How do I value a comic book? 0

[khoo75]

My friends asked me to create a video on how to value a comic book.  This is my take on it.  I hope it is helpful to you.  And, if you are a comic book veteran, please share your advice. 

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

"Rarity" doesn't matter if there is no demand for the "rare" item.

[khoo75]

25 minutes ago, Angel of Death said:

"Rarity" doesn't matter if there is no demand for the "rare" item.

No doubt and good point.  Many rare golden age books aren't worth that much.  That being said, all other things being equal, rarity will increase value.  

[theCapraAegagrus]

4 minutes ago, khoo75 said:

That being said, all other things being equal, rarity will increase value.  

What would comprise "all other things"?

[ThothAmon]

Fun video and well done. I’d agree with much of what you said in terms of how to analyze prices. Pretty wishful thinking on the Seven Seas imho.  Of course Angel of Death is correct that without demand rarity is inconsequential. However the same could be said for the inverse. Oxygen is an extreme example of what I’m talking about. 

[ThothAmon]

One more thought. If a book rarely changes hand price discovery is difficult. Speculators hate this as they are momentum driven.  As a result rarer books are much less likely to suffer huge losses when the asset bubble bursts.  

[KCOComics]

1 hour ago, khoo75 said:

My friends asked me to create a video on how to value a comic book.  This is my take on it.  I hope it is helpful to you.  And, if you are a comic book veteran, please share your advice. 

 

I watched the entire thing. 

Honestly, that was really thorough and I appreciate the work you put into it.  Very well put together and it's clear. There are so many factors for a new collector to consider that I can see this being a useful resource. 

Feedback:

1.)  I agree with others that rarity doesn't = valuable. You did touch on this when you talk about bringing the 3 factors together to determine value, so I don't think it's a glaring omission.

Maybe including an example of supper rare Western GA that no one wants would be illustrative. 

2.) You put your elbow on the Avengers 1!!! I couldn't take my eyes off that!!! Oh wait, it was a UK edition, nevermind, carry on. 

3.) I could do with slightly more cowbell! Matt Baker and AF15 are deserving of cowbell moments everytime they are mentioned

 

Great video and great books! Thanks for sharing! 

 

[khoo75]

53 minutes ago, Angel of Death said:

What would comprise "all other things"?

Sure. Happy to elaborate. In this context of holding all other things equal, I'm referring to the other two factors (notability and condition).  Let's take Action Comics 1 and Amazing Fantasy 15 for example (sky high notability).  And, let's say we were to look at a 5.0 copy of each (same condition).  

• Similar demand/notability (really tough to equate these exactly)
• Same grade
• Huge difference in rarity: Action 1 far rarer than AF15.

That's why an Action 1 at a 5.0 would approach a million dollars while an AF 15 at 5.0 would be in the 50k range.

I conceptualize all three factors this way.  Every combination -- of hold two constant, and raise the other -- works this way.

 

[theCapraAegagrus]

8 minutes ago, khoo75 said:

Sure. Happy to elaborate. In this context of holding all other things equal, I'm referring to the other two factors (notability and condition).  Let's take Action Comics 1 and Amazing Fantasy 15 for example (sky high notability).  And, let's say we were to look at a 5.0 copy of each (same condition).  

• Similar demand/notability (really tough to equate these exactly)
• Same grade
• Huge difference in rarity: Action 1 far rarer than AF15.

That's why an Action 1 at a 5.0 would approach a million dollars while an AF 15 at 5.0 would be in the 50k range.

I conceptualize all three factors this way.  Every combination -- of hold two constant, and raise the other -- works this way.

So not "all other things", just the other 2 from your video?

[khoo75]

2 hours ago, ThothAmon said:

Fun video and well done. I’d agree with much of what you said in terms of how to analyze prices. Pretty wishful thinking on the Seven Seas imho.  Of course Angel of Death is correct that without demand rarity is inconsequential. However the same could be said for the inverse. Oxygen is an extreme example of what I’m talking about. 

Thanks for the kind words ThothAmon! 

Nice oxygen analogy too.  

