CGC Market weakening?

[sfilosa]

Personally, I think a no reserve eBay auction is a much better gauge of market sentiment during a given week than a dealer pricing and holding a book on his website until the "right buyer at the right price" comes along, or a Heritage auction with a reserve. I guess we'll see in the coming months how all this shakes out.

 

 

Have to disagree with that statement. Just because a book sells with a No Reserve Auction on eBay for a certain price, doesn't confirm that as market value.

 

All of us have a limited amount of resources to spend on comics (even if it's several hundred thousand dollars). So if three key books hit the market in one week, I might only be able to buy one of them. And because all three are available, I probably would bid less on all three hoping to get one at a bargain price.

 

It's amazing how the several posters on these boards who have sold a lot of their collection over the past year or two, continue to tout that the market is going down (or about to). That might be true, but I know that I bought books for high prices a year ago and been able to sell a few for 50% more. Alot depends on having the book in very HG, where the grade is the minimum that will be acceptable. In some cases that might be CGC 9.4 (or higher) but in most cases it isn't a CGC 8.5 or even a CGC 9.2.

[drbanner]

Looks like Heritage dominates the high-end market, and if you had Comiclink sales data, I suspect they would be right up there as well.

 

I would doubt that - I can't see them doing anywhere the business Heritage or eBay does - unless someone has data to prove otherwise.

 

I didn't mean that Clink's volume is up there with Heritage or Ebay, but that many of the "top sales" data points would come from Clink...Heritage would surely still be at the top of the heap.

[toro]

To me if a book is advertized correctly, my experience has been that I will always get a better bang for the buck on ebay as opposed to Clink. But I don't sell high grade keys. I mostly just work with the average silver age stuff. Many times it is stuff that is flipped from heritage. Sometimes I can double my money doing that, sometimes I just make a couple of bucks after fees and all that. Just depends on the book.

[the blob]

"The top 1000 traded books are those books that are highly traded (many sales over the past 3 years), and not necessarily the most valuable, hence the second part of the statistics."

 

Alright, well, a slabbed ASM 300 is probably going to be sold on ebay, not heritage

[sfilosa]

To me if a book is advertized correctly, my experience has been that I will always get a better bang for the buck on ebay as opposed to Clink. But I don't sell high grade keys. I mostly just work with the average silver age stuff. Many times it is stuff that is flipped from heritage. Sometimes I can double my money doing that, sometimes I just make a couple of bucks after fees and all that. Just depends on the book.

 

If the book is less than $100, eBay usually will be a better overall outlet because the seller doesn't have to send the book to ComicLink. That alone is around $8 insured shipping, that has to be factored into the final price. In other words to sell a $100 book on ComicLink, more than likely the seller is only going to walk away with $82 which they might be able to get $95 (assuming buyer pays with a check) on eBay. That gives them plenty of room to lower the price $5-10 and still come out ahead.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Have to disagree with that statement. Just because a book sells with a No Reserve Auction on eBay for a certain price, doesn't confirm that as market value.

 

Market prices fluctuate, sometimes wildly, sometimes not. Large rises up and downward are signs of both bull and bear markets respectively. There is an instability in the current market thats very palpable...at least to me.

 

If we smile gleefully when prices jump upwards, and point to this fact as clear evidence of a bull market, we must also take note, and not dismiss, when prices are dropping by large percentages. We should also not dismiss the girth of inventory available right now on dealer sites, through Heritage, etc. To do so is to ignore reality.

 

If I were heavily vested in Bronze, I'd be especially sweating. Three high grade certified Giant Size X-Men # 1s (a 9.8, 9.6, and 9.4) and three Hulk # 181s (a 9.6, and two 9.4s) all are still sitting in the Heritage Post Auction Buys section from this past weekend. I've never seen that before on Heritage, or anything close for that matter....those books almost always sell at auction.

 

I'm still buying Steve, I'm just buying a lot cheaper than I ever have before (high grade for under Guide), and to be honest, I think prices will likely fall further in the next year for the pre-66 Marvels I covet. I'm not totally out of the game, I'm just a lot more aware than ever before.

[nearmint]

just look at the 9.4 HOM 236 sold recently - on ebay, it ended under $200, but he sold it on Clink for $750 within a day of listing.

 

[RaccoonRaccoon]

My 2 cents on the "CGC Market Weakening":

 

While I think high end books may have some volatility (10% - 15%), depending on demand at the time, they will hold their overall value, especially in the higher grades. The lower grade books are subject to price depreciation since the chance of more lower grade books coming into the market is greater. Also, the "investment collector" will not be interested in these comics, which keeps prices more depressed.

 

Also, it seems some people have gone through the trouble of having common modern issues slabbed that come back graded 9.6 and above. In my opinion, this is the greatest segment that will drop in price. Who cares if ASM #515 (just a random example) is slabbed in CGC 9.8? I have seen these types of books go through on Ebay with zero bids. However, I have also seen several being sold at a premium, which is anything over the cover price + the cost of slabbing.

