Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[mjoeyoung]

Promise Collection tonight on Heritage:

Batman #44 8.5 for $15.6K, last sale $26.4K

Batman #55 9.2 for $21.6K, last sale $28.8K

Detective #124 9.8 for $40.8K, last sale $120K

Detective #149 9.6 for $26.4K, last sale $102K

Detective #158 9.6 for $28.8K, last sale $96K

Original Total $373,200

New Total      $133,200

$240,000 loss  

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/7/2023 at 6:46 PM, GrasshopperFF said:

Yeah, I overpaid. But it’s mine now! Joker origin. Red Hood. Been watching it and missing out too long. 

I said it at some point in this thread, if you haven't overpaid for a comic you really wanted, you aren't a comic collector! Congrats! 

[mtlevy1]

On 12/7/2023 at 5:13 PM, Chip Cataldo said:

Why did people buy this stoopit predigree again? Every picture I've seen on the forum has been in a slab with a higher number than it should be.

Why didn't people put their money into something more stable as far as a CGC graded book? Surely if you knew about the Promise Collection to begin with you knew there were better avenues for your money.

Not sure if this unpopular but I agree - when I look at the scans of these books, the majority look overgraded - heck when numbers are 9.6 and 9.8 I am not expecting to see obvious defects...I noted this with Don and Maggie collection to a lesser extent.

[BraveDave]

Scariest thing is that the recent buyers of these Promise books at six figure levels decided to unload now. Seems they must have stretched or financed the purchases or why bother liquidating so soon?

All that speculative “flip” activity was predictably going to end one way… in tears.

[Stefan_W]

On 12/8/2023 at 7:26 AM, BraveDave said:

Scariest thing is that the recent buyers of these Promise books at six figure levels decided to unload now. Seems they must have stretched or financed the purchases or why bother liquidating so soon?

All that speculative “flip” activity was predictably going to end one way… in tears.

They bought at the worst time to buy and are unloading at what is arguably the worst time to sell. Not really a recipe for solid investment results. 

[MatterEaterLad]

On 12/7/2023 at 7:03 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Promise Collection tonight on Heritage:

Batman #44 8.5 for $15.6K, last sale $26.4K

Batman #55 9.2 for $21.6K, last sale $28.8K

Detective #124 9.8 for $40.8K, last sale $120K

Detective #149 9.6 for $26.4K, last sale $102K

Detective #158 9.6 for $28.8K, last sale $96K

Original Total $373,200

New Total      $133,200

$240,000 loss  

I wish more people would talk about the provenance of these books. Yes, there's a compelling story behind it, but that's not the full story. There are dealers who know this is a collection that was assembled from different places, including a storage unit find. 

[jjonahjameson11]

So, what are the estimates on the Curator ASM #1?

$2M

$3M

>$3M

[Chip Cataldo]

On 12/8/2023 at 10:03 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

I wish more people would talk about the provenance of these books. Yes, there's a compelling story behind it, but that's not the full story. There are dealers who know this is a collection that was assembled from different places, including a storage unit find. 

Can you tell the full story? Is it in the Promise thread in the GA forum? Why hasn't it been told? 

[buttock]

On 12/8/2023 at 8:03 AM, MatterEaterLad said:

I wish more people would talk about the provenance of these books. Yes, there's a compelling story behind it, but that's not the full story. There are dealers who know this is a collection that was assembled from different places, including a storage unit find. 

Who are these dealers who "know" this?  

[mjoeyoung]

All the books in last nights auction were from one person's collection, Robert Ben Garant.

On 12/8/2023 at 8:03 AM, Stefan_W said:

They bought at the worst time to buy and are unloading at what is arguably the worst time to sell. Not really a recipe for solid investment results. 

That is the question:  is now the "worst" time to sell, or will things get even worse?  

[MatterEaterLad]

On 12/8/2023 at 9:13 AM, Chip Cataldo said:

Can you tell the full story? Is it in the Promise thread in the GA forum? Why hasn't it been told? 

I'm guessing it was never told out of...professional courtesy? Not wanting to fall out of the good graces of Hertiage/CGC? I'm not sure.

I talked to a dealer (speak up if you're reading this, but I don't think he's on these boards) who claimed to have sold a few of the books that ended up in the Promise Collection. 

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/8/2023 at 9:02 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

So, what are the estimates on the Curator ASM #1?

$2M

$3M

>$3M

A Curator copy of ASM #6 9.8 sold for $71K in 2013, which was about 5X the 9.6 value.  The last sales of ASM #1 9.6 were $336K in 2022 and $520K in July 2023 so 5X multiplier equals $1.68M to $2.6M.  I would see anything close to $2M being a big disappointment.  I'm going to guess $3.8M.

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/8/2023 at 12:06 PM, MatterEaterLad said:

I'm guessing it was never told out of...professional courtesy? Not wanting to fall out of the good graces of Hertiage/CGC? I'm not sure.