Agree that my valuing of Seven Seas is on the optimistic side.  A 4.5 sold for $9900 a couple years ago.  I think a 6.5 would likely hit in the 15k to 20k range if sold today :-)   But, as you said, it's so tough to discover the prices of rare books.  

For my sake, I sure hope golden age books are more bubble resistant :-) 

 

 

[khoo75]

2 hours ago, KCOComics said:

I watched the entire thing. 

Honestly, that was really thorough and I appreciate the work you put into it.  Very well put together and it's clear. There are so many factors for a new collector to consider that I can see this being a useful resource. 

Feedback:

1.)  I agree with others that rarity doesn't = valuable. You did touch on this when you talk about bringing the 3 factors together to determine value, so I don't think it's a glaring omission.

Maybe including an example of supper rare Western GA that no one wants would be illustrative. 

2.) You put your elbow on the Avengers 1!!! I couldn't take my eyes off that!!! Oh wait, it was a UK edition, nevermind, carry on. 

3.) I could do with slightly more cowbell! Matt Baker and AF15 are deserving of cowbell moments everytime they are mentioned

 

Great video and great books! Thanks for sharing! 

 

I appreciate the feedback KCO comics!

Agree that a counter example might be nice, a golden age book no one cares about. I love your dismissal of the UK Avengers 1 

[revat]

2 hours ago, Angel of Death said:

So not "all other things", just the other 2 from your video?

Yah comic people always think we’re just talking about comics that people at least kind of want or have heard of or have some value for some reason to someone.  
 

but people often forget to distinguish that subset from the other 99.99% of comics that literally no one wants for any reason in any condition at any rarity (or honestly I would say ‘perceived rarity’).  So for literally 99.99% of comics rarity is not at all a factor.  

[Deadpoolica]

4 hours ago, Angel of Death said:

So not "all other things", just the other 2 from your video?

I came here just to read your comments  

I knew you'd be all over this  

[rakehell]

21 hours ago, KCOComics said:

You put your elbow on the Avengers 1!!! I couldn't take my eyes off that!!! Oh wait, it was a UK edition, nevermind, carry on. 

Nitpicking alert! UK Pence Price Variant, thank you very much. 

19 hours ago, khoo75 said:

I love your dismissal of the UK Avengers 1

Interesting note about rarity - the UK pence portion of the original print runs are estimated at anywhere between 2 & 10%.

Title Avengers Issue No. 1 Issue Date 9/63 Year 1963 Publisher Marvel Comics Country   Key Comments Origin & 1st appearance of the Avengers., Fantastic Four, Loki &, Teen Brigade appearance. Art Comments Stan Lee story, Jack Kirby & Ayers cover & art

Country/Variant -   Grade Universal Qualified Signature Series Restored See Detail   Total Mint   10.0 0 0 0 0   0 Mint   9.9 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint/Mint   9.8 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint +   9.6 5 0 0 1   6 Near Mint   9.4 11 0 0 0   11 Near Mint -   9.2 14 0 0 4   18 Very Fine/Near Mint   9.0 20 0 2 9   31 Very Fine +   8.5 45 0 3 16   64 Very Fine   8.0 49 1 5 16   71 Very Fine -   7.5 76 0 10 25   111 Fine/Very Fine   7.0 124 4 8 23   159 Fine +   6.5 143 0 6 38   187 Fine   6.0 149 3 18 47   217 Fine -   5.5 152 3 21 33   209 Very Good/Fine   5.0 248 6 26 56   336 Very Good +   4.5 289 7 43 47   386 Very Good   4.0 357 7 50 66   480 Very Good -   3.5 319 8 55 61   443 Good/Very Good   3.0 384 6 59 66   515 Good +   2.5 260 3 51 44   358 Good   2.0 201 1 40 36   278 Good -   1.8 117 1 28 18   164 Fair/Good   1.5 138 1 27 22   188 Fair   1.0 90 5 23 19   137 Poor   0.5 96 4 26 27   153   Total 3287 60 501 674   4522 Country/Variant United Kingdom - U.K. Price Variant   Grade Universal Qualified Signature Series Restored See Detail   Total Mint   10.0 0 0 0 0   0 Mint   9.9 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint/Mint   9.8 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint +   9.6 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint   9.4 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint -   9.2 0 0 0 0   0 Very Fine/Near Mint   9.0 0 0 0 0   0 Very Fine +   8.5 1 0 0 0   1 Very Fine   8.0 1 0 0 0   1 Very Fine -   7.5 4 0 0 0   4 Fine/Very Fine   7.0 3 0 0 0   3 Fine +   6.5 3 0 0 0   3 Fine   6.0 1 0 0 0   1 Fine -   5.5 5 0 0 0   5 Very Good/Fine   5.0 0 0 2 0   2 Very Good +   4.5 5 1 0 0   6 Very Good   4.0 8 1 1 2   12 Very Good -   3.5 12 0 0 0   12 Good/Very Good   3.0 1 0 0 1   2 Good +   2.5 7 0 2 0   9 Good   2.0 5 0 1 0   6 Good -   1.8 2 0 0 2   4 Fair/Good   1.5 2 0 0 1   3 Fair   1.0 0 0 1 0   1 Poor   0.5 1 0 0 1   2   Total 61 2 7 7   77

