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Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit???
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Started by InfantTerrible,

7,152 posts in this topic

mjoeyoung

mjoeyoung

Posted
Posted
On 5/26/2023 at 9:09 PM, Tom789 said:

A sharp corner on a 9.8 looks like a ragged horror on high enough magnification. Is there is a maximum magnification CGC allows their graders?

Good question.  I wonder if CGC has a vison plan?

I think someone forgot to tell these bidders that the Eternals movie bombed.

Eternals_30Cent_9_8.thumb.png.0feb5b20f693c6c6cf741c5b56d28bf8.png

Regular 9.8 90 Day Average is $658, low sale of $520, high of $950 (last sale).  Last 9.8 30 Cent sale was $7500 in 2020.  Not really sure how we get from there to ~$15K with "no reserve met" unless there was a really high undocumented sale.

To me, this looks like "new to the hobby, investor, speculator" bidding.

If you look at this list of most expensive sports cards there are many examples of manufactured or artificial scarcity cards selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars.  Somehow, baseball card manufacturers convinced collectors that a card manufactured recently has a great value simply because they only manufactured a limited number of them.  The same mentality drives the value of variants like Ultimate Fallout #4 (last 9.8 sale $33.6K, regular 9.8 $1800).  High grade price variants are an extension of this theme.  They seem tailor made for some influencer to discuss how they are undervalued and the next "big thing."  

The high value multiples of 9.8s and other "highest graded" books seems to show that some parts of the market have become commoditized.  I don't think anybody is paying $15K for this Eternals book because they love the Celestials.  If prices continue to soften in lesser grades will there be a collapse to a more reasonable multiple?  There is a lot of danger when people are buying collectibles because they "think" the item is "valuable" versus buying them for the reason they became valuable in the first place.

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Pantodude

Pantodude

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On 5/30/2023 at 3:43 PM, mjoeyoung said:

If you look at this list of most expensive sports cards there are many examples of manufactured or artificial scarcity cards selling for hundreds of thousands of dollars.  Somehow, baseball card manufacturers convinced collectors that a card manufactured recently has a great value simply because they only manufactured a limited number of them.  The same mentality drives the value of variants like Ultimate Fallout #4 (last 9.8 sale $33.6K, regular 9.8 $1800).  High grade price variants are an extension of this theme. 

This is just not true.  Price variants (whether experimental price variants like this Eternals book and Star Wars #1, or the country price variants like the pence and australians) are NOTHING like the modern cover variants.  They were fundamental for pegging realistic newsstand pricing or achieving sufficient market penetration in the intended foreign market, and they are a very cool, unique part of SA and BA history.  There are great threads discussing their unique and special role already, so I won't say more on that.  Please do some research before spreading misinformation regarding entire genres like price variants!  It is not good for the hobby.  (tsk)

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MAR1979

MAR1979

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On 5/22/2023 at 1:25 AM, Microchip said:

Steve B has out done himself.   The current Clink auction is packed full of top GA, SA, BA books, and OA.   I'd normally post a few examples, but the question of where to start, and where to stop was just too confounding, Steve really is excelling over with Josh.

Don't discount Doug!

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MAR1979

MAR1979

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Posted (edited)
On 5/15/2023 at 10:36 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Those prices are simply dumb.

Teen Titans #14 in 9.6 sells for $240 in 2019 and then sells for $5040?

$8400 for TT #12 that only has 34 on the census?

$6000 for TT #13, last sale of a 9.6 was $256 in 2020 and their are only 36 on the census?

These books are from 1968, is it really possible that these are the only high grade copies in existence?

This is some high level stupidity.  This is Beanie Babies dumbness.

Will it cross-over to 1968 Wonder Woman so I can go business class to a Hawaiian Vacation?  hm Or am I totally screwed due it being the non-costume era?

