the Manning Auctions almost to the point of hysteria.

 

How much is to much? I think we are going to find out. I believe this market has been ready for a correction for awhile now and the events taking place ie: Pressing, Resubs, Resto Passing CGC etc., along with National Events, are going to speed up the process, but it was inevitable.

 

Best, Tom

[Jeffro.]

What's this "Ewert" business? I've apparently missed something. Can someone give it to me in a nutshell?

[skybolt]

The speculators will always dump their books first in anticipation of a market crash. However, if this happens I don't think the HG CGC market would completely tank. There are many HG collectors on these boards that love their books and would decide to keep them nonetheless, while others like myself are waiting for prices to come down to respectability to purchase these books.

 

Spider-Man has always been my favorite character and I would love to complete a HG run of his Amazing title. However, with people currently paying 5 to 10 times guide for a HG BA issue, it's really too much to compete with at this time. If speculators start dumping their books at 2 or 3 times guide then I along with many other people would jump at the chance of owning these issues. Once in the possession of pure collectors, who want to keep their books for many years to come, the market would start gradually going up again.......but not at a frantic pace that can't be sustained.

[ComicSupply]

What's this "Ewert" business? I've apparently missed something. Can someone give it to me in a nutshell?

 

He bought some books, cracked them, trimmed/cleaned/pressed/etc them, sent them to CGC where they got higher grades with a BLUE label, and then sold them. People are wondering how many more there are that are like that.

 

[linmoth]

I don't believe that the HG Comic Market is going to "tank" as you put it, but I think that there is resistance now to many of the ask prices on HG books.

 

I agree that investors or speculators will be the first to leave the market, JP is a prime example.

 

But in the same breath, how many HG collectors do you know that don't pay attention to the value of their collection.

 

As a collector I know that my priorities have changed a few times over the years and have sold one collectible to enter into another field of collecting, you have to be aware of the value.

 

It may not be the main focus, but just like any value based on paper gains, it will open many "collectors eyes" when their collection starts dropping in value instead of continuing to rise like a rocket. To some it will lose it's lustre.

 

I always come back to comics. I am waiting!

[skybolt]

Good point.

[the_changing_man]

Looks ok to me.....ASM 300 just sold for record price this year to date....

 

ASM 300

[joe_collector]

it will open many "collectors eyes" when their collection starts dropping in value instead of continuing to rise like a rocket. To some it will lose it's lustre.

 

That's a universal concept that I try to get across to the hardliners, but many refuse to see it. In the mid-80's and mid-90's, the respective crashes caused a mass exodus of collectors/specs/investors/etc. NOT just because of low value, but because the mass market heat, lustre, excitement, fervor, interest, or whatever you want to call it, also dropped off the table.

 

When the fair-weather specs leave, they take the spotlight with them, and then it's time to see who actually likes to collect comic books, rather than seeking attention and blowing money.

[toro]

The Ewert business hasn't caught on yet, so it's not that. I think the main two reasons are that a lot of people are realizing that HG late BA and MA are a dime a dozen, and the difference between a nice looking 9.4 and 9.8 are miniscule at best (especially for modern books).

 

I totally agree with this statement, if you look at the census there are large numbers of those books in high grade. Do a search on Ebay for CGC 9.8 and you will find a ton of modern no nothing books that should if they were going to be slabbed they should have been held for 10 or 20 years for them to have any kind of value. When you see 9.8 selling for $19.95 or less you have to ask was it really worth it to have slabbed the book? Slabbing a New Avengers #1 might be good in the short term. But it will end like musical chairs and you might be the last one to get it, and then they cancel the series and it will be worth as much as a Alpha Flight #1! Nice to have, but again there are tons of them.

[linmoth]

Hi All:

 

The entire concept of collecting is buy what you like at a price that you feel comfortable paying. I wouldn't feel comfortable paying $800 for an ASM 300 in 9.8 because I know that many collectors bought this book in quantities of 10-20 and the comic went straight to archival protection, I was there I saw it.

 

In the same sense I wouldn't pay 10K for the WP Showcase 34 not knowing that the 34,35 and 36 sold for around $750 for the set. Of course that was years ago, but I have a hard time justifying todays values, as I am sure many collectors do.

 

I think Crash is a strong word, and I don't think that will happen, It will Correct.

 

Tom

[jimm94]

Good point, Tom. I have observed that the vast majority of today's top collectors acquired most of their books prior to the CGC boom. It would be extraordinarily difficult to assemble deep runs of the most popular titles in ultra high grade at today's prices unless you are just crazy rich.