 

Based on the census, the UK Pence Price Variant represents 1.7% of the total graded by CGC.

Value-wise, you're pretty close -

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/AVENGERS-1-CGC-3-5-Marvel-Comic-1st-Avengers-Thor-Hulk-Iron-Man-Ant-Man-Wasp-/254970782140?hash=item3b5d7161bc%3Ag%3Agz8AAOSwPudglPil&nma=true&si=BqRvFTFTGUyQCg1bZmm4xe58ydk%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

£1995 x 1.4 current exchange rate = $2793. Based on the scarcity of the UKPPV compared to the US cents standard, this should have a 0 on the end. But the market doesn't value this particular scarcity. It's starting to, but...

Loads of market discussion nearer to the end of this thread.

Still, good video. Very thorough & entertaining. 

 

 

[Get Marwood & I]

21 hours ago, khoo75 said:

I love your dismissal of the UK Avengers 1 

That's the spirit!

[Glassman10]

this leaves out the critical factor of how well it was hidden from Mom. 

[khoo75]

20 hours ago, rakehell said:

Nitpicking alert! UK Pence Price Variant, thank you very much. 

Interesting note about rarity - the UK pence portion of the original print runs are estimated at anywhere between 2 & 10%.

Title Avengers Issue No. 1 Issue Date 9/63 Year 1963 Publisher Marvel Comics Country   Key Comments Origin & 1st appearance of the Avengers., Fantastic Four, Loki &, Teen Brigade appearance. Art Comments Stan Lee story, Jack Kirby & Ayers cover & art

Country/Variant -   Grade Universal Qualified Signature Series Restored See Detail   Total Mint   10.0 0 0 0 0   0 Mint   9.9 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint/Mint   9.8 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint +   9.6 5 0 0 1   6 Near Mint   9.4 11 0 0 0   11 Near Mint -   9.2 14 0 0 4   18 Very Fine/Near Mint   9.0 20 0 2 9   31 Very Fine +   8.5 45 0 3 16   64 Very Fine   8.0 49 1 5 16   71 Very Fine -   7.5 76 0 10 25   111 Fine/Very Fine   7.0 124 4 8 23   159 Fine +   6.5 143 0 6 38   187 Fine   6.0 149 3 18 47   217 Fine -   5.5 152 3 21 33   209 Very Good/Fine   5.0 248 6 26 56   336 Very Good +   4.5 289 7 43 47   386 Very Good   4.0 357 7 50 66   480 Very Good -   3.5 319 8 55 61   443 Good/Very Good   3.0 384 6 59 66   515 Good +   2.5 260 3 51 44   358 Good   2.0 201 1 40 36   278 Good -   1.8 117 1 28 18   164 Fair/Good   1.5 138 1 27 22   188 Fair   1.0 90 5 23 19   137 Poor   0.5 96 4 26 27   153   Total 3287 60 501 674   4522 Country/Variant United Kingdom - U.K. Price Variant   Grade Universal Qualified Signature Series Restored See Detail   Total Mint   10.0 0 0 0 0   0 Mint   9.9 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint/Mint   9.8 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint +   9.6 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint   9.4 0 0 0 0   0 Near Mint -   9.2 0 0 0 0   0 Very Fine/Near Mint   9.0 0 0 0 0   0 Very Fine +   8.5 1 0 0 0   1 Very Fine   8.0 1 0 0 0   1 Very Fine -   7.5 4 0 0 0   4 Fine/Very Fine   7.0 3 0 0 0   3 Fine +   6.5 3 0 0 0   3 Fine   6.0 1 0 0 0   1 Fine -   5.5 5 0 0 0   5 Very Good/Fine   5.0 0 0 2 0   2 Very Good +   4.5 5 1 0 0   6 Very Good   4.0 8 1 1 2   12 Very Good -   3.5 12 0 0 0   12 Good/Very Good   3.0 1 0 0 1   2 Good +   2.5 7 0 2 0   9 Good   2.0 5 0 1 0   6 Good -   1.8 2 0 0 2   4 Fair/Good   1.5 2 0 0 1   3 Fair   1.0 0 0 1 0   1 Poor   0.5 1 0 0 1   2   Total 61 2 7 7   77