 

Some people might think that maybe 30 years from now that ASM #515 might go up in value since it's graded 9.8. Sure, it will go up in value but not at any real premium, since there will be hundreds if not thousands of the same book slabbed and unslabbed in the same exact condition. Everyone that collects comics in the present time knows that its all about condition. Back in the 60's / 70's and to some extent the 80's not many people worried about condition as compared to today.

 

Anyway, to qualify my statements, I am not a huge collector or dealer. I have just got back into the hobby about 6 months ago. I collected as a kid in the 80's and early 90's. I would love to hear some feedback about my opinions.

[Flaming_Telepath]

Just for the melting pot, my 'good luck' continues....

 

Last night X-Men #27 in 9.2 for $130 - Guide $190

 

Tonight Thor #140 in 9.2 for $61 - Guide $90

 

These are the sort of books that will first see the signs of market 'slow down' (don't want someone wetting their knickers with talk of the Big C). Add these in to the half dozen examples from last week...

[FlyingDonut]

Just for the melting pot, my 'good luck' continues....

 

Last night X-Men #27 in 9.2 for $130 - Guide $190

 

Tonight Thor #140 in 9.2 for $61 - Guide $90

 

These are the sort of books that will first see the signs of market 'slow down' (don't want someone wetting their knickers with talk of the Big C). Add these in to the half dozen examples from last week...

 

Slabbed Thor 140 in 9.2 for $61? That book isn't selling for $61, its selling for $25 - as the price of the slab is $36.

 

Which is roughly 30% of Guide, which is where raw Thors sell for.

[Flaming_Telepath]

Just for the melting pot, my 'good luck' continues....

 

Last night X-Men #27 in 9.2 for $130 - Guide $190

 

Tonight Thor #140 in 9.2 for $61 - Guide $90

 

These are the sort of books that will first see the signs of market 'slow down' (don't want someone wetting their knickers with talk of the Big C). Add these in to the half dozen examples from last week...

 

Slabbed Thor 140 in 9.2 for $61? That book isn't selling for $61, its selling for $25 - as the price of the slab is $36.

 

Which is roughly 30% of Guide, which is where raw Thors sell for.

 

Sorry, I think you missed the point that it was slabbed.

 

And thanks for ignoring the X-Men example, but anyway, if you insist we talk about raw...

 

I've just sold nine unslabbed Thors between #130 and #160 in VF+ and VF/NM, all at 10% under Guide.

 

And if you want to talk slabbed, how's about you ask Arex Crooke what he got for his 9.2 and 9.4 Thors from the same era?

 

NM- Thors go for 30% of Guide? My arse, matey.

[VintageComics]

Just for the melting pot, my 'good luck' continues....

 

Last night X-Men #27 in 9.2 for $130 - Guide $190

 

Tonight Thor #140 in 9.2 for $61 - Guide $90

 

These are the sort of books that will first see the signs of market 'slow down' (don't want someone wetting their knickers with talk of the Big C). Add these in to the half dozen examples from last week...

 

Slabbed Thor 140 in 9.2 for $61? That book isn't selling for $61, its selling for $25 - as the price of the slab is $36.

 

Which is roughly 30% of Guide, which is where raw Thors sell for.

 

Aww c'mon....why you gotta rain on his parade

[skybolt]

The X-Men #27 issue has been selling for around $170-$175 in 9.2 condition according to GPA. $130 seems like a pretty good deal.

[sfilosa]

Just for the melting pot, my 'good luck' continues....

 

Last night X-Men #27 in 9.2 for $130 - Guide $190

 

Tonight Thor #140 in 9.2 for $61 - Guide $90

 

These are the sort of books that will first see the signs of market 'slow down' (don't want someone wetting their knickers with talk of the Big C). Add these in to the half dozen examples from last week...

 

There is no question that CGC 9.2's are a weak spot. I've been saying that for a very long time. There are CGC 9.4 or better collectors and then there are HG collectors and most of them don't feel the need to pay a 30-40% premium of a CGC 9.0 for a CGC 9.2. Plus the issues you got are common (doesn't make them any less desirable to collect).

 

A copy of X-Men #27 CGC 9.2 sold in May for $124.21.

[LordRahl]

Okay...so let's explain THIS one away:

 

FF # 17 in CGC 8.5 sells for a (pretty realistic) high of $575 in June.

Another FF # 17 in CGC 8.5 sells for $488 in the August Heritage auction.

The same heritage FF # 17 resells on ebay tonight for a measley $305.

 

So, how exactly does a high grade pre-66 Marvel go for barely more than half of what a comparable copy sold for four months ago? Or better yet, how does the EXACT SAME book sell for 40% less just two months later?

 

Wait..it must be "the slow time of the year"....or "its Sunday on eBay, and it was overlooked for (insert your reason here)."