1/2 in 9.8
image.thumb.jpeg.be53d255d9b550a89a11be7ca0601bd3.jpeg

Edited by MAR1979
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mjoeyoung

mjoeyoung

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Posted
On 5/30/2023 at 8:12 PM, Pantodude said:

This is just not true.  Price variants (whether experimental price variants like this Eternals book and Star Wars #1, or the country price variants like the pence and australians) are NOTHING like the modern cover variants.  They were fundamental for pegging realistic newsstand pricing or achieving sufficient market penetration in the intended foreign market, and they are a very cool, unique part of SA and BA history.  There are great threads discussing their unique and special role already, so I won't say more on that.  Please do some research before spreading misinformation regarding entire genres like price variants!  It is not good for the hobby.  (tsk)

I guess I was not clear enough in what I was trying to say.  The idea was that a price variant 9.8 can be seen as an extra special 9.8 because it is more rare, a subset of a subset.  Just like double covers, new stand copies, Mark Jewelers inserts, etc. create special versions of what are essentially the same book.  The only difference is that these were created by accident or for certain practical reasons (as you said) that have nothing to do with an intentional manufactured scarcity like variant covers.  The end effect is the same though: they are rarer than a regular copy.  My hypothesis was that somebody who may be coming from baseball card collecting, where 1/1 and 1/10 cards from the last decade can sell for millions of dollars, may see the price variants as THE most desirable copy of the book due to this scarcity.  They see that there are 639 Eternals #1 9.8s and only four 9.8s of the price variants, and with a mindset that rarer is BETTER, spend big bucks on the variant.  It is the difference between a collector who understands why something may be valuable (as you describe), and a speculator that only cares about the perceived value (variant is a variant).  Thanks for the public dressing down (thumbsu I do live in The ABQ, one of the 30 cent test market cities. :bigsmile:  :signofftopic:

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mjoeyoung

mjoeyoung

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On 5/30/2023 at 8:56 PM, MAR1979 said:

Will it cross-over to 1968 Wonder Woman so I can go business class to a Hawaiian Vacation?  hm Or am I totally screwed due it being the non-costume era?

1/2 in 9.8

You are going to need to wait until she has a canceled streaming show.  That is what really drives up the value! :nyah:

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Microchip

Microchip

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On 5/31/2023 at 12:43 PM, MAR1979 said:
On 5/22/2023 at 3:25 PM, Microchip said:

Steve B has out done himself.   The current Clink auction is packed full of top GA, SA, BA books, and OA.   I'd normally post a few examples, but the question of where to start, and where to stop was just too confounding, Steve really is excelling over with Josh.

Don't discount Doug!

Apparently a big dealer is submitting a ton of books to clink at the moment.

 

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mjoeyoung

mjoeyoung

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/30/2023 at 10:43 PM, Microchip said:

Apparently a big dealer is submitting a ton of books to clink at the moment.

 

There needs to be an "interesting" reaction emoji  hm, would be perfect for my feelings about this post.

Edited by mjoeyoung
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Pantodude

Pantodude

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Posted (edited)
On 5/30/2023 at 10:12 PM, Pantodude said:

High grade price variants are an extension of this theme. 

On 5/31/2023 at 12:03 AM, mjoeyoung said:

They see that there are 639 Eternals #1 9.8s and only four 9.8s of the price variants, and with a mindset that rarer is BETTER, spend big bucks on the variant.

Living in one of the test market cities is almost as cool as living in Hell's Kitchen!  :)  Just a case in point.  The huge multiples paid for Star Wars #1 35-cent variants exists at ALL grades (from 1.8 to 9.4 per GPA).  So much so that in 2017.2018, a 35c variant in 1.5 or 1.8 in 2017/2018 went for about as much as the 30c version in 9.8!   Lower to mid grade 35c books routinely fetch over 20x premium over same-grade 30c books nowadays, with more extreme multiples at the high end (e.g., in 9.4, $50K vs $500).  So the premium phenomenon in the context of vintage price variants is not limited to the high grades, as it might be with modern cover variants (i dunno).  Also, unlike modern cover variants that are marketed and hyped (not judging here) as rare counterparts prior to sale, which of course tends to incite interest when released and thereafter, the vintage price variants did not receive premiums until many, many years after release.  When they were sold, the rest of the country outside of the like 4 test cities knew nothing about their existence, let alone how rare they were!  It took time to realize their scarcity, but once it happened, the premiums for 35c price variants have stuck (in all grades).  That's another big difference.  (thumbsu         

Edited by Pantodude
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