 

Based on the census, the UK Pence Price Variant represents 1.7% of the total graded by CGC.

Value-wise, you're pretty close -

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/AVENGERS-1-CGC-3-5-Marvel-Comic-1st-Avengers-Thor-Hulk-Iron-Man-Ant-Man-Wasp-/254970782140?hash=item3b5d7161bc%3Ag%3Agz8AAOSwPudglPil&nma=true&si=BqRvFTFTGUyQCg1bZmm4xe58ydk%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

£1995 x 1.4 current exchange rate = $2793. Based on the scarcity of the UKPPV compared to the US cents standard, this should have a 0 on the end. But the market doesn't value this particular scarcity. It's starting to, but...

Loads of market discussion nearer to the end of this thread.

Still, good video. Very thorough & entertaining. 

 

 

Rakehell.  Thanks for the thoughtful post, and appreciate your sharing the Marvel UK Price Variant thread.  I'm looking forward to digging in. 

[khoo75]

19 hours ago, Get Marwood & I said:

That's the spirit!

For the record, I do love my pence copy of Avengers 1 

[khoo75]

On 5/25/2021 at 10:06 AM, Angel of Death said:

So not "all other things", just the other 2 from your video?

 

1.  The concept of "all other things being equal" is used frequently in statistics and economics. Google it. It's a shorthand way of conceptually trying to isolate the effect of a particular variable on another (in our context the isolated effect of rarity on comic book price). In my example to you, I listed the two most salient factors that need to be held constant (notability and condition) to think about the relationship between rarity and price. I'm guessing you know this but are just giving me a hard time.  

2.  If you think my video and comments are not as good as you could do them, I invite you (or anyone) to create your own video tutorial on how to value comic books.  I promise I will treat you with more respect than you've treated me.  [Side note: For all those folks who have given feedback and criticism in a constructive spirit.  Thank you.  Truly appreciated.] 

[theCapraAegagrus]

5 minutes ago, khoo75 said:

1.  The concept of "all other things being equal" is used frequently in statistics and economics. Google it. It's a shorthand way of conceptually trying to isolate the effect of a particular variable on another (in our context the isolated effect of rarity on comic book price). In my example to you, I listed the two most salient factors that need to be held constant (notability and condition) to think about the relationship between rarity and price. I'm guessing you know this but are just giving me a hard time.  

2.  If you think my video and comments are not as good as you could do them, I invite you (or anyone) to create your own video tutorial on how to value comic books.  I promise I will treat you with more respect than you've treated me.  [Side note: For all those folks who have given feedback and criticism in a constructive spirit.  Thank you.  Truly appreciated.] 

Thanks for the condescension, but I'm already well-aware of what "all other things being equal" means. Your response confirmed that you don't mean "all" variables.

The suggestion that I have not respected you is completely bogus. Why are you victimizing yourself...?

Edited May 27, 2021 by Angel of Death