 

If you're still not convinced that the market is changing, and quite drastically at that.... well....

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...A%3AIT&rd=1

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...A%3AIT&rd=1

 

[FlyingDonut]

Just for the melting pot, my 'good luck' continues....

 

Last night X-Men #27 in 9.2 for $130 - Guide $190

 

Tonight Thor #140 in 9.2 for $61 - Guide $90

 

These are the sort of books that will first see the signs of market 'slow down' (don't want someone wetting their knickers with talk of the Big C). Add these in to the half dozen examples from last week...

 

Slabbed Thor 140 in 9.2 for $61? That book isn't selling for $61, its selling for $25 - as the price of the slab is $36.

 

Which is roughly 30% of Guide, which is where raw Thors sell for.

 

Sorry, I think you missed the point that it was slabbed.

 

And thanks for ignoring the X-Men example, but anyway, if you insist we talk about raw...

 

I've just sold nine unslabbed Thors between #130 and #160 in VF+ and VF/NM, all at 10% under Guide.

 

And if you want to talk slabbed, how's about you ask Arex Crooke what he got for his 9.2 and 9.4 Thors from the same era?

 

NM- Thors go for 30% of Guide? My arse, matey.

 

You are welcome to buy every NM- Thor i can find for 75% of Guide. My point is that slabbed 9.0 and 9.2 books sell for under Guide all the time, and when you deduct the slabbing fees, those books are a significant discount against Guide.

[Flaming_Telepath]

Just for the melting pot, my 'good luck' continues....

 

Last night X-Men #27 in 9.2 for $130 - Guide $190

 

Tonight Thor #140 in 9.2 for $61 - Guide $90

 

These are the sort of books that will first see the signs of market 'slow down' (don't want someone wetting their knickers with talk of the Big C). Add these in to the half dozen examples from last week...

 

There is no question that CGC 9.2's are a weak spot. I've been saying that for a very long time. There are CGC 9.4 or better collectors and then there are HG collectors and most of them don't feel the need to pay a 30-40% premium of a CGC 9.0 for a CGC 9.2. Plus the issues you got are common (doesn't make them any less desirable to collect).

 

A copy of X-Men #27 CGC 9.2 sold in May for $124.21.

 

I think the point is, Steve, that 12 months ago, there were plenty of folk willing to pay premiums over Guide for 9.2s. I'm now looking at a lot of information (I sell as well as buy) that tells me that the CGC market may indeed begin gravitating to the higher grades (9.4 and better).

 

And yes, the books are common, but 90% of the market is based around the buying and selling of books from '65 to '75 that almost without exception are common.

 

So, is 90% of the market weakening? Could be. Does that mean that the other 10% could break away and remain buoyant? Could be too.

[VintageComics]

Okay...so let's explain THIS one away:

 

FF # 17 in CGC 8.5 sells for a (pretty realistic) high of $575 in June.

Another FF # 17 in CGC 8.5 sells for $488 in the August Heritage auction.

The same heritage FF # 17 resells on ebay tonight for a measley $305.

 

So, how exactly does a high grade pre-66 Marvel go for barely more than half of what a comparable copy sold for four months ago? Or better yet, how does the EXACT SAME book sell for 40% less just two months later?

 

Wait..it must be "the slow time of the year"....or "its Sunday on eBay, and it was overlooked for (insert your reason here)."

 

If you're still not convinced that the market is changing, and quite drastically at that.... well....

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...A%3AIT&rd=1

 

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?Vie...A%3AIT&rd=1

 

 

So what are GP prices for FF #12 8.0 (this book sold for about $2500 with the BP) and #11 8.5 (and about $1500 +) ? I also want to repeat that ebay prices have slowly been dropping over the past year because of fraud, so many people are turning to dealers. I have argued for a while that ebay does not represent what a serious collector is willing to pay because many people simply refuse to buy big books off of ebay.

[Flaming_Telepath]

My point is that slabbed 9.0 and 9.2 books sell for under Guide all the time, and when you deduct the slabbing fees, those books are a significant discount against Guide.

 

Which 100% answers the question...is the CGC market weakening...in the affirmative.

 

You can sell raw NM- Thors at 75% of Guide, which means that in this example, you'll get $67.50. The poor schmuck who slabbed this puppy has got $25 for his copy.

 

So, why slab them in the future? Sell them raw, get a better net return.

[greggy]

My point is that slabbed 9.0 and 9.2 books sell for under Guide all the time, and when you deduct the slabbing fees, those books are a significant discount against Guide.

 

Which 100% answers the question...is the CGC market weakening...in the affirmative.

 

You can sell raw NM- Thors at 75% of Guide, which means that in this example, you'll get $67.50. The poor schmuck who slabbed this puppy has got $25 for his copy.

 

So, why slab them in the future? Sell them raw, get a better net return.

Get your book yet?