Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 9/12/2022 at 1:54 PM, FFB said:

You HAVE to read them!  

[Microchip]

On 9/12/2022 at 11:47 AM, Nick Furious said:

On 9/11/2022 at 8:35 PM, GermanFan said:

I dont see collecting US Comics going global, other than being a niche market. UK of course and some other european countries. Thats a small fraction of the home market in the US and Canada.

I actually think that going global is one of the real possibilities for new comic books.  I don't think it will change values of old books so much as create a bigger market for new books.  The new X-men team of GSX1 was specifically designed to appeal to a global market.  Of course that was in the days before the internet and social media, so I don't think it was all them successful in that regard.  But we are seeing more of an attempt to take a mostly New York based industry and make it more desirable around the world.  I think it will be more successful this time around.  As for older comic books, I'm under the impression that the majority of new collectors (true collectors, not investors) either never get very interested in old stuff or do so very slowly and gradually.  

It will definitely go global.   Everyone wants a piece of the American cultural pie.   There are so many examples of things having audiences of appreciation for things outside the US.  The MCU movies are the big driver here.   Those viewers, now and as they get older, the MCU is a giant part of their childhood now.  It's what Star Wars was for us.

Prices of what books, in what era's, thats the $64 collecting question is you want to see appreciation.   I'm siding with eternal comic book line, collect what you like, and enjoy.

[Nick Furious]

On 9/12/2022 at 3:29 PM, Microchip said:

I'm siding with eternal comic book line, collect what you like, and enjoy.

I'm stickin with Fish Police and Gizmo.  

[drdonaldblake1]

On 9/10/2022 at 6:22 PM, GermanFan said:

We are in a historical situation. The last of the babyboomers, who drove all the prices since the 60s, are going to retire. They will have to spend most of their money for living expenses.

And the geopolitical power shift, away from the west, bye bye old europe, to the east, Eurasia, is in full swing. Living in Germany I am happy to survive the next 5 to 7 years. Europe may become like Argentina. 

The point of error for me is always the timing. I underestimate how long it all takes.

But think of NFTs. Looking back in a couple of years ppl will shake their heads. Buying jpegs for real money. Really?

QFT! NFTs, like crypto are just one giant Ponzi scheme 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/11/2022 at 7:50 PM, Gregd said:

My initial discussion about stocks was to counter the pretty frequent doom and gloom projections about the economy, the dismal future of the world, etc. that live on these boards. I don’t think it’s super healthy- and it actually can sway folks to make terrible decisions about their finances in ways that can have significant impact to them in the future.

I agree with you, in general, about stock investing for retirement, but as FFB and others have said, investing in comics is not the same as stock investing.

If I were a comic investor, I would have sold at least half, if not ALL of my SA and BA keys in the last year.  These are the highest valuations EVER.  It would have been a perfect time to lock in some profits.  To expect these percentage increases to have continued, or to now resume a meteoric rise after a brief decline, in this economic environment, is irrational optimism.

I threw together some numbers for Incredible Hulk #181 in 9.0 based on the GPA.

Total is total sales, Average is price per sale, Growth is total growth from previous column year (77.74% total growth from end of 2003 to 2013), APY is growth per year from previous column year and 2019-21 IF is the expected average value for 2021 based on one year of growth from 2019 prices at the corresponding growth APY, skipping 2020 since it was a down year

So 10 years to basically double, then 4 years to double, then 2 years to double and then another 2 years to double in price.  This kind of growth seems unsustainable to me, even without the current economic headwinds.

On 9/11/2022 at 7:50 PM, Gregd said:

Don’t let fear or greed drive your decisions, do your research, quality wins out, steadily building a portfolio over time helps you buy at low and high points, and accept some things you buy may not always work out

I agree this is good advice, BUT this is the kind of advice few people actually practice.  The reality is that most people let greed and fear drive their decisions.  That is why Ponzi schemes and "pump and dump" scams work.  Are the increases in comic books the result of the kind of advice you are advocating?  If they were, I would think it might be a good time to invest in comics. In contrast, in my opinion, this may be one of the worst times ever to "invest."

[Gregd]

On 9/13/2022 at 7:56 PM, mjoeyoung said:

I agree with you, in general, about stock investing for retirement, but as FFB and others have said, investing in comics is not the same as stock investing.