I talked to a dealer (speak up if you're reading this, but I don't think he's on these boards) who claimed to have sold a few of the books that ended up in the Promise Collection. 

Interesting.  Has the family of the original owner ever said anything publicly about the collection?  The story pulls at the heartstrings.  Supposedly, the OO died in combat when he was 21 and left over 5000 comics.  If he started collecting when he was 10, that would be purchasing about 450 to 500 a year?  Even if he started getting them at 5, that is over 300 a year!  When I first heard about this collection I thought it was going to be a few hundred books, tops.

I don't know if anybody has an interest in MTG cards, but ComicLink had a hype page for their recent auction in which they quote the head  grader of CGC trading cards stating that one of the cards was worth "probably $150,000."  It sold for $38.5K.

[VintageComics]

On 12/7/2023 at 8:13 PM, Chip Cataldo said:

Why did people buy this stoopit predigree again? Every picture I've seen on the forum has been in a slab with a higher number than it should be.

Why didn't people put their money into something more stable as far as a CGC graded book? Surely if you knew about the Promise Collection to begin with you knew there were better avenues for your money.

There was a lot of buzz on that collection. It was pumped really hard. The story behind the collection was touching, the grades the books got were extremely high, and when people tried to discuss the grades the discussion was hampered. It was just a really popular Pedigree and public excitement took over. Plus, it was selling at the peak of the pandemic asset bubble, so everything lined up against the buyers. It was perfect storm. 

[buttock]

On 12/8/2023 at 12:06 PM, MatterEaterLad said:

I'm guessing it was never told out of...professional courtesy? Not wanting to fall out of the good graces of Hertiage/CGC? I'm not sure.

I talked to a dealer (speak up if you're reading this, but I don't think he's on these boards) who claimed to have sold a few of the books that ended up in the Promise Collection. 

I'd bet a large amount that this isn't true.  

[buttock]

On 12/8/2023 at 1:30 PM, VintageComics said:

There was a lot of buzz on that collection. It was pumped really hard. The story behind the collection was touching, the grades the books got were extremely high, and when people tried to discuss the grades the discussion was hampered. It was just a really popular Pedigree and public excitement took over. Plus, it was selling at the peak of the pandemic asset bubble, so everything lined up against the buyers. It was perfect storm. 

There were also some pretty amazing books that hadn't been seen in those grades/availability in forever.  The Timelys in particular stand out.  You can talk about different elements that went into the books going for crazy prices, but the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of the ~5000 books haven't turned back up because they ended up in terminal collections.  They were special.  

[VintageComics]

On 12/8/2023 at 3:53 PM, buttock said:

There were also some pretty amazing books that hadn't been seen in those grades/availability in forever.  The Timelys in particular stand out.  You can talk about different elements that went into the books going for crazy prices, but the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of the ~5000 books haven't turned back up because they ended up in terminal collections.  They were special.  

Those are all fair points...for a guy talking out if his buttock. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by VintageComics

[mjoeyoung]

On 12/8/2023 at 1:53 PM, buttock said:

There were also some pretty amazing books that hadn't been seen in those grades/availability in forever.  The Timelys in particular stand out.  You can talk about different elements that went into the books going for crazy prices, but the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of the ~5000 books haven't turned back up because they ended up in terminal collections.  They were special.  

Or maybe it is because people don't want to lose 10s of thousands of dollars?  Since 2021, 290 Promise Collection books have been sold for a loss of over $1M, not including the $240K loss from last night.

[VintageComics]

On 12/8/2023 at 4:12 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Or maybe it is because people don't want to lose 10s of thousands of dollars?  Since 2021, 290 Promise Collection books have been sold for a loss of over $1M, not including the $240K loss from last night.

I wouldn't worry too much about the people losing money. It was their choice to spend it in the first place. 

I don't think anyone had a gun to their heads forcing them to bid.

Some people buy things to gamble, some to upgrade and some because they have lots of money don't know what to do with it (as I know for a fact some buyers have).

As a society, we try to shield too many people from the dumb things they do when they're worrying about it without our input. It's sad, but it's also important to remember that it's reality. You can't shield anyone from reality. 

[buttock]

On 12/8/2023 at 2:12 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Or maybe it is because people don't want to lose 10s of thousands of dollars?  Since 2021, 290 Promise Collection books have been sold for a loss of over $1M, not including the $240K loss from last night.

290/5000 is 5.8%.  So 94.2% haven't been resold.  I know a bunch of people who bought Promise books, and none of them bought for a flip.  Anyone choosing not to sell for fear of loss is ignoring the whole concept of opportunity cost, but that's a really bold assumption when the more likely thing is that -- as is true for MOST purchases -- people bought the comics because they want them, not to resell them.  Do you really think that most people bought these for a flip?  Do you think that's true for most auction sales?  What's the evidence that that's the case?