If I were a comic investor, I would have sold at least half, if not ALL of my SA and BA keys in the last year.  These are the highest valuations EVER.  It would have been a perfect time to lock in some profits.  To expect these percentage increases to have continued, or to now resume a meteoric rise after a brief decline, in this economic environment, is irrational optimism.

I threw together some numbers for Incredible Hulk #181 in 9.0 based on the GPA.

Total is total sales, Average is price per sale, Growth is total growth from previous column year (77.74% total growth from end of 2003 to 2013), APY is growth per year from previous column year and 2019-21 IF is the expected average value for 2021 based on one year of growth from 2019 prices at the corresponding growth APY, skipping 2020 since it was a down year

So 10 years to basically double, then 4 years to double, then 2 years to double and then another 2 years to double in price.  This kind of growth seems unsustainable to me, even without the current economic headwinds.

I agree this is good advice, BUT this is the kind of advice few people actually practice.  The reality is that most people let greed and fear drive their decisions.  That is why Ponzi schemes and "pump and dump" scams work.  Are the increases in comic books the result of the kind of advice you are advocating?  If they were, I would think it might be a good time to invest in comics. In contrast, in my opinion, this may be one of the worst times ever to "invest."

The increase in comics are like any other market that goes through a bubble. There is a burst and valuations come down. Where the bottom is no one is going to know that. And knowing when the market is topping is just as hard. But people did sell and made profits- some people bought into a rising meteoric prices. That’s a market.
 

There were many sellers in 2019 that wished they held on until 2020 or 2021. And like any prudent investor- yes, just like stocks- when prices are getting frothy selling into that (1/4, 1/2 ,etc) is appropriate if you don’t have a longer term plan like myself to either pass the collection on or sell comics to partly occupy my retirement years. 

Here is what I am advocating: As things are correcting bargains start to appear and buying makes more sense. 

My guess: comic prices will eventually bottom, and prices will stabilize. And further in the future, comics will bubble again only to burst. 

My main intent was to give a voice of reason and calm to those that haven’t been through boom bust cycles… don’t sell in panic, and if you are interested in investing, TIP TOEING into this market may make sense.

BTW- there are still books that are breaking records (I am looking at you high grade Vamp mags). 
 

[lou_fine]

On 9/13/2022 at 5:50 PM, Gregd said:

BTW- there are still books that are breaking records (I am looking at you high grade Vamp mags). 

Breaking records still seems to be the name of the game for some of the HTF and classic cover GA books, but definitely not so much for the relatively common but once red hot BA and CA keys from 2021 where you now have multiple copies showing up in HG condition in every single auction.  

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/13/2022 at 10:55 PM, lou_fine said:

On 9/13/2022 at 6:50 PM, Gregd said:

BTW- there are still books that are breaking records (I am looking at you high grade Vamp mags). 

Breaking records still seems to be the name of the game for some of the HTF and classic cover GA books, but definitely not so much for the relatively common but once red hot BA and CA keys from 2021 where you now have multiple copies showing up in HG condition in every single auction.  

I would not be surprised if there are a few issues that end up retaining more of their value, higher grade issues with small populations.  Though, there appear to be lots of people chasing high grades simply because the grades are high  A-Team #1 in 9.8 is also breaking records.  $695 for ROM #1 in 9.8?  One of these books is not like the other (I would rather have the Vamp), but it may eventually get sucked into the whirlpool if the majority of the comic market busts.

The GA market is nuts.  It seems like everything I buy, the next sale will either be for half or twice what I paid.  Take out the hot books, the prices being paid for "common" books don't correlate with the GPA or Overstreet or from one weekend to the next.  I don't understand why people STOP bidding.  The bid is already 5x or 10x guide, how did they come to a conclusion that it was time to stop?  No genre or grade seems immune from huge price increases.(or fluctuations).  

[MAR1979]

On 9/14/2022 at 4:45 AM, mjoeyoung said:

I would not be surprised if there are a few issues that end up retaining more of their value, higher grade issues with small populations.  Though, there appear to be lots of people chasing high grades simply because the grades are high  A-Team #1 in 9.8 is also breaking records.  $695 for ROM #1 in 9.8?  One of these books is not like the other (I would rather have the Vamp), but it may eventually get sucked into the whirlpool if the majority of the comic market busts.

The GA market is nuts.  It seems like everything I buy, the next sale will either be for half or twice what I paid.  Take out the hot books, the prices being paid for "common" books don't correlate with the GPA or Overstreet or from one weekend to the next.  I don't understand why people STOP bidding.  The bid is already 5x or 10x guide, how did they come to a conclusion that it was time to stop?  No genre or grade seems immune from huge price increases.(or fluctuations).  

IMHO what your have described are normal deviation after a bubble burst.  There will always be outliers, and some high prices make little sense but the majority of books will follow the trend in this case down. My guess auctions will continue to go for lower until at least 2Q 2023-perhaps even Q4 2023? .  To ride that way to savings simply do not purchase any hot book or title du-jour.   Although the easiest way is purchase the same titles and issue #'s from my CGC submissions they are sure to sink like a stone as soon as I receive them back

Re: ROM 1 - CGC 9.8w newsstand copies sit unsold on eBay for $399 with Best offers choice available - barely above 2019 levels for the book.

 

BTW: I picked up some A-Team OCA year ago you juts put thought into my head to scan it - thanks

Edited September 14, 2022 by MAR1979

[nearmint]

On 9/10/2022 at 11:00 PM, drdonaldblake1 said:

Heritage September auction CGC X-Men 1 8.5 went for $78k.

The same copy sold for 132K in March of this year.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/14/2022 at 10:13 AM, nearmint said:

The same copy sold for 132K in March of this year.

Ouch

[Sweet Lou 14]

One interesting question is whether sellers of big keys will feel less comfortable with the no reserve auction format.  When the market is red hot, it's the best way to realize maximum value and you can sleep at night knowing you didn't underprice your book and leave money on the table.  In a less exuberant environment, you're taking a big risk.

[MAR1979]

On 9/14/2022 at 1:11 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

One interesting question is whether sellers of big keys will feel less comfortable with the no reserve auction format.  When the market is red hot, it's the best way to realize maximum value and you can sleep at night knowing you didn't underprice your book and leave money on the table.  In a less exuberant environment, you're taking a big risk.

With exception of odd-ball's and  1/1's, I never buy fixed price books.

Edited September 14, 2022 by MAR1979

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/14/2022 at 9:13 AM, nearmint said:

The same copy sold for 132K in March of this year.

That is an important point.  I wonder what percentage of sales are resales of books purchased during this boom time vs. hoarders (don't judge me) who will lock up the books for a much longer time period? 

I can't even imagine weathering a $54K loss on a collectible.  I get upset when I think I've accidently overspent by $50! 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 9/14/2022 at 1:25 PM, mjoeyoung said:

That is an important point.  I wonder what percentage of sales are resales of books purchased during this boom time vs. hoarders (don't judge me) who will lock up the books for a much longer time period? 

I can't even imagine weathering a $54K loss on a collectible.  I get upset when I think I've accidently overspent by $50! 

It definitely takes the shine off the acquisition 

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/14/2022 at 11:24 AM, MAR1979 said:

With exception of odd-ball's and  1/1's, I never buy fixed price books.

Yep.  I would expect to see a lot of failed auctions if that starts becoming more normal.

[nearmint]

On 9/14/2022 at 10:25 AM, mjoeyoung said:

That is an important point.  I wonder what percentage of sales are resales of books purchased during this boom time vs. hoarders (don't judge me) who will lock up the books for a much longer time period? 

I can't even imagine weathering a $54K loss on a collectible.  I get upset when I think I've accidently overspent by $50! 

More than a $54K loss after Heritage takes their cut of the $78K.

[mjoeyoung]

On 9/14/2022 at 12:44 PM, nearmint said:

More than a $54K loss after Heritage takes their cut of the $78K.

STOP! You're making it worse 

[WolverineX]

On 9/14/2022 at 2:44 PM, nearmint said:

More than a $54K loss after Heritage takes their cut of the $78K.

Lets be more optimistic, maybe they were just laundering money.  

[Ken Aldred]

On 9/14/2022 at 6:25 PM, mjoeyoung said:

  I get upset when I think I've accidently overspent by $50! 

With the currently pitiful value of the pound sterling, that’s a significant hit.

There hasn’t ever been a worse time to be a British collector of American comics; stratospheric prices, abysmal exchange rate.  Feel relieved I’m not involved with the secondary market anymore.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Ken Aldred